Technicals: Week 41

Tuesday, October 13, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS. WTI Oct 12-13: Range $91.30-$93.68 (intraday ~2% volatility), close ~$91.85. SUPPORT: $90 (critical uptrend/psychological), $88.77-$88.75, $86.30-$86.89, ~$85. RESISTANCE: $91.18-$93.61 (immediate testing), $93.54-$95, $96-$97.41. PATTERNS: Triangle compression near $91.40, breakout potential higher. Short-term mixed-downtrend (sellers at resistance), broader uptrend intact. Elliott Wave bullish structure above $86.20 targeting $105+. MA: Bullish (price above 5/10/20/50/100/200-day). RSI: 53-70 neutral-overbought, buys present. MACD: Positive/Buy. Stochastic/Williams %R: Overbought spots, reversal risk if extended. Overall: Strong buy/neutral bullish pressure. FUNDAMENTALS: Gulf of Mexico hurricane supply impacts persisting (hundreds rigs offline, partial recovery). Strait of Hormuz AIS transits ~9/day vs 85 pre-crisis (geopolitical risk premium intact). Refinery crude inputs rose to ~16.5M bbl/d (92.7% utilization, up 223k bpd). SETUP: Short bias sell near $91-$93 targeting lower supports, SL $92+. Long bias buy breaks above resistance or holds above $90 uptrend, target $105+ if support holds, SL below $85. Volatility from overnight/tanker attacks/US-Iran/US midterms (Nov 13). NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS. Henry Hub Oct 12: Spot ~$3.145/MMBtu (intraday ~$3.16-$3.20 range). NYMEX Nov 2026 contract ~$3.17-$3.20. SUPPORT: $3.00 (key round), $2.90-$2.95, $2.80, ~$2.60 (Apr 2026 low). RESISTANCE: $3.20-$3.30, $3.40-$3.50, ~$3.90 (Dec 2026 futures). FUTURES CURVE: Oct spot ~$3.15, Nov ~$3.17-$3.20, Dec ~$3.51, Winter strip ~$3.39 (slight contango, modest winter premium). TREND: Consolidation at $3 level neutral. Longer-term downtrend from Jan peak $7.72 intact, YTD down ~13%. MA: Mixed (above 5/10-day, testing 20/50-day). Intermediate weakness, support holding, momentum waning. RSI: 40-55 neutral-slightly oversold. MACD: Flattening-slightly negative. Stochastic: Oversold spots, bounce risk. Overall: Neutral-slightly bearish, bounce potential. FUNDAMENTALS: Storage build continuing. Oct forecast ~328 Bcf build. End-Oct storage ~3,850 Bcf (2% above 5-yr avg). Heating mild: HDD forecast ~3,150 (3% below 10-yr avg), low heating demand. Production strong: US dry gas ~112.2 Bcf/d, LNG exports ~17.6-18 Bcf/d. SETUP: Short bias sell near $3.30 targeting $3, SL $3.50. Long bias buy bounces $2.90-$3.00 on oversold, target $3.30, SL $2.80. Volatility low, mild winter reduces seasonal spike. WEEK 41 SUMMARY: WTI $91.85 (Oct 12), support $90 critical/$88.75/$86.30, resistance $91.18-$93.61/$93.54-$95/$96-$97.41. Triangle compression near $91.40, upside breakout potential. Short-term mixed, broader uptrend intact. Elliott bullish $86.20+ target $105+. MA bullish, RSI 53-70 overbought spots, MACD positive, oscillators overbought (reversal risk extended). Strong buy/neutral. Gulf supply impacts, Strait risk premium. Henry Hub $3.145, support $3/$2.90-$2.95/$2.80, resistance $3.20-$3.30/$3.40-$3.50. Consolidation neutral, longer-term downtrend Jan $7.72 peak YTD -13% intact. MA mixed, RSI 40-55 oversold, MACD negative, stochastic oversold (bounce risk). Neutral-slightly bearish. Storage building 328 Bcf Oct, ~3,850 Bcf end-Oct (2% above avg). Heating mild HDD ~3,150. Production strong 112.2 Bcf/d, LNG 17.6-18 Bcf/d. Oil supported Gulf supply/geopolitical risk, gas weak mild weather/ample storage. Watch Strait Hormuz oil support/breakout. Monitor US midterms Nov 13 crude premium risk. Winter weather Dec key gas upside. No peak demand Q4 forecast.

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