Most XPs find a giving problem 60 days too late. We break down using AI to surface giving trends, flag lapsed givers, and stress-test budget scenarios. Tune in for how to turn your ChMS export into a forecast you can take to the elders, while keeping human judgment on the final call.
In this episode
Spotting lapsed givers before they're gone
Simple scenario forecasting from your giving data
Why the numbers inform the decision but don't make it
Check out more episodes and resources at https://executivepastor.io
0:00 Intro and welcome
0:31 Today's topic: using AI to analyze giving trends and forecast your budget
0:44 Looking back at the 2008-09 Great Recession and what this would have helped with
1:35 When do most churches actually find out they have a giving problem
2:07 Using AI to shorten the timing on financial decisions
2:51 Turning a financial report into a real forecast, not an unopened spreadsheet
3:09 A change in giving pattern is a pastoral moment
3:09 Defining "lapsed" for your church and feeding your giving export into AI
4:34 Building a monthly habit of reviewing lapsed givers
4:55 Scenario forecasting: trailing averages and above, equal, or below budget
6:53 Planning for the upside: what if giving comes in above forecast
7:18 Why the numbers inform the decision but can't make it
7:51 The risk of over-trusting an AI forecast
8:24 Real-world example: giving trends near a military base
9:02 Where human judgment still has the final call
9:29 A budget as guardrails, and the gut check before every major decision
10:20 Trusting what's really happening in people's lives, not just the data
11:20 Recap and this week's challenge: run a lapsed-giver report
11:56 A look at episode 7