The headlines about China's economy often tell two contradictory stories at once: recovery and stagnation, consumer confidence and persistent caution, tech boom and structural drag. Making sense of what's actually happening requires someone who's tracking the data closely, week by week, from the ground up. Robert Wu does exactly that through Baiguan, a consultancy and popular newsletter that covers the Chinese economy, consumer trends, and business developments.
In this episode, Robert gives us his unfiltered read on the state of China's economy in 2026. He breaks down two trends his recent newsletter highlighted: what's happening in the real estate market and whether salary recovery is real or overstated. He also assesses consumer sentiment and what it's actually showing up in spending behaviour across categories.
Robert then takes us through a series of sector-specific spotlights: the auto market and whether robotaxis are genuinely scaling or still in hype territory; Pop Mart's trajectory and what it signals about Chinese consumer brands going global; DeepSeek's latest model and what it reveals about China's AI competitive position; and the food delivery war between Meituan and its challengers, and what that tells us about the state of China's consumer internet.
He closes with the key variables that will shape the rest of the Chinese economy in 2026, and what international businesses should understand about China that isn't making it into the headlines.
Discussion Points
· What Baiguan is, who Robert writes for, and what led him to cover the Chinese economy
· High-level read on the state of China's economy in 2026: recovery, stagnation, or something more complex
· Real estate market update: what the data is showing and whether the sector has turned a corner
· Salary recovery: how real it is, which segments are seeing it, and what it means for consumer spending
· Consumer sentiment assessment: how people are actually feeling and how it's showing up in spending patterns
· Auto market dynamics and the robotaxi question: genuine scaling or early-stage hype
· Pop Mart: bullish or bearish, and what its trajectory tells us about C-brand globalisation
· DeepSeek's new model and what it signals about China's AI competitive position relative to the West
· The food delivery war: who's winning, who's losing, and what it reveals about China's consumer internet
· Key variables to watch for the rest of 2026 and what international businesses are missing about China