Ejaaz: Three weeks ago, rumors broke that a major AI lab had built a model more powerful,
Ejaaz: more dangerous, and more expensive than any AI model that we had seen before.
Ejaaz: We didn't know which model lab it would be. We didn't know what the model was called.
Ejaaz: And then just a few days ago, Anthropic leaked a model called Claude Mythos,
Ejaaz: which is supposedly more powerful than any model that they've ever built before,
Ejaaz: a tier above Opus 4.6, which is what we see today.
Ejaaz: This model is actually so good that it is considered a cyber security threat
Ejaaz: and can't be rolled out to the public just yet.
Ejaaz: But it's not just Anthropic that's building a model that is close to AGI like this.
Ejaaz: OpenAI has a model codenamed Spud, Google has a model codenamed Agent Smith,
Ejaaz: and there's many more to come this year.
Josh: But the Anthropic leak wasn't intentional. This was discovered by accident last
Josh: Thursday, March 26th, by a Fortune reporter who discovered that Anthropic's
Josh: content management system had a configuration error.
Josh: And for those who aren't familiar, the content management system,
Josh: it's how the web server serves files.
Josh: And within that, there is a config error that leaked nearly 3,000 unpublished
Josh: assets sitting in this publicly searchable database.
Josh: Anyone could find them. So two independent security researchers,
Josh: they went through, they confirmed.
Josh: And among these files were two blog posts of two models named Claude Mythos
Josh: and a new tier named Capybara.
Josh: Anthropic immediately removed access to all of
Josh: this as soon as it came out but then later on an anthropic spokesperson
Josh: confirmed that it represents a step change in
Josh: ai performance and is the most capable model we've ever built so they confirmed
Josh: what we're seeing here is real now the problem is like this image suggests on
Josh: screen we're missing a lot of information this is a leak that something like
Josh: this exists but we don't we're not sure exactly what what we do know is that
Josh: there is the new model tier, Ejaz, like you mentioned, named Capybara.
Josh: It is the new tier that sits above Opus. So now the lineup will kind of look
Josh: like Haiku, Sonnet, Opus, and then Capybara at the top.
Josh: It doesn't really sound quite right. Maybe that's an experimental name.
Josh: They might find something better.
Josh: And then Mythos is the specific model name within that tier.
Josh: So you can think of Capybara as the weight class and Mythos as like the fighter.
Josh: It's the specific model.
Josh: Now, according to the leaked documents, this dramatically outperforms Claude
Josh: Opus 4.6 on basically everything, but particularly coding, academic reasoning,
Josh: and the cybersecurity benchmarks.
Josh: And I think the cybersecurity one is one of the more interesting points here,
Josh: because it's so powerful as cybersecurity that one of the main reasons why they
Josh: can't release it is to actually prevent people from using it maliciously. Is that right?
Ejaaz: Yeah. So actually, if we rewind to about a month and a half ago,
Ejaaz: Anthropik's head of AI security, who's actually a legend in the industry,
Ejaaz: gave a talk about Claude Opus 4.6, when it had just released.
Ejaaz: And his talk described how the model was pointed at five to 10 very popular
Ejaaz: open source code bases with no instructions given.
Ejaaz: And what the model did was very, very interesting.
Ejaaz: It scanned all those code bases and discovered 500 major security flaws.
Ejaaz: Expert human AI security researchers couldn't discover in decades that they'd
Ejaaz: been staring and using these exact code bases.
Ejaaz: So Claude did in a couple of hours what many security researchers couldn't do.
Ejaaz: We're talking about like millions of compute hours and time spent staring at
Ejaaz: these code bases, testing it.
Ejaaz: Claude, Opus 4.6 managed to figure this out. Now, this created a lot of excitement,
Ejaaz: but also a lot of concern.
Ejaaz: Now, because these AI security researchers had a good heart,
Ejaaz: they weren't using this maliciously.
Ejaaz: But if you could imagine that if this model had been placed to,
Ejaaz: say, a malicious actor, they could have exploited these for many different reasons.
Ejaaz: And so these exploits were surfaced and they were fixed. But the question now
Ejaaz: becomes, what if a more powerful model was made more readily available to anyone
Ejaaz: or an attacker, for example, a foreign adversary that could discover and exploit any future bugs?
Ejaaz: That's the concern that's around that i have personally around
Ejaaz: clode mythos or capybara this model is supposedly
Ejaaz: meant to be a tier above anything that we've ever seen before apparently it
Ejaaz: is amazing at discovering and exploiting exploits
Ejaaz: so if it is let's say two orders of magnitude let's be conservative two orders
Ejaaz: of magnitude better than opus 4.6 we could have a real problem on our hands
Ejaaz: and so what anthropic has done now is they've started to slow release this secret
Ejaaz: model mythos and capybara to cybersecurity experts first.
Ejaaz: Why? Because they want them to figure out how they can harden their own defense
Ejaaz: systems before they publicly release this model.
Ejaaz: And someone, maybe a nefarious attacker might use it for unachievable gain.
Josh: I think it's ironic that the company building what it describes as an AI with
Josh: unprecedented cybersecurity capabilities leaked it because someone misconfigured their blog.
Josh: Like the irony there is too strong. And you have to wonder, you have to really
Josh: ask yourself the question, well, what if this model so smart that it's leaking
Josh: itself if it's like poking holes to like let people secretly find it i don't know
Josh: The one thing for sure is that, one, this model is going to be incredibly expensive
Josh: to run currently, at least.
Josh: That's part of the reason why we're not seeing it now. But the second is it's
Josh: going to be unbelievably powerful.
Josh: And the progress that we've had in the last year is going to probably look like
Josh: nothing compared to what we're going to get for the next three quarters.
Josh: The market also very much felt the effects of this because, oh my God,
Josh: these stock charts look absolutely horrendous.
Ejaaz: Yeah, CrowdStrike, which is like the major cybersecurity firm,
Ejaaz: was down a couple billion on the news.
Ejaaz: And Palo Alto Networks, which is another similar company that competes in this
Ejaaz: firm, also suffered from this.
Ejaaz: Now, these two charts that I'm looking at right now for these specific companies,
Ejaaz: Josh, gives me a little PTSD or deja vu.
Ejaaz: Because we were talking about this, I think, four weeks ago when Anthropic released
Ejaaz: their security review clawed feature.
Ejaaz: Which, you know, wasn't anything to do about Mythos, but basically helped review
Ejaaz: the Vibe code that you produced using Claude. And so cybersecurity stocks dumped again.
Ejaaz: This is happening seemingly on a monthly basis at this point.
Josh: Even though these charts are down quite a bit, I'm not sure how concerned the
Josh: market needs to be immediately because it appears as if this new model that's coming,
Josh: this new cybersecurity specialist is really compute intensive,
Josh: so much so that it's almost going to be impossible for them to run across all
Josh: the accounts currently without some serious compression and iteration and figuring
Josh: out how to run this more optimally.
Josh: And it seems like we're starting to see those growing pains, right? It's like,
Josh: As they're training models like this, as they're running them on their own servers,
Josh: it's starting to affect the average user.
Josh: I know sometimes I'll wake up and I'll feel like my opus is running a little
Josh: bit dumber than it was the day before. And we actually have data that backs this up.
Ejaaz: Yeah, so basically over the weekend, Clawed servers basically went down or were majorly impaired.
Ejaaz: There were a bunch of different outages. People were reporting very,
Ejaaz: very reduced quality in their interactions with Clawed.
Ejaaz: And this has been kind of like a repeating trend over the last couple of weeks.
Ejaaz: And now we might have the answer why.
Ejaaz: Typically, major AI labs, the last public bit of information that we had was
Ejaaz: from OpenAI's 2025 run of a major model.
Ejaaz: They dedicated 30% of their available compute to a training run.
Ejaaz: Now, the rumors state that for Claude Mythos, they've dedicated even more and
Ejaaz: that's like the major architectural breakthrough that they've made.
Ejaaz: If they've done that, that might be the reason why we aren't being able to use
Ejaaz: the best version of Claude as consumers because they're too busy using the compute
Ejaaz: to train the next step or tier in model.
Ejaaz: I don't know if this is a good or bad thing, but one thing it definitely like
Ejaaz: screams at me is like, we need a ton more compute.
Josh: Big time. And it's amazing to think about how far we've come just in the last
Josh: three months leading up to this moment here.
Josh: I mean, when you think about over the winter break is when people really start
Josh: to take vibe coding seriously.
Josh: And since then, companies have gone from a very small percentage of code to almost 100% of code.
Josh: I mean, this is saying 80% plus of all code deployed is written by CloudCo just for Anthropic.
Josh: It's unbelievable we started with opus 4.5 which
Josh: was released in november and then opus 4.6 came
Josh: in february which took us from a 200 000 token contacts
Josh: went into a million and now whatever this new thing is is going to really drive
Josh: up the coding capabilities in a really big way and i think it's probably worth
Josh: checking in on which model is going to be the strongest model which company
Josh: has the best model through the end of june and thanks to polymarket we have
Josh: some interesting stats on this.
Josh: So the people are betting that Anthropic has a 66% chance of having the best
Josh: AI model in June, which is huge.
Josh: And that number has increased very significantly recently. If you look just
Josh: back in February, it was Google who was the heavy favorite with a almost 80%
Josh: chance or 70% chance of having the best model.
Josh: That has changed recently in a big way, perhaps because of this leak.
Josh: But I'm not sure if this is fully up to date and
Josh: it may be missing some information because we have some news on open ai and
Josh: google who are planning to release something really important too and thank
Josh: you for probably for sponsoring that part of the show but let's talk about open
Josh: ai there's a new code name spud model that's coming and this is probably going
Josh: to be the mythos competitor so what is this looking like yeah
Ejaaz: Um that's the issue we don't really know all of these models we don't have the
Ejaaz: the specs we need the specs to talk about them.
Ejaaz: There's a few trends or patterns that are happening amongst the hottest,
Ejaaz: or should I say, top two or three AI labs.
Ejaaz: We've got Anthropic Releasing Mythos, which is their AGI or pre-AGI model,
Ejaaz: a massive, massive leap ahead.
Ejaaz: OpenAI is working on the same thing. They've been secretively working on a larger model.
Ejaaz: This has gone through a few different names. If you remember,
Ejaaz: Josh, by the end of the year, I think it was referred to as codename Sprout.
Ejaaz: And now it's referred to as Spud. So I don't know if that implies that it's
Ejaaz: grown massively since then.
Ejaaz: It's growing. But these models are supposedly meant to be anywhere between 10
Ejaaz: to 20 trillion parameter models.
Ejaaz: Now, for context, the largest models that we currently look at right now is
Ejaaz: between one to two trillion.
Ejaaz: So this is a major order of magnitude larger model.
Ejaaz: They're going to be compute intensive. They're going to be very expensive to serve.
Ejaaz: So we need to figure out how to scale AI infrastructure and a bunch of other things.
Ejaaz: But OpenAI's model is codenamed Spud, and it's meant to be the competitor to
Ejaaz: Mythos. People are anticipating that it might be something like GPT 5.5 or rather GPT 6.
Ejaaz: So again, a tier above what we see today. It's going to be advanced in coding,
Ejaaz: reasoning, and a lot of the things Anthropics is as well.
Ejaaz: When I look at this, Josh, personally to me, this seems to be,
Ejaaz: one, a massive bid to try and leapfrog each other.
Ejaaz: And number two, maybe try and juice their numbers ahead of a potential IPA.
Ejaaz: I don't know whether your reaction to this is the same, but that's like my gut
Ejaaz: reaction when I read news like this.
Josh: Yeah, it's probably both. They want to juice up things before the IPO,
Josh: but they also just want to win.
Josh: And I have some pretty strong speculations just based on vibes of what this is going to look like.
Josh: I think we've been seeing this recent convergence around OpenAI,
Josh: particularly on focus and on really dialing in what they're focused on.
Josh: And we saw a big move last week when they removed Sora. They totally destroyed Sora.
Josh: They moved a lot of the teams together. They made their chief of product,
Josh: um the chief of like agi release and it appears as if they're building a mega
Josh: app based on the rumors so
Josh: Part of the reason why I have a difficult time using OpenAI's products is there's
Josh: kind of spread out everywhere.
Josh: There's like the Sora app was one, there's Codex, then there's their browser,
Josh: then there's ChatGPT, and there's a lot of different software.
Josh: And the same is true with their models, or it was at least, where there was
Josh: GPT 5.3 Codex, and there was 5.3 High, Mid, Low.
Josh: There's all these different models that really complicate things and confuse things.
Josh: With 5.4, they made a singular model. Now 5.4 does your coding and it does the reasoning all in one.
Josh: And what I suspect with this new model, Codename Spud, is going to be the kind
Josh: of pinnacle of this focus, where I'm hoping they release this with their new
Josh: application, with a singular model.
Josh: So there's one model that is all-knowing. There's one application,
Josh: similar to what Anthropic does with the Cloud Desktop app, that has all of the
Josh: functionality under one roof.
Josh: And I think they're going to probably use this as a point to really...
Josh: Lean into that focus instead of distributing this across a lot of different areas.
Josh: And I'm hopeful that that will meaningfully change OpenAI more so than it'll
Josh: change Anthropik because it actually changes the way that users interface with
Josh: the product and it becomes a much better product.
Ejaaz: Yeah, I think for the majority of last year, I was pretty upset with the way
Ejaaz: that SAM and OpenAI were focusing on so many different things.
Ejaaz: I was just like, just focus on creating a really good model.
Ejaaz: You're being left behind in coding, Anthropik's eating your lunch, like figure this out.
Ejaaz: And then since their code read of like, what was it, November last year,
Ejaaz: they've been like reallocating compute, money, data, and all their resources
Ejaaz: to focus on building the best general model and the best coding model.
Ejaaz: So we're starting to see the fruits of that labor.
Ejaaz: I have a lot of faith now in OpenAI that they're going to produce a really good
Ejaaz: product that will compete with the likes of Anthropic, which have been eating their lunch.
Ejaaz: When I look at like the last week, it seems like it's pretty negative for OpenAI.
Ejaaz: You mentioned that they killed Sora.
Ejaaz: They also killed the $1 billion deal that they had signed with Disney.
Ejaaz: And they also shut down ChatGPT adult mode and a bunch of like consumer shopping
Ejaaz: apps and their like app marketplace as well.
Ejaaz: They're just focused on these few things right now.
Ejaaz: But then the other thing is Sam is also kind of defaulting on a few of the major
Ejaaz: GPU and data center deals, right?
Ejaaz: So we had the OpenAI and Oracle Abilene deal fall through where they couldn't
Ejaaz: finance it for a variety of different reasons.
Ejaaz: Then the other thing is they're defaulting on purchasing up to 40% of the world's
Ejaaz: memory supply because they haven't figured out their finances right now.
Ejaaz: So I think that OpenAI is going through kind of like a puberty period where
Ejaaz: they're figuring their stuff out and where to reallocate resources.
Ejaaz: But I think they're going to pull through.
Josh: And it also seems like this is indeed a serious breakthrough.
Josh: I mean, Sam, in an internal memo that got leaked out to employees,
Josh: he said things are moving faster than many of us expected.
Josh: And he called it a very strong model that can really accelerate the economy.
Josh: That seems like pretty large claims to make internally with employees who are
Josh: also kind of in the know and aware of what's going on.
Josh: And I just think that a lot of us who are sitting outside these labs are not
Josh: entirely wrapping our head around how much progress is actually about to hit
Josh: us over the next couple of months with these new model releases.
Josh: It seems like they're step function improvements.
Josh: And one of the employees from OpenAI actually hinted that Spud contains a capability
Josh: that is very different from what we've seen before. So while there aren't specifics,
Josh: there are clearly a lot of these huge novel breakthroughs incoming,
Josh: which is worth looking out for.
Josh: There's one final model release, model leak that we have from Google,
Josh: who has been doing well, kind of chugging along slowly in the background.
Josh: And this is called Agent Smith.
Josh: It's a secret AI tool. Do you have any information on this one, EJS?
Ejaaz: Yeah, so there was like a leaked report from an insider at Google.
Ejaaz: Apparently, Google employees are using a new internal tool called AgentSmith
Ejaaz: that can automate tasks such as coding, according to three people that were familiar with it.
Ejaaz: The way that this product is supposed to work is within their Vibe coding platform
Ejaaz: called Antigravity, which exists today but hasn't really had a major upgrade
Ejaaz: for, let's say, a couple months now, which is like an eternity in the AI world.
Ejaaz: So they're releasing a new AI model called Agent Smith that is supposed to take
Ejaaz: a multi-agent approach and use an upgraded version of Gemini 3.1.
Ejaaz: So it's probably not going to be 3.1. It might be 3.5 or maybe even 4.
Ejaaz: Again, another order of magnitude leap up. So what we're seeing here is Google
Ejaaz: working on an AI coding model competitor to try and catch up to Anthropic and
Ejaaz: the likes of OpenAI's codecs.
Ejaaz: You've got OpenAI trying to reallocate resources and focus on building the best
Ejaaz: general model and catch up with Anthropic, which they have at coding.
Ejaaz: Then you have Anthropic trying to keep these two at bay and make the next order
Ejaaz: of magnitude up spending all their compute but coming at the expense of serving
Ejaaz: their existing users which they're adding like a million a day reporting you know
Ejaaz: Claude servers being down and reduced quality of usage. So this is a very,
Ejaaz: I can like feel the tension in the air between these three companies right now.
Ejaaz: I don't know what Mets is doing.
Ejaaz: I don't know where Grok is. I'm rooting for them. I hope they catch up.
Ejaaz: But it seems to be these three major competitors right now that are in the running for winning this race.
Josh: They're firing. I mean, in the last 90 days, since we started this year to now,
Josh: we went from 200,000 context windows to a million.
Josh: We went from these coding assistants to compiler writing
Josh: agents who are completely capable of writing a very small amount
Josh: now over a quarter of google's production software and 80 plus
Josh: of anthropic software everything we learned this week the frontier is
Josh: going to keep moving faster and faster so we're in
Josh: for a crazy q2 q3 q4 just a
Josh: crazy 2026 and as all these things happen as these
Josh: ipos start to happen and they get even more fundraising to deploy
Josh: these ai data centers at scale things are really going
Josh: to get weird in a hurry but we will be here to cover it as always um if you
Josh: enjoyed this episode please don't forget share it with your friends uh like
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Josh: spotify or rss you could rate us five stars there it's always really appreciated
Josh: you just any final notes before we sign off for the day we've
Ejaaz: Been absolutely killing it on our side uh loads of new subscribers loads of
Ejaaz: new listeners thank you guys so much for for joining us um and yeah i have a
Ejaaz: request because we always like to give out homework at the end of the episode
Ejaaz: um if you're listening to this and you are a insider at anthropic open air or
Ejaaz: google and you are willing to give an anonymous tip to our accounts,
Ejaaz: please spin up an Anon account on x slash Twitter and DM us.
Ejaaz: I would love to hear from you.
Josh: That'd be great. Well, yeah, thank you guys for watching. We'll see you in the next one.