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Speaker: Welcome to Honest Money.

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I'm your host, Anja, and today's
episode is brought to you by hard block.

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Anja: Joining me today is James Lavish.

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Uh, most of you'll know him, but for those
who don't, uh, he's a chartered financial

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analyst and a Reform hedge fund manager.

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Welcome to the Honest Money James.

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James: Well, thank you for having me,
Anja, and uh, I appreciate you having me

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on and look forward to talking to you.

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Anja: Yeah, I appreciate you coming on.

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Obviously, you know, it matters
a lot to smaller, you know,

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podcasters to have big names.

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So I really, really appreciate you, uh,
putting time aside and I'm very excited

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because I reached out to the community to
ask some questions and obviously people

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have a lot of macro questions for you now.

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So maybe let's start with gold and silver.

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What is driving this surge?

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James: Good lord.

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Did you see it today?

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So gold over the last, uh, 20 hours has
gone basically, um, since yesterday.

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Yesterday morning it went from
5,200 all the way up to 5,600

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all the way back down to 5,100.

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I mean, uh, this is like meme
stock activity, you know?

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I've

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Anja: never seen anything
like this in my life.

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James: Yeah, it's, it's, uh, it's crazy.

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Silver's doing the same thing.

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Marched up to one 20 all the way back to
a hundred back, and now it's up to 1 0 5.

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Um, they're trying to find some levels
here and, uh, so what is going on?

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Well, we're seeing, uh, the, you know,
clear evidence of the world is rushing

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into what's called the Debasement trade,
and that is something I just wrote about.

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Uh, I just wrote a paper about it.

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So we will put a link up, uh, in
the show that people can go find it.

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But, uh, so.

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I did that with, with, uh, Unchained
Capital, but, so, you know, what

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is that the Debasement trade?

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You, you may have heard
Ray Dalio talk about it.

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You may have heard people like, uh,
Stanley Druckenmiller talk about it.

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Um, some of the biggest, uh,
investors in the world are, they're,

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they're making it known that, uh.

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Investors have a risk.

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And that risk is that they, whatever
their, their investment is and, and

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if it's denominated in US dollars,
solely, like if you're in cash or if

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you're in, uh, short-term treasure that
are not paying you enough, um, then I.

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You're at risk of having your,
um, your assets inflated away.

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And it's basically, there's the,
the debasement is that the US has

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so much debt and, um, the debt
is piling on top of debt That.

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This requires more and more and
more and more fiscal spending.

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And because of that, interest
rates are just going, they're

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going to stay perpetually high.

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Um, we may have a drawdown, you
know, in a, in some sort of flight

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to safety to US treasuries, but
that would be short-lived because.

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The US Treasury has little choice
but to print money on you to keep up

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with this, they have to print money
in order to, um, do exactly what

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Japan has been doing for decades now.

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And that's to, um, make sure
that we can meet our expenses.

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And, you know, this is the US government
is, they're the ones who are spending,

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um, just, uh, in insane amounts of money.

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But when you look at it structurally,
the problem is that we have

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mandatory expenses, and then
you have discretionary expenses.

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And the mandatory expenses are
things like social security,

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Medicare, medicaid, you know, they're
not, they're not up for debate.

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Uh, we're going to continue to pay those.

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And because of the structure of, of
social security, it's not like you and I

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paying into Social Security for decades.

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Then they take that money along the way,
they invest it and make sure that they

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have enough money to pay us back later.

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No, what they do is they spend it and
then they, they just continue to tax

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more and really just borrow more in
order to meet those, um, all of those

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obligations to people who are retiring
now who had been paying in for decades.

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And so, um, this all
gets us to the point of.

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We have a problem and
it's the entire world.

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It's not just the us, it's the entire
world Is, uh, who the, any, um, any

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country that is on a fiat standard,
meaning they are, uh, they issue debt and

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in a currency they can debase, they will
debase that currency in order to, uh,

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make sure they meet their obligations.

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And so that just means that
the, the currency gets worth

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less and less and less.

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And so, you know, if you had a
hundred dollars in the bank in 2020,

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according to the official estimates,
that's worth 75 cents now to you.

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So it went down in value.

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And especially if you held it in something
like a, a Citi Citibank or a, you know,

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a Chase or Wells Fargo 'cause they don't
give you interest on your deposits.

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If you just left it there, it melts away.

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And that is the easiest way to
understand that this inflation means

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that the the dollars are getting worse.

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They're getting worth
less and less and less.

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It's not that your home is worth more,
it's not that gold is worth more.

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It's not that Bitcoin or any other
thing is worth more, it's that the, the

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dollar is worth less and it requires
more dollars to buy those things.

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And so, and that's called
the debasement trade.

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And we're seeing, so in essence, what
we're seeing in these metals is this

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rush from primarily central banks and
large institutions to go buy some gold.

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As a starter to, uh, you know,
protect themselves against this

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debasement of the currency.

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And then on top of it, you've got
things like silver and copper and

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platinum, which have strong utility
in this, in, in the world for, for

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certain, uh, manufacturing processes.

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So things like, uh, solar panels,
uh, EV batteries where they're

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making silver solid state batteries.

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Now, um, the circuitry that goes into the
chips that are, uh, that are necessary

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for all this, uh, ramp up in ai.

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Um, and then copper, the same thing.

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You've got this rush towards those,
but what has happened is it's just been

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a feeding frenzy and they, they're,
they're moving almost in a parabolic

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nature, uh, which is pretty surprising to
somebody, uh, who's been investing for.

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Decades for over three decades now.

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This, these moves are, are, um,
you know, this is not normal.

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And, uh, and it's a strong signal that
something is breaking in the system.

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And I would argue that, that
something is just the sheer amount

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of borrowing and debt in the
world and it's kind of coming due.

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And this all comes all the way back around
to what, what I said in the beginning was.

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Japan started this decades ago, and we're
starting to see those, you know, those

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chickens come home to roost from, from
that modern monetary theory playbook.

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And it's a problem for them, and it
may cause problems around the world

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when they get, when, now that they're
cornered, they've painted themselves

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into such a tight corner that it, it
may cause problems for everybody else.

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Anja: Yeah, I've got so many
different directions I wanna

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take this conversation in, but

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James: the problem is you asked me
one question, I might just talk for

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10 minutes, so please interrupt me.

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I

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Anja: mean, that's great.

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That's exactly what I want.

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But yeah, like I feel like at the
moment there's a lot of emotions in

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the market and yesterday I was having
coffee with one of my girlfriends

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and we were kind of tracking.

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Gold and silver prices last year, and
I hadn't even looked at it again until

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yesterday and it just keeps going up.

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And my girlfriend was like, should I
have diversified into gold and silver?

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Like you?

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It's, it's,

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James: and that's a tip off when
you have typical everyday people who

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are not investors start asking you.

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And I, I was getting, I've been
getting text messages from friends, you

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know, they're not investors, they're
professionals, and they're like,

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Hey, should I be buying silver here?

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And this is when silver was at $112.

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I'm like, you know, that's just a, it's
a signal that, okay, you're starting

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to get this FOMO feeling out there
that this is something that I need

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to get, get involved in, you know?

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But really what it comes down to,
Anja, and this is why you're gonna

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get these questions, and everybody
knows they have a sense about it.

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They, they know that everything
is going up in price.

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They don't typically the person
that your typical person doesn't

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understand why it's not their fault.

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You're not taught this in schools.

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You're not taught in high school, college.

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You're not even taught,
taught about it properly.

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In business school.

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You're just not.

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And so your typical person
just sees the prices go up.

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They feel their wages are not keeping
up with them, or they lag so much that

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they're not keeping up, and then they're
lied to about the actual inflation.

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They hear the fed say something.

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It's printed in the paper.

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It's on the news that, oh, inflation
was two and a half percent this year.

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That's absolute nonsense.

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You know it.

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I know it, everybody knows it.

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That that's, that's just nonsense.

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And the part of the problem is
they're not measuring things like

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in, in real life and the way they
categorize and, and weight things.

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You're not seeing that insurance is
up so dramatically, whether it's home

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insurance or car insurance or health
insurance, it's up so dramatically that

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it completely wipes out any conversation
about where inflation really is.

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And so, but they feel that, and
so that puts them in a position.

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This is what's so insidious about
this whole system and this is what

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frustrates me and I try to teach
people about so they can understand it.

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'cause we're not gonna change it.

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Not yet, but they can understand
the system and that is that.

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You are forced as a worker to go out
and take the hard earned money that

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you've made, find a way to budget
in a way that you've got a surplus.

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So you can take some of that and put
it away and put it in in investments.

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But here's the insidious part about it.

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You can't just put cash in the
bank 'cause of what I just said.

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It'll melt away.

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If you have, if you had a dollar that
you put in, in, let's say you put a

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hundred dollars in the bank in, in 1971.

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It would be effectively worth
about $12 now, 12 or $13.

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That's it.

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That's all it's worth.

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Speaker 2: Quick one for the Aussies
listening hard block is offering

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a $10 signup discount right now.

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And if you're with another
exchange, ask yourself this.

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Are they Australia's longest
running Bitcoin only exchange?

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00:11:00,274 --> 00:11:02,704
Because if not, maybe it's time to switch.

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Head to hard block.com au slash
join slash Honest Money and

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start stacking stats today.

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James: And so it forces us to take
risk, to go out and take risk in

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the markets, to buy things that
we may or may not know about.

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The s and p, you know, the Mag seven
stocks, Nvidia buying Bitcoin, buying

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gold, buying silver, buying anything.

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Buying anything that you can protect
yourselves against this inflation.

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It's insidious because then you take
the risk and then your reward for

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being right and doing well on that, you
get taxed on the gains on that risk.

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So it's, it's a, it's a,
it's stacked against people.

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They feel it, they're frustrated by it.

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And that's why we get these, these, you
know, text messages and, and emails.

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It's like, Hey, should
I be involved in this?

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'cause everybody, it's not necessarily,
people are looking for a lottery ticket.

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They're just trying to keep up, you know?

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But then on the other side of
it, when you see these fomo,

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parabolic price, you know, rises.

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Well, that's when, that's when you've
got people who are out on the risk curve

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and just looking for that lottery ticket.

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Just gimme something, gimme something.

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And so, and that's kind of where we're at.

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And, uh, so that's, that's
causing all of this angst and,

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and these crazy price moves.

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Anja: Yeah.

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It, yeah.

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I, this, I guess while we're here.

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Um, but on the Debasement trade,
um, you know, that obviously was

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the theme of 2025, and we can
assume it's going to continue to

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be for the remainder of this year.

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Um, but do you see the US
dollar sliding further?

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And if so, what?

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Where do you see the US dollar
Index in a year from now?

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James: That's a good question.

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You know, um, you, you heard, um, you
heard Trump say that he's not worried

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about the, the, the dollar and, and
the reality is that a weaker dollar,

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00:13:06,824 --> 00:13:09,159
it, it helps us with exports, you know.

223
00:13:09,669 --> 00:13:19,089
Um, and, uh, so he's, he, the, the issue
here though is that investors buy bonds.

224
00:13:19,494 --> 00:13:26,034
Okay, and they buy these bonds, the US
treasuries, they hold them, and then later

225
00:13:26,034 --> 00:13:31,374
on, if the dollar is worth less, they get
dollars for those bonds when they mature.

226
00:13:32,109 --> 00:13:34,779
So if the dollar gets weaker,
it's not so great for them.

227
00:13:35,229 --> 00:13:39,879
So on the other side of it, you've
got the new treasury secretary,

228
00:13:39,879 --> 00:13:41,949
Scott Bessant saying, oh, no, no.

229
00:13:41,949 --> 00:13:43,299
We care about the strength of the dollar.

230
00:13:43,299 --> 00:13:44,169
We do care about it.

231
00:13:44,169 --> 00:13:46,569
But in reality, they don't,
they don't really care about it.

232
00:13:47,319 --> 00:13:49,059
So where do I see the dollar going?

233
00:13:49,059 --> 00:13:52,449
It's really hard to say, you know,
that may be a function of what?

234
00:13:52,479 --> 00:13:58,419
What kind of, um, agreements,
global agreements, geopolitical, uh,

235
00:13:58,569 --> 00:14:04,179
geopolitically driven agreements on buying
oil around the world are structured in,

236
00:14:04,179 --> 00:14:05,799
are they structured in dollars or not?

237
00:14:06,129 --> 00:14:08,469
And we're seeing countries
move away from that.

238
00:14:08,469 --> 00:14:13,179
So I don't expect the dollar to
get back to the levels that we

239
00:14:13,179 --> 00:14:16,209
saw it, you know, back in, in.

240
00:14:16,839 --> 00:14:20,949
Twenty two, a hundred fourteen,
you know, or earlier than that.

241
00:14:20,949 --> 00:14:25,329
Like if you go back to the, back to
the eighties, I mean, the dollar index

242
00:14:25,329 --> 00:14:27,489
was, it was up in the one fifties.

243
00:14:27,999 --> 00:14:29,739
So do I expect it to get there?

244
00:14:29,739 --> 00:14:30,429
I don't.

245
00:14:30,519 --> 00:14:35,949
Um, so, but again, it really
depends on, on, on other currencies.

246
00:14:36,009 --> 00:14:40,179
And it depends on, on the
failure of other currencies.

247
00:14:41,019 --> 00:14:44,289
Does Japan pull through this
somehow in the next 10 years?

248
00:14:44,409 --> 00:14:45,099
I don't know.

249
00:14:45,699 --> 00:14:48,279
They are in a very, very tough position.

250
00:14:48,819 --> 00:14:51,729
And the reason they're in that tough
position is because they've been

251
00:14:51,729 --> 00:14:58,839
printing money just, uh, hand over
fist for, uh, for years and years now.

252
00:14:59,709 --> 00:15:01,929
And what they've been doing
is they've been holding their

253
00:15:01,929 --> 00:15:04,659
interest rates down artificially.

254
00:15:05,014 --> 00:15:09,189
So what happened, which is part of
what you and I were talking about a

255
00:15:09,189 --> 00:15:11,349
little bit before the show about Japan.

256
00:15:11,349 --> 00:15:12,489
Well, what happened in Japan?

257
00:15:13,239 --> 00:15:17,949
Well, we saw something called the carry
trade start to blow up last year, uh, or

258
00:15:17,949 --> 00:15:20,859
a little over a year ago in August of 24.

259
00:15:21,639 --> 00:15:26,829
And so, um, and what happened was, you
know, you had interest rates rise to a

260
00:15:26,829 --> 00:15:31,899
point that it's in, in Japan, that it
started getting some traders offside.

261
00:15:32,019 --> 00:15:33,849
Well, what, what's going on in Japan?

262
00:15:35,589 --> 00:15:38,619
Because Japan keeps their
interest rates so low.

263
00:15:39,129 --> 00:15:40,869
It's, it's effectively been.

264
00:15:42,024 --> 00:15:46,044
Almost free money for the rest of the
world for years and years and years

265
00:15:46,044 --> 00:15:48,624
and years where you could borrow yen.

266
00:15:48,684 --> 00:15:49,704
How do you do that?

267
00:15:50,184 --> 00:15:56,574
Well, you can, you can
short the jbs, right?

268
00:15:57,054 --> 00:15:59,814
Which are, which had interest
rates down near zero.

269
00:16:00,444 --> 00:16:05,964
And you're, so what you're doing is
you're, you're, you're getting yen for

270
00:16:05,964 --> 00:16:08,369
that, and then you're turning around.

271
00:16:09,294 --> 00:16:12,774
And buying dollars with that yen.

272
00:16:12,804 --> 00:16:17,724
So you're turning into dollars and
or Euros or anything else, and you're

273
00:16:17,724 --> 00:16:19,524
going and buying risk assets for that.

274
00:16:19,524 --> 00:16:25,224
So you're basically borrowing
money for, for almost nothing.

275
00:16:25,674 --> 00:16:29,664
And so that's, and that's
been happening for many years.

276
00:16:30,294 --> 00:16:33,234
And the way, so how do they do that?

277
00:16:33,234 --> 00:16:35,364
Well, they're printing money
and buying their own bonds.

278
00:16:36,084 --> 00:16:39,264
In order to keep that, keep
that whole charade going.

279
00:16:39,324 --> 00:16:39,864
Okay.

280
00:16:40,344 --> 00:16:46,404
And so, because they want to keep
those interest rates low and, and keep,

281
00:16:46,494 --> 00:16:50,934
you know, try to get their economy
going by keeping interest rates low.

282
00:16:51,474 --> 00:16:53,514
Well, that all ended and.

283
00:16:54,339 --> 00:17:01,119
If now that the, the Japanese government,
they, they own over 50%, right?

284
00:17:01,119 --> 00:17:02,619
About 50% of their bonds.

285
00:17:02,619 --> 00:17:03,879
Now, it used to be over 50%.

286
00:17:03,879 --> 00:17:08,229
It's about 47 or eight 48% now, of
all jbs of all government bonds.

287
00:17:08,649 --> 00:17:11,859
They, the, the government itself
is the largest holder of them.

288
00:17:12,519 --> 00:17:14,109
There's something
structurally wrong with that.

289
00:17:14,799 --> 00:17:16,809
The world is waking up to it and
they're saying, you know what?

290
00:17:17,169 --> 00:17:21,579
We need to be paid more for the risk
of holding these long-term bonds.

291
00:17:22,089 --> 00:17:22,779
And so.

292
00:17:23,499 --> 00:17:24,939
The buyers moved away.

293
00:17:25,389 --> 00:17:30,939
And so now you, you saw the, the
10 year, the 20 year, the 40 year

294
00:17:30,999 --> 00:17:37,539
Japanese, um, JGB spike up over
4% for the first time in decades.

295
00:17:37,629 --> 00:17:40,929
I mean, the, it was, and it
was a violent move, and so.

296
00:17:42,174 --> 00:17:46,284
And that has, has come to the attention
of many investors around the world

297
00:17:46,284 --> 00:17:50,454
that, hey, the free, the, the free
money system in Japan is over.

298
00:17:50,814 --> 00:17:53,604
And that's causing some angst.

299
00:17:53,604 --> 00:17:56,484
And people are wondering are, are
risk assets not gonna sell off?

300
00:17:56,484 --> 00:18:01,074
Because people now have to
reshore those, those dollars back

301
00:18:01,074 --> 00:18:02,389
into Yen or wherever they are.

302
00:18:03,234 --> 00:18:07,674
In order to, uh, in order to settle out
some of those trades, and now you're

303
00:18:07,674 --> 00:18:13,044
seeing Japanese investors, institutions
saying, well, why am I gonna go take risk

304
00:18:13,044 --> 00:18:17,784
on the dollar, you know, uh, the US dollar
and buying US treasuries when I can just

305
00:18:17,784 --> 00:18:22,944
buy JBS now and I can buy the JBS and get
a good, good return and have it based in

306
00:18:22,944 --> 00:18:26,604
the yen, which is what my, my liabilities
are in if I'm a pension fund out there.

307
00:18:26,874 --> 00:18:27,924
Those are my liabilities.

308
00:18:28,239 --> 00:18:32,169
Why would I go and, uh, you
know, offshore my, my investment.

309
00:18:32,169 --> 00:18:34,209
I'll just keep it here now
that I can get a return here.

310
00:18:34,209 --> 00:18:38,589
So it's all playing into this
and it's making the entire

311
00:18:38,589 --> 00:18:39,819
world a little bit nervous.

312
00:18:40,809 --> 00:18:46,509
And then finally, the, the other, the
other part of this whole situation has

313
00:18:46,509 --> 00:18:48,819
to, again, with geopolitical risks.

314
00:18:49,599 --> 00:18:52,659
So if you're, if you're
a country out there.

315
00:18:53,694 --> 00:19:00,444
And you're a central bank and you
watched the, the US government make

316
00:19:00,444 --> 00:19:07,014
their catastrophic trading mistake,
their catastrophic treasury mistake.

317
00:19:07,884 --> 00:19:15,354
Unfortunately, back when Biden froze the
Russian assets and seized their treasuries

318
00:19:15,354 --> 00:19:19,374
and then kicked them off the Swift
network, that basically just signaled to

319
00:19:19,374 --> 00:19:23,934
the world that, hey, look, if you're not
in, you know, complete agreement with

320
00:19:23,934 --> 00:19:26,934
the United States, if you do something
we don't want you to do, if you're not

321
00:19:27,204 --> 00:19:31,704
a really tight partner with us, well we
may take those treasuries away from you.

322
00:19:32,424 --> 00:19:33,684
How stupid was that?

323
00:19:34,104 --> 00:19:36,144
Because we need the world
to buy our treasuries.

324
00:19:36,234 --> 00:19:38,364
We're running multi-trillion
dollar deficits.

325
00:19:38,784 --> 00:19:43,074
We literally need the world to buy
these treasuries so we can continue

326
00:19:43,074 --> 00:19:48,999
funding, funding our trillion
dollar per year defense machine.

327
00:19:49,389 --> 00:19:54,249
And yet at the same time, now you've got
central banks around the world buying

328
00:19:54,249 --> 00:19:57,639
more gold than they have in many years.

329
00:19:58,059 --> 00:20:04,819
And so now they're buying a thousand
tons on average per year, which is.

330
00:20:05,874 --> 00:20:10,674
Mindboggling, it used to be 500 and
they expect to continue to do it.

331
00:20:10,734 --> 00:20:14,964
And, and that's, that's part of the issue
is that they don't wanna own treasuries.

332
00:20:15,414 --> 00:20:19,314
They don't want to own something they,
they can see as being debased that's been

333
00:20:19,314 --> 00:20:22,614
downgraded by all three ratings agencies.

334
00:20:23,064 --> 00:20:24,204
They don't wanna hold those.

335
00:20:24,414 --> 00:20:26,664
Why would they, that's risky to them.

336
00:20:26,784 --> 00:20:31,884
They'd rather hold something that's hard
money that can't be debased like gold.

337
00:20:32,154 --> 00:20:33,354
And we're seeing it in real time.

338
00:20:35,664 --> 00:20:37,809
Anja: So as this unwind picks up.

339
00:20:38,439 --> 00:20:40,689
Which we pretty much
all expect that it will.

340
00:20:40,989 --> 00:20:46,329
Do you see any big entities and
sovereigns at risk or even potentially

341
00:20:46,329 --> 00:20:47,829
standing to gain from this?

342
00:20:47,919 --> 00:20:50,829
James: Well, I mean, uh,
this all takes time, right?

343
00:20:50,829 --> 00:20:54,309
It's to have, um, a, a currency blow up.

344
00:20:54,309 --> 00:20:57,489
It's a, that's a monumental,
um, you know, event.

345
00:20:57,489 --> 00:21:02,259
That's a, that's a, that's a large
event, so it's hard to say what, what

346
00:21:02,259 --> 00:21:03,789
would tip something like that off.

347
00:21:04,329 --> 00:21:05,294
But I can say that.

348
00:21:06,279 --> 00:21:10,269
We're always walking this edge, and
the reason we're always walking this

349
00:21:10,269 --> 00:21:17,529
edge is because the entire world is, is
levered and in, in this crazy debt, um,

350
00:21:17,619 --> 00:21:22,899
you know, based monetary system where
we're borrowing so much from the future

351
00:21:22,899 --> 00:21:30,414
that, you know, if, if one country,
one massive company, if they get off

352
00:21:30,414 --> 00:21:35,334
sides, it could tip off what we call
contagion and spread across the world.

353
00:21:35,664 --> 00:21:41,694
And that's something that we experienced
in full back in 2008, 2010, during

354
00:21:41,724 --> 00:21:45,834
the great financial crisis, and
that started in the housing market.

355
00:21:46,164 --> 00:21:48,834
But this has been kicked
up to the sovereign level.

356
00:21:49,224 --> 00:21:50,724
That's what happened back then.

357
00:21:51,414 --> 00:21:55,974
They took all that risk off the bank
sheets and all of that contagion,

358
00:21:55,974 --> 00:22:01,614
and they, they consolidated it
onto the central bank sheets and to

359
00:22:01,614 --> 00:22:02,964
their, and to their balance sheets.

360
00:22:02,964 --> 00:22:05,874
And now that's why you've got all
of these central banks offsides

361
00:22:05,874 --> 00:22:07,824
and we're running massive deficits.

362
00:22:07,824 --> 00:22:11,334
That just can't be stopped right now
because we, we borrowed so much money.

363
00:22:11,904 --> 00:22:13,704
Anja: I have a speculative question.

364
00:22:14,724 --> 00:22:19,764
Well, a lot of these are, but like if
there was to, uh, be a crack in the system

365
00:22:19,764 --> 00:22:24,594
somewhere and then every, like Domino's,
just countries kind of follow suit, do

366
00:22:24,594 --> 00:22:26,394
you think it would be bigger than the GFC?

367
00:22:27,669 --> 00:22:29,559
If, if something were to crack now,

368
00:22:30,339 --> 00:22:37,479
James: well that's the problem is that
mathematically it has to be because back

369
00:22:37,479 --> 00:22:41,769
in the great financial crisis we, we,
we printed about a a trillion dollars

370
00:22:42,249 --> 00:22:50,199
in order to save the, the US banking
system and to avoid a, a, a global

371
00:22:50,829 --> 00:22:53,679
meltdown of the global financial markets.

372
00:22:54,579 --> 00:22:56,109
Fast forward to 2020.

373
00:22:56,964 --> 00:23:01,914
We had our lockdowns and we did not
need to print this much, but they did.

374
00:23:02,094 --> 00:23:03,924
They printed $5 trillion.

375
00:23:03,929 --> 00:23:06,234
The the Fed printed $5 trillion.

376
00:23:06,234 --> 00:23:10,614
Which brings us around to your
question about Powell and his stance

377
00:23:10,614 --> 00:23:12,504
and the stuff he's been saying.

378
00:23:12,504 --> 00:23:12,594
Well.

379
00:23:15,054 --> 00:23:17,514
I mean, where do I even start with this?

380
00:23:17,694 --> 00:23:21,234
What, what a monumental mistake that was.

381
00:23:21,594 --> 00:23:27,774
So all this bluster you heard about, oh,
you know, inflation's just transitory.

382
00:23:27,774 --> 00:23:29,604
It's because of supply chain issues.

383
00:23:29,604 --> 00:23:30,864
It's 'cause we've been in lockdowns.

384
00:23:30,864 --> 00:23:34,879
People need goods that we don't, that we
didn't expect they would need Nonsense.

385
00:23:35,519 --> 00:23:37,259
Absolute nonsense.

386
00:23:37,709 --> 00:23:40,889
The reason that prices went up
and we had inflation over 9% in

387
00:23:40,889 --> 00:23:43,829
the United States is because they
printed 5 trillion F-ing dollars.

388
00:23:44,219 --> 00:23:46,709
That's why, that's the, that's the reason.

389
00:23:47,164 --> 00:23:51,599
It, it first principles, if there's more
money chasing the same amount of goods,

390
00:23:51,959 --> 00:23:53,459
the goods are gonna go up in price.

391
00:23:53,729 --> 00:23:54,089
Period.

392
00:23:54,089 --> 00:23:55,649
End of story.

393
00:23:55,679 --> 00:23:57,629
Stop arguing about this.

394
00:23:57,749 --> 00:24:01,619
It's just, it, it's just,
it's simple economics.

395
00:24:01,679 --> 00:24:01,889
Okay.

396
00:24:02,729 --> 00:24:03,089
Oh.

397
00:24:03,879 --> 00:24:09,219
Now you print 1 trillion, then you
print 5 trillion, and you try to get

398
00:24:09,219 --> 00:24:11,349
those, the 5 trillion off your books.

399
00:24:11,919 --> 00:24:14,469
They, they've gotten about a trillion off.

400
00:24:14,979 --> 00:24:19,329
And you know, the Fed
assets are as of today.

401
00:24:19,539 --> 00:24:26,289
I mean, if I, if I just pull up Fred and
where the Fed assets are as of today,

402
00:24:26,649 --> 00:24:30,784
they're still sitting at $6.59 trillion.

403
00:24:31,554 --> 00:24:33,534
So almost $6.6 trillion.

404
00:24:34,134 --> 00:24:36,474
Okay, so they got, they got it down.

405
00:24:37,989 --> 00:24:41,199
They got it down from
8.9 to 6.9, so apologies.

406
00:24:41,199 --> 00:24:44,799
They, they, they got 2 trillion
off my, it's been a long week.

407
00:24:45,129 --> 00:24:46,929
Um, but that's it.

408
00:24:47,259 --> 00:24:51,369
They stopped QE or qt quantitative
tightening, meaning they stopped

409
00:24:51,369 --> 00:24:52,479
selling these in the market.

410
00:24:52,719 --> 00:24:53,229
It's over.

411
00:24:53,229 --> 00:24:55,419
They're now, they're
gonna go, go back to qe.

412
00:24:55,839 --> 00:25:01,089
What we're doing now is QE light,
which is buying short-term treasuries.

413
00:25:01,689 --> 00:25:03,699
Uh, the Fed is out there
buying short-term treasuries.

414
00:25:03,699 --> 00:25:06,969
They, they, they call, they say it's
not qe because technically it's not,

415
00:25:06,969 --> 00:25:10,959
you're not buying long-term treasuries
and dumping cash into the system.

416
00:25:11,319 --> 00:25:16,029
What you're doing is you're, you're
adding cash to, to bank reserve

417
00:25:16,029 --> 00:25:20,559
balances, which they're trying to shore
up so they don't have a, a crisis, um,

418
00:25:20,619 --> 00:25:22,179
um, you know, in the banking system.

419
00:25:22,794 --> 00:25:24,294
We can talk about that in a minute.

420
00:25:24,294 --> 00:25:28,524
It's a, it's a repo system, but, and
we've seen that before, but let's

421
00:25:28,524 --> 00:25:30,834
go back to your original question.

422
00:25:31,404 --> 00:25:35,874
Would they need to, would, would this be
bigger than the great financial crisis?

423
00:25:36,534 --> 00:25:41,814
And depending on what the, what
the event is or what it could

424
00:25:41,814 --> 00:25:43,914
be, the answer is absolutely.

425
00:25:44,364 --> 00:25:48,444
And just mathematically you can
just see it, you know, um, if

426
00:25:48,444 --> 00:25:50,364
you look at the chart of where.

427
00:25:50,799 --> 00:25:55,689
The where the Fed balances were and then
where they went in the great financial

428
00:25:55,689 --> 00:26:01,329
crisis, and then the next hump, and
where they went in the, in the, um, the

429
00:26:01,449 --> 00:26:06,069
COVID, you know, money printer go Burr.

430
00:26:06,729 --> 00:26:10,479
And then you, you just look at it,
it's just gonna be a factor of that.

431
00:26:11,889 --> 00:26:12,999
So what happened?

432
00:26:14,109 --> 00:26:18,519
Well, here's, there's just so many
issues here with where Powell is and

433
00:26:18,519 --> 00:26:19,984
what, what he's saying to the market.

434
00:26:21,189 --> 00:26:29,709
And you know, Powell is trying as hard
as he possibly can to protect his legacy.

435
00:26:29,889 --> 00:26:31,029
And what do I mean by that?

436
00:26:31,059 --> 00:26:35,859
Well, you know, he's trying to be the
guy who engineered a soft landing.

437
00:26:35,859 --> 00:26:39,219
So when he leaves office, everybody
remembers, wow, what a great guy.

438
00:26:39,219 --> 00:26:40,449
He engineered a soft landing.

439
00:26:40,449 --> 00:26:41,559
They don't remember that.

440
00:26:41,979 --> 00:26:42,879
What an idiot.

441
00:26:42,879 --> 00:26:44,529
He printed $5 trillion.

442
00:26:44,559 --> 00:26:45,489
What was he thinking?

443
00:26:45,939 --> 00:26:46,449
You know?

444
00:26:46,899 --> 00:26:49,059
So that's what he's trying to reverse.

445
00:26:50,244 --> 00:26:53,214
The reality is he made a huge mistake.

446
00:26:53,394 --> 00:26:57,474
And, you know, it's easy for me
to sit here and, um, backseat

447
00:26:57,474 --> 00:26:59,874
driver to, uh, to criticize it.

448
00:26:59,874 --> 00:27:05,574
But he, you, you know, this is not,
this is something they've seen before

449
00:27:05,574 --> 00:27:07,524
in, in, you know, different measures.

450
00:27:08,469 --> 00:27:13,029
And you know, he's working with
Janet Yellen, who used to be the

451
00:27:13,029 --> 00:27:14,979
fair, the, the, the Fed chair.

452
00:27:15,249 --> 00:27:19,869
She knew better and they, they
made a number of mistakes here.

453
00:27:20,559 --> 00:27:23,379
First mistake printing $5 trillion.

454
00:27:23,619 --> 00:27:25,059
Well, actually, let's back up.

455
00:27:25,719 --> 00:27:30,729
The first mistake was Janet
Yellen didn't term out the debt.

456
00:27:31,269 --> 00:27:32,169
What do I mean by that?

457
00:27:32,919 --> 00:27:35,619
I mean, she didn't, she
didn't start issuing.

458
00:27:36,279 --> 00:27:42,129
10 year, 20 year, 30 year treasuries
back when interest rates were down around

459
00:27:42,399 --> 00:27:48,039
half a percent and she could have gotten
away with really low interest rates.

460
00:27:48,039 --> 00:27:50,619
Long-term borrowing for the United States.

461
00:27:51,009 --> 00:27:55,059
No, she was, she didn't
move out on the curve.

462
00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:58,689
She stayed right where they were
and kept issuing more T-bills.

463
00:27:59,574 --> 00:28:04,224
And so that means that those mature
pretty quickly, and every time

464
00:28:04,224 --> 00:28:05,724
they mature, you gotta reissue 'em.

465
00:28:05,724 --> 00:28:06,834
And where do you reissue 'em?

466
00:28:06,834 --> 00:28:09,804
You're issuing them like right
above the Fed funds rate.

467
00:28:10,644 --> 00:28:13,164
Well, then Powell goes and,
and prints all that money.

468
00:28:13,164 --> 00:28:14,274
She's not doing anything.

469
00:28:14,664 --> 00:28:15,984
He's printing all this money.

470
00:28:15,984 --> 00:28:17,094
She didn't do anything.

471
00:28:18,894 --> 00:28:20,754
Lo and behold, what happens?

472
00:28:20,754 --> 00:28:23,334
You get to a 9% plus inflation rate.

473
00:28:24,279 --> 00:28:27,789
The Fed starts panicking and they
then they start jacking rates up

474
00:28:27,789 --> 00:28:32,799
at a, a pace that we hadn't, we
haven't seen, at least in my career,

475
00:28:32,799 --> 00:28:34,149
I hadn't seen in a very long time.

476
00:28:35,049 --> 00:28:38,799
And so they're jacking rates
up and what does that do?

477
00:28:39,039 --> 00:28:45,849
It causes the, the, the interest
expenses of the treasury to skyrocket.

478
00:28:47,139 --> 00:28:48,339
So she missed her shot.

479
00:28:48,789 --> 00:28:52,539
That was the first, those were like a,
just a series of mistakes that they made.

480
00:28:53,409 --> 00:28:59,439
And so during the last election period,
you heard Scott Besant, the treasury,

481
00:28:59,439 --> 00:29:03,189
the new treasury sector, come out and
say she should have turned out the debt.

482
00:29:03,189 --> 00:29:05,979
She should have turned out the
debt and really criticizing her.

483
00:29:07,269 --> 00:29:11,859
Well, he was expecting, as
we all were, that the Fed was

484
00:29:11,859 --> 00:29:13,029
gonna start lowering rates.

485
00:29:13,029 --> 00:29:13,389
Why?

486
00:29:13,389 --> 00:29:19,794
Well, they lowered rates twice before
biden WA before Trump was elected before

487
00:29:19,794 --> 00:29:24,714
that election, trying to come out and
say, oh no, we conquered inflation.

488
00:29:24,714 --> 00:29:25,434
Everything's good.

489
00:29:25,434 --> 00:29:27,864
We're gonna start lowering
rates and you know, get to

490
00:29:27,864 --> 00:29:29,394
where we feel is a neutral rate.

491
00:29:29,514 --> 00:29:30,594
And then they just stopped.

492
00:29:30,714 --> 00:29:33,804
Trump won and they stopped and they
said, no, we're not lowering rates again.

493
00:29:34,569 --> 00:29:36,399
And so that was kind of what, why.

494
00:29:36,429 --> 00:29:36,969
Okay.

495
00:29:37,479 --> 00:29:40,419
And so you've seen some weird
things going on in the market.

496
00:29:40,419 --> 00:29:44,739
You then we had the, the tariffs and
there's just been a lot of noise in the

497
00:29:44,739 --> 00:29:50,529
markets, but there's no question that the
economy is slowing down for most people.

498
00:29:50,589 --> 00:29:53,949
That's another thing that we can
get into about the the, there's two

499
00:29:53,949 --> 00:29:58,809
economies going on, but essentially
going back to Powell first, he's

500
00:29:58,809 --> 00:30:03,609
looking at this and he's saying, I
want to go out with a legacy that.

501
00:30:04,314 --> 00:30:05,184
I did great.

502
00:30:05,784 --> 00:30:07,914
We've conquered inflation,
everything's good.

503
00:30:08,544 --> 00:30:11,784
The, you know, the economy is
strong and he's only got a few

504
00:30:11,784 --> 00:30:13,164
more months left here on you.

505
00:30:13,164 --> 00:30:14,694
And then he's done, his term is over.

506
00:30:14,934 --> 00:30:16,614
So that's what he wants to,
he wants to hand it off.

507
00:30:17,454 --> 00:30:20,184
Well, um, here's the issue.

508
00:30:20,904 --> 00:30:23,334
The issue is we do have a khap economy.

509
00:30:23,394 --> 00:30:24,174
And what is that?

510
00:30:24,474 --> 00:30:29,544
That means there's, there's two separate,
um, there's two separate consumers.

511
00:30:29,949 --> 00:30:33,879
In this nation, you know, and
two separate demographics.

512
00:30:34,209 --> 00:30:37,599
One that is doing very well
because they're asset owners.

513
00:30:38,109 --> 00:30:39,699
Their assets have risen in value.

514
00:30:39,729 --> 00:30:40,179
Why?

515
00:30:40,359 --> 00:30:42,009
Because they printed
so much fucking money.

516
00:30:42,579 --> 00:30:45,489
And then you've got the other
half, uh, not the other half.

517
00:30:45,489 --> 00:30:46,629
You've got 90% of people.

518
00:30:46,629 --> 00:30:51,429
That's like the top 10%, maybe
top 20, but closer to top 10 is

519
00:30:51,429 --> 00:30:54,039
really the, that's, that's where
most of the spending is going on.

520
00:30:54,249 --> 00:30:56,019
Then the rest of the nation is struggling.

521
00:30:56,319 --> 00:30:57,159
Why are they struggling?

522
00:30:57,729 --> 00:31:02,649
Well, their, because their
wages took so long to catch up

523
00:31:02,979 --> 00:31:05,289
that they can't spend anymore.

524
00:31:05,379 --> 00:31:08,919
They've been spending and spending
and spending on insurance, on rent,

525
00:31:09,249 --> 00:31:12,789
on cars, on gas, on food, on eggs.

526
00:31:12,789 --> 00:31:15,999
Like it, like everything is more
expensive, far more expensive

527
00:31:16,389 --> 00:31:18,544
than, um, anybody expected it.

528
00:31:19,734 --> 00:31:23,304
So they've been struggling to keep
up and they don't have assets.

529
00:31:23,634 --> 00:31:25,284
And so you've got two economies going on.

530
00:31:25,464 --> 00:31:28,404
If you talk to any normal person out
there, they're like, yeah, it's not, it's,

531
00:31:28,464 --> 00:31:30,144
this has not been a great period for me.

532
00:31:30,624 --> 00:31:35,004
You know, any normal person, you
know, you go out and talk to the,

533
00:31:35,214 --> 00:31:38,784
you know, the, the billionaires like,
yeah, it's great, you know, we got ai.

534
00:31:38,784 --> 00:31:40,764
It's, uh, things are going great.

535
00:31:41,079 --> 00:31:41,369
Anja: Yeah.

536
00:31:41,374 --> 00:31:43,614
James: You know, I don't like
the, the California taxes.

537
00:31:43,644 --> 00:31:46,464
I'm gonna move to Las
Vegas, or, you know, Austin.

538
00:31:46,464 --> 00:31:48,114
But other than that, life's good.

539
00:31:48,684 --> 00:31:51,594
You know, but it's a completely
different world out there for the, for

540
00:31:51,774 --> 00:31:53,784
the, the two different demographics.

541
00:31:55,194 --> 00:31:59,814
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542
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543
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544
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545
00:32:14,874 --> 00:32:15,924
James: And so that's frustrating.

546
00:32:16,674 --> 00:32:20,544
And it's, and it's uh, you know, on, on
one hand it looks like everything's great.

547
00:32:20,544 --> 00:32:24,294
On the other hand, you know, you've
got people who are struggling and

548
00:32:25,314 --> 00:32:27,564
again, you have to own assets.

549
00:32:27,594 --> 00:32:31,044
'cause right back to the debasement
trade, goes right back to it and

550
00:32:31,044 --> 00:32:34,554
goes right back to the, the money
is broken, it's absolutely broken.

551
00:32:34,974 --> 00:32:35,904
And because of.

552
00:32:36,654 --> 00:32:41,004
The Cantillon effect, which I, I also
wrote all about in my newsletter recently.

553
00:32:41,004 --> 00:32:44,814
People can write, they, they can
read about because of that, what's

554
00:32:44,814 --> 00:32:46,134
called the Cantillon Effect.

555
00:32:47,004 --> 00:32:51,894
You know, he, he who is closest to
the money spigot benefits the most.

556
00:32:52,254 --> 00:32:53,574
It means where they print the money.

557
00:32:53,994 --> 00:32:57,804
If you're close to that, if you're
a congressman and you can get and

558
00:32:57,804 --> 00:33:02,214
share of those, you know, those
special loans that were forgiven

559
00:33:02,214 --> 00:33:05,154
during COVID or you're a banker.

560
00:33:05,754 --> 00:33:10,104
And, you know, or you're, uh, an
asset owner, a a, you know, a large

561
00:33:10,104 --> 00:33:14,094
company, A-A-C-E-O or something
get, can get credit pretty easily.

562
00:33:14,634 --> 00:33:16,044
You're close to the money spigot.

563
00:33:16,044 --> 00:33:21,834
You can, you can go out and you can do
very well and go and buy up assets and

564
00:33:21,834 --> 00:33:24,924
have them rise before other people.

565
00:33:25,044 --> 00:33:31,104
And then it trickles down very
slowly and sometimes barely makes

566
00:33:31,104 --> 00:33:32,664
it down to the bottom level at all.

567
00:33:33,204 --> 00:33:37,254
And so the people at the bottom who
are not near this spigot, the, you

568
00:33:37,254 --> 00:33:42,624
know, the wage earners, not the asset
owners, they're getting hurt by it.

569
00:33:42,714 --> 00:33:46,674
And that Cantillon effect has, has,
has, has really done a number on the

570
00:33:46,674 --> 00:33:51,654
us And what it has done is it's created
an economy that looks so much more,

571
00:33:52,074 --> 00:33:56,814
it looks much more like one of the
legacy Latin American co economies

572
00:33:56,814 --> 00:34:02,634
that I used to study about back
in, uh, when I was at Yale in 1993.

573
00:34:03,879 --> 00:34:05,079
That's what this looks like.

574
00:34:05,079 --> 00:34:09,339
Now, the, the separation of wealth is
astounding and it's only gonna continue.

575
00:34:10,659 --> 00:34:12,759
Anja: He's done a number
in Australia as well.

576
00:34:12,759 --> 00:34:17,439
So my family came here in 1997 and
I remember, you know, the average

577
00:34:17,619 --> 00:34:21,009
person, the average Australian
back then lived quite well, like

578
00:34:21,009 --> 00:34:22,899
a, you know, upper middle class.

579
00:34:23,019 --> 00:34:23,079
Yeah.

580
00:34:23,259 --> 00:34:24,729
That is no longer the case.

581
00:34:24,789 --> 00:34:26,319
That is no longer the case.

582
00:34:26,469 --> 00:34:28,809
James: How many people did you
know when I was growing up?

583
00:34:29,949 --> 00:34:31,659
A handful of my friend's moms worked.

584
00:34:32,454 --> 00:34:33,114
A handful.

585
00:34:33,534 --> 00:34:34,644
Most of them didn't work.

586
00:34:34,644 --> 00:34:38,304
And we were, we were, we
were firmly middle class.

587
00:34:38,304 --> 00:34:40,284
We had to climb up there
over a number of years.

588
00:34:40,284 --> 00:34:41,544
Like I did not grow up wealthy.

589
00:34:41,544 --> 00:34:43,824
We were just firmly middle class.

590
00:34:43,854 --> 00:34:44,364
Okay.

591
00:34:44,814 --> 00:34:48,924
Um, you know, and eventually
my mom had to start working.

592
00:34:49,254 --> 00:34:53,334
It was just, it was just too expensive
while I was, when I got to about 10 or 12

593
00:34:53,334 --> 00:34:55,164
years old, my mom was working full time.

594
00:34:55,689 --> 00:35:01,959
Before that, before, you know,
and this all started in 1971, when

595
00:35:01,959 --> 00:35:06,459
Nixon took us off the gold standard
for good, closed the gold window,

596
00:35:06,969 --> 00:35:08,169
and then they could just print.

597
00:35:09,264 --> 00:35:10,854
You know, add infinitum.

598
00:35:11,244 --> 00:35:15,414
And they started to, and by 1980
we started feeling the effects.

599
00:35:15,414 --> 00:35:18,894
So I was born back in, uh, you know, 70.

600
00:35:18,954 --> 00:35:22,974
And by, by the time I was 10
years old, we started feeling the

601
00:35:22,974 --> 00:35:28,344
effects hard, you know, and, uh,
the 1980 was a brutal time for us.

602
00:35:28,704 --> 00:35:33,234
And I'm, and you know, you weren't
alive then, but you, it was not

603
00:35:33,234 --> 00:35:34,614
great for your country either.

604
00:35:34,704 --> 00:35:36,384
So it was pretty rough.

605
00:35:36,719 --> 00:35:39,659
And, uh, but think about that.

606
00:35:39,989 --> 00:35:44,489
There's no way you, like, I don't How
many people do you know who, who, whose

607
00:35:44,939 --> 00:35:46,889
family are not double wage earners now?

608
00:35:46,949 --> 00:35:47,549
Anja: Not many.

609
00:35:48,389 --> 00:35:48,779
James: Not many.

610
00:35:48,954 --> 00:35:49,574
Anja: Not many at

611
00:35:49,574 --> 00:35:49,614
James: all.

612
00:35:49,614 --> 00:35:49,634
Not many.

613
00:35:49,634 --> 00:35:49,644
Yeah.

614
00:35:50,309 --> 00:35:51,569
Yeah, I know, I know.

615
00:35:51,569 --> 00:35:54,689
Like there's some, there are hedge
fund managers that I know and some

616
00:35:54,689 --> 00:35:56,729
very wealthy people I know, obviously.

617
00:35:57,179 --> 00:35:57,629
Um.

618
00:35:58,659 --> 00:36:00,759
Rock stars, some movie stars.

619
00:36:00,879 --> 00:36:03,549
I mean, everybody else has double arm.

620
00:36:03,579 --> 00:36:05,109
Like everybody else has to work.

621
00:36:05,529 --> 00:36:06,519
Everybody has to work.

622
00:36:06,519 --> 00:36:08,319
The mom and dad, it's crazy.

623
00:36:08,859 --> 00:36:09,099
Anja: Yeah.

624
00:36:09,459 --> 00:36:13,869
And then they don't even believe, like
majority of people, probably around 60%

625
00:36:13,869 --> 00:36:18,729
don't even believe that working full-time
will actually lead to a good life anymore.

626
00:36:18,729 --> 00:36:21,549
Like even if two people,
there's just, yeah,

627
00:36:22,119 --> 00:36:24,339
James: they're losing hope, which
is, which has pushed them further on

628
00:36:24,339 --> 00:36:26,349
the risk curve to take more risks.

629
00:36:27,204 --> 00:36:29,604
Well, what if, what if
this goes up a hundred x?

630
00:36:30,144 --> 00:36:34,224
That's why, you know, one of the reasons
that that Bitcoin has fallen out of favor

631
00:36:34,224 --> 00:36:38,304
a little bit here is that people are like,
man, it's already at a hundred thousand.

632
00:36:38,484 --> 00:36:39,534
It's at 90,000.

633
00:36:39,534 --> 00:36:44,124
Like I. I missed it when it was,
it was, it was a hundred dollars.

634
00:36:44,124 --> 00:36:47,004
I and I, I could have bought some,
or it was a thousand dollars.

635
00:36:47,004 --> 00:36:48,594
I could have bought some, but I missed it.

636
00:36:49,014 --> 00:36:52,224
That's what I hear from people
when I talk to 'em about Bitcoin.

637
00:36:52,224 --> 00:36:53,814
They're like, oh, I've
already missed that.

638
00:36:54,144 --> 00:36:57,024
What's the next one like,
should I be, should I be buying

639
00:36:57,024 --> 00:36:58,704
the Z Cash or this Dogecoin?

640
00:36:58,704 --> 00:36:59,634
Should I be buying that?

641
00:36:59,934 --> 00:37:01,284
Like that's only 11 cents.

642
00:37:01,284 --> 00:37:03,204
That might go up to
like a hundred dollars.

643
00:37:03,204 --> 00:37:06,834
Then I can make all that money so that
they're looking for the lottery ticket.

644
00:37:07,344 --> 00:37:07,584
Anja: Yeah.

645
00:37:08,529 --> 00:37:08,799
Yep.

646
00:37:08,889 --> 00:37:10,929
That's the behavior that's incentivized.

647
00:37:10,929 --> 00:37:13,539
So yeah, unfortunately.

648
00:37:13,644 --> 00:37:14,829
Um, yeah.

649
00:37:14,859 --> 00:37:15,069
Okay.

650
00:37:15,069 --> 00:37:18,609
Well let's talk about Bitcoin then,
because I did get some community

651
00:37:18,609 --> 00:37:21,939
questions and this one I think,
believe it came from a quant, so

652
00:37:21,939 --> 00:37:28,809
it's a very serious, um, question
when the spelled WEN bitcoin pump?

653
00:37:30,789 --> 00:37:31,629
James: Good question.

654
00:37:32,709 --> 00:37:36,249
If I know, um, well look.

655
00:37:36,954 --> 00:37:42,864
I, okay, so I'm a co, a co-managing
partner of the Bitcoin Opportunity

656
00:37:42,864 --> 00:37:45,264
Fund, and we are on a Bitcoin standard.

657
00:37:45,744 --> 00:37:49,614
And so that means we own Bitcoin
instead of dollars, even though we're

658
00:37:49,614 --> 00:37:51,144
domiciled here in the United States.

659
00:37:51,144 --> 00:37:55,344
So our, our treasury is, is in Bitcoin
and it's al it always has been.

660
00:37:55,884 --> 00:38:00,384
And so we look for opportunities that
are Bitcoin denominated, you know,

661
00:38:00,384 --> 00:38:01,854
public and private opportunities.

662
00:38:03,264 --> 00:38:04,764
And we are.

663
00:38:05,949 --> 00:38:12,159
Short term, very wary because of the price
activity that we've seen the last few

664
00:38:12,159 --> 00:38:14,829
weeks, it has been pretty ugly actually.

665
00:38:14,919 --> 00:38:21,969
Um, you've seen gold just and silver in
these metals ballooning to new highs.

666
00:38:23,124 --> 00:38:28,404
The Nasdaq and the s and p continuing
to march higher or stay where they are.

667
00:38:28,494 --> 00:38:33,564
And then Bitcoin has has, you
know, it's retreated 30% or

668
00:38:33,564 --> 00:38:35,544
so from, its from its highs.

669
00:38:36,264 --> 00:38:41,454
And so, um, and it's, it's been
trading in a range and lower, and

670
00:38:41,454 --> 00:38:43,764
even today it's down 5% right now.

671
00:38:44,664 --> 00:38:45,234
So how can you

672
00:38:45,354 --> 00:38:46,074
Anja: check what

673
00:38:46,674 --> 00:38:47,064
James: Yeah.

674
00:38:47,154 --> 00:38:48,864
And so does that, does that worry me?

675
00:38:50,844 --> 00:38:53,364
The answer is no, because
I have a long-term horizon.

676
00:38:54,294 --> 00:38:58,404
You know, I, I'm not worried about
the price today, and in fact, I mean,

677
00:38:58,404 --> 00:39:03,144
to be truthful, I would actually, I
wouldn't mind because of this hedge

678
00:39:03,144 --> 00:39:06,234
fund, because of the way that we're
positioned and we can do things.

679
00:39:06,969 --> 00:39:10,119
I wouldn't mind seeing a
six handle on, on Bitcoin.

680
00:39:10,119 --> 00:39:11,739
I wouldn't mind seeing it in the sixties.

681
00:39:12,339 --> 00:39:15,309
Draw down another, you know, 20, 30%.

682
00:39:15,819 --> 00:39:18,069
And the reason for that is twofold.

683
00:39:18,189 --> 00:39:22,959
I can see that happening because
the s and p and Mag seven has mar

684
00:39:23,169 --> 00:39:25,659
they have marched so high right
now, they're trading at multiples.

685
00:39:25,659 --> 00:39:27,789
That, that seem absolutely absurd.

686
00:39:28,269 --> 00:39:29,949
Um, can that continue?

687
00:39:30,609 --> 00:39:35,259
Well, um, sure it can continue for
a lot longer than people expect.

688
00:39:35,259 --> 00:39:39,969
So if you're shorting those things,
be careful, you know, um, who knows?

689
00:39:40,179 --> 00:39:46,599
And so, uh, but like I said before,
we are teetering on all this

690
00:39:46,599 --> 00:39:51,339
leverage that if, if, you know,
we large hedge fund blows up, it

691
00:39:51,339 --> 00:39:53,439
could take a number of them with it.

692
00:39:54,039 --> 00:39:57,069
It could take a bank with them,
you know, and I've watched

693
00:39:57,069 --> 00:39:58,989
that movie play out before.

694
00:39:59,529 --> 00:39:59,919
Um.

695
00:40:00,489 --> 00:40:06,489
You know, back in 1998 when
I was trading arbitrage on a,

696
00:40:06,549 --> 00:40:08,274
on a, a big hedge fund desk.

697
00:40:09,459 --> 00:40:13,149
And we watched the collapse of
Long-Term Capital Management.

698
00:40:13,689 --> 00:40:19,089
This, uh, hedge fund that was founded by
two Nobel Laureates, uh, that, you know,

699
00:40:19,089 --> 00:40:24,219
they, they created what was, uh, known
as the option pricing model Black Shoals.

700
00:40:24,549 --> 00:40:27,189
And they won a Nobel, uh, prize for it.

701
00:40:28,269 --> 00:40:31,779
And they created this hedge
fund that had so much leverage.

702
00:40:31,779 --> 00:40:35,589
They got off sides when the
Russian ruble was devalued and,

703
00:40:35,619 --> 00:40:37,509
uh, credit spreads blew out.

704
00:40:37,509 --> 00:40:40,269
They, they got blown up because
they were basically short them.

705
00:40:40,929 --> 00:40:42,729
And, um, so.

706
00:40:43,149 --> 00:40:45,369
And it almost took down the
entire financial system.

707
00:40:45,849 --> 00:40:47,349
There were emergency meetings.

708
00:40:47,619 --> 00:40:51,279
There's a great book about it by
Roger Lowenstein called When Genius

709
00:40:51,279 --> 00:40:53,649
Fails, these two Geniuses failed.

710
00:40:54,009 --> 00:40:56,739
And, uh, I highly recommend it for
anybody who wants to understand

711
00:40:56,739 --> 00:41:00,039
leverage and how, how one hedge fund
could take down the whole system.

712
00:41:00,549 --> 00:41:02,409
Um, that's what people are worried about.

713
00:41:02,409 --> 00:41:03,669
Do I think that's going to happen?

714
00:41:03,999 --> 00:41:04,419
No.

715
00:41:05,109 --> 00:41:08,109
But I've seen it happen
and it could happen.

716
00:41:08,904 --> 00:41:09,894
It doesn't have to be a hedge fund.

717
00:41:09,894 --> 00:41:10,644
It could be something else.

718
00:41:10,644 --> 00:41:13,854
It could be something that we, that's
why they call them black swans, because

719
00:41:13,854 --> 00:41:16,824
you have no idea where it's gonna
come from or how it's gonna happen.

720
00:41:17,364 --> 00:41:22,584
But if it does, make no mistake, this
will be, and everything correlates to

721
00:41:22,584 --> 00:41:28,224
one trade, meaning everything will go
down, including gold and silver, in my

722
00:41:28,224 --> 00:41:32,934
opinion, unless there's a black swan
that, that favors them in some way,

723
00:41:32,934 --> 00:41:34,614
which I, I can't think of right now.

724
00:41:34,614 --> 00:41:37,374
But, um, I. Everything will go down.

725
00:41:37,404 --> 00:41:39,924
So just, you know, everybody's
gotta be careful, but what you want

726
00:41:39,924 --> 00:41:43,224
is you want to have assets that
are uncorrelated to each other.

727
00:41:43,854 --> 00:41:47,514
But in that case though, Bitcoin
will go down too, in my opinion.

728
00:41:48,084 --> 00:41:54,414
Um, and so, but that's short term
because long term, think about what

729
00:41:54,414 --> 00:41:59,664
we talked about earlier in the show,
the Debasement trade, and here's

730
00:41:59,664 --> 00:42:01,374
where the, it's kind of a misnomer.

731
00:42:01,374 --> 00:42:02,184
It's not a trade.

732
00:42:02,964 --> 00:42:05,124
This is the a debasement positioning.

733
00:42:05,724 --> 00:42:06,084
Okay.

734
00:42:06,324 --> 00:42:10,704
This is not about should I get in
and out, like when should I buy

735
00:42:10,704 --> 00:42:11,814
gold and buy solar and get out?

736
00:42:11,994 --> 00:42:12,414
No.

737
00:42:12,594 --> 00:42:16,284
This is about positioning for long,
long, long term debasement of your

738
00:42:16,284 --> 00:42:18,354
currency no matter where you are.

739
00:42:18,654 --> 00:42:20,574
It's happening in Australia,
it's happening in New Zealand,

740
00:42:20,574 --> 00:42:21,504
it's happening in Europe.

741
00:42:21,924 --> 00:42:22,764
It's happening here.

742
00:42:23,334 --> 00:42:24,264
You're being debased.

743
00:42:24,804 --> 00:42:26,094
And so it's not a trade at all.

744
00:42:26,334 --> 00:42:27,054
It's a position.

745
00:42:27,879 --> 00:42:32,349
And so I'm not worried about Bitcoin
because it's going to benefit from that.

746
00:42:32,349 --> 00:42:35,619
Meaning it's not going to
be hurt by the debasement.

747
00:42:35,919 --> 00:42:37,329
It's going to go up in value.

748
00:42:37,749 --> 00:42:42,069
Or like I said before, it's
gonna be the reverse of that

749
00:42:42,669 --> 00:42:44,109
debasement of the US dollar.

750
00:42:44,109 --> 00:42:45,934
It's gonna take more US
dollars to buy one Bitcoin.

751
00:42:46,989 --> 00:42:49,329
And so I'm very comfortable
with that long term.

752
00:42:49,869 --> 00:42:54,609
I still think that, um, I'm highly
confident that Bitcoin will be trading

753
00:42:54,609 --> 00:42:57,549
at a million dollars in the early 2030s.

754
00:42:57,969 --> 00:43:01,959
You know, whether it's 20, 31, 32, 33,
somewhere in there, it will get there.

755
00:43:02,559 --> 00:43:09,339
And that's because of this, just, just
relentless printing of money that we're

756
00:43:09,339 --> 00:43:12,999
seeing around the world and expansion
of, of liquidity, expansion of leverage.

757
00:43:13,689 --> 00:43:18,789
And so, um, I. You know, uh,
where do I think it'll go?

758
00:43:19,419 --> 00:43:24,609
I think at some point here it does
reverse and we see higher highs over the

759
00:43:24,609 --> 00:43:27,039
course of the next year to 18 months.

760
00:43:28,539 --> 00:43:32,079
But if something happens where the
entire market melts down, and like I

761
00:43:32,079 --> 00:43:35,709
said, we get the, everything correlates
to one trade, this will go lower.

762
00:43:36,099 --> 00:43:40,899
So, uh, we have ways of having
powder to take advantage of that.

763
00:43:41,829 --> 00:43:49,119
And, um, but you know, it's, uh, it,
it, it's the people need to just adjust

764
00:43:49,119 --> 00:43:56,049
their time horizons and, uh, and be
metered about how they approach it.

765
00:43:56,259 --> 00:44:00,369
I would not take on leverage
in Bitcoin in these areas.

766
00:44:00,819 --> 00:44:06,789
It's, it's, you know, this is, you've been
consolidating here and Bitcoin likes to do

767
00:44:06,789 --> 00:44:08,469
things that people don't expect it to do.

768
00:44:09,114 --> 00:44:13,674
So if it looks like it's consolidating
and looks like it's a massive short and

769
00:44:13,674 --> 00:44:18,804
it's gonna go down to, you know, $50,000,
I mean, Bitcoin would like to just

770
00:44:18,804 --> 00:44:20,634
go ahead and go to 120 in their face.

771
00:44:21,024 --> 00:44:22,614
It's just the nature of this thing.

772
00:44:22,944 --> 00:44:26,364
So, um, and it's gonna
continue to be volatile until.

773
00:44:26,849 --> 00:44:28,829
More people understand exactly what it

774
00:44:29,276 --> 00:44:31,436
Speaker 3: Not your keys, not your coins.

775
00:44:31,976 --> 00:44:36,056
If you're holding Bitcoin, your self
custody setup needs to be done right.

776
00:44:36,806 --> 00:44:41,306
Mine racks delivers paranoia grade
security so that you can sleep at night

777
00:44:41,306 --> 00:44:43,346
knowing that your money is protected.

778
00:44:44,216 --> 00:44:47,096
Take control and secure
your money the honest way.

779
00:44:47,486 --> 00:44:50,876
Head to mine racks.com/honest Money.

780
00:44:51,769 --> 00:44:54,709
Anja: I don't really know what to
expect with Bitcoin because you

781
00:44:54,709 --> 00:44:58,459
know, part of me is like, do I want
it to go lower so I can stack more?

782
00:44:58,459 --> 00:45:02,479
Or do I want it to have its silver
moment so that I can feel validated?

783
00:45:03,679 --> 00:45:04,099
James: Right?

784
00:45:04,099 --> 00:45:05,929
And that's, uh, well it
depends on your horizon.

785
00:45:05,929 --> 00:45:09,229
If you're not planning retiring this
year, then having it go lower so you

786
00:45:09,229 --> 00:45:10,939
can stack more is probably a good thing.

787
00:45:11,329 --> 00:45:14,659
You know, if you don't need the capital
that you have invested in it right now.

788
00:45:15,349 --> 00:45:18,199
But remember, it's not always like that.

789
00:45:19,079 --> 00:45:24,269
If we go back to what happened in Silicon
Valley Bank and when that, when, when

790
00:45:24,269 --> 00:45:32,189
that, uh, had its meltdown and, uh,
and you know, people were, they were

791
00:45:32,189 --> 00:45:36,329
thinking that, well, Bitcoin would, if
you think back, you would think, oh,

792
00:45:36,509 --> 00:45:39,509
Bitcoin must have gotten annihilated
there when the whole market sold off.

793
00:45:39,509 --> 00:45:42,599
No, Bitcoin was up 20 or
30% over those two months.

794
00:45:42,599 --> 00:45:43,049
Why?

795
00:45:43,529 --> 00:45:46,619
Because the nature of that event was.

796
00:45:47,489 --> 00:45:48,029
Oh my God.

797
00:45:48,029 --> 00:45:51,779
They may, they may take my assets
that are sitting in the bank.

798
00:45:52,409 --> 00:45:55,079
I've gotta get it outta the bank,
and it's something they can't seize.

799
00:45:55,949 --> 00:46:00,509
And so they watch, you know, the United
States government seize treasuries.

800
00:46:00,779 --> 00:46:08,339
They've seen the ECB uh, go and seize,
um, bank deposits for Greece when

801
00:46:08,399 --> 00:46:12,749
Greece, when their, when their, uh,
national Bank was, was, uh, melting down.

802
00:46:12,779 --> 00:46:13,574
They saw that happen.

803
00:46:14,924 --> 00:46:18,164
And that was a test case, and they
know that that can happen here.

804
00:46:18,374 --> 00:46:19,604
You're protected a little bit.

805
00:46:19,604 --> 00:46:23,984
You're protected on your FDIC
insurance here, which will protect

806
00:46:23,984 --> 00:46:25,994
you up to a quarter million
dollars in in your account.

807
00:46:25,994 --> 00:46:31,964
But if you have more than that, good
luck And in reality, think about it.

808
00:46:32,414 --> 00:46:37,424
If you have a quarter million dollars
in your account and they need to pay

809
00:46:37,424 --> 00:46:41,834
everybody a quarter million dollars,
that has that to, to shore up a bank

810
00:46:41,834 --> 00:46:48,644
to protect it, especially if it's a, a
gsib, a globally, uh, globally systematic

811
00:46:48,644 --> 00:46:52,244
and important bank, the money that they
would've to print to do that would make

812
00:46:52,244 --> 00:46:54,494
the those dollars worth a whole lot less.

813
00:46:54,644 --> 00:46:55,994
So where do you wanna be?

814
00:46:56,324 --> 00:46:58,784
And so Bitcoin did go
up in the face of that.

815
00:46:59,024 --> 00:46:59,594
So again.

816
00:47:00,164 --> 00:47:03,764
There's always a caveat, you know,
it really depends on what the event

817
00:47:03,764 --> 00:47:05,799
is, but I'm prepared either way.

818
00:47:07,259 --> 00:47:09,989
Anja: Yeah, that's, I mean,
that's a great outlook to have.

819
00:47:10,319 --> 00:47:15,299
Um, but there's a gentleman in Australia
called Scott Phillips and remotely full,

820
00:47:15,329 --> 00:47:20,939
and he's, a few people in the community
are really trying to orange pill him.

821
00:47:20,939 --> 00:47:24,994
He's read a number of Bitcoin books and
he's starting to understand Bitcoin,

822
00:47:25,319 --> 00:47:27,479
but he's still in the position of like.

823
00:47:27,794 --> 00:47:28,814
Well, I get it.

824
00:47:28,814 --> 00:47:29,834
I appreciate it.

825
00:47:29,834 --> 00:47:34,544
I just don't un like he can't
make a bet on it going up.

826
00:47:34,604 --> 00:47:38,144
So that's just what makes him
still stay away from this asset.

827
00:47:38,144 --> 00:47:42,584
Like are there any particular indicators
that you look at in terms of like

828
00:47:42,644 --> 00:47:44,324
adoption and momentum in Bitcoin?

829
00:47:44,804 --> 00:47:49,754
James: Well, I mean the, the, the greatest
indicators, um, macroeconomically are

830
00:47:49,784 --> 00:47:53,174
who's buying and how are they buying it.

831
00:47:53,624 --> 00:47:56,894
And you know, if you listen
to why they're buying it, so.

832
00:47:57,524 --> 00:48:05,504
Things like, you know, um, you got Warren
Buffet and, and, uh, Jamie Diamond just

833
00:48:05,654 --> 00:48:10,964
blasting Bitcoin years ago, and now JP
Morgan Chase is getting into the game

834
00:48:10,964 --> 00:48:12,884
of offering Bitcoin to their investors.

835
00:48:13,304 --> 00:48:17,804
You had Vanguard absolutely refusing to
allow people on their platform to buy the

836
00:48:17,804 --> 00:48:20,594
Bitcoin ETFs, um, when they were launched.

837
00:48:21,584 --> 00:48:25,334
691 days later, they, they
capitulated and now they're

838
00:48:25,424 --> 00:48:27,794
allowing their investors to buy it.

839
00:48:28,604 --> 00:48:33,854
Harvard, uh, I think they quadrupled
their position in, in Bitcoin ETFs

840
00:48:34,874 --> 00:48:38,474
the last quarter of, uh, 2025.

841
00:48:38,474 --> 00:48:39,944
I think it was the last quarter.

842
00:48:40,364 --> 00:48:43,274
Abu Dhabi, uh, there that, uh.

843
00:48:44,249 --> 00:48:48,089
That central bank, uh, their
central bank, they bought Bitcoin.

844
00:48:48,479 --> 00:48:52,049
Uh, I think they tripled
their position late in 2025.

845
00:48:53,039 --> 00:48:56,279
And so those are key indicators.

846
00:48:56,879 --> 00:49:03,629
Here's the thing, people are getting
nervous, frustrated, uh impatient

847
00:49:04,109 --> 00:49:05,999
with the institutional adoption.

848
00:49:06,659 --> 00:49:10,709
And I mean, these are glacially slow.

849
00:49:11,384 --> 00:49:13,544
Institutions, they don't move quickly.

850
00:49:14,174 --> 00:49:16,064
They've got checks and balances.

851
00:49:16,064 --> 00:49:18,314
They've got committees,
they've got oversight.

852
00:49:18,314 --> 00:49:24,734
They've got, um, you know, uh, they
have boards that they have to answer to.

853
00:49:25,244 --> 00:49:30,494
And, uh, it takes a while for them to
adopt a new asset to enter the portfolio.

854
00:49:30,494 --> 00:49:33,014
I'm not talking about, you know,
just buying a different stock, like

855
00:49:33,014 --> 00:49:37,214
this is really a new class and they,
it, it's taken them time to get

856
00:49:37,214 --> 00:49:40,154
to the point where they understand
it, where they can buy some.

857
00:49:41,294 --> 00:49:44,204
And, you know, you keep hearing
about, oh, institutions are here,

858
00:49:44,204 --> 00:49:50,174
institutions are here because hedge
funds are buying the, the, the various,

859
00:49:50,594 --> 00:49:54,884
um, ETFs, but that's not really true.

860
00:49:55,724 --> 00:50:00,464
The institutions are pensions,
funds and endowments, foundations

861
00:50:01,034 --> 00:50:06,104
like they, and they, these, these
entities control trillions of dollars.

862
00:50:06,749 --> 00:50:09,599
Those are the ones who make investments
and stick with them long term.

863
00:50:09,599 --> 00:50:14,639
They're not playing basis trades and,
you know, um, cash and carry trades.

864
00:50:14,639 --> 00:50:20,279
And those games, like the hedge funds are,
they're buying and holding these things.

865
00:50:20,669 --> 00:50:25,739
You know, they're not buying ibit
and shorting BTC futures, you know,

866
00:50:25,769 --> 00:50:27,479
it's, that's not how they operate.

867
00:50:27,479 --> 00:50:29,609
If they're buying ibit,
they're buying to hold it.

868
00:50:30,209 --> 00:50:31,709
It's the same thing
they would do with gold.

869
00:50:32,429 --> 00:50:33,089
So.

870
00:50:34,379 --> 00:50:35,909
Looking for those signals.

871
00:50:35,909 --> 00:50:37,679
Those are the real macro signals.

872
00:50:38,039 --> 00:50:41,399
You can stare at charts all day long, and
that's great for entry and exit points

873
00:50:41,399 --> 00:50:43,439
for, you know, trading around a position.

874
00:50:43,439 --> 00:50:44,669
There's nothing wrong with that.

875
00:50:45,149 --> 00:50:48,449
There's absolutely nothing wrong
with having a core position in

876
00:50:48,449 --> 00:50:49,919
something and trading around it.

877
00:50:50,609 --> 00:50:51,599
I do it all the time.

878
00:50:52,169 --> 00:50:55,679
Um, and so there's,
there's no shame in that.

879
00:50:55,829 --> 00:51:00,119
Um, but that's what the hedge funds do.

880
00:51:01,214 --> 00:51:02,744
These institutions don't do that.

881
00:51:02,744 --> 00:51:04,094
They'll buy and they'll rebalance.

882
00:51:04,724 --> 00:51:07,664
Um, meaning if the, if the portfolio
gets to a certain size or the

883
00:51:07,664 --> 00:51:10,814
position gets to a certain size, they
rebalance to get it back in line to

884
00:51:10,814 --> 00:51:12,374
the percentage allocation they want.

885
00:51:12,854 --> 00:51:17,894
When they come in earnest, Bitcoin's
price will rise dramatically.

886
00:51:18,359 --> 00:51:19,829
It may not happen overnight.

887
00:51:19,859 --> 00:51:23,519
It may just be this, you know,
wow, this thing just has not

888
00:51:23,519 --> 00:51:25,019
been stopping for, for months.

889
00:51:25,019 --> 00:51:29,249
Now that, that is what I expect is
something more along the lines of,

890
00:51:29,609 --> 00:51:37,619
there's just a continuous demand for,
for more supply, and that may take time.

891
00:51:38,009 --> 00:51:42,989
And again, it's your horizon,
expand your horizon, and, and

892
00:51:42,989 --> 00:51:44,159
I, I believe you'll see that.

893
00:51:45,719 --> 00:51:47,129
Anja: Yeah, really good message.

894
00:51:47,219 --> 00:51:48,869
Um, I'm conscious of time.

895
00:51:48,869 --> 00:51:51,449
Do you have any final
words that you wanna share?

896
00:51:51,449 --> 00:51:55,289
Obviously I'll share all the links
to the report for with unchained in

897
00:51:55,289 --> 00:51:57,479
the show notes, but any final words?

898
00:51:58,394 --> 00:52:01,064
James: No, I think, uh, well,
it's, it's good talking to you.

899
00:52:01,064 --> 00:52:02,144
I'm glad you had me on.

900
00:52:02,204 --> 00:52:05,654
Um, of course, you only asked me I
think, three questions I never shut up.

901
00:52:05,654 --> 00:52:11,414
But, um, the, uh, I think the only
message I really want to hit home

902
00:52:11,414 --> 00:52:16,274
with here is, uh, just be careful with
the leverage of, of Bitcoin itself.

903
00:52:16,964 --> 00:52:20,684
It's okay to have leverage,
um, if you use it.

904
00:52:21,164 --> 00:52:26,864
Um, you know, uh, if you,
if you, if you don't.

905
00:52:27,809 --> 00:52:31,709
If you don't get over your ski tips and
you use leverage responsibly, it's okay.

906
00:52:32,099 --> 00:52:37,649
Um, but I'm talking about buying
Bitcoin and then using Bitcoin as

907
00:52:37,649 --> 00:52:40,109
the collateral for your leverage.

908
00:52:40,109 --> 00:52:41,249
That's pretty dangerous.

909
00:52:41,339 --> 00:52:44,279
So that's one of the just big messages,
number one for the people who are

910
00:52:44,279 --> 00:52:46,019
listening about trading and all that.

911
00:52:46,589 --> 00:52:53,759
And then look, um, it's, I, I do believe
that we're in this, we're in a period

912
00:52:53,759 --> 00:53:00,179
of time here where I. The game is not
up yet, but there, there are warning

913
00:53:00,179 --> 00:53:05,369
signals that are being, uh, that are
flashing now on the current system.

914
00:53:05,549 --> 00:53:07,049
And so be aware of those.

915
00:53:07,349 --> 00:53:10,739
Do whatever you can to, to stack assets.

916
00:53:11,009 --> 00:53:15,599
And, uh, you know, um, I've been saying
buy gold and Bitcoin for a very long time.

917
00:53:16,049 --> 00:53:18,269
Um, I still very much believe in Bitcoin.

918
00:53:18,299 --> 00:53:20,519
It is my core thesis.

919
00:53:21,149 --> 00:53:23,609
Um, and, um, but.

920
00:53:24,179 --> 00:53:28,919
No, I, I appreciate you having me on
and uh, and like you said, I've got my

921
00:53:28,919 --> 00:53:29,939
newsletter called the Informationist.

922
00:53:31,139 --> 00:53:32,699
It, uh, it comes out every Sunday.

923
00:53:32,699 --> 00:53:37,559
And I, and what I do is I simplify
one complex topic, um, for you.

924
00:53:37,679 --> 00:53:41,579
Uh, there's a free version that
you can get once a month and, uh,

925
00:53:41,579 --> 00:53:44,219
and that's been well received.

926
00:53:44,219 --> 00:53:45,059
I appreciate that.

927
00:53:45,059 --> 00:53:48,179
And I really love the community that,
that, uh, we've been building there.

928
00:53:48,569 --> 00:53:52,349
Um, you know, it's got almost 50,000
subscribers now in just a couple years.

929
00:53:52,349 --> 00:53:53,729
So that's been, that's been fun.

930
00:53:54,554 --> 00:53:57,194
And then of, and then of course I've
got the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund.

931
00:53:57,644 --> 00:54:02,534
And if you are an accredited investor
and you want to learn more about

932
00:54:02,534 --> 00:54:08,294
it, you can just go to, uh, bitcoin
opportunity.fund and, um, and we can

933
00:54:08,324 --> 00:54:11,114
set up a call and see if it's something
that would be appropriate for you.

934
00:54:11,684 --> 00:54:12,734
Um, but that's it.

935
00:54:12,944 --> 00:54:17,624
I look forward to, you know,
talking to you again soon and, uh,

936
00:54:17,624 --> 00:54:18,794
and I appreciate you having me on.

937
00:54:19,574 --> 00:54:20,024
Anja: Awesome.

938
00:54:20,024 --> 00:54:21,306
Thank you so much, James.

939
00:54:21,306 --> 00:54:23,796
Speaker 4: Still here you
are one of the good ones.

940
00:54:24,276 --> 00:54:26,916
We'll be back next week
with a brand new episode.

941
00:54:27,276 --> 00:54:30,996
If you enjoy how we cut through
the noise, consider supporting us

942
00:54:30,996 --> 00:54:33,246
directly via the Lightning QR code.

943
00:54:33,756 --> 00:54:35,796
Got a question or a thought to share?

944
00:54:36,186 --> 00:54:37,536
Comments are wide open.

945
00:54:37,836 --> 00:54:39,066
We'd love to hear from you.

946
00:54:39,176 --> 00:54:44,456
For bonus content and updates, follow
us on socials at Honest Money Show.

947
00:54:45,506 --> 00:54:50,336
Until next week, take care of yourself
and your money and stay decentralized.