Technicals: Week 29

Tuesday, July 21, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading near $81.90-$82.20 (Sep 2026 contract). Recent momentum bullish; strong buy signals on moving averages. Price action tested/breached ~$79 level in mid-July. KEY RESISTANCE LEVELS: $83.26-$83.38 (Pivot Point 1st Resistance/R1 Classic/Fibonacci), $83.91-$84.60 (R2/1-month high area), $84.73-$85.08 (2nd Resistance/price 2 SD resistance), $87.40 (3rd Resistance Pivot), $88.51 (14-day RSI at 70%). KEY SUPPORT LEVELS: $80.59-$80.78 (Pivot Point/S2-S3 area Classic/Fibonacci), $79.12 (1st Support Pivot), $76.45-$76.54 (2nd Support/9-day MA crossover area), $74.98 (3rd Support Pivot), $67.12 (13-week/1-month low longer-term). TECHNICAL INDICATORS (JUL 20): RSI(14) 51.712 (Neutral), MACD(12,26) 0.23 (Buy), Overall Technical Summary Strong Buy (11 buy signals from moving averages; 6 buy from indicators), Moving Averages Majority Buy (MA5, MA10, MA50, MA100, MA200 all Buy; one Sell on MA20 simple), Stochastic(9,6) 66.444 (Buy), ADX(14) 32.867 (Buy; indicates trend strength), Williams %R -42.577 (Buy). ADDITIONAL CONTEXT: TradingView/analyst ideas highlight zones near $76.50-$77.20 as notable supports; upside targets around $87.50+ in bullish scenarios; pivot points and moving averages (e.g., 40-day MA) provide dynamic levels. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Henry Hub trading near $2.84-$2.86/MMBtu (front-month NGQ26 or similar). Recent spot ~$2.83/MMBtu. KEY SUPPORT LEVELS: $2.80-$2.83 (immediate support; recent daily lows; key floor), $3.00 (psychological/technical support; widely referenced critical level; major floor with buyers active), $3.05-$3.14 (support cluster; pivot points and channel bottoms). KEY RESISTANCE LEVELS: $2.90-$2.91 (recent highs; short-term ceiling in intraday ranges), $3.13-$3.23 (nearby contract-specific pivots and prior reaction highs), $3.38-$3.40 (first notable upside barrier; crucial resistance), $3.47-$3.53 (Fibonacci resistance; 38.2% retracement and pivot points), $3.60-$3.65 (prior swing highs; 50% Fib retracements; proximity to longer-term moving averages), $3.62-$4.05 (200-day EMA zone and 50-day MA targets; potential upside magnets if momentum builds). TECHNICAL SIGNALS: Indicators showing "Strong Sell" bias recently; price consolidating near lower levels; potential for volatility around storage reports and weather. LONGER-TERM CONTEXT: 2026 EIA average projection near $3.60; front-month futures highly volatile. EIA WEEKLY NATURAL GAS STORAGE REPORT (WEEK ENDING JUL 10, 2026; RELEASED JUL 16): Working gas in storage 3,024 Bcf (Lower 48 states). Weekly change net injection of +41 Bcf (from 2,983 Bcf prior week). Year-over-year comparison 21 Bcf (0.7%) below same week 2025. Five-year average comparison 181 Bcf (6.4%) above five-year (2021-2025) average of 2,843 Bcf. Prior week (ending Jul 3; released Jul 9) 2,983 Bcf after +61 Bcf injection. MARKET CONTEXT: +41 Bcf print within typical consensus range (~38-45 Bcf); roughly in line with surveys; ended short streak of larger-than-expected builds. PRICE REACTION: NYMEX August contract traded near $2.85-$2.92/MMBtu in immediate aftermath; front month in lower range after breaking below $3.00. BROADER INVENTORY OUTLOOK (EIA STEO JUL 2026): Inventories remained above five-year average through much of forecast period due to record production; end-October 2026 working gas projected at ~3,966 Bcf (5% above average). FUNDAMENTALS: Production eased slightly; LNG feedgas flows impacted by maintenance (e.g., Freeport); weather supported power-sector demand. REPORT SCHEDULE: Weekly releases Thursdays 10:30 a.m. ET; next after Jul 16 would be Jul 23 (covering week ending Jul 17). THE READ: Crude WTI near $82, strong buy signals, resistance $83.26-$83.38/$84.73-$85.08/$87.40, support $80.59-$80.78/$79.12/$76.45-$76.54, bullish momentum intact. Gas Henry Hub near $2.84-$2.86, support $2.80-$2.83/$3.00, resistance $2.90-$2.91/$3.38-$3.40/$3.60-$3.65, strong sell bias, consolidating near lower levels. Storage 3,024 Bcf, +41 Bcf injection, 0.7% below year-ago, 6.4% above five-year average, inventories elevated, record production supporting builds. WEEK 29 TECHNICALS THESIS: Crude strong buy signals, resistance $83.26-$85.08, support $80.59-$76.45, bullish momentum, upside targets $87.50+. Gas support $2.80-$3.00, resistance $3.38-$4.05, strong sell bias, consolidating, volatility around storage and weather. Storage elevated inventories, record production, end-October projection 3,966 Bcf, 5% above average. Trade the charts, respect the levels.

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