Show Notes — Current Market & News Briefing (FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics) — 24 Sep 2025
FX & Central Banks
- USD (DXY): Rebounds, pushing above Tuesday’s 97.45 high as softer German data and a light U.S. docket support the bid.
- EUR: Weaker after German Ifo misses—Business Climate 87.7, Expectations 89.7, Current Conditions 85.7—snapping a 6-month improving streak; EUR/USD back on a 1.17 handle.
- GBP: Heavy post-PMI; quiet U.K. calendar with BoE’s Greene speaking later. Cable slipped back to a 1.34 handle.
- JPY: USD/JPY back into the 148s (high 148.29). Japan flash PMIs softened; focus on Oct 4 LDP leadership outcome and BoJ policy mix.
- AUD/NZD: AUD firmer after Aug CPI 3.0% Y/Y (from 2.8%)—top of RBA band. NZ names Anna Breman as next RBNZ Governor (starts Dec 1).
- CNY/INR: PBoC fix USD/CNY 7.1077 (vs 7.1080 exp). Traders cite likely RBI NDF support for INR at fresh lows.
- SEK: Riksbank -25bp to 1.75% (one hawkish dissent); guidance that the rate will stay here “for some time.” Two-way EUR/SEK flow post-decision.
Commodities
- Crude oil: Geopolitics lifted prices—reports Israel took “another step” toward occupying Gaza City—to WTI 63.86 / Brent 68.12, then demand worries from weak Ifo pulled back to 63.25 / 67.51.
- U.S. private inventories: Crude -3.82mln (exp +0.2mln), Gasoline +1.05mln, Distillates +0.52mln, Cushing +0.07mln.
- Flows/supply: Novatek restarted a second unit at Ust-Luga; Iran says UN sanctions won’t burden oil sales. China’s Aug crude steel output -0.7% Y/Y to 77.4mt.
- Gold: Consolidates just below the new ATH (USD 3,791/oz); today’s best USD 3,779/oz as USD strength caps upside.
- Copper/Metals: 3M LME copper stays below USD 10,000/t; typhoon risk and softer EU data weigh. Antamina sees 2025 copper ~380kt (vs 430kt in 2024), zinc 450kt.
Trade & Tariffs
- US–Canada: Ottawa says trade talks with Washington will roll into the USMCA review; Canada will sign when terms are right.
- Canada–China: PM open to discuss steel tariffs with Beijing; China’s premier signals willingness to improve bilateral ties.
- EU–US: EU trade chief to meet USTR this week to revive metals-tariff talks.
- WTO/China: MOFCOM says China will not seek preferential treatment at the WTO.
- US–Australia: White House confirms Oct 20 Washington meeting—energy, critical minerals, and defense cooperation in focus.
Geopolitics
- NATO/Baltics: U.S. Defense Sec. affirms any NATO airspace incursion is unacceptable; G7 FMs discuss additional economic costs on Russia after recent violations.
- Russia–Ukraine: Kyiv welcomes recent U.S. remarks as a positive signal; reports of Ukrainian drones striking Russia’s Neftekhim Salavat. Kremlin says improved U.S. ties are moving slowly but seeks to remove “irritants.”
- Middle East: France’s president meets Iran’s president Wednesday on UN sanctions; U.S. envoy signals Israel–Syria de-escalation talks; reports Israel advanced plans toward Gaza City.
- Maritime: UKMTO notes incident 120 nm E of Aden; crew and vessel safe.
Numbers at a Glance
- DXY: > 97.45 (above Tue high)
- EUR/USD: 1.17 handle
- USD/JPY: high 148.29
- AUD CPI (Aug): 3.0% Y/Y (from 2.8%)
- Gold: ATH USD 3,791/oz; today USD 3,779/oz
- WTI/Brent: peaks 63.86 / 68.12 → lows 63.25 / 67.51
- Germany Ifo (Sep): BC 87.7, Exp 89.7, CC 85.7
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