Strategic Positioning: Week 34

Monday, August 24, 2026. WEEK 34 OPENS. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI at $85.42-$85.66 as of Aug 24 (intraday or close); one live update $84.97 spot with range $84.89-$86.15. Aug 21 futures close ~$87.06; spot/futures references ~$86.34-$86.76 (one source lists $86.66-$86.76). Aug 20 futures close ~$86.83; other references ~$85.97-$87.83. Aug 23 ~$85.79-$86.02 (daily range examples: low ~$85.78, high ~$86.14 or $86.56). Aug 19 ~$84.08-$84.39. Aug 18 ~$84.06-$84.38. Aug 17 ~$84.01-$84.50. Aug 14 ~$81.53-$82.40. GuruFocus oil price (WTI futures proxy) on/around Aug 21 $86.76 (down ~1.22% from prior day). YCharts WTI spot (Aug 20) $89.75 (noted as potentially higher/outlier vs. other benchmarks). Twelve Data WTI/USD (Aug 24 close example) ~$84.97. FRED/EIA WTI spot references (weekly/daily, e.g., around mid-August) ~$83.99-$86.48. Broader trend Prices notably higher than year-ago levels (~+35% YoY in some reports). General trend Futures closes tended to be in high $86s earlier in period before easing; spot prices often bit lower. NATURAL GAS UPDATE: Aug 18 (latest available daily spot) $2.82. Aug 17 $2.77. Aug 14 $2.79. Aug 13 $2.82. Aug 12 $2.82. CME Henry Hub Natural Gas futures (e.g., prompt-month contracts) around Aug 21-23, 2026 Settlements or last prices in ~$2.75-$2.76 range, with modest daily changes. Broader 2026 forecasts (EIA STEO) Project annual average around $3.44/MMBtu, with Q3 2026 averaging near $2.87. Note EIA releases daily spot price data with lag (typically updated mid-week for prior period); next release expected around Aug 26; no trading on weekends. STRAIT OF HORMUZ SHIPPING: Aug 21 US officials reported ~40 oil tankers carrying ~16 million barrels of crude transited southern channel. Aug 21-22 overnight Windward intelligence noted 9 vessels transited southern corridor "dark" (7 inbound, 2 outbound)—largest single-night count on record at time. Aug 21 Windward recorded 5 vessels transiting (including Panama-flagged product tanker, sanctioned LPG carrier, others; mix of AIS-visible and dark). Aug 22 One analysis contrasted ~36 vessels (per broader or prior-day data) with sharp drop next day. Aug 23 Commercial AIS data showed only 7 total vessels entering or exiting (4 inbound, 3 outbound), with no dedicated oil tankers among them—mostly general cargo, bulk carriers, tugs, Iranian "other" vessels (specific examples RAMA 3, AL WATHBA, AL DAHABI, smaller Iranian craft). Broader early-to-mid August context (Aug 1-19) 236 total ships transited (~12 per day vs. ~130 pre-war norm); 112 were oil/gas tankers, with most using unconfirmed/dark routes. US military "stealth" operations (ongoing into August) Reportedly enabled 15-20 tankers per night via southern channel in recent weeks, supporting millions of barrels oil movement despite restrictions. Overall August trend Volumes remained low (e.g., month-to-date averages around 12 or fewer commodity vessels/day per Kpler; further drops noted mid-month due to tensions). Live trackers (as of ~Aug 23-24) Some dashboards showed strait effectively closed or at 0.4-1.7% of normal throughput (e.g., 1 ship or minimal DWT in 24h periods), with heavy reliance on facilitated or dark movements. Persistent factors High war-risk insurance, attacks/incidents, Iranian threats, competing US/Iran claims over control continued to suppress open commercial tanker traffic. Pre-crisis baseline Roughly 60-140 vessels per day. THE READ: Crude WTI $85.42-$85.66 Aug 24, intraday or close, live update $84.97 spot, range $84.89-$86.15; Aug 21 futures close $87.06, spot/futures $86.34-$86.76; Aug 20 futures $86.83, references $85.97-$87.83; Aug 23 $85.79-$86.02, low $85.78, high $86.14 or $86.56; Aug 19 $84.08-$84.39; Aug 18 $84.06-$84.38; Aug 17 $84.01-$84.50; Aug 14 $81.53-$82.40; GuruFocus $86.76 down 1.22%; YCharts $89.75 potentially higher/outlier; Twelve Data $84.97; FRED EIA $83.99-$86.48; notably higher year-ago, +35% YoY; futures high $86s earlier, easing, spot often lower. Gas Aug 18 $2.82, Aug 17 $2.77, Aug 14 $2.79, Aug 13 $2.82, Aug 12 $2.82; CME Henry Hub futures Aug 21-23 $2.75-$2.76, modest daily changes; EIA STEO annual average $3.44/MMBtu, Q3 2026 near $2.87; EIA releases daily spot data with lag, typically mid-week, next around Aug 26, no weekend trading. Hormuz Aug 21 US officials 40 oil tankers, 16M barrels crude, southern channel; Aug 21-22 overnight Windward 9 vessels southern corridor dark, 7 inbound 2 outbound, largest single-night record; Aug 21 Windward 5 vessels, Panama-flagged product tanker, sanctioned LPG carrier, others, AIS-visible and dark; Aug 22 36 vessels prior-day data, sharp drop next day; Aug 23 commercial AIS 7 total vessels, 4 inbound 3 outbound, no dedicated oil tankers, general cargo bulk carriers tugs Iranian other, RAMA 3, AL WATHBA, AL DAHABI, smaller Iranian; Aug 1-19 236 total ships, 12 per day vs. 130 pre-war, 112 oil/gas tankers, unconfirmed/dark routes; US military stealth operations 15-20 tankers per night southern channel recent weeks, millions barrels oil movement despite restrictions; August trend volumes low, 12 or fewer commodity vessels/day Kpler, further drops mid-month tensions; live trackers Aug 23-24 effectively closed or 0.4-1.7% normal throughput, 1 ship or minimal DWT 24h periods, facilitated/dark movements; high war-risk insurance, attacks/incidents, Iranian threats, competing US/Iran claims control, suppressed open commercial tanker traffic; pre-crisis 60-140 vessels per day. Capital preservation first. Trade the data, not the headlines.

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