The energy trade has already delivered big gains—but David Szybunka says the cycle is far from over. The opportunity is simply changing.
David Szybunka, Senior Portfolio Manager & Managing Director of the Energy Team at Canoe Financial, joins Amber Kanwar to explain why he believes energy has entered the “optimism” stage of a much longer cycle. After large-cap oil producers led the rally, Szybunka is becoming more selective, finding better value in natural gas, mid-cap producers and oilfield services. He argues investors are too focused on today’s oil price and not enough on the structural forces reshaping the sector—from geopolitical risk and energy security to surging power demand from AI.
Szybunka also sees the ingredients for another wave of M&A. Canadian energy companies are generating significantly more cash, debt has fallen and valuations are increasingly diverging—creating opportunities for companies with stronger balance sheets to go shopping. He explains why owning long-life resources could become increasingly valuable as capital returns to the sector.
In the Mailbag, Szybunka weighs in on the outlook for Canadian natural gas and potential M&A opportunities, including Birchcliff Energy (BIR.TO), Advantage Energy (AAV.TO) and Kelt Exploration (KEL.TO). He also tackles West White Rose and what it could mean for Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO) and Suncor Energy (SU.TO), the Tamarack Valley Energy (TVE.TO)–Headwater Exploration (HWX.TO) merger and its Tributary Exploration spinout, Abaxx Technologies (ABXX.NE) following its dramatic selloff, and the outlook for oilfield services.
In Pro Picks, we first revisit Szybunka’s picks from his last appearance—and several were big winners. CES Energy Solutions (CEU.TO) gained 65%, Tamarack Valley Energy (TVE.TO) rose 84% and Headwater Exploration (HWX.TO) climbed 60%, while PrairieSky Royalty (PSK.TO) gained 30%. Tourmaline Oil (TOU.TO), however, returned just 4%—and Szybunka is bringing it back as a pick. He explains why he thinks North American natural gas resources are mispriced, why Tourmaline could be vulnerable to a bid, and why he also likes Athabasca Oil (ATH.TO) and SLB (SLB) as the energy cycle evolves.
Timestamps
04:26 Geopolitics, AI, and the energy demand outlook
06:34 Is energy entering an optimism wave?
09:54 Capital returning to Canadian energy
11:39 Canada’s changing energy investment climate
13:05 Large caps vs. overlooked intermediates
15:38 Why energy M&A could accelerate
17:50 Why David prefers large-cap natural gas
18:00 Oil supply shocks vs. long-term demand
20:37 How to invest during an oil shock
21:37 Natural gas, power demand, and global scarcity
24:29 The case for thinking in energy cycles
26:56 LNG, natural gas, and where David sees opportunity
30:04 West White Rose and the large-cap outlook
32:59 Growth, shareholder returns, and the cycle
34:40 Who could become an energy-sector acquirer?
35:49 Tamarack–Headwater merger and the Tributary spinout
38:14 ABAX Technologies: David’s investment view
43:51 Oilfield services and the global spending cycle
47:31 Tourmaline: why David sees natural gas value
54:40 Athabasca, Tamarack, and long-life resources
58:51 SLB and the case for global energy spending
63:04 Closing Bell: life beyond the markets
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DISCLAIMERS
The information provided in this podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice.The views expressed by the host and guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any organization or company. The host and guests may maintain positions in any securities discussed on the podcast. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any investment decisions.
In the Money delivers expert stock picks, actionable ideas, and timely money management tips. Hosted by business journalist Amber Kanwar, each episode features interviews with top portfolio managers who suggest ways to achieve good returns. Covering everything from ETFs and Canadian stocks to global investing trends, dividend strategies, and risk management, this show is made for DIY investors, stock market enthusiasts, and anyone looking to sharpen their financial strategy.
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