Show Notes – 18 September 2025
Today’s episode covers the latest developments across FX, commodities, trade, and geopolitics:
- FX Market Focus:
- Dollar trims post-FOMC gains after Powell’s hawkish press conference; policy path remains data-dependent.
- EUR/USD firm above 1.18 after ECB’s de Guindos signals balanced inflation risks.
- GBP/USD back below 1.37 ahead of today’s Bank of England decision; QT pace expected to slow.
- Norges Bank cuts rates 25bps but delivers hawkish commentary; krone pares losses.
- NZD under heavy pressure after Q2 GDP contracted 0.6% Y/Y, prompting full pricing of an RBNZ cut.
- Tariffs & Trade:
- China drops Google antitrust probe during US trade talks, seen as goodwill gesture.
- Beijing to review approvals for TikTok-related tech and IP transfers.
- US lawmakers express concern over TikTok deal structure.
- Brazil’s Lula criticizes US tariffs, warns of higher costs for US consumers, signs decree exempting some data-center equipment from tax.
- Commodities:
- Oil trades steady in a narrow range; Qatar raises November Al-Shaheen crude price.
- Russia plans to lower budget oil-price cutoff by $1 each year through 2030.
- Gold rebounds into positive territory near $3,670/oz as dollar eases.
- Copper falls back under $10,000/t amid mixed global sentiment.
- Geopolitics:
- Syrian President al-Sharaa says security talks with Israel could yield results in coming days, though normalization is not yet on the table.
- No US pressure on Damascus to reach a deal, according to al-Sharaa.
These are the key market-moving themes as we head into the Bank of England decision, US jobless claims, and more trade and geopolitical updates later in the day.