Beyond Markets

In this episode, we discuss about core personal consumption expenditures rising 4.7% year on year in January, higher than both the December reading and economist expectations. Economic data from durable goods orders to pending home sales, from Purchasing Managers indices to consumer sentiment surveys, have all been higher than expected.


Julius Baer economist David Kohl has revised our estimate for US GDP growth this year from 0.9% to 1.9%, and from no more rate hikes, he now expects 25 basis points each in the March and May Fed meetings. Higher rates have an impact on economic activity over time, so our GDP growth estimate for 2024 is revised down from 1.8% to just 0.3%.


Julius Baer CIO Yves Bonzon says that with the US economy in good shape, the bull market that started last October can continue, even if the policy rate gets to 5.25% and stays there for a while. The market is climbing the wall of worry, as it does in every new bull run.


This episode is presented by Mark Matthews Head Research Asia at Julius Baer.

What is Beyond Markets?

“Beyond Markets” by Julius Baer is a series featuring conversations with experts to share recent market developments, key insights, and strategic inputs from around the globe. In each episode, we cut through the noise to offer practical advice and macro research on today’s shifting economic and market landscape.
The information contained in this podcast is marketing material. Opinions expressed do not constitute independent financial/investment research, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities by Julius Baer. Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for important legal information prior to listening to this podcast.