Monday, November 17, 2025 — Strategic Positioning. Live market updates return. We examine the critical $60 level on WTI crude and the structural divergence between oil and natural gas.
Show Notes
Welcome to Energy Markets Daily, brought to you by DailyDominanceNow.com. Monday, November 17, 2025 — Strategic Positioning. We're back with live market updates. Today, we examine the critical price levels defining energy markets and what they mean for positioning into year-end. **Current Market Snapshot** WTI crude is trading at $59.44 per barrel. Brent sits at $63.74. Natural gas at Henry Hub closed last week at $3.60 per MMBtu. The December NYMEX contract is at $4.53. These aren't random numbers. They're battlegrounds. **Crude Oil - The $60 Floor** WTI has been consolidating around the $60 level. This is the line in the sand. Last week, crude turned lower as traders reacted to bearish supply projections, a stronger dollar, and surprise inventory builds. OPEC+ increased output by 137,000 barrels per day in November. This marks the eighth consecutive month of production increases. The EIA projects Brent will average $62.52 per barrel in Q4 2025, then drop to $55 per barrel in 2026. **The strategic question:** Can WTI hold $60? A break below $57 confirms bearish momentum. A close above $62 reopens upside. **China - The Demand Wildcard** China's oil demand is projected to peak in 2025 at 770 million tonnes. This is the inflection point. Crude imports are expected to increase by only 1% in 2025. Electric vehicles, LNG trucks, and high-speed rail are eroding transportation fuel demand. For crude markets, this means the era of demand-driven price support is ending. **Natural Gas - Structural Strength** Natural gas is a different story. Henry Hub spot prices are projected to average $3.90 per MMBtu during winter months. The EIA expects prices to average $4.00 per MMBtu in 2026, 16% higher than 2025. Why? U.S. LNG exports are expected to reach 14.9 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, a 25% increase from 2024. Storage levels are healthy at 3,960 Bcf, 4% above the five-year average. Natural gas is benefiting from structural demand while crude faces structural headwinds. **Strategic Positioning** Here's the playbook: **Crude:** Defensive. Watch the $60 level on WTI. A break below $57 opens downside to $55. **Natural gas:** Constructive. Winter demand and LNG export growth support prices. The $3.50–$4.00 range is the new baseline. **The divergence trade:** Long natural gas, short crude. This is a structural shift. **Catalyst Watch** This week: EIA inventory reports on Thursday. Watch for crude builds and gas draws. Next week: Thanksgiving holiday. Expect thin liquidity. December: OPEC+ meeting on December 1st. Will they pause production increases? **The Levels That Matter** WTI crude: Support at $57. Resistance at $62. Natural gas: Support at $3.50. Resistance at $4.00. Brent crude: Support at $62. Resistance at $66. **Final Word** The $60 level on WTI is the battleground. Below it, we're looking at $55 crude by year-end. Above it, we get a relief rally into December. Natural gas is the structural winner. Position accordingly. For inquiries: energymarkets@protonmail.com. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. We'll see you Tuesday for Technicals.
What is Energy Markets Daily?
Energy Markets Daily delivers essential intelligence for global energy capital. Hosted with institutional authority, this daily brief covers WTI/Brent crude analysis, natural gas markets, energy M&A activity, drilling intelligence, and the geopolitical developments that drive billion-dollar energy decisions.
Providing superior energy market intelligence sourced from the same trading floors, boardrooms, and energy desks where your competition operates. Essential listening for oil & gas executives, energy investors, and institutional capital allocating $100M+ in the energy sector.
Contact: energymarkets@protonmail.com
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