Macro Context briefing under 4 minutes. WTI near $62 testing $61.92; Brent ~ $66.10; Henry Hub ~$2.80; OPEC+ unwind (Sep +547 kb/d, Oct +137 kb/d); IEA vs OPEC demand divergence; China’s decelerating crude/LNG; key levels and 24h watchlist. Pre-roll included: “Welcome to Energy Markets Daily, an AI-powered podcast by Daily Dominance.”
Show Notes
Welcome to Energy Markets Daily, an AI-powered podcast by Daily Dominance. Wednesday, September 24, 2025 — Macro Context. Under 4 minutes. Opening snapshot (quick): WTI ~$62 testing $61.92. Brent ~$66.1. Henry Hub ~$2.80/MMBtu (range low). USO ~$73.45. UNG ~$12.15. UST 10Y ~4.12%–4.15%. Macro: Fed -25 bps digested; softer dollar mildly supportive, but supply still in control. Flash S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.8 (expanding, softer); ISM sub-50. U.S. power demand record trajectory 2025–26; solar leads; gas-fired power ~-3% y/y in 2025. Supply overhang: OPEC+ unwind: Sep +547 kb/d, Oct +137 kb/d. Iraq KRG export risk ~+230 kb/d. Kuwait capacity near decade high ~3.2 mb/d. EIA balance: inventory builds >2 mb/d through Q1 ’26. Demand lens: IEA 2025 demand +740 kb/d vs OPEC +1.3 mb/d (divergence). China: crude import growth decelerating; LNG imports -19% YTD; ~95% of incremental power demand met by renewables; stockpiling vs real burn. Gas focus: Henry Hub testing ~$2.80. Storage models: +70–90 Bcf for Thursday. Lower 48 output ~107 Bcf/d. Seasonal tailwind from Nov roll. Rebound needs $2.80 hold then $3.00 reclaim; <~$2.87 = bearish continuation. Key levels (24–48h): - WTI: $61.92 support; below opens $58–$59. Res: $63.80 / $65.00. - Brent: $66.00 then $65.50 supports; res: ~$67.40. - Henry Hub: $2.80 support; res: $2.97 / $3.02 / $3.05. - ETFs: USO basing; UNG needs HH $3.00. Tape movers: Dangote resumes gantry self-collection (Nigeria). ExxonMobil Singapore residue upgrade online (higher-value outputs). Chord Energy $550M Williston acquisition. EU sanction mechanics on Russian energy; ongoing strikes sustain risk premium. Positioning: Crude—respect downside; fade into resistance unless $61.92 holds decisively. Gas—tactically constructive if $2.80 holds and EIA print sub-consensus. Rates/dollar supportive at the margin but secondary to supply. Watchlist (24h): API→EIA setup, Lower 48 output drift, KRG export headlines, ECB/EU energy commentary. Energy capital inquiries: energymarkets@protonmail.com — subject: Energy Capital. This is market analysis, not investment advice.
What is Energy Markets Daily?
Energy Markets Daily delivers essential intelligence for global energy capital. Hosted with institutional authority, this daily brief covers WTI/Brent crude analysis, natural gas markets, energy M&A activity, drilling intelligence, and the geopolitical developments that drive billion-dollar energy decisions.
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Contact: energymarkets@protonmail.com
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