Show Notes — Current Market & News Briefing (Fri, 10 Oct 2025, US Open)
Focus: FX, commodities, trade/tariffs, geopolitics
Excluded: Equities, fixed income (unless tied to FX), crypto
FX
- USD: Firm into CPI as BLS prepares September release despite shutdown.
- JPY: MoF flags “one-sided, rapid” moves; vigilance for disorderly FX reiterated; USD/JPY eases below 153 after firmer PPI.
- EUR: Subdued below 1.16 with few fresh bullish drivers.
- GBP: Nursing losses; limited UK catalysts.
- AUD/NZD: Antipodeans stabilize on stronger CNY fix, but NZD stays heavy after RBNZ -50 bp and open door to more cuts.
Commodities
- Oil: Lacklustre; Gaza ceasefire framework tempers risk premium; Saudi crude flows to China seen lower Nov vs Oct.
- Gold: Below $4,000/oz after pullback from records; haven bid softer alongside firmer USD.
- Metals: Copper weaker on renewed US–China trade tensions and cautious China tone.
Trade, Tariffs & Tech Policy
- China: Customs crackdown on US AI chips reported; new export controls (Dec 1) on rare earths, battery/graphite, super-hard materials; tougher rules for dual-use and military end-users.
- US: Considering excluding generics from pharma tariff plan (not final); probing channels skirting chip rules; progress on allowing US chip exports to Saudi Arabia.
- Bilateral tracks: US–Japan coordination on agreement implementation; US–India review progress; Vietnam–US talks set for Oct/Nov.
- White House rhetoric: Signals willingness to curb “massive” imports from China; intends to raise soybeans with Xi.
Geopolitics
- Middle East (Gaza): Israel approves plan tied to phase-one ceasefire (hostage-prisoner exchange, initial withdrawal to agreed line); timelines vary, implementation could begin within days. Hamas declares war ended with mediator/US guarantees; US to support via small joint task-force presence with Egypt/Qatar; Houthis say they’ll monitor compliance.
- Russia–Ukraine: Mass Russian strikes on energy infrastructure; widespread eastern outages reported; US hints at additional sanctions on Moscow.
- Taiwan/China: Taipei warns of intensified hybrid warfare (AI-enabled cyber ops, gray-zone pressure) targeting infrastructure and public trust.
- UN: Plans ~25% cut to peacekeeping deployments amid funding constraints; UNSC to meet on US–Venezuela tensions.
Watch next: US CPI for FX direction; concrete steps and timing on the Gaza implementation; enforcement and market impact of China’s export controls and US chip-rule probes; energy-system risks from Ukraine strikes and any spillover into commodity pricing.