The JGB curve isn't behaving the way it "should", nor is that behavior universal to the entire curve. Not only that, similar patterns are playing out in US$ forward markets like term SOFR futures. Each of these curves are pricing therefore predicting the same general set of future outcomes, and, wildly enough, enormous difficulties in figuring out how and when to get there because of the same reason.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
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If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/
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https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
What is Eurodollar University?
Jeff Snider will guide you through the realm of monetary science. Multiple episodes uploaded each week, discussing big news and key current events, the state of markets and what they are telling you, as well as historical summaries and deep background material so that you can understand what’s really going on in this eurodollar’s world.