On February 24, 2021 Fedwire broke down for several hours - it was the the feather that broke the economic recovery camel's back. Copper, gold, silver, the yuan, Kiwi dollar, Treasuries, swap spreads, OATs - even bitcoin - all saw their trajectories change for the worse.
------EP. 196 TOPICS------
00:00 INTRO: Fedwire broke for hours on February 24, 2021 and took recovery down with it.
01:18 Many headlines in February 2021 suggest economic recovery and a boom was ahead.
03:00 At 11:15 AM Fedwire, FedCash, FedLine, Check 21 all experienced disruptions.
04:37 Fed's Treasury Market Practices Group says it was not a cyberattack; everything was fine.
05:17 The IMF says they too do not know what happened; no details were provided.
06:01 Fedwire's break resulted in a sea-change across global markets in risk perceptions.
09:05 Headlines were positive in early 2021 but underneath there was rot in the world economy
12:22 Lots of markets inflected away from recovery in response to the Fedwire blackout.
16:00 OUTRO: Russia in 2022, like Covid in 2020, will be blamed for preexisting slowing.
----EP. 196 REFERENCES----
A Year Later, The Fact Fedwire Is Still There Tells Us Why Markets Have Done What They’ve Done: https://bit.ly/3srvhAg
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
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---------THE TEAM---------
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments. Master of ceremonies, Emil Kalinowski. Illustrations by David Parkins. Audio and video editor, Terence. Episode intro/outro music is "
Hong Kong Story" by
Lazer Boomerang.
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Jeff: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
Jeff: https://alhambrapartners.com/author/jsnider/
Emil: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
Emil: https://www.EuroDollarEnterprises.com
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Terence: https://www.VisualFocusMedia.com
Lazer Boomerang: https://www.facebook.com/lazerboomerang/
Lazer Boomerang: https://soundcloud.com/user-14207639