The Confluence Mailbag – Escalation Dominance and the Costs of a Recession-Free World (11/5/25)

In this episode, Bill O’Grady and Mark Keller unpack the concept of escalation dominance in the US-China relationship and how societies endure pain. They consider the likelihood and potential depth of recession, examining the trade-offs that arise when the Fed and other policymakers intervene to prevent downturns and identifying areas of malinvestment in today’s markets. Additional topics include the forthcoming Supreme Court ruling on tariff legality and their outlook for gold.

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What is Confluence Podcasts?

Podcasts from Confluence Investment Management LLC, featuring the periodic Confluence of Ideas series, as well as two bi-weekly series: the Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly and the Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report (new episodes posted on alternating Mondays).