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Where does globalisation go from here?
Changing dynamics of the global trade landscape
Panellists:
Cecilia Malmström, former European Commissioner for Trade; Nonresident Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Jeongmin Seong, Partner, McKinsey Global Institute (MGI)
Deborah Elms, Founder and Executive Director, Asian Trade Centre
Moderator:
Rem Korteweg, Senior Research Fellow, Clingendael Institute
This podcast episode was recorded on 2 November 2023.
The 2023 edition of the AIG Global Trade Series explores the extent and impact of regionalisation on the global trade landscape.
A major theme of the year in global trade has been the reshaping of
global value chains and the consequent rise in supply chain risk. In response, policy-makers have focused on economic security - reducing unwanted economic dependencies and mitigating the risk of economic coercion. This has helped fuel industrial policy, given new significance to the use of subsidies, and encouraged diversification and 'friend shoring’.
Yet for all this, global trade is continuing. So how much change has actually taken place? Is the world de-globalising? And how have these trends manifested in Asia, Europe and the Americas?
In this podcast, the GTS 2023 season finale, experts discuss how global trade flows are evolving and assess the outlook for the continued regionalisation of trade in 2024.
___________________________________________
The Global Trade Series is a collaboration between AIG and the following international organisations with leading expertise on global trade: the Aspen Institute Germany; Chatham House (UK); CEBRI - the Brazilian Center for International Relations; the Clingendael Institute (The Netherlands); Institute of International Economic Law at Georgetown University Law Center (US); ISPI - the Italian Institute for International Political Studies; the Jacques Delors Institute (France); RIETI - the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (Japan) and the St. Gallen Endowment for Prosperity through Trade (Switzerland).
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast series are those of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of American International Group, Inc. or its subsidiaries or affiliates (“AIG”). Any content provided by our speakers are of their opinion and are not intended to malign any religion, ethnic group, club, organization, company, individual or anyone or anything. AIG makes no representations as to accuracy, completeness, correctness, or validity of any information provided during this podcast series and will not be liable for any errors, omissions, or delays in this information or any losses injuries, or damages arising from its use.
Where does globalisation go from here?
Changing dynamics of the global trade landscape
Panellists:
Cecilia Malmström, former European Commissioner for Trade; Nonresident Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Jeongmin Seong, Partner, McKinsey Global Institute (MGI)
Deborah Elms, Founder and Executive Director, Asian Trade Centre
Moderator:
Rem Korteweg, Senior Research Fellow, Clingendael Institute
This podcast episode was recorded on 2 November 2023.
The 2023 edition of the AIG Global Trade Series explores the extent and impact of regionalisation on the global trade landscape.
A major theme of the year in global trade has been the reshaping of global value chains and the consequent rise in supply chain risk. In response, policy-makers have focused on economic security - reducing unwanted economic dependencies and mitigating the risk of economic coercion. This has helped fuel industrial policy, given new significance to the use of subsidies, and encouraged diversification and 'friend shoring’.
Yet for all this, global trade is continuing. So how much change has actually taken place? Is the world de-globalising? And how have these trends manifested in Asia, Europe and the Americas?
In this podcast, the GTS 2023 season finale, experts discuss how global trade flows are evolving and assess the outlook for the continued regionalisation of trade in 2024.
___________________________________________
The Global Trade Series is a collaboration between AIG and the following international organisations with leading expertise on global trade: the Aspen Institute Germany; Chatham House (UK); CEBRI - the Brazilian Center for International Relations; the Clingendael Institute (The Netherlands); Institute of International Economic Law at Georgetown University Law Center (US); ISPI - the Italian Institute for International Political Studies; the Jacques Delors Institute (France); RIETI - the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (Japan) and the St. Gallen Endowment for Prosperity through Trade (Switzerland).
The views and opinions expressed in this podcast series are those of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of American International Group, Inc. or its subsidiaries or affiliates (“AIG”). Any content provided by our speakers are of their opinion and are not intended to malign any religion, ethnic group, club, organization, company, individual or anyone or anything. AIG makes no representations as to accuracy, completeness, correctness, or validity of any information provided during this podcast series and will not be liable for any errors, omissions, or delays in this information or any losses injuries, or damages arising from its use.
Back to the Future: a New Era of Managed Trade?
Globalisation’s next chapter is being written, driven by concerns about supply chain risks. The global trade in goods is increasingly seen through a security prism in capitals around the world and governments are developing new policies to reduce unwanted dependencies, seek new sources of leverage and guarantee supplies. Trade links are being reordered as policymakers scramble to secure access to strategic materials and positions in global value chains. Meanwhile, geopolitical turbulence and climate ambitions are giving rise to industrial policies, sanctions and a growing use of subsidies.
From investment screening to quotas to export controls, policymakers are proposing an increasing number of tools and policies to steer trade and investment flows. But despite worries about protectionism and fragmentation, trade continues as the private sector manages risk by embracing diversification. Elections in the US, EU, Mexico, UK, Indonesia, India and elsewhere may also lead to a reordering of the global politics of trade. Has the global trade system entered an era of managed trade? What will it mean for regional approaches to trade, and what does it mean for multilateralism and the WTO? Ultimately, the main question could be: who is in the driving seat in this brave new world for trade?