Show Notes — Current Market & News Briefing (Wed, 8 Oct 2025, US Open)
Focus: FX, commodities, trade/tariffs, geopolitics
Excluded: Equities, fixed income (unless tied to FX), crypto
FX
- USD: Extends run as JPY and NZD weaken.
- JPY: USD/JPY pressing highs after softer Japan wage data; officials reiterate vigilance on disorderly moves.
- NZD: Lags after RBNZ -50 bp to 2.50%, guidance open to further easing.
- EUR: Heavy amid French political uncertainty and weak German orders; EUR/USD ~1.16.
- GBP: Softer vs USD, steadier vs EUR; few domestic drivers.
Commodities
- Gold: Broke to new ATH above $4,000/oz, then consolidated; safe-haven demand elevated.
- Oil: Firmer as China reopens and headlines stay constructive; OPEC+ not discussing >137k bpd for Nov; mixed private inventories (crude build, product draws).
- Metals: Copper consolidates prior surge; activity subdued with post-holiday normalization.
Trade, Tariffs & Tech Policy
- US–EU: Brussels says fresh US trade demands risk hollowing out prior understanding; Washington frames push as “reciprocal, fair and balanced.”
- Export controls: Continued US drive to align allied semiconductor curbs and tighten China-linked tech restrictions.
- North America: Ongoing US–Canada engagement (steel, aluminium, energy) remains in focus.
Geopolitics
- Middle East (Gaza): Talks in Egypt described as “very positive”; hostage lists under discussion. Hamas insists any deal must end the war; Israeli sources stress adherence to US-backed framework.
- Russia–Ukraine: Moscow signals it won’t maintain obligations under the plutonium agreement with the US; rhetoric about cross-border strikes remains elevated.
US Policy Backdrop
- Government shutdown: Ongoing; White House flags job eliminations update in the coming days; some support programs delayed or reconsidered.
Watch next: USD/JPY near multi-month highs, NZD reaction post-RBNZ, gold behavior above $4k, oil vs. inventories and OSPs, concrete steps in US–EU trade stance, and any breakthroughs in Gaza talks.