Gulf States Pressing Trump

Thursday, May 21, 2026. CRUDE OIL: EIA report (May 20, week ending May 15) bullish. U.S. commercial crude inventories fell 7.86M barrels to 445M barrels (2% below five-year average). Refinery crude inputs averaged 16.3M b/d (down 80K b/d from prior week), utilization 91.6% of operable capacity. Motor gasoline inventories down 1.5M barrels (5% below five-year average). Distillate fuel inventories up 0.4M barrels (9% below five-year average). Total commercial petroleum inventories declined 9M barrels week-over-week. Crude oil imports averaged 6M b/d (up 116K b/d from prior week). WTI spot price May 15: $108.99/bbl (up $10.12 from prior week, up $45.15 year-over-year). May 21: WTI trading near $99/bbl (down from recent highs) amid easing geopolitical tensions. NATURAL GAS: Storage report today 10:30 AM ET. Last week: Working gas 2,290 Bcf (51 Bcf above year-ago, 140 Bcf above five-year average). Analysts expect 96 Bcf build (range 85-100 Bcf). Henry Hub June contract $2.86-$2.88, soft fundamentals, above-average storage, LNG maintenance suppressing demand. GEOPOLITICS: VP Vance said talks with Iran have seen substantial advancement. Trump paused planned Tuesday strike at request of Gulf leaders due to "serious negotiations." Iran coordinated passage of 26 vessels through Strait in past 24 hours, asserting continued control despite US naval blockade. US and Iranian officials reportedly close to one-page MOU that would formally end current phase of conflict, launch 30 days of detailed talks on sanctions relief, nuclear curbs, Strait transit rules. Iran reviewing US draft ending war while leaving core issues for follow-on negotiations. Gulf states pressing Trump to prioritize negotiations over strikes. Crude pulled back from $108.99 to $99 on easing tensions. If deal materializes, expect further downside toward $85-$90. If talks collapse, back to $110+. Gas in holding pattern, storage builds large, demand soft, prices stable. Capital preservation first.

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