WEBVTT NOTE This file was generated by Descript 00:00:05.007 --> 00:00:07.227 Introduction: Welcome to the Fiscal Firehouse, a podcast 00:00:07.227 --> 00:00:10.047 dedicated to promoting financial literacy to firefighters. 00:00:10.197 --> 00:00:14.757 I'm your co-host, John Beatty, executive board member of Local 1309, a lieutenant, 00:00:14.877 --> 00:00:16.917 and also a certified financial planner. 00:00:17.247 --> 00:00:21.807 With me, I have the other co-host of the fiscal firehouse, Louis Barella, executive 00:00:21.807 --> 00:00:25.917 Board member of Local 1309 ambulance driver, and want to be financial expert. 00:00:26.517 --> 00:00:29.577 Together, John and I hope to bring clarity to the world of personal finance, 00:00:29.637 --> 00:00:31.377 specifically relating to firefighters. 00:00:31.887 --> 00:00:34.347 Firefighting is a difficult job making sound. 00:00:34.347 --> 00:00:35.752 Financial decisions shouldn't be. 00:00:36.267 --> 00:00:39.777 Opening: In today's episode of the fiscal firehouse, John and Louie will discuss the 00:00:39.777 --> 00:00:41.427 current volatility in the stock market. 00:00:41.847 --> 00:00:45.537 They'll give insight into how people behave and often make investing mistakes. 00:00:45.657 --> 00:00:49.317 At the most un opportune times, John and Louis will answer the question, 00:00:49.317 --> 00:00:50.877 is this time really different? 00:00:51.357 --> 00:00:54.087 Lastly, they will offer five strategies to help investors remain 00:00:54.087 --> 00:00:56.427 resilient in tough economic times. 00:00:56.907 --> 00:01:00.237 Without further ado, let's kick it over to local 1309 studios. 00:01:00.552 --> 00:01:02.562 And the recording of the fiscal firehouse. 00:01:04.956 --> 00:01:08.346 Jon: Welcome back to another episode of the Fiscal Firehouse. 00:01:08.646 --> 00:01:10.476 I'm your co-host John Beatty. 00:01:10.566 --> 00:01:15.156 With me as always, I've got my partner in Crime lb, Louis Barilla. 00:01:15.156 --> 00:01:15.696 What's up, E lb. 00:01:16.266 --> 00:01:16.476 Louie: lb? 00:01:16.476 --> 00:01:17.196 Hey, how you doing, John? 00:01:17.361 --> 00:01:17.931 Jon: Oh man. 00:01:17.931 --> 00:01:20.811 It's, uh, man, we are, we are fielding a lot of questions. 00:01:20.811 --> 00:01:25.131 So we'll preface this with, uh, what is it, April 17th? 00:01:25.416 --> 00:01:25.536 Louie: Yep. 00:01:25.626 --> 00:01:26.166 April 17th. 00:01:26.166 --> 00:01:26.286 Today, 00:01:26.331 --> 00:01:26.662 Jon: April 17th. 00:01:26.662 --> 00:01:26.663 Yep. 00:01:26.663 --> 00:01:29.991 April 17th is a recording of this episode of the fiscal firehouse. 00:01:29.991 --> 00:01:33.711 And man, we have got a lot of stuff coming down the pike from the stock 00:01:33.711 --> 00:01:37.971 market, from the economy, and man, Louie and I are just getting berated right now 00:01:37.971 --> 00:01:40.761 with questions, concerns, a lot of fear. 00:01:40.821 --> 00:01:44.516 I am, I never like to see the stock market do this or the economy do 00:01:44.516 --> 00:01:48.626 this, but I am, I'm really excited because this is a lot of the dialogue. 00:01:48.626 --> 00:01:51.026 When Louie and I were talking about spooling up the podcast, 00:01:51.416 --> 00:01:53.006 this was a lot of what we wanted. 00:01:53.006 --> 00:01:56.366 Something that we could talk to people, um, talk to the audience and 00:01:56.366 --> 00:01:58.376 give them some real time feedback. 00:01:58.426 --> 00:02:01.096 because there's just a lot of people that are anxious and nervous about 00:02:01.096 --> 00:02:02.266 a lot of different things right now. 00:02:02.266 --> 00:02:05.836 And we thought this would be the perfect opportunity to be timely in 00:02:05.836 --> 00:02:09.236 some of these conversations and set the record straight and hopefully, 00:02:09.236 --> 00:02:11.006 just leave people a little bit more at. 00:02:11.011 --> 00:02:13.891 At ease about where we are and where we're headed. 00:02:13.951 --> 00:02:16.891 and we just really wanted to provide some commentary for one, 00:02:16.891 --> 00:02:18.181 obviously these are opinions. 00:02:18.361 --> 00:02:18.421 Yeah. 00:02:18.511 --> 00:02:21.341 But we just wanted to reset the compass, so to speak. 00:02:21.391 --> 00:02:23.941 And take some of that fear and anxiety that a lot of people are 00:02:23.941 --> 00:02:27.491 feeling and hopefully, be able to give you some context for what we're 00:02:27.516 --> 00:02:28.236 Louie: experiencing. 00:02:28.506 --> 00:02:28.656 Yeah. 00:02:28.656 --> 00:02:30.306 I don't know if you felt this, John, but I think there's a lot of 00:02:30.306 --> 00:02:34.276 misconception about what, different things mean when it comes to an economic 00:02:34.276 --> 00:02:37.016 slowdown or, tough economic times. 00:02:37.016 --> 00:02:39.116 And I think that I've heard people use the wrong terms to 00:02:39.116 --> 00:02:40.676 describe what might be happening. 00:02:41.016 --> 00:02:44.256 and I, we get it like there, the market's been really volatile lately, 00:02:44.256 --> 00:02:48.556 and if you, get onto any news service, you'll see tons of articles, headline 00:02:48.556 --> 00:02:50.836 articles, attention grabbing articles. 00:02:51.046 --> 00:02:53.816 And so, you know, we, we just wanna address that. 00:02:53.866 --> 00:02:56.896 what does it mean if there's an economic slowdown or a recession 00:02:56.896 --> 00:02:58.486 or a stock market crash? 00:02:58.486 --> 00:03:00.826 Or I've even heard the word depression thrown around a lot, 00:03:00.826 --> 00:03:02.446 which is a serious word, John. 00:03:02.496 --> 00:03:03.051 let's, a serious 00:03:03.186 --> 00:03:05.406 Jon: word, who is benefiting from all these, it's all 00:03:05.406 --> 00:03:07.026 the market prognosticators. 00:03:07.026 --> 00:03:11.766 And people that sell media, they love this because people are literally 00:03:11.766 --> 00:03:14.796 glued to the television or their phone or their social media account. 00:03:15.046 --> 00:03:16.306 X is blowing up. 00:03:16.306 --> 00:03:18.976 Like people feel like the world will never be the same. 00:03:18.976 --> 00:03:23.176 And it's just like all the fear mongering that we have seen with previous cycles. 00:03:23.206 --> 00:03:24.706 And it's just like they love it. 00:03:24.771 --> 00:03:28.391 and it's one of those things that sells a lot and advertisers like it. 00:03:28.391 --> 00:03:32.021 There's a lot of people that benefit from hysteria and from fear, quite frankly. 00:03:32.291 --> 00:03:35.111 So we just wanted to reset the barometer on some of these things. 00:03:35.111 --> 00:03:36.851 Give you guys some context talk. 00:03:36.911 --> 00:03:38.831 Louie: We were, we were talking about what to name this episode and I think 00:03:38.836 --> 00:03:40.271 we need to get clicks and listen. 00:03:40.271 --> 00:03:45.411 So we should name it like the impending economic, D-Day or we should name it. 00:03:45.411 --> 00:03:47.721 Something like very attention grabbing so that people are 00:03:47.721 --> 00:03:48.831 more likely to listen to it. 00:03:48.901 --> 00:03:49.741 let's capitalize. 00:03:49.786 --> 00:03:50.656 Jon: Let's capitalize. 00:03:50.656 --> 00:03:50.866 Yeah. 00:03:50.866 --> 00:03:53.746 We're at the fiscal firehouse, we're definitely for profit. 00:03:53.756 --> 00:03:54.266 we're getting up. 00:03:54.266 --> 00:03:55.586 Wait, wait a minute. 00:03:55.631 --> 00:03:57.026 Louie: Haven't made profit, but that's okay. 00:03:57.176 --> 00:03:58.256 Jon: made any profit yet. 00:03:58.256 --> 00:04:02.246 But, you want to give us a little bit more, I mean, we try to be as accurate 00:04:02.246 --> 00:04:05.736 as we can on the podcast, but maybe just a little bit of history lesson, 00:04:05.736 --> 00:04:07.656 Louie, on just some of these terms. 00:04:07.656 --> 00:04:07.716 Yeah. 00:04:07.746 --> 00:04:08.586 We already talked about it. 00:04:08.586 --> 00:04:09.246 Recessions, 00:04:09.296 --> 00:04:09.616 Louie: Depressions. 00:04:09.726 --> 00:04:10.206 Jon: crashes. 00:04:10.296 --> 00:04:10.386 Sure. 00:04:10.866 --> 00:04:11.646 All those things. 00:04:11.646 --> 00:04:15.606 Just give the listeners a little bit more context of what do those things really 00:04:15.846 --> 00:04:16.056 Louie: yeah. 00:04:16.056 --> 00:04:19.386 So we'll start with talking about some of the common terms that you see in headlines 00:04:19.686 --> 00:04:22.806 and what they mean so that we can all be sure that we're talking about the same 00:04:22.806 --> 00:04:26.256 stuff around the firehouse table or when you're talking to your family about it. 00:04:26.596 --> 00:04:29.566 so one of the first ones that you hear that comes up a lot because 00:04:29.566 --> 00:04:32.206 this has happened and it has happened a lot over like the last. 00:04:32.386 --> 00:04:35.216 50 years or, as long as there's been a stock market and that 00:04:35.216 --> 00:04:36.836 is a stock market crash. 00:04:36.896 --> 00:04:40.586 And a stock market crash is simply a sharp decline in stocks 00:04:40.586 --> 00:04:42.026 over a short period of time. 00:04:42.026 --> 00:04:48.146 So most economists consider that to be a 10% more drop within a week or so. 00:04:48.206 --> 00:04:49.976 If that happens, that's called a crash. 00:04:50.216 --> 00:04:54.266 So over the past couple weeks we experienced the stock market crash. 00:04:54.566 --> 00:04:56.456 I don't know the last time you looked, John, but when I looked at 00:04:56.456 --> 00:04:59.456 the s and p 500, I think a couple days ago, it was down, I wanna say 00:04:59.506 --> 00:05:01.696 11 point a half, 12% year to date. 00:05:02.056 --> 00:05:02.116 Yeah. 00:05:02.196 --> 00:05:04.656 which is a big drop over a relatively short period of time. 00:05:04.656 --> 00:05:07.896 A lot of that drop happened over a three, four week period. 00:05:08.006 --> 00:05:09.116 Jon: post liberation day. 00:05:09.246 --> 00:05:10.326 Louie: Post liberation 00:05:10.361 --> 00:05:10.851 Jon: Exactly. 00:05:10.951 --> 00:05:11.171 Yep. 00:05:11.491 --> 00:05:14.281 Louie: Yeah, so that would be considered a stock market crash. 00:05:14.341 --> 00:05:17.701 So it's important to know that if there is a stock market crash, 00:05:17.881 --> 00:05:21.901 it does not necessarily mean that there is an economic downturn. 00:05:22.251 --> 00:05:24.171 it can signal that something else is going on. 00:05:24.201 --> 00:05:28.101 It signals a lot of uncertainty in the market or a lot of fear in the market. 00:05:28.311 --> 00:05:29.631 Sometimes that's short-lived. 00:05:29.661 --> 00:05:32.181 Sometimes it's, longer term concerns. 00:05:32.331 --> 00:05:33.021 We don't know. 00:05:33.021 --> 00:05:33.921 it's too early to say. 00:05:33.921 --> 00:05:34.371 We don't know. 00:05:34.371 --> 00:05:37.541 And I guess before we go any further, just to reiterate, we need to say that 00:05:37.541 --> 00:05:39.251 John and I don't know what's gonna happen. 00:05:39.491 --> 00:05:40.961 It market could go back up. 00:05:40.961 --> 00:05:43.181 We could gain everything lost in a short amount of time. 00:05:43.481 --> 00:05:46.121 We could be entering into really tough economic times. 00:05:46.121 --> 00:05:46.781 We don't know. 00:05:46.931 --> 00:05:49.181 And that's why we wanted to do this podcast, but that's 00:05:49.181 --> 00:05:50.201 what a stock market crash is. 00:05:50.201 --> 00:05:54.731 So we're delivering to you this podcast, during, a stock market crash. 00:05:55.446 --> 00:05:55.716 Jon: Yep. 00:05:55.716 --> 00:05:57.656 No, I think that's totally fair to say. 00:05:57.706 --> 00:06:02.596 as far as what an actual, the values associated with a crash are, and I think 00:06:02.596 --> 00:06:06.646 the thing that has people, especially newer investors, even more importantly 00:06:06.646 --> 00:06:10.486 probably old investors, right at they're closer to retirement, is just the speed 00:06:10.486 --> 00:06:12.106 and velocity that this has happened. 00:06:12.106 --> 00:06:12.166 Yeah. 00:06:12.416 --> 00:06:18.096 we're seeing we're, we are seeing swings of the market intraday that, that are. 00:06:18.591 --> 00:06:22.341 Are historical, they have never moved this much in such a short amount of time. 00:06:22.521 --> 00:06:26.561 Just because there is, and that you really clued into the word that the theme 00:06:26.561 --> 00:06:30.641 of this and really why the market is behaving the way it is uncertainty, right? 00:06:30.641 --> 00:06:32.291 On either direction, good and bad. 00:06:32.291 --> 00:06:35.411 that is just a one thing that the market is trying to figure out. 00:06:35.411 --> 00:06:38.791 And I think this is a good opportunity for people to just know 00:06:38.791 --> 00:06:40.591 like how the stock market works. 00:06:40.801 --> 00:06:44.371 So a lot of people think stocks are reflective of what is going on with 00:06:44.371 --> 00:06:46.291 the corporation or the company today. 00:06:46.906 --> 00:06:48.046 That is not the case. 00:06:48.226 --> 00:06:50.596 Stock market is always future looking, right? 00:06:50.596 --> 00:06:53.746 So they're trying to figure out where the company is gonna be from like 00:06:53.746 --> 00:06:57.886 a profitability standpoint, three, six months, a year into the future. 00:06:58.156 --> 00:07:00.226 They are not counting for what happened today. 00:07:00.256 --> 00:07:03.086 They are looking forward, six months to a year in the future. 00:07:03.086 --> 00:07:06.446 And that's why you're seeing so much volatility specifically going down 00:07:06.746 --> 00:07:10.076 because with announcements of tariffs and stuff like that, all of a sudden the 00:07:10.076 --> 00:07:13.526 stock market has to reprice potentially what earnings are gonna look like and 00:07:13.526 --> 00:07:15.446 how that's gonna affect the bottom line. 00:07:15.446 --> 00:07:19.526 So I think that's a really important point, is that the stock market, the 00:07:19.526 --> 00:07:22.916 current price today is not reflective of what the company is doing today. 00:07:23.216 --> 00:07:23.276 Yeah. 00:07:23.316 --> 00:07:27.066 it's looking into the future and what that's gonna mean for earnings in the 00:07:27.066 --> 00:07:28.386 future and how the company's gonna do. 00:07:28.386 --> 00:07:30.276 So really important point of clarification 00:07:30.471 --> 00:07:34.341 Louie: and John, I didn't put this in the notes, I just realized now, but so 00:07:34.341 --> 00:07:35.781 there's, that's a stock market crash. 00:07:35.781 --> 00:07:39.086 And then there's a level after that a lot of people like to call a bear market. 00:07:39.326 --> 00:07:42.766 So a lot of people you hear, people are bearish on stocks or there's a bear 00:07:42.766 --> 00:07:45.076 market going on, and all a bear market is. 00:07:45.221 --> 00:07:48.431 It's basically a little bit bigger and more sustained crash. 00:07:48.431 --> 00:07:53.171 So I think most economists consider a bear market to be, like a 20% 00:07:53.171 --> 00:07:55.451 decline over weeks or months. 00:07:55.631 --> 00:08:00.581 So more than a crash, not necessarily a recession, although it's a strong 00:08:00.581 --> 00:08:02.591 indicator of recession, which we'll talk about in just a moment. 00:08:02.801 --> 00:08:05.436 But it's basically a sign that something serious is going on. 00:08:05.706 --> 00:08:09.166 This is not a bear market yet, but if things keep going the 00:08:09.166 --> 00:08:12.076 way they are, it's very possible that we'll enter a bear market. 00:08:12.076 --> 00:08:16.966 So that's a pullback in securities 20% or more over weeks or months. 00:08:17.116 --> 00:08:19.156 And sometimes a bear market can last years. 00:08:19.216 --> 00:08:22.976 So that's basically where prices stay depressed, around that 20% decline 00:08:22.976 --> 00:08:25.076 or more over a long period of time. 00:08:25.126 --> 00:08:26.656 Jon: Yeah, and we'll talk about that too. 00:08:26.656 --> 00:08:28.786 and we'll highlight, it's very important because. 00:08:29.396 --> 00:08:33.246 a lot of this comes down to terminology, but when you talk about the stock market, 00:08:33.246 --> 00:08:35.976 and when Louie and I talk about the stock market, we gotta make sure that 00:08:35.976 --> 00:08:37.206 we're talking about the same thing. 00:08:37.206 --> 00:08:40.686 'cause within the overall market there's a lot of different indexes and indices. 00:08:40.746 --> 00:08:45.426 And there are some indices specifically like the Nasdaq, which tr which 00:08:45.426 --> 00:08:47.316 tracks a lot of, technology stocks. 00:08:47.316 --> 00:08:49.416 They are in a full on bear market right now. 00:08:49.466 --> 00:08:49.468 Louie: that's true. 00:08:49.473 --> 00:08:50.311 Some sectors are in 00:08:50.336 --> 00:08:54.026 Jon: Some sectors are definitely down more than 20% from their peak. 00:08:54.026 --> 00:08:57.116 it really depends on what market or indices you're talking about. 00:08:57.116 --> 00:09:00.266 And Lou and I will chat on that here or riff on that here a little 00:09:00.266 --> 00:09:01.856 bit more, later on in the podcast. 00:09:01.856 --> 00:09:02.246 But yep. 00:09:02.246 --> 00:09:03.806 So that is just stock market crash. 00:09:03.806 --> 00:09:03.896 Yep. 00:09:04.136 --> 00:09:05.606 Versus what is a bear market. 00:09:05.846 --> 00:09:09.746 And obviously the opposite of a bear market is what a bull market. 00:09:09.746 --> 00:09:09.956 A bull market man. 00:09:09.956 --> 00:09:10.826 And we've been ripping. 00:09:10.826 --> 00:09:10.886 Yeah. 00:09:10.986 --> 00:09:13.446 That's the other part is we have been in a bull market 00:09:13.446 --> 00:09:16.566 since the end of 2022 into 2023. 00:09:16.566 --> 00:09:17.136 And for the last. 00:09:17.151 --> 00:09:19.251 Two years, like stocks have gone up. 00:09:19.281 --> 00:09:22.521 Every industry, every stock market, every basic, more or 00:09:22.521 --> 00:09:24.381 less, all the stocks have gone up. 00:09:24.381 --> 00:09:25.431 They've gone up into the right. 00:09:25.431 --> 00:09:28.971 So this is something that just to reset some of our expectations is like the 00:09:28.971 --> 00:09:33.021 stock market has enjoyed some significant gains over the last couple years. 00:09:33.126 --> 00:09:34.296 Louie: Yeah, absolutely. 00:09:34.626 --> 00:09:35.106 Absolutely. 00:09:35.211 --> 00:09:36.591 Jon: right, so what's a recession then? 00:09:36.591 --> 00:09:39.261 So if we talked about the stock market crash or what that is, 00:09:39.261 --> 00:09:41.571 and then we've talked about bear markets and bull markets. 00:09:41.941 --> 00:09:42.841 what's a recession? 00:09:43.066 --> 00:09:43.336 Louie: Yep. 00:09:43.336 --> 00:09:43.846 A recession. 00:09:43.846 --> 00:09:47.656 Actually, it doesn't have anything directly to do with the stock market, 00:09:47.746 --> 00:09:51.496 so the crashes and the bear market, that has to do with the stock market. 00:09:51.836 --> 00:09:55.166 but a recession has to do with just economic activity in general. 00:09:55.196 --> 00:09:59.516 Now it is related to, a stock market decline generally because a recession is a 00:09:59.516 --> 00:10:01.856 significant decline in economic activity. 00:10:01.916 --> 00:10:05.636 And when there's an economic activity decline, there's generally 00:10:05.666 --> 00:10:06.986 a pullback in stock prices. 00:10:06.986 --> 00:10:10.396 So you'll see a, either a crash or even just a reduction in 00:10:10.396 --> 00:10:12.226 prices across all equities. 00:10:12.466 --> 00:10:16.126 So generally a recession, most economists would say that a recession 00:10:16.126 --> 00:10:20.906 lasts, more than two months, and it includes falling gross domestic product. 00:10:21.326 --> 00:10:25.906 It in, it includes an increase in unemployment and a slow down in business. 00:10:26.206 --> 00:10:26.866 Investment. 00:10:26.926 --> 00:10:31.536 So some economists disagree or have differing terms for what they consider 00:10:31.536 --> 00:10:36.256 to be, a recession, but most economists say that a recession is two consecutive 00:10:36.256 --> 00:10:39.046 quarters of negative GDP growth. 00:10:39.406 --> 00:10:39.911 So that sounds 00:10:39.916 --> 00:10:40.546 Jon: real nerdy. 00:10:40.756 --> 00:10:41.656 Real nerdy. 00:10:41.656 --> 00:10:44.266 You got GDP growth, you got negative quarters, all 00:10:44.326 --> 00:10:45.016 Louie: I know. 00:10:45.346 --> 00:10:46.066 I know. 00:10:46.096 --> 00:10:49.306 And that's, and it's basically, it's backward looking. 00:10:49.306 --> 00:10:52.246 So some, we might be in a recession right now and not know it 'cause 00:10:52.246 --> 00:10:54.886 we don't know what the current GDP numbers are and how it compares. 00:10:55.246 --> 00:10:58.196 But, they'll let you know, like the headlines love to talk about that. 00:10:58.196 --> 00:11:00.116 'cause it gets views, it gets clicks. 00:11:00.166 --> 00:11:02.986 it's possible that we're in a recession right now, we won't know. 00:11:03.076 --> 00:11:06.886 But in general, two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, 00:11:07.226 --> 00:11:08.966 would be considered a recession. 00:11:09.086 --> 00:11:09.146 Yeah. 00:11:09.206 --> 00:11:10.556 So are we in when John? 00:11:10.796 --> 00:11:11.186 I don't know. 00:11:11.696 --> 00:11:14.606 Jon: Yeah, and like you said, it is backward looking, so we 00:11:14.606 --> 00:11:16.856 won't know until after the fact. 00:11:16.856 --> 00:11:19.856 Honestly, when we're already in the recession or a lot of times when we've 00:11:19.856 --> 00:11:23.606 already recovered, a lot of this is just the academics and the data is 00:11:23.606 --> 00:11:27.506 lagging, so it just takes up a little bit of time to, to compile all that 00:11:27.506 --> 00:11:30.356 information before they can do their forecast, and then they always do 00:11:30.356 --> 00:11:31.886 revisions and everything else like that. 00:11:31.916 --> 00:11:35.906 So, you know, this is something they talk a lot about on the news and in the media. 00:11:36.136 --> 00:11:39.166 The difference between Wall Street and Main Street and how some of 00:11:39.166 --> 00:11:40.816 those things interplay on each other. 00:11:41.096 --> 00:11:44.426 and that's one of the things that can be really difficult is you can have, 00:11:44.516 --> 00:11:48.116 it is a potential where you could have a decline in the stock market. 00:11:48.116 --> 00:11:51.846 So actually, values are going down the stock market, but the overall economy 00:11:51.846 --> 00:11:56.346 is still okay, is, and people will still have jobs and there is still a certain 00:11:56.346 --> 00:11:57.696 amount of growth in certain sectors. 00:11:57.696 --> 00:12:00.606 So they're not mutually exclusive, I think is the end point. 00:12:00.606 --> 00:12:04.596 And I think a lot of times people convolute both of those terms and they 00:12:04.596 --> 00:12:08.496 use 'em interchangeably and they are, they can be very much dependent on each 00:12:08.496 --> 00:12:10.806 other, interrelated, but not all the time. 00:12:10.806 --> 00:12:13.726 And I think that's one of these things right now is we are in, 00:12:13.786 --> 00:12:15.346 a stock market decline, right? 00:12:15.346 --> 00:12:19.396 Values have dropped down, but the overall economy still looks okay. 00:12:19.456 --> 00:12:22.336 And that's what like the Federal Reserve has to look at when they're setting 00:12:22.336 --> 00:12:24.136 policy and all these other things. 00:12:24.136 --> 00:12:26.656 But it's just, what's really concerning is just. 00:12:26.656 --> 00:12:28.906 The speed and velocity of these things. 00:12:29.156 --> 00:12:34.046 but a lot of the data that moves either monetary or fiscal policy, it takes 00:12:34.046 --> 00:12:35.516 a while for that stuff to develop. 00:12:35.516 --> 00:12:39.956 So we're just in a lot of limbo and uncertainty right now, but it's good that 00:12:40.006 --> 00:12:44.326 we all speak the same terminology and, a lot of Louis and I's purpose on this 00:12:44.326 --> 00:12:48.826 podcast is to demystify a lot of the terms that are used and just make sure that 00:12:48.826 --> 00:12:50.436 we're all te we're all talking the same 00:12:50.581 --> 00:12:51.001 Louie: Yeah. 00:12:51.116 --> 00:12:54.441 And the, and just so you guys can get a flavor for what a recession is. 00:12:54.441 --> 00:12:57.291 I think one that a lot of us, a lot of our members can 00:12:57.291 --> 00:12:59.001 remember was the Great Recession. 00:12:59.301 --> 00:13:00.831 And that happened in 2007. 00:13:00.831 --> 00:13:02.631 It was like 2007 to 2009. 00:13:02.631 --> 00:13:07.071 And that was caused in part by the subprime mortgage crisis and the 00:13:07.191 --> 00:13:09.051 housing market bubble bursting. 00:13:09.501 --> 00:13:12.581 And, a lot of people could remember how tough it was to find a job. 00:13:12.901 --> 00:13:15.541 wages were just stagnant for years. 00:13:15.541 --> 00:13:17.071 Like some people were went without races. 00:13:17.071 --> 00:13:19.201 I think West Metro, I wasn't here at West Metro at the time, but I think 00:13:19.201 --> 00:13:21.001 West Metro went years without raises 00:13:21.091 --> 00:13:22.231 Jon: We had to actually Yeah. 00:13:22.231 --> 00:13:23.401 Forego some wages. 00:13:23.451 --> 00:13:27.041 we had to, actually do some demotion, so we felt that, yeah. 00:13:27.091 --> 00:13:28.171 across the district. 00:13:28.481 --> 00:13:31.841 and at the department specifically, it was a significant change for us. 00:13:31.841 --> 00:13:35.621 obviously being funded through property taxes and property values declining, 00:13:35.621 --> 00:13:39.201 not nearly as much to some degree as, some of the other places like 00:13:39.201 --> 00:13:43.461 the Midwest and even the Southwest, like Arizona, Phoenix and Las Vegas. 00:13:43.461 --> 00:13:45.531 some of their markets dropped 50%. 00:13:45.631 --> 00:13:48.571 we never reached that level of drop here. 00:13:48.571 --> 00:13:51.601 It was honestly pretty tame compared to a lot of the country. 00:13:51.601 --> 00:13:54.241 But nonetheless, we ultimately felt what that is. 00:13:54.291 --> 00:13:56.751 Louie: and that was about as bad as a recession gets, like there's been 00:13:56.751 --> 00:13:59.361 a lot of recession since then that a lot of people don't even remember. 00:13:59.361 --> 00:14:00.411 Or maybe they remember. 00:14:00.661 --> 00:14:01.531 but it just wasn't that 00:14:01.561 --> 00:14:02.641 Jon: It affected everyone. 00:14:02.641 --> 00:14:02.701 Yeah. 00:14:02.951 --> 00:14:05.531 some recessions affect certain industries, right? 00:14:05.531 --> 00:14:07.421 Specifically whether that's like the.com 00:14:07.421 --> 00:14:11.021 bubble and the tech industry, like that was one that was felt by a lot of people. 00:14:11.021 --> 00:14:15.761 But, the GFC, the great financial crisis was one of those that it, there was no 00:14:15.761 --> 00:14:19.391 one that it did not affect, it affected everyone in a pretty meaningful way. 00:14:19.541 --> 00:14:22.321 And part of that is, and Louie talked about this, is, there's 00:14:22.321 --> 00:14:25.231 really no predetermined amount of time that recessions can last. 00:14:25.261 --> 00:14:29.311 And that was one that was just really drawn out and prolonged for years 00:14:29.551 --> 00:14:33.721 versus because of new monetary policy and even fiscal policy to some degree. 00:14:33.971 --> 00:14:35.981 they're just not letting recessions last as long. 00:14:35.981 --> 00:14:39.941 They're, injecting a bunch of liquidity through, fiscal policy and 00:14:39.941 --> 00:14:43.081 some other things that, they just, there's no run of the mill recession. 00:14:43.081 --> 00:14:44.371 Everyone is a little bit 00:14:44.431 --> 00:14:44.791 Louie: Yeah. 00:14:45.151 --> 00:14:48.241 Little fun fact about that great recession is, so it started, most 00:14:48.241 --> 00:14:52.411 people say it started like around, I think November or December of 2007. 00:14:52.411 --> 00:14:53.581 Beginning of 2008. 00:14:53.641 --> 00:14:53.701 Yeah. 00:14:53.731 --> 00:14:54.721 January in 2008. 00:14:55.561 --> 00:15:00.781 I graduated from college in April or May of 2000 and. 00:15:01.066 --> 00:15:01.456 Jon: and eight. 00:15:01.606 --> 00:15:01.936 Ooh, 00:15:02.211 --> 00:15:04.191 Louie: that was a brutal time. 00:15:04.246 --> 00:15:06.221 I had a lot of people, I was in business school, had a lot of 00:15:06.221 --> 00:15:09.761 people who had job offers from big banks and accounting firms. 00:15:10.061 --> 00:15:12.551 And after they had been given their jobs, they were given letters 00:15:12.551 --> 00:15:14.741 right After saying, sorry, no jobs 00:15:14.826 --> 00:15:16.146 Jon: We're rescinding this offer. 00:15:16.236 --> 00:15:17.736 Sorry, we're actually consolidating. 00:15:17.736 --> 00:15:19.476 We're actually laying people off, so 00:15:19.481 --> 00:15:21.221 Louie: it took me a long time to find a job. 00:15:21.221 --> 00:15:24.551 I came back, came, moved back to Colorado after I graduated, and 00:15:24.551 --> 00:15:26.411 I think I looked for nine months. 00:15:26.416 --> 00:15:26.576 Oh man, 00:15:26.586 --> 00:15:27.216 Jon: I didn't know that. 00:15:27.216 --> 00:15:30.071 Louie: yeah, I had a hard time finding a job and fortunately I was 00:15:30.071 --> 00:15:32.321 able to find one with the state, and that's how I started my career with 00:15:32.321 --> 00:15:35.261 the state of Colorado because they were one of the few employers out 00:15:35.286 --> 00:15:36.006 Jon: that were still hiring. 00:15:36.006 --> 00:15:37.716 They still had funds from the government. 00:15:37.721 --> 00:15:38.141 Louie: Yeah. 00:15:38.291 --> 00:15:39.611 So that's how I got in. 00:15:39.611 --> 00:15:40.931 But yeah, it was a rough time. 00:15:40.991 --> 00:15:43.031 It's, it, that was a rough time for a lot of people. 00:15:43.381 --> 00:15:44.671 and not all recessions are like that. 00:15:44.701 --> 00:15:48.181 the most recent recession that we had was the COVID-19 recession, and that 00:15:48.181 --> 00:15:50.131 lasted, I think two or three months. 00:15:50.221 --> 00:15:50.281 Yeah. 00:15:50.381 --> 00:15:53.201 and that was a artificially caused recession. 00:15:53.511 --> 00:15:55.341 there was no reason to believe that would've happened had there 00:15:55.341 --> 00:15:58.476 not been a forced shut down of businesses, by the government. 00:15:58.476 --> 00:16:01.116 So anyway, that's just a little bit about recessions. 00:16:01.336 --> 00:16:04.066 good to know when people talk about recessions, what that is. 00:16:04.586 --> 00:16:06.776 and then John, I'll just move into the last one that we'll talk about 00:16:06.776 --> 00:16:08.426 our last term, and that's depression. 00:16:08.456 --> 00:16:12.056 I've actually seen some articles about that, some podcasts about it, where people 00:16:12.056 --> 00:16:15.926 are saying, Hey, because of these tariffs, this could lead us into a depression. 00:16:16.226 --> 00:16:17.786 And that is something that. 00:16:18.011 --> 00:16:21.461 Most people listening to this podcast have ne probably all people listening to this 00:16:21.461 --> 00:16:23.951 podcast have not experienced a depression 00:16:24.186 --> 00:16:25.146 Jon: for Ron's side bottom. 00:16:25.146 --> 00:16:28.476 Ronald, if you're listening to this brother, we know that you actually 00:16:28.476 --> 00:16:31.236 lived through the Dust Bowl and you were part of the Great Depression. 00:16:31.326 --> 00:16:32.076 It's all good, bro. 00:16:32.111 --> 00:16:34.871 Louie: That's why he was always taking like leftover food home from us and he 00:16:34.871 --> 00:16:36.881 was making his eat two week old food. 00:16:36.911 --> 00:16:38.951 'cause he remembers the great depression times. 00:16:38.981 --> 00:16:39.491 Jon: That's right. 00:16:39.491 --> 00:16:39.493 That's right. 00:16:39.501 --> 00:16:42.921 Louie: But a depression is basically a recession on steroids, so 00:16:42.921 --> 00:16:45.021 it's a severe economic downturn. 00:16:45.171 --> 00:16:49.251 We're talking about massive declines in GDP, super high unemployment, 00:16:49.561 --> 00:16:53.521 collapsing businesses, massive reduction in consumer spending and business 00:16:53.521 --> 00:16:57.891 investments, depressions last years, and there is usually, some amount 00:16:57.891 --> 00:17:00.141 of systemic failure related to it. 00:17:00.461 --> 00:17:03.671 they often result in bank collapses in the deflation of currency. 00:17:03.941 --> 00:17:07.361 We don't have a lot of time to talk about what that means or any time to 00:17:07.361 --> 00:17:10.541 talk about deflation and currency, but it's worse than inflation. 00:17:10.571 --> 00:17:13.001 And everyone knows inflation is not good, and we need to keep that under control. 00:17:13.181 --> 00:17:14.381 Deflation is even worse. 00:17:14.741 --> 00:17:19.101 So in the Great Depression, which happened in the 1930s, GDP dropped 00:17:19.101 --> 00:17:22.431 by 30% and unemployment was 25%. 00:17:22.431 --> 00:17:23.301 Can you imagine? 00:17:23.601 --> 00:17:24.441 Oh my gosh. 00:17:24.596 --> 00:17:28.816 Jon: and I'm thinking back to, our most recent, big crisis was COVID-19. 00:17:28.816 --> 00:17:33.606 And I feel like there was a portion in March when kind of the rollout 00:17:33.606 --> 00:17:37.236 just happened where we reached some unemployment of about 20% just 00:17:37.236 --> 00:17:40.116 because of all the unemployment claims that were being filed. 00:17:40.386 --> 00:17:44.286 And obviously that was very short-lived and temporary because of all of the fiscal 00:17:44.286 --> 00:17:46.786 policy, that the government instituted. 00:17:46.786 --> 00:17:49.566 as far as, giving people stimulus checks or having the. 00:17:49.581 --> 00:17:51.621 The PPP loans and all those other things. 00:17:51.621 --> 00:17:54.631 Like they really, they wanted to learn from the great financial 00:17:54.631 --> 00:17:55.831 crisis and some other things. 00:17:55.831 --> 00:17:58.891 So they really got ahead of the curve on a lot of these things. 00:17:58.891 --> 00:18:02.281 without some of that intervention there, there was definitely a lot of academic 00:18:02.281 --> 00:18:06.511 dialogue about potentially we could have involved in other depression by basically 00:18:06.691 --> 00:18:08.341 completely shutting down the economy. 00:18:08.741 --> 00:18:12.351 but I'm happy we're not discussing that now, but it's just one of those 00:18:12.351 --> 00:18:15.081 things like the depression is not a term that should be used lightly. 00:18:15.251 --> 00:18:18.311 And I'm just really happy for most of our economic policy. 00:18:18.311 --> 00:18:19.781 We don't have to talk about that. 00:18:19.781 --> 00:18:22.391 'cause we do have forward thinkers that are trying to prevent that. 00:18:22.391 --> 00:18:24.071 'cause I wouldn't wish that on anyone. 00:18:24.191 --> 00:18:24.461 Louie: Yeah. 00:18:24.551 --> 00:18:24.971 And we're not. 00:18:25.271 --> 00:18:27.191 And we're not saying that we won't enter a depression. 00:18:27.191 --> 00:18:27.881 We don't know John. 00:18:27.881 --> 00:18:28.511 John and I don't know. 00:18:28.511 --> 00:18:30.491 We're just letting you guys know what these terms mean. 00:18:30.491 --> 00:18:33.341 So if someone tells you that we are in a depression or that a depression is 00:18:33.341 --> 00:18:37.311 right here, I would first of all probably not believe him because that's severe. 00:18:37.311 --> 00:18:39.591 And you'll know and everyone will know when we're in depression, the 00:18:39.591 --> 00:18:43.731 whole country will be filling it even more so than the great recession 00:18:43.731 --> 00:18:45.171 in 2008 that we talked about. 00:18:45.171 --> 00:18:49.971 So with that being said, John, my first question to you is this time different? 00:18:49.971 --> 00:18:51.081 We have tariffs now. 00:18:51.321 --> 00:18:53.601 We got some crazy stuff going on in Washington. 00:18:53.931 --> 00:18:56.631 We got people freaking out, trading partners, art. 00:18:56.641 --> 00:18:57.841 Is this time different? 00:18:57.936 --> 00:18:58.296 Jon: Yeah. 00:18:58.296 --> 00:19:01.166 Everyone, that's everyone's favorite saying and there's always 00:19:01.166 --> 00:19:04.226 gonna be some type of exogenous shock that creates something. 00:19:04.226 --> 00:19:08.456 So in essence, everything is a little bit unique and is different, but, 00:19:08.766 --> 00:19:12.906 there's actually a famous investor, old Sir John Templeton, and he is 00:19:12.906 --> 00:19:15.516 quoted with this time is different. 00:19:15.516 --> 00:19:19.626 Is the basically one of the most dangerous words in investing, right? 00:19:19.806 --> 00:19:24.106 Because it is this concept of, it is important as investors to look 00:19:24.106 --> 00:19:28.186 at historical trends and tendencies and to just understand long 00:19:28.186 --> 00:19:29.716 term how things generally reset. 00:19:29.746 --> 00:19:32.866 'cause there's always gonna be something different, whether there, whether it's 00:19:32.866 --> 00:19:36.766 geopolitical, whether it's something from the government that they're instituting 00:19:36.766 --> 00:19:40.576 different things, whether it's a pandemic, whether it's a, natural disaster. 00:19:40.576 --> 00:19:43.696 There's always going to be something that we just didn't account for. 00:19:44.026 --> 00:19:46.666 But ultimately, at the end of the day, these things all 00:19:46.666 --> 00:19:48.496 follow some type of cyclicality. 00:19:48.556 --> 00:19:52.006 And there are some patterns that we can recognize, oh, this is a 00:19:52.006 --> 00:19:53.536 different mechanism for how we got. 00:19:53.766 --> 00:19:57.216 Here, but we also know how the story ends, so to speak. 00:19:57.216 --> 00:20:01.936 So it really is taking that, that breadth and then taking the long-term 00:20:01.936 --> 00:20:05.886 view on that and just recognizing that, although, things are different, 00:20:05.886 --> 00:20:09.126 we had tariffs back in the 18 hundreds and into the early 19 hundreds. 00:20:09.456 --> 00:20:13.496 But, our economy is so much different from 1800, 1900. 00:20:13.736 --> 00:20:16.406 So I have seen a lot of, and that's where a lot of the economists 00:20:16.406 --> 00:20:19.596 are trying to forecast what, why this would change things. 00:20:19.596 --> 00:20:22.796 And it's just like we don't have really good data because our technology and 00:20:22.796 --> 00:20:26.271 our economy is so much more modernized than it was in the 19 hundreds. 00:20:26.456 --> 00:20:30.686 So they don't know all the, all they can do is just plug in some variables, do 00:20:30.686 --> 00:20:32.996 some data, and then do some projecting. 00:20:32.996 --> 00:20:34.946 And this is how we get to where we do. 00:20:35.246 --> 00:20:39.016 But, it really is, this time is different and some of the examples are, 00:20:39.196 --> 00:20:40.966 we talked about a little bit like the. 00:20:41.016 --> 00:20:41.706 the.com 00:20:41.706 --> 00:20:42.996 bubble, right? 00:20:43.001 --> 00:20:44.711 the great financial crisis. 00:20:44.771 --> 00:20:47.771 We talked about meme stocks, cryptocurrencies, we've 00:20:47.771 --> 00:20:49.391 talked about the pandemic. 00:20:49.571 --> 00:20:50.981 We've talked about all these things. 00:20:50.981 --> 00:20:54.641 But at the end of the day, what ended up happening after all that stuff? 00:20:54.941 --> 00:20:57.161 Did the stock market go up several years down the road? 00:20:57.191 --> 00:21:00.671 Or is, are we still have not recovered from some of these things, right? 00:21:00.721 --> 00:21:01.681 Louie: It still went up, right? 00:21:01.681 --> 00:21:02.401 It still went up. 00:21:02.431 --> 00:21:04.741 And I think that's the, that's, so that's the key to answer that 00:21:04.741 --> 00:21:06.171 question is this time different? 00:21:06.171 --> 00:21:07.071 Yes, sure. 00:21:07.101 --> 00:21:07.821 They're all different. 00:21:07.821 --> 00:21:08.691 They're all a little different. 00:21:08.896 --> 00:21:09.756 but I. 00:21:09.891 --> 00:21:13.011 Should it, your next question should be, should that change what I do? 00:21:13.011 --> 00:21:14.241 Should that change how I invest? 00:21:14.251 --> 00:21:16.111 should that make me not an investor? 00:21:16.391 --> 00:21:19.761 before we really talk about that, John, I want to ask you another question. 00:21:19.761 --> 00:21:21.531 I have an investment opportunity for you, John. 00:21:21.831 --> 00:21:23.001 You didn't know I was gonna do this. 00:21:23.031 --> 00:21:26.961 So it's an investment opportunity in a country and I want to know 00:21:26.961 --> 00:21:29.121 if you're interested in buying this investment opportunity. 00:21:29.211 --> 00:21:31.751 So here's the thing, and this is good for you. 00:21:31.811 --> 00:21:36.221 I am gonna tell you what happens to this investment over the next 50 or so years. 00:21:36.221 --> 00:21:38.171 So you can tell me if you're interested in it. 00:21:38.231 --> 00:21:38.411 Okay? 00:21:38.411 --> 00:21:38.721 This is just 00:21:38.791 --> 00:21:40.081 Jon: Oh, hypothetically speaking. 00:21:40.081 --> 00:21:40.561 Okay. 00:21:40.686 --> 00:21:43.656 Louie: there are going to be some very expensive wars 00:21:43.746 --> 00:21:44.916 that this country gets into. 00:21:45.136 --> 00:21:47.296 there's gonna be, this is over a 50 year period, okay? 00:21:47.296 --> 00:21:47.297 Okay. 00:21:47.326 --> 00:21:48.196 50, 60 years. 00:21:48.496 --> 00:21:51.166 So there's gonna be some, a war like in Korea. 00:21:51.391 --> 00:21:53.161 Afghanistan, Iraq. 00:21:53.461 --> 00:21:54.391 Very expensive. 00:21:54.441 --> 00:21:55.431 very expensive, 00:21:55.501 --> 00:21:55.891 Jon: Billions. 00:21:55.891 --> 00:21:56.791 I'm di I'm guessing. 00:21:56.791 --> 00:21:56.941 Yeah. 00:21:56.971 --> 00:21:57.331 Okay. 00:21:57.391 --> 00:21:57.691 Yeah. 00:21:58.191 --> 00:22:01.761 Louie: this country's going to experience some pretty de decent stagflation 00:22:01.761 --> 00:22:03.021 for a period of time early on. 00:22:03.561 --> 00:22:06.801 And following this, it's going to have 18% mortgage rates. 00:22:06.861 --> 00:22:07.311 Brutal. 00:22:07.371 --> 00:22:08.781 It's gonna be really expensive for people. 00:22:09.111 --> 00:22:11.631 And John, sometime after that, this country's going to experience the 00:22:11.631 --> 00:22:17.481 largest single day stock market crash in history, 25% in a single day. 00:22:17.601 --> 00:22:18.981 So this is what you're buying into John. 00:22:19.431 --> 00:22:21.291 A little time after that, the country's gonna experience, 00:22:21.321 --> 00:22:22.581 a technology bubble burst. 00:22:22.641 --> 00:22:25.921 And tons of companies are gonna go under, hundreds or thousands of country. 00:22:26.431 --> 00:22:29.221 Oh, and then the country will experience the most devastating 00:22:29.221 --> 00:22:33.121 terrorist attack in its history, and that will change the country forever. 00:22:33.421 --> 00:22:36.411 And unfortunately John, that is going be followed, by a housing 00:22:36.411 --> 00:22:39.051 crisis and a really bad depression. 00:22:39.081 --> 00:22:40.821 Someone even call it a great recession. 00:22:40.821 --> 00:22:41.421 not a depression 00:22:41.821 --> 00:22:41.851 Jon: Okay. 00:22:41.851 --> 00:22:42.061 Recession. 00:22:42.091 --> 00:22:42.271 Yep. 00:22:42.511 --> 00:22:42.721 Louie: oh. 00:22:42.721 --> 00:22:46.531 And then the country's going to experience a pandemic that closes down businesses and 00:22:46.531 --> 00:22:48.421 slows the wheels of economic productivity. 00:22:48.991 --> 00:22:51.991 I, sorry John, I know this sounds like a shitty investment, but, 00:22:52.271 --> 00:22:53.531 Jon: Where's the upside on this? 00:22:53.601 --> 00:22:54.591 Louie: do you wanna buy that? 00:22:54.591 --> 00:22:56.181 Can I get your money for this investment? 00:22:56.181 --> 00:22:56.421 Now? 00:22:56.481 --> 00:22:59.511 if you invested in that, what do you think that investment would 00:22:59.511 --> 00:23:03.951 return every year on average over that time with all those things? 00:23:04.196 --> 00:23:08.216 Jon: based on my lack of financial acumen, I would say that's probably not 00:23:08.216 --> 00:23:11.786 a good investment in that I probably would expect a negative return. 00:23:11.786 --> 00:23:13.046 'cause those are some major 00:23:13.081 --> 00:23:13.861 Louie: things, man. 00:23:14.216 --> 00:23:15.686 Jon: that you just described to me. 00:23:15.686 --> 00:23:17.306 So that does not sound rosy. 00:23:17.786 --> 00:23:21.176 That does not sound like something that I wanna put my money into. 00:23:21.551 --> 00:23:22.301 Louie: who would wanna do that? 00:23:22.301 --> 00:23:23.231 Who would wanna buy into that? 00:23:23.276 --> 00:23:24.116 Jon: That sounds, yeah. 00:23:24.116 --> 00:23:25.436 Not very optimistic. 00:23:25.441 --> 00:23:25.621 Yeah. 00:23:25.841 --> 00:23:26.111 Louie: yep. 00:23:26.501 --> 00:23:29.291 And of course, we all know that's the United States, and that's 00:23:29.291 --> 00:23:32.051 what's happened over the last 50 or 60 years in this country. 00:23:32.351 --> 00:23:35.891 And the average return for the s and p 500 index fund over 00:23:35.891 --> 00:23:37.751 that time has been about 10%. 00:23:37.751 --> 00:23:37.811 Wow. 00:23:38.726 --> 00:23:41.396 Jon: Despite all of those challenges and hiccups, 00:23:41.441 --> 00:23:44.021 Louie: all of that, and that goes to John's point that he mentioned right 00:23:44.021 --> 00:23:47.961 before that, which was, there's, every time it's different things, crazy things 00:23:47.961 --> 00:23:49.821 happen, but the market always goes up. 00:23:50.131 --> 00:23:52.261 that just illustrates, and of course you guys knew that's what I was 00:23:52.261 --> 00:23:54.601 talking about was the United States, but it puts it in perspective, right? 00:23:54.651 --> 00:23:57.891 I can talk to you about all the bad things that happen, and we could talk about all 00:23:57.891 --> 00:24:01.671 the black swans and all the potential problems that a country's gonna face. 00:24:01.891 --> 00:24:03.841 and we're gonna have more of those over the next 50 years. 00:24:03.841 --> 00:24:06.481 We have no reason to believe that we're not gonna have that. 00:24:06.631 --> 00:24:07.921 But even through all of that. 00:24:08.836 --> 00:24:10.466 The stock market went up, up. 00:24:10.766 --> 00:24:13.376 And if you're not an investor, you lose out on that. 00:24:13.436 --> 00:24:17.666 If you let fear dictate your decision to save and invest your money, you 00:24:17.666 --> 00:24:21.536 would've lost out on some massive wealth building opportunity. 00:24:21.596 --> 00:24:21.986 Incredible. 00:24:22.091 --> 00:24:22.391 Jon: Yep. 00:24:22.721 --> 00:24:25.721 And it's one of those things like the stock market, generally speaking, 00:24:25.771 --> 00:24:28.791 if you wanna make an analogy, it's like a forest to some degree. 00:24:28.791 --> 00:24:31.701 And we know that a lot of the trees, especially in Colorado, they 00:24:31.701 --> 00:24:35.216 thrive or they only grow, is when there's a little bit of fire that 00:24:35.216 --> 00:24:37.556 comes underneath there, The forest fire that comes underneath there. 00:24:37.616 --> 00:24:41.576 And sometimes, just with the nature of the stock market it need, it does need 00:24:41.576 --> 00:24:45.326 something to come in there and shake things up and recognize which companies 00:24:45.326 --> 00:24:46.766 are good, which companies are bad. 00:24:46.766 --> 00:24:49.046 And the ones that are good will always survive. 00:24:49.266 --> 00:24:53.866 They've got certain, economic productivity and moats that will help keep them 00:24:53.866 --> 00:24:56.116 safe and secure, even in bad times. 00:24:56.296 --> 00:24:57.826 And then they end up thriving down the road. 00:24:57.826 --> 00:24:59.986 And those companies that weren't really that great to begin with. 00:25:00.256 --> 00:25:03.766 Guess what, they get flushed down the toilet and then a new company will 00:25:03.766 --> 00:25:07.036 have the opportunity to come in there and take whatever space they were. 00:25:07.036 --> 00:25:08.896 So it's just part of a natural business cycle. 00:25:08.896 --> 00:25:12.346 And I know Louis, that's what his expertise is and that's what his schooling 00:25:12.346 --> 00:25:16.636 was all in about was cycles and business productivity and how all that happens. 00:25:16.636 --> 00:25:19.576 So at the end of the day, like it really is a question. 00:25:19.576 --> 00:25:21.556 And we obviously have some home country bias. 00:25:21.556 --> 00:25:24.406 We're all Americans here and obviously there's a lot of eng 00:25:24.616 --> 00:25:26.206 ingenuity and innovation here. 00:25:26.206 --> 00:25:29.456 But at the end of the day, like that's why I continue to put 00:25:29.456 --> 00:25:30.776 money into the stock market. 00:25:30.776 --> 00:25:34.046 'cause I believe in people like Louie and people that graduate from 00:25:34.046 --> 00:25:38.036 Michigan and all these other schools that, their whole job is to make 00:25:38.126 --> 00:25:40.316 businesses more efficient and effective. 00:25:40.616 --> 00:25:44.276 And as long as we continue to have that spirit here, like I am a firm 00:25:44.276 --> 00:25:47.886 believer that there are innovations, there are efficiencies and companies 00:25:47.886 --> 00:25:49.796 will Continue to become productive. 00:25:49.796 --> 00:25:51.986 So that's really what you're buying into. 00:25:51.986 --> 00:25:53.786 It's not just even one specific company. 00:25:53.786 --> 00:25:56.636 'cause Louis and I will talk about how we buy index funds, so we 00:25:56.636 --> 00:25:58.016 don't invest in just one company. 00:25:58.016 --> 00:26:01.946 But if you believe in the philosophy behind it and the concept behind 00:26:01.946 --> 00:26:05.936 it, then you know, that's why we continue to invest day in and day out. 00:26:05.936 --> 00:26:09.626 But, it's always, a little bit scary when you're in certain times. 00:26:09.626 --> 00:26:13.176 And sometimes you just need a little resetting in perspective on what 00:26:13.176 --> 00:26:17.586 you're actually doing, which kind of parlays into our next topic. 00:26:17.946 --> 00:26:19.896 And that's to have basically a financial plan. 00:26:19.896 --> 00:26:22.746 And I know at the very beginning, Louis and I talked about the 00:26:22.746 --> 00:26:25.956 pillars, and one of the pillars is really having a sound strategy. 00:26:25.956 --> 00:26:28.176 having an understanding of why you're investing. 00:26:28.656 --> 00:26:29.616 To begin with, right? 00:26:29.616 --> 00:26:33.756 what's even the purpose behind why you're setting money away for whatever goal or 00:26:33.756 --> 00:26:37.896 whatever dream you have, and that's really creating that investor policy statement. 00:26:37.896 --> 00:26:37.956 Yeah. 00:26:38.146 --> 00:26:41.986 and it's times like now, which is really when you should step back and 00:26:41.986 --> 00:26:44.026 revisit your investor policy statement. 00:26:44.026 --> 00:26:44.821 Yeah, absolutely. 00:26:44.866 --> 00:26:45.646 and look at that. 00:26:45.791 --> 00:26:47.471 Louie: let's, and so let's unpack that a little bit. 00:26:47.681 --> 00:26:50.951 John, I'm gonna ask you another question and actually, I probably know the 00:26:50.951 --> 00:26:52.211 answer, but I'm gonna ask it anyway. 00:26:52.481 --> 00:26:54.881 How much stock have you sold during this crash? 00:26:54.881 --> 00:26:56.801 How much have you freaked out and sold some stock? 00:26:56.851 --> 00:26:57.631 what percentage? 00:26:57.676 --> 00:26:58.206 Jon: Oh, yeah. 00:26:58.206 --> 00:26:59.976 How much have I, how much have I sold? 00:26:59.976 --> 00:27:03.026 And went into some safety net, like cash, zero. 00:27:03.086 --> 00:27:08.206 I have honestly only continued to add, just as my, monthly 4 00:27:08.206 --> 00:27:09.856 57 contributions go in there. 00:27:10.246 --> 00:27:12.376 Katie and I have our own little brokerage account and we 00:27:12.376 --> 00:27:13.996 just continue to add to that. 00:27:14.716 --> 00:27:17.776 So a lot of that is, I know what my time horizon 00:27:18.076 --> 00:27:18.226 Louie: You 00:27:18.531 --> 00:27:18.731 Jon: a plan? 00:27:18.826 --> 00:27:20.086 I have a plan, yep. 00:27:20.146 --> 00:27:20.836 I have a plan. 00:27:20.836 --> 00:27:24.406 And I know that I don't need this money anytime in the near future. 00:27:24.736 --> 00:27:26.566 Not in the next six months, not in the next year. 00:27:26.566 --> 00:27:27.886 Not even the next five years. 00:27:27.886 --> 00:27:31.136 I'm still, forward looking 15 years into the future, but. 00:27:31.341 --> 00:27:33.111 Before, potentially I'll touch any of this stuff. 00:27:33.111 --> 00:27:36.801 So I feel pretty safe and secure that over the next 10 or 15 years 00:27:36.991 --> 00:27:40.441 that money will continue to compound and grow and everything else. 00:27:40.441 --> 00:27:45.421 But yes, to go back to Louie's point is we have a sound statement, a policy that 00:27:45.421 --> 00:27:49.801 this is why we're doing what we're doing and why we're not gonna deviate from that. 00:27:49.801 --> 00:27:51.721 So that is a solid point. 00:27:51.726 --> 00:27:53.911 How about yourself, Louie, you and Caitlyn? 00:27:53.946 --> 00:27:54.276 Louie: Same. 00:27:54.281 --> 00:27:54.431 Have you guys, 00:27:54.531 --> 00:27:56.041 Jon: sold any, any stocks? 00:27:56.041 --> 00:27:57.691 Are you taking some losses or, 00:27:57.786 --> 00:28:01.846 Louie: about liquidating so we could build a bunker, in our backyard and we can buy 00:28:01.846 --> 00:28:04.546 more ammo and toilet paper of course. 00:28:04.546 --> 00:28:07.036 'cause that's apparently what, tough economic times means is 00:28:07.066 --> 00:28:08.146 you need to buy toilet paper. 00:28:08.576 --> 00:28:08.906 but. 00:28:09.656 --> 00:28:11.456 Truthfully, no, we have not sold anything. 00:28:11.456 --> 00:28:15.116 And same thing, in fact, we've probably bought more stocks 00:28:15.116 --> 00:28:16.466 over the last few months. 00:28:16.826 --> 00:28:20.516 Warren Buffet, one of the greatest investors of all time, has this quote, 00:28:20.516 --> 00:28:22.976 and I'm gonna butcher it 'cause I actually don't remember what it was. 00:28:23.271 --> 00:28:24.201 Jon: But you understand the 00:28:24.521 --> 00:28:25.261 Louie: You understand the intent. 00:28:25.496 --> 00:28:28.076 And it's that the stock, he's once said, the stock market's the 00:28:28.076 --> 00:28:30.796 only thing that goes on sale and everyone runs away from and that's 00:28:30.796 --> 00:28:32.291 what happens when stocks decline. 00:28:32.291 --> 00:28:36.176 If you have a 10% decline in stocks or a 20% decline in stocks are on sale. 00:28:36.176 --> 00:28:39.806 The value of those stocks, each share of those, of that stock is cheaper. 00:28:40.196 --> 00:28:43.016 But instead of being like, Hey, this is awesome, this is an awesome sale, 00:28:43.016 --> 00:28:44.546 I can get some discount stocks. 00:28:44.726 --> 00:28:47.136 People instead generally say, maybe I should sell mine too. 00:28:47.196 --> 00:28:51.336 Maybe I should get outta the market or turn down or whatever. 00:28:51.336 --> 00:28:53.436 And that is generally not a good idea. 00:28:53.436 --> 00:28:57.216 if the market's, zigging you, you probably want to be zagging. 00:28:57.216 --> 00:28:58.866 That's just generally good advice. 00:28:58.866 --> 00:29:03.016 And I think, John, you mentioned, an investor policy statement, having some 00:29:03.406 --> 00:29:08.086 way that you can hold yourself accountable and say, look, it's scary right now. 00:29:08.086 --> 00:29:11.626 There's a lot of crazy headlines, but I know that I have a long-term plan. 00:29:11.866 --> 00:29:15.686 If you can do that, you will, you will be doing yourself a massive 00:29:15.686 --> 00:29:18.266 favor throughout the years 'cause you will experience recessions, you will 00:29:18.266 --> 00:29:20.186 experience crashes and bear markets. 00:29:20.366 --> 00:29:24.796 And if you are not, able to be, flapping in the wind when that happens and 00:29:24.796 --> 00:29:28.846 you can have a solid, plan that you stick to during those tough economic 00:29:28.846 --> 00:29:31.126 times, you will not lose money. 00:29:31.126 --> 00:29:32.567 And in fact, you'll make money in the long run. 00:29:32.596 --> 00:29:32.776 Jon: run. 00:29:33.106 --> 00:29:33.316 Yeah. 00:29:33.316 --> 00:29:35.506 I was, listening to some podcast. 00:29:35.506 --> 00:29:39.646 I can't remember which one it was, and it was right after Liberation Day, I think. 00:29:39.646 --> 00:29:42.796 And then there was the following two or three days post that were, I think the 00:29:42.796 --> 00:29:44.806 market had dropped like nine or 10%. 00:29:44.851 --> 00:29:44.911 Yeah. 00:29:45.541 --> 00:29:48.181 And then the following Monday, I think there were some more 00:29:48.181 --> 00:29:50.041 announcements about some more tariffs. 00:29:50.321 --> 00:29:54.431 and then it went down like another four or 5% that Monday, and I remember they 00:29:54.431 --> 00:29:56.591 were referencing back volume flows. 00:29:56.601 --> 00:30:01.251 And there's certain, custodians that are more retail friendly, like Robinhood 00:30:01.251 --> 00:30:02.931 and some of these other ones Yeah. 00:30:02.931 --> 00:30:06.751 Where they saw so much, people pulling out money on that Monday. 00:30:06.751 --> 00:30:10.861 So after it already dropped about 10% and then it was dropping another two, two to 00:30:10.861 --> 00:30:13.291 3% and they had withdrawn a lot of money. 00:30:13.741 --> 00:30:18.121 And then it's the next day that they make these a new announcements that, oh, we're 00:30:18.121 --> 00:30:20.011 actually gonna pause tariffs for 90 days. 00:30:20.251 --> 00:30:21.841 And the stock market went up 10%. 00:30:22.321 --> 00:30:25.141 And it literally is the worst thing they could have. 00:30:25.181 --> 00:30:25.901 Possibly 00:30:26.041 --> 00:30:26.101 Louie: Ugh. 00:30:26.651 --> 00:30:30.281 Jon: And it just, and this happens, like we talk about how every 00:30:30.461 --> 00:30:31.781 cycle is a little bit different. 00:30:31.781 --> 00:30:33.101 Every crisis a little bit different. 00:30:33.101 --> 00:30:35.651 Every reason that the stock market goes down is a little bit different. 00:30:35.651 --> 00:30:39.141 There's some type of shock that was just un, unprecedented, unaccounted 00:30:39.141 --> 00:30:43.731 for, but people, and it continues to happen all the time, is they absolutely 00:30:43.731 --> 00:30:45.411 take their money out at the worst time. 00:30:46.106 --> 00:30:46.436 Louie: Always 00:30:46.521 --> 00:30:47.691 Jon: imagine fueling that. 00:30:47.691 --> 00:30:51.711 oh my God, okay, I feel like this is gonna go to zero, so I'm gonna liquidate all my 00:30:51.711 --> 00:30:53.931 things and be like, okay, now I'm safe. 00:30:54.051 --> 00:30:58.801 And then literally within, the next day, within three hours, it shoots back up 10%. 00:30:58.801 --> 00:31:02.271 And it's just one of those things you can just not time the market on these things. 00:31:02.271 --> 00:31:05.511 And it's not just retail investors, it's even institutional folks. 00:31:05.511 --> 00:31:06.351 It's hedge folks. 00:31:06.621 --> 00:31:10.281 All people are susceptible to this whenever you're trying to time the market 00:31:10.281 --> 00:31:12.381 or get in and out of certain positions. 00:31:12.381 --> 00:31:13.911 So it's just one of those things. 00:31:14.421 --> 00:31:18.231 But, so how about this, Louis, but what do you say to someone, and I've had 00:31:18.261 --> 00:31:22.071 some of these conversations with someone that's so they're not a defined benefit. 00:31:22.331 --> 00:31:22.841 Person. 00:31:22.871 --> 00:31:24.911 Alright, so they're all in a money purchase. 00:31:24.911 --> 00:31:27.071 So they are in our 4 0 1 a plan. 00:31:27.311 --> 00:31:29.501 So that is what their retirement is based off. 00:31:29.501 --> 00:31:31.601 They don't have the safety net at a fine benefit. 00:31:31.661 --> 00:31:35.261 And they're in the stock market and they're invested and 00:31:35.351 --> 00:31:38.201 their portfolio is down 25%. 00:31:38.201 --> 00:31:41.691 So they've, I've talked to people and they've lost, $300,000 in 00:31:41.691 --> 00:31:43.971 the last three weeks and they're like, okay, this sounds great. 00:31:43.971 --> 00:31:45.801 Louie, you and John are both kicking back 00:31:45.816 --> 00:31:45.966 Louie: to me. 00:31:46.116 --> 00:31:46.296 Sure, 00:31:46.551 --> 00:31:50.091 Jon: man, I'm down like 30% here and I just lost 300 grand. 00:31:50.141 --> 00:31:51.041 what am I supposed to do 00:31:51.056 --> 00:31:51.746 Louie: And I, yeah. 00:31:51.806 --> 00:31:52.136 And, and that's a 00:31:52.246 --> 00:31:52.991 Jon: and that's real and 00:31:53.126 --> 00:31:54.176 Louie: it is totally real. 00:31:54.266 --> 00:31:56.966 And let me tell you this, and I'm not gonna apologize for saying this. 00:31:57.296 --> 00:32:00.876 If you are, just a few years out of retirement and you are a hundred 00:32:00.876 --> 00:32:04.446 percent invested in stocks and you are experiencing this kind of economic, 00:32:04.546 --> 00:32:07.966 downturn or shock to the stock market, you've already screwed up. 00:32:08.086 --> 00:32:09.256 You already screwed yourself. 00:32:09.256 --> 00:32:11.926 And you should have had a financial planner, you should have had 00:32:11.926 --> 00:32:13.246 a certified financial planner. 00:32:14.056 --> 00:32:19.216 Walk you through a better stock allocation because the time to make moves is not 00:32:19.216 --> 00:32:21.706 during the middle of a stock market crash. 00:32:22.186 --> 00:32:26.146 Just like John said, people will lose out on the upswings after severe downswings. 00:32:26.446 --> 00:32:27.526 So you've already messed up. 00:32:27.526 --> 00:32:30.646 If you are a few years outta retirement and you're a hundred percent in stocks 00:32:30.886 --> 00:32:36.946 and you cannot stomach a 25% drop if your portfolio cannot handle that, Bubba, you 00:32:36.946 --> 00:32:41.176 need to start looking at either delaying your retirement, continuing to work, and 00:32:41.176 --> 00:32:43.966 you need a financial planner to set you straight because you already messed up. 00:32:44.371 --> 00:32:47.611 Jon: And that's one of the things where honestly, and I've said this before, 00:32:47.611 --> 00:32:51.481 I think some of the best financial advice are where financial advisors 00:32:51.481 --> 00:32:55.441 really make their money, so to speak, is not in outperforming the market. 00:32:55.441 --> 00:32:59.596 We've already proven that is not effective, but it is in behavior and 00:32:59.596 --> 00:33:03.196 letting their clients know that, this time it does feel different and it is 00:33:03.196 --> 00:33:07.386 a little bit different, but we're gonna stick with the, our investment philosophy. 00:33:07.476 --> 00:33:11.196 And they really prevent them from really go getting out over their 00:33:11.196 --> 00:33:12.906 skis and really messing things up. 00:33:12.996 --> 00:33:15.876 And that to me is sound financial advice. 00:33:15.876 --> 00:33:18.696 And that's really what advisors are all doing for their clients. 00:33:18.696 --> 00:33:18.966 Right now. 00:33:18.966 --> 00:33:19.146 I have. 00:33:19.401 --> 00:33:23.426 I have a few friends that are advisors, and these, the, they hate these markets 00:33:23.426 --> 00:33:26.666 more than anyone because they are overwhelmed with client calls, people 00:33:26.666 --> 00:33:31.806 calling in super nervous, super confused, wanting to do things, and a lot of 'em 00:33:31.806 --> 00:33:35.046 are just spending time on the phones and just walking them through, listen. 00:33:35.471 --> 00:33:38.741 We didn't know that this was gonna happen for one, but we are set up to 00:33:38.741 --> 00:33:41.951 weather this storm and we're not gonna sell a bunch of things at losses. 00:33:42.201 --> 00:33:43.791 and then try to make it up on the back end. 00:33:43.791 --> 00:33:47.181 So I don't want to discount people's feelings and their being 00:33:47.181 --> 00:33:50.511 scared, but I think at a minimum this should be a wake up call. 00:33:50.751 --> 00:33:54.541 And if you are in, if you're one of the members that we're talking about 00:33:54.541 --> 00:33:57.821 or listening to this or someone that's in this position, it's one of those 00:33:57.821 --> 00:34:01.901 things where they do want to seek some financial counsel and some advice and, 00:34:01.901 --> 00:34:05.801 help weather the storm and move forward and come up with a plan because, yeah, 00:34:05.801 --> 00:34:07.761 I agree with you, your asset allocation. 00:34:07.761 --> 00:34:12.021 So how much exposure you had to some risky assets, which stocks are all risky. 00:34:12.021 --> 00:34:12.891 There's no safe. 00:34:12.906 --> 00:34:16.296 Stock out there that's not susceptible to some type of declines. 00:34:16.566 --> 00:34:20.766 And Louis and I will talk about just how natural it is for the stock market 00:34:20.766 --> 00:34:22.836 to go, up and down throughout the year. 00:34:22.836 --> 00:34:25.076 And this is all, some form of normalcy. 00:34:25.076 --> 00:34:28.436 It's just the speed and the rate at which this has changed 00:34:28.436 --> 00:34:30.356 that really have people concern. 00:34:30.356 --> 00:34:31.106 So yeah. 00:34:31.106 --> 00:34:34.376 But that, but I don't want to discount their feelings and their level of 00:34:34.376 --> 00:34:37.706 scaredness, but for, people that are a little bit maybe further out on 00:34:37.706 --> 00:34:42.386 the curve, like 10, 15 years out from retirement and you still, still feel 00:34:42.386 --> 00:34:44.566 like This is not causing me to sleep. 00:34:45.016 --> 00:34:48.616 It's not too late to change what some of your allocation looks like and 00:34:48.616 --> 00:34:50.386 maybe going into some safer assets. 00:34:50.386 --> 00:34:50.986 that's okay. 00:34:50.986 --> 00:34:55.306 A lot of this, it's totally dependent on people's specific behaviors 00:34:55.576 --> 00:34:56.866 and how they view certain things. 00:34:56.866 --> 00:34:59.386 And there's some ardent investors that are like, man, if this thing 00:34:59.386 --> 00:35:01.696 goes down 40%, I'm okay with that. 00:35:01.696 --> 00:35:04.546 'cause I believe within the next two to three years that this thing will fully 00:35:04.546 --> 00:35:05.686 recover and I don't need the money. 00:35:05.686 --> 00:35:06.616 Like I'm okay with that. 00:35:07.036 --> 00:35:08.686 Those are the exceptions and not the rule. 00:35:08.686 --> 00:35:12.826 Most other people see, you know, they have a million and a half dollars in their 00:35:12.826 --> 00:35:14.566 4 0 1 A and it goes down to a million. 00:35:14.896 --> 00:35:19.076 They're panicking and I feel that and I respect that, but that should just help 00:35:19.076 --> 00:35:23.126 reset your compass on what you should be doing in the future and just understanding 00:35:23.126 --> 00:35:26.876 that yeah, stock market is risky and there are gonna be periods where it is 00:35:26.876 --> 00:35:30.626 gonna drop 15, 20, 30% in a given year. 00:35:30.626 --> 00:35:34.286 And that's just something that you have to understand and that you either 00:35:34.286 --> 00:35:37.166 you have to weather or you have to have a portfolio that protects you 00:35:37.166 --> 00:35:39.236 more from some of those swings. 00:35:39.261 --> 00:35:39.501 Louie: Yep. 00:35:39.666 --> 00:35:40.356 Jon: I don't know. 00:35:40.356 --> 00:35:41.346 Is there anything else you got 00:35:41.396 --> 00:35:41.636 Louie: no. 00:35:41.696 --> 00:35:42.386 I agree with you. 00:35:42.386 --> 00:35:43.826 I think you gotta have some protection. 00:35:43.826 --> 00:35:46.976 The market always goes up in the long term, but in the short term it does not. 00:35:46.976 --> 00:35:47.876 It goes up and down. 00:35:48.176 --> 00:35:50.096 So you gotta tune out that noise and make sure that you're 00:35:50.096 --> 00:35:50.996 comfortable with your plan. 00:35:50.996 --> 00:35:54.026 And if you're losing sleep at night and if it makes you sick to your stomach thinking 00:35:54.026 --> 00:35:57.776 about it 'cause you're close to retirement or for whatever reason, then that's a sign 00:35:57.776 --> 00:35:59.426 that you're too aggressively invested. 00:35:59.676 --> 00:36:02.437 you need to talk to a CFP and try to figure that out because you've 00:36:02.442 --> 00:36:03.756 made some bad decisions so far. 00:36:03.816 --> 00:36:06.066 Doesn't mean you can't recover from, doesn't mean it's the end of the world, 00:36:06.576 --> 00:36:07.896 but it does mean you need to reconsider. 00:36:07.956 --> 00:36:08.226 Jon: Yeah. 00:36:08.316 --> 00:36:11.466 And that's one of the things I put in our little, our little notes page here, 00:36:11.466 --> 00:36:16.506 is you have to decide and understand what game you're playing, so to speak. 00:36:16.566 --> 00:36:18.306 And there's two different takes on that. 00:36:18.486 --> 00:36:20.856 You're either on an investor or you're a trader. 00:36:20.856 --> 00:36:21.966 You can't be both. 00:36:21.966 --> 00:36:25.746 And this is where I see people make the most mistakes, is they they get 00:36:25.746 --> 00:36:29.406 caught up in what game they're playing and there's either one strategy, 00:36:29.406 --> 00:36:30.846 either go one way or the other. 00:36:31.116 --> 00:36:35.046 An investor is someone that believes, in the stock market long term and they 00:36:35.046 --> 00:36:38.861 make, certain, contributions to the stock market and they believe over 00:36:38.861 --> 00:36:41.981 a long term that's gonna pay them back at some type of rate of return. 00:36:42.031 --> 00:36:47.851 historically, about 10% traders are the people that CNBC and X and all 00:36:47.851 --> 00:36:51.721 these other communication platforms, they are trying to engage you into. 00:36:51.901 --> 00:36:55.681 Becoming a trader, and that's moving in and out of stock positions on either, 00:36:55.871 --> 00:36:59.261 multiple times per day or holding it short term for a couple days and 00:36:59.261 --> 00:37:03.401 then selling it and using all sorts of different technical analysis tools 00:37:03.401 --> 00:37:05.811 to basically put on these, positions. 00:37:05.811 --> 00:37:09.201 And I would say the majority of people are not built for that. 00:37:09.231 --> 00:37:11.001 A, you don't have the technical expertise. 00:37:11.001 --> 00:37:12.591 B, you don't have the bankroll for it. 00:37:12.591 --> 00:37:15.711 And C, most of our folks just don't have the stomach for it. 00:37:16.461 --> 00:37:19.951 They just don't truly, even if you have a gambler mentality, putting 00:37:19.951 --> 00:37:23.161 all your eggs in one basket on a certain strategy and expecting it to 00:37:23.161 --> 00:37:26.941 do one thing, man, people just get, they just get eaten up all day long 00:37:26.941 --> 00:37:30.121 Louie: and the overwhelming majority of traders are gonna lose to investors. 00:37:30.211 --> 00:37:33.181 The, like John said, the investor invest for the long term, they're in it 00:37:33.631 --> 00:37:38.011 to build wealth over a long period of time, and that a trader wants to make 00:37:38.011 --> 00:37:39.901 money within days or weeks or months. 00:37:40.121 --> 00:37:44.221 but if you look at all those traders, that are doing that on a regular basis, 00:37:44.251 --> 00:37:48.581 and you compare them to the average index fund investor, it's probably 98 00:37:48.581 --> 00:37:51.366 or 99% of 'em lose to the investor. 00:37:51.636 --> 00:37:55.626 So it's not a why strategy and it's gonna give you, all ulcers and 00:37:55.626 --> 00:37:56.646 you're gonna lose sleep at night. 00:37:57.246 --> 00:38:00.726 We, at the fiscal firehouse advocate for investing, right? 00:38:00.726 --> 00:38:05.796 we are long term buy and hold, preferably index fund investors, 00:38:06.046 --> 00:38:09.016 because we believe that is the key to financial freedom for most people, 00:38:09.016 --> 00:38:10.606 for the vast majority of people. 00:38:10.666 --> 00:38:15.026 Jon: And it's been proven for, over a century of this strategy, so to speak. 00:38:15.026 --> 00:38:15.296 It is. 00:38:15.606 --> 00:38:19.676 time and time again, despite of what crisis has been bestowed upon us, it 00:38:19.676 --> 00:38:21.806 continues to prove to be effective. 00:38:21.806 --> 00:38:26.386 And until that data changes and all of a sudden we, Louie and I are left in 00:38:26.386 --> 00:38:29.776 the wind and this strategy no longer works, then we will be the first one to 00:38:29.776 --> 00:38:32.176 cry Uncle and set the record straight. 00:38:32.176 --> 00:38:34.816 But this has been proven time and time again. 00:38:34.816 --> 00:38:36.556 And the other part is, and we know. 00:38:37.136 --> 00:38:37.856 It's easy. 00:38:38.036 --> 00:38:41.846 It is as easy as just setting it and forgetting it and not touching it for 00:38:41.846 --> 00:38:45.116 30 years and then getting ready to retire and be like, man, this is great. 00:38:45.116 --> 00:38:46.586 I've got this big pool of cash. 00:38:46.706 --> 00:38:49.946 And you don't have to get caught up in the drama that the 00:38:49.946 --> 00:38:54.026 financial media and everyone else likes to, that likes to create. 00:38:54.266 --> 00:38:57.446 It literally just keeps you completely out of that and you're just focused 00:38:57.446 --> 00:39:01.586 on your family and whatever brings you happiness and not having to worry on a 00:39:01.586 --> 00:39:05.036 day-to-day basis on what the market's doing, you really shouldn't care. 00:39:05.276 --> 00:39:08.816 Like for if you're 25 years old right now and you're on medic one, 00:39:08.816 --> 00:39:11.906 you should not give two craps about what the stock market is doing 00:39:11.941 --> 00:39:12.871 Louie: Not one bit. 00:39:12.896 --> 00:39:15.386 Jon: in fact, if you're on the younger end of. 00:39:15.396 --> 00:39:19.536 Things, you are actually hoping for the stock market to not go up at all 00:39:19.626 --> 00:39:21.756 really for the foreseeable future. 00:39:21.756 --> 00:39:25.386 So you can buy stocks at a cheaper price and have more shares in that 00:39:25.386 --> 00:39:28.716 stock, and then towards the end of your career or the middle career, 00:39:28.896 --> 00:39:30.096 that thing starts running up. 00:39:30.126 --> 00:39:31.236 Then you've gotten all those things. 00:39:31.236 --> 00:39:35.096 So I think there's a big misconception on people always want the stock market 00:39:35.096 --> 00:39:39.266 going up because a lot of investors, especially younger ones do not, they 00:39:39.266 --> 00:39:43.346 want that thing to stay depressed or at a minimal amount of gain every year. 00:39:43.346 --> 00:39:47.006 So they continue to buy shares at a lower price, and then at the very 00:39:47.006 --> 00:39:48.296 end, hopefully that thing goes up. 00:39:48.296 --> 00:39:51.236 So it really once again gets to what game are you playing and 00:39:51.236 --> 00:39:52.646 what's your time horizon exactly. 00:39:52.646 --> 00:39:52.671 We're 00:39:53.281 --> 00:39:53.761 Louie: said, John. 00:39:53.761 --> 00:39:54.211 Well said. 00:39:54.571 --> 00:39:57.931 Jon: So one of the things I wanted to talk about really quickly is we're just 00:39:57.931 --> 00:40:01.681 trying to provide some financial literacy out there so people can speak a little 00:40:01.681 --> 00:40:03.361 bit more intelligently on these things. 00:40:03.361 --> 00:40:06.511 But when we talk about the stock market, Lou and I have referenced 00:40:06.511 --> 00:40:10.381 that multiple times, there are certain different sectors or certain different 00:40:10.381 --> 00:40:14.911 indexes that I think sometimes, the general media will basically refer to 00:40:14.911 --> 00:40:16.591 two different type of indexes, right? 00:40:16.801 --> 00:40:19.621 So whether the stock market went up or went down, it's basically 00:40:19.621 --> 00:40:21.151 looking at two different indexes. 00:40:21.201 --> 00:40:26.541 So one of 'em, and the longest running one is the Dow Jones indexed, right? 00:40:26.601 --> 00:40:29.631 This thing, man, I had to put in the notes and I had to do some research, 00:40:29.631 --> 00:40:30.771 but this thing has been around for a 00:40:30.811 --> 00:40:31.556 Louie: Long time, man. 00:40:31.736 --> 00:40:32.426 Jon: long time. 00:40:32.486 --> 00:40:36.986 1896 is when this thing got founded and it started with 12 companies. 00:40:37.046 --> 00:40:38.366 Now it has. 00:40:38.381 --> 00:40:41.531 30 companies in it and it's had 30 companies in it for a long time. 00:40:41.861 --> 00:40:45.011 And you guys would definitely recognize some of these companies. 00:40:45.091 --> 00:40:47.641 Goldman Sachs is a big investment company. 00:40:47.911 --> 00:40:51.571 UnitedHealth is one of the largest, health insurers in our country. 00:40:51.781 --> 00:40:53.281 Microsoft Home Depot. 00:40:53.281 --> 00:40:54.601 That's just some of these ones. 00:40:54.841 --> 00:40:58.951 It typically tends to be, A little bit more, I would say defensive to 00:40:58.951 --> 00:41:02.341 some degree as, as far as it doesn't have as many growth stocks or so 00:41:02.341 --> 00:41:06.071 much, technology exposure as like the s and p 500, which we'll talk 00:41:06.071 --> 00:41:10.571 about it in a minute, but at the end of the day, it's 30 large profitable 00:41:10.571 --> 00:41:12.611 companies that makes up this index. 00:41:12.611 --> 00:41:16.271 So that's one of the things when people talk about the stock market, that may 00:41:16.271 --> 00:41:18.611 be a index that they're referencing. 00:41:18.881 --> 00:41:22.331 And we, I put this in the show notes for, yesterday. 00:41:22.511 --> 00:41:24.731 It was down about 7% year to date. 00:41:24.731 --> 00:41:29.171 So from January 1st till April 16th, it had only been down about 7%. 00:41:29.381 --> 00:41:33.341 Man, it feels like it's been down a lot more than that just because of the peaks 00:41:33.341 --> 00:41:38.591 and valleys of this particular index and how much it's been really volatile. 00:41:38.591 --> 00:41:41.591 And it's typically in the past has been something that hasn't been as 00:41:41.591 --> 00:41:43.361 volatile as some of the other indexes. 00:41:43.361 --> 00:41:48.081 So that is one, index that you might hear about in just some of the companies 00:41:48.321 --> 00:41:49.881 that are incorporated into that. 00:41:50.301 --> 00:41:52.071 The other most common. 00:41:52.141 --> 00:41:52.951 reference index. 00:41:52.951 --> 00:41:55.951 And this is when I talk about the stock market and when Louis talks 00:41:55.951 --> 00:41:59.371 about the stock market and honestly, any professional that you talk about 00:41:59.371 --> 00:42:00.661 it, this is what they're tracking. 00:42:00.931 --> 00:42:05.071 This is how they are viewing the stock market, and that's the s and p 500 index. 00:42:05.071 --> 00:42:05.431 All right. 00:42:05.431 --> 00:42:07.886 Louis and I talk exclusively about this love, 00:42:07.996 --> 00:42:08.536 Louie: the s and p 00:42:08.826 --> 00:42:09.046 Jon: lu. 00:42:09.331 --> 00:42:09.931 Love it. 00:42:09.931 --> 00:42:13.051 And once again, this thing has been in, has been around for a long time. 00:42:13.051 --> 00:42:16.811 Originally, it started as just the s and p standard is POS created 00:42:16.811 --> 00:42:19.841 in 1923 with just 90 stocks. 00:42:20.051 --> 00:42:22.541 It then got renamed in 1957. 00:42:22.791 --> 00:42:26.961 and that's really where it brought in the five, 500 largest companies. 00:42:26.991 --> 00:42:27.351 All right. 00:42:28.341 --> 00:42:31.011 And this is once again, when we talk about the stock market, this 00:42:31.011 --> 00:42:32.361 is the one that we talk about it. 00:42:32.611 --> 00:42:36.271 how is it, how do they comprise the index, Louis, as far as 00:42:36.271 --> 00:42:37.901 what makes up the s and P 500? 00:42:37.901 --> 00:42:39.926 Is it just the most profitable companies? 00:42:39.926 --> 00:42:42.626 Like how do they decide which ones go into that Index General? 00:42:42.641 --> 00:42:45.791 Louie: Can they generally do it by the 500 largest companies, 00:42:45.791 --> 00:42:47.021 and that's on market cap. 00:42:47.411 --> 00:42:51.231 So it's based off a market cap, which, market cap for those that 00:42:51.231 --> 00:42:56.571 don't know is the stock price times the outstanding shares, of a company. 00:42:56.571 --> 00:42:57.411 And that is how much. 00:42:57.956 --> 00:43:00.086 Value the company is worth, that's how much it's worth. 00:43:00.086 --> 00:43:02.516 And there's probably some economists, I dunno if there's any economists 00:43:02.516 --> 00:43:04.766 listening to this, but if there is, they'd probably be like rolling their eyes. 00:43:04.766 --> 00:43:06.806 that's stupid oversimplification. 00:43:06.896 --> 00:43:11.206 But in general, those are how you determine the size of a company. 00:43:11.206 --> 00:43:15.736 So Standard and POS takes the 500 largest ones and they basically said 00:43:15.736 --> 00:43:18.946 Hey, this is a really good representation of the United States economy 'cause 00:43:18.946 --> 00:43:20.386 these are how the companies are doing. 00:43:20.386 --> 00:43:22.956 So if other companies are a majority of the companies are doing well or 00:43:22.956 --> 00:43:27.036 poor, it lets us know what, what's happening with the total economy. 00:43:27.096 --> 00:43:28.416 At least that's the theory behind it. 00:43:28.536 --> 00:43:30.756 And so that's what that index is. 00:43:30.841 --> 00:43:31.261 Jon: perfect. 00:43:31.261 --> 00:43:34.681 And that's one of those things, once again, when you think about the 500 00:43:34.681 --> 00:43:39.391 largest companies that gives you exposure to basically the whole US economy, right? 00:43:39.391 --> 00:43:43.441 So once again, these are US based companies that are in the s and p 500. 00:43:43.441 --> 00:43:45.921 and there's based on how much I'm just looking at the 00:43:45.921 --> 00:43:47.091 little components right now. 00:43:47.091 --> 00:43:53.681 So Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, meta, those make up the top five 00:43:53.681 --> 00:43:55.391 and even the heaviest weighted one. 00:43:55.391 --> 00:43:59.111 So Apple, which is the number one, the weight of that whole 00:43:59.111 --> 00:44:01.331 index is a little over 6%. 00:44:01.331 --> 00:44:05.801 So what I want you guys to take away from this is this gives you, even though 00:44:05.801 --> 00:44:09.911 there's 500 companies in here, there's still a certain level of concentration 00:44:09.911 --> 00:44:13.091 within those top 10 companies that still make up a lot of the index. 00:44:13.241 --> 00:44:16.976 And that's why when they're talking about the Mag seven, the magnificent 00:44:16.976 --> 00:44:20.756 seven, how, how they controlled so much of this index because they're 00:44:20.756 --> 00:44:22.166 so heavily weighted towards us. 00:44:22.166 --> 00:44:23.876 So that's just one of those things. 00:44:23.876 --> 00:44:28.396 But if you generally think about the overall economy, the s and p 500 is a 00:44:28.396 --> 00:44:31.966 good representation of how businesses are doing within the United States. 00:44:32.016 --> 00:44:35.526 Louie: and that's also why we really like index fund investing because if you were 00:44:35.526 --> 00:44:40.356 to buy a share of an s and p 500 index fund, let's say you are basically buying a 00:44:40.356 --> 00:44:42.666 small portion of each of those companies. 00:44:42.666 --> 00:44:45.426 So you are buying the United States economy. 00:44:45.526 --> 00:44:48.886 if you buy a share of s and p 500 Index fund, you're buying a little bit of 00:44:48.886 --> 00:44:51.646 Apple and a little bit of Microsoft and a little bit of Walmart, and a little 00:44:51.646 --> 00:44:56.396 bit of Costco, and you are continuing to buy those and you become an part owner. 00:44:56.426 --> 00:45:00.206 very small owner in all of those companies, which is awesome. 00:45:00.256 --> 00:45:03.106 that's how you build wealth and that's why we like index fund investing. 00:45:03.406 --> 00:45:05.386 Whether times are good or times are tough. 00:45:05.521 --> 00:45:05.821 Jon: Yep. 00:45:05.881 --> 00:45:08.491 And the s and p 500 is great 'cause it's self-selecting. 00:45:08.491 --> 00:45:12.001 So as the year goes through, if companies are not as profitable or 00:45:12.001 --> 00:45:15.691 they're not making as much earnings for their shareholder, they fall off 00:45:15.691 --> 00:45:19.231 and then someone, a more profitable company comes in and takes their place. 00:45:19.231 --> 00:45:23.581 So it really is getting the best of the best as far as all the US 00:45:23.581 --> 00:45:28.431 companies you can, and it's located within one stock, one, one mutual fund, 00:45:28.431 --> 00:45:30.531 one ex, one exchange, traded fund. 00:45:30.531 --> 00:45:34.101 You just buy the s and p 500 index and it really doesn't matter whether it's 00:45:34.101 --> 00:45:38.801 Vanguard or Fidelity or Schwab, they all have a similar, makeup of this. 00:45:38.801 --> 00:45:40.181 So it doesn't really matter. 00:45:40.361 --> 00:45:41.561 Keep your costs low. 00:45:41.711 --> 00:45:43.121 Figure out one of those things. 00:45:43.121 --> 00:45:46.001 And it truly is one of those, set it and forget it mentalities 00:45:46.061 --> 00:45:49.691 and just continue to, once again, this is not financial advice. 00:45:49.871 --> 00:45:52.181 This is what Louis does, this is what I do. 00:45:52.371 --> 00:45:54.921 generally looking forward, like this is just, to me, it 00:45:54.921 --> 00:45:56.181 makes a lot of logical sense. 00:45:56.421 --> 00:46:00.171 I, you're basically telling me that I own an index of the most profitable, 00:46:00.291 --> 00:46:01.941 largest companies in the United States. 00:46:02.271 --> 00:46:02.691 Sign me up. 00:46:02.691 --> 00:46:03.291 Sign me up. 00:46:03.411 --> 00:46:03.561 Yep. 00:46:03.771 --> 00:46:05.271 And that's what that thing is all about. 00:46:05.541 --> 00:46:08.961 What I did wanna highlight specifically about the s and p 00:46:08.961 --> 00:46:13.131 500, 'cause I know this is what a lot of people are invested in, is. 00:46:13.576 --> 00:46:16.546 So from the high, which is right around, I believe the end of February to the 00:46:16.546 --> 00:46:18.826 very bottom, it actually dropped 19%. 00:46:19.156 --> 00:46:22.256 Which if we go back to our, our terminology, that is 00:46:22.256 --> 00:46:23.786 almost a bear market, right? 00:46:23.786 --> 00:46:27.116 It almost hit that 20% and that's really what got a lot of people nervous, right? 00:46:27.116 --> 00:46:30.086 Because once again, John and Lou, you guys are talking to me, the s and p 500 00:46:30.086 --> 00:46:33.806 that talks about the general economy and now we're in almost a bear market. 00:46:33.806 --> 00:46:35.126 This sounds super concerning. 00:46:35.546 --> 00:46:38.966 What we do wanna highlight and something that, this is where, once again, 00:46:38.966 --> 00:46:41.276 data and research is super valuable. 00:46:41.606 --> 00:46:45.856 So what is an anomaly about this specific circumstance similar to Covid is just the 00:46:45.856 --> 00:46:50.236 speed and velocity for how this is all unfolded over a two, two and a half week. 00:46:50.851 --> 00:46:51.451 Standpoint. 00:46:51.501 --> 00:46:56.211 On average, the s and p 500 from the peak right to the bottom. 00:46:56.541 --> 00:46:59.271 If I was to ask you, Louie, like on average, like how much would 00:46:59.271 --> 00:47:03.591 that move and to consider that be a normal year, what would you say? 00:47:03.591 --> 00:47:05.481 Is it like 3%, 5%? 00:47:05.571 --> 00:47:05.931 I don't know. 00:47:05.931 --> 00:47:07.011 What does that seem like? 00:47:07.011 --> 00:47:07.371 Like 00:47:07.386 --> 00:47:08.256 Louie: the volatility is what 00:47:08.271 --> 00:47:11.721 Jon: yeah, so like from the time that it goes all the way up to the very, very 00:47:11.721 --> 00:47:16.351 bottom, like what would be, if you had to average all that out, on a yearly 00:47:16.351 --> 00:47:20.041 basis, what is, oh boy, 8%, 9%, 5%. 00:47:20.061 --> 00:47:21.321 Louie: so this is not something I know. 00:47:21.371 --> 00:47:23.351 I'll just guess 'cause I have no idea. 00:47:23.531 --> 00:47:23.831 Let's do 00:47:25.961 --> 00:47:26.681 9%. 00:47:26.681 --> 00:47:27.371 9%. 00:47:27.431 --> 00:47:27.851 Jon: All right. 00:47:27.851 --> 00:47:29.141 you're a little bit off. 00:47:29.211 --> 00:47:30.801 and this is one that actually surprised me. 00:47:30.801 --> 00:47:36.771 So this goes, so this was, this data goes back from 1928 to 2023. 00:47:36.771 --> 00:47:39.441 So almost a hundred year career. 00:47:39.711 --> 00:47:40.221 All right? 00:47:40.271 --> 00:47:41.351 it's 14%. 00:47:41.821 --> 00:47:46.351 14% is the average draw down without any type of crisis going on. 00:47:46.531 --> 00:47:52.111 Even on years in which we have gangbuster returns this thing, it will just move 00:47:52.111 --> 00:47:54.601 that much between the high and the low. 00:47:54.601 --> 00:47:58.711 So I'm not trying to discount the seriousness of what is 00:47:58.711 --> 00:48:00.301 currently going on or how it. 00:48:00.441 --> 00:48:01.221 Affects people. 00:48:01.491 --> 00:48:05.481 We are once again, just trying to reframe things and set expectations for 00:48:05.481 --> 00:48:07.251 people that are long-term investors. 00:48:07.251 --> 00:48:11.211 And to not do the immediate panic is, which is the natural 00:48:11.211 --> 00:48:13.011 inclination, is to go to safety. 00:48:13.401 --> 00:48:16.951 And Warren Buffett, once again, we quote him, it's, he's always, greedy 00:48:16.951 --> 00:48:18.241 when other people are fearful. 00:48:18.361 --> 00:48:22.111 And then when other people are greedy, he basically starts selling, right? 00:48:22.161 --> 00:48:26.071 that's the whole concept of, buy low, sell high kind of mentality. 00:48:26.071 --> 00:48:26.791 And it's tough. 00:48:26.791 --> 00:48:29.641 It is very tough to do from just a behavioral standpoint. 00:48:29.791 --> 00:48:32.461 And the reason is, and this is one of the things that I appreciate 00:48:32.461 --> 00:48:36.361 about my coursework when I got my education, is they spent so much 00:48:36.361 --> 00:48:39.276 time focusing on loss aversion. 00:48:39.466 --> 00:48:41.536 That's just this concept viscerally how we 00:48:41.561 --> 00:48:41.801 Louie: feel. 00:48:41.851 --> 00:48:43.591 Jon: when the market goes down 20%. 00:48:43.921 --> 00:48:48.481 I didn't hear anyone that I talked to the Elations that they felt when the 00:48:48.481 --> 00:48:53.371 stock market over the last two years went up 25% and then 24%, they weren't 00:48:53.371 --> 00:48:56.521 like high five and be like, oh my God, this is the greatest thing ever. 00:48:56.791 --> 00:48:59.791 They were just like, oh, this is naturally what happens, but that's not 00:49:00.001 --> 00:49:00.441 Louie: no, not 00:49:00.511 --> 00:49:01.021 Jon: happens. 00:49:01.261 --> 00:49:04.951 But it just goes to show our emotional response how we process things. 00:49:05.161 --> 00:49:09.541 We are so much more worried about losing things than gaining things. 00:49:09.541 --> 00:49:14.381 And that is, and it's been proven time and time again in behavioral economics. 00:49:14.381 --> 00:49:17.681 this is just how humans behave and it's very natural to be 00:49:17.681 --> 00:49:19.181 fearful in the circumstance. 00:49:19.231 --> 00:49:22.321 but that's just one of those things that you have to, you just have to 00:49:22.321 --> 00:49:26.611 once again reset what your expectations are and just what is also some type 00:49:26.611 --> 00:49:28.951 of normalcy within the stock market. 00:49:28.951 --> 00:49:31.351 So I know for people that have been investing for a long time. 00:49:31.606 --> 00:49:33.166 they tend to have this down a little bit better. 00:49:33.166 --> 00:49:36.436 For newer folks, not as much, but the longer you're investing, 00:49:36.436 --> 00:49:38.056 typically the more assets you have. 00:49:38.476 --> 00:49:43.696 So now when you lose 20% and you just lost 300 grand, that feels a lot different than 00:49:43.696 --> 00:49:48.136 if you're a new person and you lost three perc or three grand, you still lost 20%. 00:49:48.136 --> 00:49:50.296 But those numbers are massively 00:49:50.531 --> 00:49:52.571 Louie: One can make you feel a little bit sicker to your stomach. 00:49:52.786 --> 00:49:55.216 Jon: one can definitely make you feel sicker than the other. 00:49:55.216 --> 00:50:00.016 So that's just to bring, some context, once again for generally speaking, 00:50:00.046 --> 00:50:03.796 how much movement there is within the stock market within a given year. 00:50:03.856 --> 00:50:07.786 And just because it goes up or goes down is not a good indicator 00:50:07.786 --> 00:50:11.416 of, December 31st when we have this conversation where the stock 00:50:11.426 --> 00:50:11.576 Louie: was. 00:50:11.576 --> 00:50:12.536 The market up or down? 00:50:12.626 --> 00:50:12.866 Yeah. 00:50:12.866 --> 00:50:13.886 Was it up or down this year? 00:50:14.066 --> 00:50:14.756 Yeah, absolutely. 00:50:15.071 --> 00:50:15.311 Absolutely. 00:50:15.986 --> 00:50:19.436 Jon: All right, so let's just finish up really quickly with some kind of, some 00:50:19.436 --> 00:50:23.246 tangible strategies now that we've talked about what the stock market is all about, 00:50:23.396 --> 00:50:26.966 some of these volatility moves and just how they do happen and why they happen. 00:50:26.966 --> 00:50:29.966 Let's talk about like how to set yourself up for success moving 00:50:29.966 --> 00:50:31.646 forward if you haven't already had to. 00:50:31.946 --> 00:50:34.946 These are concepts that you could build into your investor policy 00:50:34.946 --> 00:50:39.296 statement as well in order to set yourself up for success moving forward. 00:50:39.371 --> 00:50:43.211 Louie: Yeah, we, so we, John and I, like we said before, we don't know 00:50:43.271 --> 00:50:46.661 if this is going to be the start of some really tough economic times. 00:50:47.111 --> 00:50:48.281 It might be, and it might not be. 00:50:48.281 --> 00:50:51.041 This could be a flash in the pan or this could be a, another great 00:50:51.041 --> 00:50:53.531 recession or a depression, I, who knows. 00:50:53.971 --> 00:50:57.061 but there are things you can do to make yourself more resilient if 00:50:57.061 --> 00:50:59.131 there is tough economic times ahead. 00:50:59.321 --> 00:51:01.961 these are something that we put together, just from reading some 00:51:01.961 --> 00:51:03.191 stuff and listening to other people. 00:51:03.191 --> 00:51:05.441 There's, this is not a Bible or a guaranteed way, but these 00:51:05.441 --> 00:51:08.561 are generally just good ideas whether times are tough or not. 00:51:08.801 --> 00:51:11.201 But if you can implement these in your life before times get tough, 00:51:11.201 --> 00:51:12.611 you will probably have a better time. 00:51:12.761 --> 00:51:15.431 When times do get tough and times will get tough. 00:51:15.461 --> 00:51:17.441 We do know that eventually times will get tough. 00:51:17.441 --> 00:51:19.331 if that happens now, hopefully you can implement these. 00:51:19.626 --> 00:51:20.316 before too long. 00:51:20.706 --> 00:51:23.646 Number one, John, is to build an emergency fund. 00:51:24.016 --> 00:51:26.536 we consider that a really important thing and we'll probably 00:51:26.536 --> 00:51:27.766 do a whole episode on that 00:51:27.781 --> 00:51:28.171 Jon: We will. 00:51:28.171 --> 00:51:28.411 Yep. 00:51:28.456 --> 00:51:28.606 Louie: We'll, yeah. 00:51:29.096 --> 00:51:32.436 but basically an emergency fund just, all it really means is having a pile 00:51:32.436 --> 00:51:35.666 of cash, so a pile of cash in your bank account that, man, that goes 00:51:35.666 --> 00:51:37.736 a long way in staving off disaster. 00:51:38.096 --> 00:51:41.306 and really three months, especially during tough economic times, three months 00:51:41.306 --> 00:51:44.696 is the bare minimum that you should have three months of living expenses. 00:51:44.846 --> 00:51:44.906 Yeah. 00:51:44.936 --> 00:51:47.036 So if you, let's just throw numbers out there. 00:51:47.036 --> 00:51:53.376 If you spend $5,000 a month, on your goods and services and mortgage and whatever 00:51:53.376 --> 00:51:55.506 else, that means you should have $15,000. 00:51:55.506 --> 00:51:58.896 A lot of people are probably like, oh no, that makes me feel nervous 00:51:58.896 --> 00:52:00.786 'cause I spend $10,000 a month. 00:52:00.886 --> 00:52:03.526 that means you should probably have $30,000 in cash. 00:52:03.856 --> 00:52:07.246 not invested, not in the s and p 500, even as much as we love 00:52:07.246 --> 00:52:10.426 that we're talking about cash, baby, you need to have this in a. 00:52:10.626 --> 00:52:14.526 Savings account and a bank account just sitting there doing nothing to stave 00:52:14.526 --> 00:52:16.566 off trouble during tough economic times. 00:52:16.591 --> 00:52:16.801 Jon: Yeah. 00:52:16.801 --> 00:52:18.421 It has to be readily accessible. 00:52:18.421 --> 00:52:22.171 They'll always talk about, the fancy word is liquidity, but you need to be 00:52:22.171 --> 00:52:26.851 able to access this today and not have to worry about taking a loss to sell it. 00:52:26.881 --> 00:52:28.051 that's the whole concept behind it. 00:52:28.051 --> 00:52:30.031 We don't, 'cause you could say the same thing for stocks. 00:52:30.031 --> 00:52:30.571 I'll just sell it. 00:52:30.571 --> 00:52:34.021 But if it's already down 30%, this is exactly what we're trying to prevent you 00:52:34.021 --> 00:52:36.181 from doing is having to sell at a loss. 00:52:36.211 --> 00:52:39.301 'cause you've got some, you've got that little piggy bank filled of 00:52:39.361 --> 00:52:43.531 money that you can stave off having to sell any of those assets at a loss. 00:52:43.531 --> 00:52:46.441 'cause the other thing is that generally speaking, the stock 00:52:46.441 --> 00:52:48.601 market tends to recover quickly too. 00:52:48.781 --> 00:52:48.841 Yeah. 00:52:48.841 --> 00:52:51.061 We're not talking about 10 years of depression. 00:52:51.221 --> 00:52:53.891 Where the stock market has not gone up in value for 10 years. 00:52:53.891 --> 00:52:53.951 Yeah. 00:52:54.161 --> 00:52:57.881 Like most of the time a lot of these recoveries there, are, these shocks 00:52:57.881 --> 00:53:01.691 are happening more frequently, but the recovery is also expediting. 00:53:01.921 --> 00:53:02.401 As well. 00:53:02.401 --> 00:53:04.891 So this is just something to keep you comfortable. 00:53:04.941 --> 00:53:08.601 God forbid, normally our profession is a pretty safe and secure 00:53:08.601 --> 00:53:12.021 profession as far as job loss, not all lay lot layoffs going on. 00:53:12.021 --> 00:53:14.961 And that's something from the union aspect, that would be the very last 00:53:14.961 --> 00:53:16.161 thing that we would ever touch. 00:53:16.341 --> 00:53:19.851 Before we would take pay cuts, we would do demotions, just like we did before. 00:53:20.091 --> 00:53:24.171 We didn't lay off Uni Ford members when we had our big financial crisis here. 00:53:24.171 --> 00:53:25.521 So that's just something though. 00:53:25.521 --> 00:53:28.971 But it is super important 'cause we do get asked this, it has to be something that 00:53:28.971 --> 00:53:34.461 is accessible today and you cannot take it out and have a, have some kind of loss. 00:53:34.701 --> 00:53:36.291 Anything that's associated with that. 00:53:36.291 --> 00:53:39.021 that's how an emergency fund should be funded 00:53:39.166 --> 00:53:41.866 Louie: more to come on that, but in general that, that's a number one 00:53:42.016 --> 00:53:44.956 first step to be resilient during tough economic times is have that 00:53:44.956 --> 00:53:47.476 contingency fund or that emergency fund, whatever you wanna call it. 00:53:48.166 --> 00:53:48.496 And number. 00:53:48.706 --> 00:53:48.946 Go ahead. 00:53:49.066 --> 00:53:49.306 Jon: No. 00:53:49.306 --> 00:53:49.516 Yeah. 00:53:49.516 --> 00:53:51.646 Next thing is be flexible, right? 00:53:51.706 --> 00:53:55.286 And this is, once again, in our profession we have a pretty steady paycheck. 00:53:55.286 --> 00:53:58.196 We know what we're gonna be making and that really has not adjusted. 00:53:58.196 --> 00:54:01.586 But if we do have listeners out there, or members out there that, 00:54:01.746 --> 00:54:04.866 their spouses or their significant others or whatever are being affected 00:54:04.866 --> 00:54:08.286 because they are part of the federal government that's been downsized, or 00:54:08.286 --> 00:54:11.166 even part of the corporate sector that is downsizing or whatever, and they've 00:54:11.166 --> 00:54:15.196 got a job loss, this is just something, and we all naturally do this, right? 00:54:15.196 --> 00:54:16.336 We just tighten our belts. 00:54:16.456 --> 00:54:19.486 So we start thinking about we were planning on going on this vacation, but 00:54:19.486 --> 00:54:23.036 because of what has happened, and maybe we don't have that emergency fund, we're 00:54:23.036 --> 00:54:26.696 just gonna forego that vacation this year, or we're gonna do a staycation or 00:54:26.696 --> 00:54:31.196 something else that is more in line with what your budget and what your finances 00:54:31.206 --> 00:54:33.126 can basically handle at that point. 00:54:33.126 --> 00:54:36.506 So I think a lot of these things are intuitive and I know a lot of our 00:54:36.566 --> 00:54:38.186 members and listeners have already. 00:54:38.251 --> 00:54:39.481 Undergone some of these things. 00:54:39.481 --> 00:54:43.621 So it's just very natural that when when there is some uncertainty or there is a 00:54:43.621 --> 00:54:48.301 job loss or some type of income is not coming in, we just reset what's important, 00:54:48.301 --> 00:54:52.051 what are our priorities, and then just start to, constrict a little bit on, 00:54:52.101 --> 00:54:53.781 on what your expenditures are gonna be. 00:54:54.111 --> 00:54:54.351 Alright. 00:54:54.351 --> 00:54:55.521 What about number three, Louie? 00:54:55.591 --> 00:54:58.711 Louie: So the number three way, number three thing that you can do to be 00:54:58.711 --> 00:55:01.741 more resilient is to pay off debt. 00:55:01.831 --> 00:55:02.911 To be debt free. 00:55:02.921 --> 00:55:05.831 Preferably, and we get that it's hard. 00:55:05.831 --> 00:55:07.871 We're gonna also do another, we're gonna do a debt episode 00:55:07.871 --> 00:55:08.951 where we talk more about that. 00:55:09.311 --> 00:55:14.021 But reduce and eliminate debt is just huge to be flexible. 00:55:14.021 --> 00:55:18.101 If you wanna talk about being flexible in tough economic times, basically what 00:55:18.101 --> 00:55:19.751 debt is it's a weight around your neck. 00:55:19.751 --> 00:55:21.791 It's something, it's a burden that you have to carry, right? 00:55:21.791 --> 00:55:24.071 Everyone talks about debt burdens or the burden of debt. 00:55:24.431 --> 00:55:28.911 So how flexible and, nimble can you be during tough economic times? 00:55:29.091 --> 00:55:32.541 If you have two car loans and a couple outstanding credit card balances that 00:55:32.541 --> 00:55:36.231 you need to pay off, and a personal loan and a HELOC and all these things that 00:55:36.231 --> 00:55:37.641 you're making payments on, you can't. 00:55:37.671 --> 00:55:42.821 if your pay gets cut and your spouse loses their job, you still have those, you still 00:55:42.821 --> 00:55:47.381 have that debt that you have to pay off and it makes you, unable to be flexible. 00:55:47.381 --> 00:55:51.501 So paying off debt is massive, not just during, tough economic times, 00:55:51.501 --> 00:55:52.791 but during good economic times. 00:55:52.821 --> 00:55:55.221 We'll talk more about that in a future episode, but we're telling 00:55:55.221 --> 00:55:58.371 you guys right now that if you have. 00:55:58.681 --> 00:56:04.651 Money going to debt repayment, then that is money that you cannot use for 00:56:04.651 --> 00:56:08.491 your emergency fund or for investing, for buying stocks when they're on sale. 00:56:08.731 --> 00:56:09.781 It just really hinders you. 00:56:10.031 --> 00:56:11.771 Jon: Yeah, no, that's well said. 00:56:11.771 --> 00:56:15.021 And that's something that we all kind of struggle with and to me debt just 00:56:15.021 --> 00:56:18.531 equals more risk and you're just on the hook for all of these payments 00:56:18.531 --> 00:56:20.031 and it's just, it's more risky 00:56:20.051 --> 00:56:20.291 Louie: behavior. 00:56:20.411 --> 00:56:23.831 Jon: if we have a lot of people that are more risk averse and they don't wanna take 00:56:23.831 --> 00:56:27.841 that, then obviously we, pay with cash or however we fund these things or keep 00:56:27.841 --> 00:56:30.291 our debt, limit as, as low as possible. 00:56:30.291 --> 00:56:31.911 And when we do get some windfalls. 00:56:32.066 --> 00:56:33.926 Pay that off as soon as possible. 00:56:33.926 --> 00:56:37.916 I've never once again had anyone since I've been doing this regret, like paying 00:56:37.916 --> 00:56:42.946 off their mortgage or paying off their car or, having to fund, paying for their kids' 00:56:42.946 --> 00:56:46.066 college with cash or other investments and not having to take on more loans. 00:56:46.426 --> 00:56:49.576 it is a certain peace of mind that like you can put a price on it 'cause we 00:56:49.576 --> 00:56:51.241 know what interest costs it ends up. 00:56:51.541 --> 00:56:54.331 But, from a, once again, from a behavioral, standpoint, that level 00:56:54.331 --> 00:56:58.501 of freedom that it now bestows upon you, it is priceless to 00:56:58.556 --> 00:56:58.991 Louie: lot priceless. 00:56:59.251 --> 00:57:00.451 Jon: priceless to a lot of people 00:57:00.626 --> 00:57:01.016 Louie: For sure. 00:57:01.141 --> 00:57:03.751 Jon: So how do we make yourself a little bit more resilient? 00:57:03.751 --> 00:57:07.141 And some of this is, you don't really know until you get into these situations. 00:57:07.391 --> 00:57:10.481 that is understanding what your risk tolerance is. 00:57:10.511 --> 00:57:13.181 And it's very easy to sit there and be like, oh man, I'm cool. 00:57:13.301 --> 00:57:16.571 I'm aggressive, I'm a firefighter, I'm Type A, I take risks every 00:57:16.571 --> 00:57:18.431 day, all of these things. 00:57:18.431 --> 00:57:18.761 But. 00:57:19.131 --> 00:57:22.461 There's a difference between risky profession or risky behaviors within 00:57:22.461 --> 00:57:26.151 our profession and what we do on a daily basis versus financial risk. 00:57:26.151 --> 00:57:29.061 And what you're willing, and this is really what's testing a 00:57:29.061 --> 00:57:32.091 lot of people's stomachs, quite frankly, for their level of risk. 00:57:32.091 --> 00:57:35.721 And I know a lot of people, once again, because the stock market just went up 00:57:35.721 --> 00:57:38.721 almost 50% over the last two years, they're like, man, this is great. 00:57:38.811 --> 00:57:39.471 I'm loving it. 00:57:39.951 --> 00:57:41.031 And then it just reset. 00:57:41.031 --> 00:57:43.881 And now they're like, I was planning on having all that money and that projected 00:57:43.881 --> 00:57:48.561 into my retiring in two years, and now 30% of it just got wiped away, so 00:57:48.561 --> 00:57:49.731 now I gotta add another two or three. 00:57:49.731 --> 00:57:50.781 I did not plan for that. 00:57:51.041 --> 00:57:53.681 with the ups as always gonna come the downs. 00:57:53.711 --> 00:57:56.951 And you just have to understand what your level of that is. 00:57:56.961 --> 00:58:00.351 and if it, if where you're currently putting your money is 00:58:00.351 --> 00:58:02.991 not letting you sleep at night, you're taking on too much risk. 00:58:02.991 --> 00:58:04.461 there's ways to prevent against that. 00:58:04.461 --> 00:58:10.301 There are safer assets out there besides stocks and it's, it's a time to reconsider 00:58:10.311 --> 00:58:14.116 what your asset allocation looks like, and maybe be a little bit more conservative. 00:58:14.161 --> 00:58:15.301 Louie: I think you're right John. 00:58:15.301 --> 00:58:18.301 You gotta know your risk tolerance and then you gotta build your portfolio, 00:58:18.301 --> 00:58:22.381 build your investment portfolio to reflect that risk tolerance. 00:58:22.381 --> 00:58:26.971 So having a diversified portfolio, in terms of your index funds and bonds, 00:58:26.971 --> 00:58:28.711 if you're, especially if you're getting closer to your retirement, having 00:58:28.711 --> 00:58:30.721 some bond funds are really important. 00:58:30.721 --> 00:58:34.271 International index funds are really important too, because they spread 00:58:34.271 --> 00:58:35.711 that risk out over more companies. 00:58:36.021 --> 00:58:38.331 and that's all, we'll address those another episodes too. 00:58:38.331 --> 00:58:40.761 We'll, we get to do a lot of those things where we dig down 00:58:40.761 --> 00:58:42.721 into more of those, options. 00:58:43.021 --> 00:58:46.561 But, having that investor policy statement that we talked about, managing 00:58:46.561 --> 00:58:48.611 your risk that way, will go a huge way. 00:58:48.671 --> 00:58:49.691 And here's the other cool thing. 00:58:49.691 --> 00:58:51.881 I'll just say this 'cause we would be remiss not to mention it. 00:58:52.811 --> 00:58:55.761 The fact that, if you're listening to this, you're probably a firefighter 00:58:55.971 --> 00:58:58.221 and the chances are you have a pension. 00:58:58.461 --> 00:59:02.661 That is a huge way that you've already diversified your risk. 00:59:02.941 --> 00:59:04.141 because think about it this way. 00:59:04.511 --> 00:59:07.901 if you retire this year, let's say, and the market's down 20% or 00:59:07.901 --> 00:59:11.411 10% or whatever it might be, you are still gonna get your pension 00:59:11.411 --> 00:59:12.971 check because it's defined benefit. 00:59:12.971 --> 00:59:15.671 You have a pension coming in that you can rely on, and that means 00:59:15.671 --> 00:59:20.351 you don't necessarily have to sell your own investments at a low price 00:59:20.501 --> 00:59:21.941 in order to fund your retirement. 00:59:22.121 --> 00:59:26.081 So you have given yourself this annuity that will pay you a consistent 00:59:26.081 --> 00:59:28.661 outflow during tough economic times. 00:59:28.721 --> 00:59:31.571 That is an awesome thing that most people don't have. 00:59:31.631 --> 00:59:34.661 So this should be the part where you pat yourself in the back and 00:59:34.661 --> 00:59:38.571 congratulate yourself for having a pension, because that helps, that will 00:59:38.571 --> 00:59:42.561 help you in tough economic times because you've diversified your risk across, 00:59:42.641 --> 00:59:44.111 an investment class, so to speak. 00:59:44.201 --> 00:59:44.501 Jon: Yeah. 00:59:44.501 --> 00:59:47.321 And the people that are reaching out to me and they're just questions 00:59:47.321 --> 00:59:51.241 or concerns or wants, want my take, they're pretty much all exclusively 00:59:51.241 --> 00:59:52.441 more or less money purchased. 00:59:53.086 --> 00:59:53.236 Louie: Yeah. 00:59:53.501 --> 00:59:56.531 Jon: because they, all of their money is tied up in the stock market to 00:59:56.531 --> 01:00:00.071 some degree or some type of asset allocation, and they don't have. 01:00:00.381 --> 01:00:06.321 That, that safety net, that FPPA for us, provides and just, they have professional 01:00:06.321 --> 01:00:08.151 money managers that are managing that. 01:00:08.151 --> 01:00:09.111 They're managing risk. 01:00:09.111 --> 01:00:11.151 That's what they're there to do. 01:00:11.281 --> 01:00:14.671 so they're doing all the heavy lifting rather than have the, to have that 01:00:14.671 --> 01:00:16.381 be the responsibility on the member. 01:00:16.381 --> 01:00:19.201 And that, and times like this, there's a lot of people that 01:00:19.201 --> 01:00:21.661 are getting ready to retire and they're defined benefit and they're 01:00:21.661 --> 01:00:23.311 honestly not really thinking twice. 01:00:23.371 --> 01:00:27.031 They feel pretty confident in that they're gonna continue to get their 01:00:27.031 --> 01:00:29.071 percentage, that they were owed to them. 01:00:29.071 --> 01:00:30.031 So very good. 01:00:30.121 --> 01:00:34.491 And the last, but not least, and this goes for everything, not just, financial, 01:00:34.491 --> 01:00:36.831 but it's, get and stay healthy. 01:00:36.941 --> 01:00:38.651 Louie: Oh man, this is my favorite one actually. 01:00:38.681 --> 01:00:38.771 Yeah. 01:00:38.861 --> 01:00:42.281 I feel like being mentally and physically and spiritually healthy 01:00:42.821 --> 01:00:45.971 goes a long way, in being able to get through tough economic times. 01:00:45.971 --> 01:00:47.531 Like this might be the most important one. 01:00:47.531 --> 01:00:48.881 Maybe we should have said this one first. 01:00:48.881 --> 01:00:49.271 Jon: Yeah. 01:00:49.391 --> 01:00:49.631 Yep. 01:00:49.631 --> 01:00:52.211 And it's one that ultimately you have the most control over. 01:00:52.211 --> 01:00:52.271 Yeah. 01:00:52.541 --> 01:00:55.181 Quite frankly, like Lou and I just talked about, we had got zero 01:00:55.181 --> 01:00:57.761 control over the stock market, which ones we're investing in. 01:00:57.761 --> 01:01:00.371 It just we're assuming over time it's gonna go up. 01:01:00.561 --> 01:01:04.341 but this is one that you can take the accountability and how you're eating, 01:01:04.521 --> 01:01:07.671 how you're working out, what you're doing on your days off, how much 01:01:07.671 --> 01:01:10.671 sleep you're getting, all these other things on your day off like that is 01:01:10.671 --> 01:01:14.391 something that you are the controller of your destiny and something that you 01:01:14.391 --> 01:01:16.591 can really, set you up for success. 01:01:16.591 --> 01:01:20.271 'cause our hope is that you retire at a reasonable age and that you get to 01:01:20.271 --> 01:01:22.461 enjoy 30 or 40 years in retirement. 01:01:22.801 --> 01:01:23.611 and all those other things. 01:01:23.611 --> 01:01:25.921 We don't wanna put away all this money just to have. 01:01:25.991 --> 01:01:29.871 You die early, and not get to have some of the benefits of the 01:01:29.871 --> 01:01:31.371 fruits of your labor, so to speak. 01:01:31.371 --> 01:01:33.561 So those are just some things to consider. 01:01:33.561 --> 01:01:37.401 So we're, running right at about an hour here, but, as always, man, 01:01:37.581 --> 01:01:38.991 it doesn't matter what we plan for. 01:01:38.991 --> 01:01:42.291 Louis and I, we're pretty much gonna give you an hour every month. 01:01:42.291 --> 01:01:46.561 So hopefully this was helpful for, some context first, and first and foremost, 01:01:46.921 --> 01:01:50.431 maybe just increase our knowledge of the vocabulary, especially when it comes 01:01:50.431 --> 01:01:52.741 to economic times and uncertainties. 01:01:53.021 --> 01:01:56.651 and really just give you a roadmap on ways to help navigate this. 01:01:56.651 --> 01:01:58.841 And just once again, not to. 01:01:59.341 --> 01:02:02.941 Not to downplay just the seriousness of what is going on and how people feel. 01:02:02.941 --> 01:02:05.431 You never wanna downplay people's reactions and 01:02:05.431 --> 01:02:07.021 emotions 'cause they are real. 01:02:07.241 --> 01:02:11.491 but it really is to just reset the compass and just get back to why are 01:02:11.491 --> 01:02:12.931 you investing for the first place? 01:02:12.931 --> 01:02:13.861 What's your goals? 01:02:14.011 --> 01:02:15.151 How are you gonna get there? 01:02:15.341 --> 01:02:18.671 and really just to tune out some of the noise 'cause it's real noisy out 01:02:18.671 --> 01:02:18.791 Louie: there. 01:02:18.901 --> 01:02:19.501 Absolutely. 01:02:19.921 --> 01:02:21.181 Got big things in the podcast. 01:02:21.181 --> 01:02:22.771 We got a special guest coming on next month. 01:02:22.771 --> 01:02:26.471 That'll be really cool for a lot of people to hear and, get some insight from. 01:02:26.741 --> 01:02:27.971 So we're doing big things. 01:02:27.971 --> 01:02:32.091 We want to thank you guys for being with us, for, listening and supporting us. 01:02:32.181 --> 01:02:32.871 As always. 01:02:32.871 --> 01:02:35.152 And I know we say this every month because that's because we truly care. 01:02:35.556 --> 01:02:38.751 If you guys have any feedback or comments, if you guys have any questions or things 01:02:38.751 --> 01:02:43.141 that you think might, be beneficial for us to address on the podcast, you can send an 01:02:43.141 --> 01:02:46.741 email to ask Fiscal firehouse@gmail.com. 01:02:46.981 --> 01:02:48.631 You can also find us as at Instagram. 01:02:48.631 --> 01:02:52.861 Our handle is fiscal firehouse, and you can drop us a line on there too. 01:02:53.131 --> 01:02:55.651 John and I do pay attention to all those things that you guys. 01:02:55.651 --> 01:02:56.186 Tell us. 01:02:56.456 --> 01:02:59.366 And then I'll also say this, we really haven't asked this directly, but if you 01:02:59.366 --> 01:03:03.456 guys can, leave us a review, five star review, if you really like the episode 01:03:03.696 --> 01:03:07.056 and follow us, what on whatever podcast player you're listening to, whether 01:03:07.056 --> 01:03:11.766 it's Spotify or Apple or whatever it is, that would really help us too. 01:03:11.766 --> 01:03:13.236 That kind of helps get the word out there. 01:03:13.506 --> 01:03:15.936 And then probably the most important thing is share this with a friend. 01:03:15.936 --> 01:03:20.116 If you have someone who is a firefighter, whether they're with another department 01:03:20.116 --> 01:03:23.986 or even outside of the state of Colorado, a lot of this stuff is very practical 01:03:23.986 --> 01:03:27.196 and can benefit a lot of firefighters who are in similar situations. 01:03:27.346 --> 01:03:29.596 So we would ask that you share it and just let 'em know about 01:03:29.596 --> 01:03:30.676 it too, just to bring awareness 01:03:30.756 --> 01:03:30.836 Jon: it. 01:03:30.841 --> 01:03:32.421 Yeah, that's a super great point. 01:03:32.421 --> 01:03:36.501 And we're not trying to, I guess we are to a level self-promoting, but we do see 01:03:36.501 --> 01:03:38.241 and understand like the reach of this. 01:03:38.241 --> 01:03:42.201 And we've had a lot of good feedback and I'll give an example is someone, 01:03:42.481 --> 01:03:46.141 found us, they were actually listening to a different financial podcast, 01:03:46.441 --> 01:03:50.221 but I don't know if it's based on their profile or whatever, but after 01:03:50.221 --> 01:03:54.331 they got done listening to that, it actually recommended our podcast. 01:03:54.631 --> 01:03:57.001 And I think a lot of that just has to do with the 01:03:57.046 --> 01:03:57.946 Louie: algorithms Yep. 01:03:58.171 --> 01:04:00.541 Jon: behind how some of these, platforms use it. 01:04:00.541 --> 01:04:02.191 So those reviews do help. 01:04:02.461 --> 01:04:05.901 And, mentioning anything firefighter related I think just ties it back to us 01:04:05.901 --> 01:04:07.311 and what we're trying to accomplish here. 01:04:07.311 --> 01:04:10.551 So we've gotten a lot of feedback and I've received feedback outside of the 01:04:10.551 --> 01:04:13.981 state of Colorado, so I know that we're getting listened to outside of there. 01:04:13.981 --> 01:04:15.901 And if you guys have noticed over the last. 01:04:15.916 --> 01:04:18.286 I'd probably call it three or four episodes. 01:04:18.286 --> 01:04:23.086 We really have tried to tailor it to a message more broad rather than just, 01:04:23.086 --> 01:04:26.916 west Metro specifically, or even just the state of Colorado, but just broadening out 01:04:26.916 --> 01:04:28.666 there, just, firefighters specifically. 01:04:28.666 --> 01:04:32.476 A lot of this stuff will play out whether you work here or you work in Texas or 01:04:32.476 --> 01:04:34.246 New York, it really doesn't matter. 01:04:34.246 --> 01:04:37.536 So please continue to share the, the message out there. 01:04:37.536 --> 01:04:40.086 And, we really appreciate what you guys are doing out there for us. 01:04:40.296 --> 01:04:43.936 A lot of, personal gratification that I have received and I know Louie has. 01:04:43.936 --> 01:04:46.776 And, there's nothing that makes you feel better when, if it just 01:04:46.776 --> 01:04:48.066 moves the needle a little bit. 01:04:48.066 --> 01:04:52.356 And if we can just get a couple people to make some of these changes earlier, man, 01:04:52.356 --> 01:04:53.706 their future's gonna look really bright. 01:04:53.706 --> 01:04:55.386 And that's something that I value. 01:04:55.386 --> 01:04:55.776 And I know 01:04:56.046 --> 01:04:56.706 Louie: that's why we're doing it. 01:04:56.886 --> 01:04:57.666 That's why we're doing it. 01:04:57.726 --> 01:04:57.966 Jon: Yep. 01:04:57.966 --> 01:04:59.046 We're not getting paid. 01:04:59.166 --> 01:05:00.936 We're not looking at starting a business. 01:05:01.096 --> 01:05:03.226 This is truly out of our love. 01:05:03.296 --> 01:05:05.666 not only for each other but our organization, but just 01:05:05.666 --> 01:05:07.156 the, fire service in a whole. 01:05:07.156 --> 01:05:08.116 really passionate about that. 01:05:08.116 --> 01:05:09.976 But as always, Louis, you brought it today. 01:05:10.186 --> 01:05:10.726 Some good 01:05:10.806 --> 01:05:11.406 Louie: did you man. 01:05:11.716 --> 01:05:12.016 Jon: Yep. 01:05:12.066 --> 01:05:14.526 without further ado, stay safe and keep saving. 01:05:14.756 --> 01:05:15.236 Louie: Keep saving. 01:05:15.426 --> 01:05:16.176 Jon: All right, we'll see you guys 01:05:18.398 --> 01:05:20.948 Disclosure: The Fiscal Firehouse Podcast is a podcast curated 01:05:20.948 --> 01:05:23.468 specifically for local 1309 members. 01:05:23.588 --> 01:05:27.278 This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only, 01:05:27.488 --> 01:05:30.398 and should not be construed as professional financial advice. 01:05:30.548 --> 01:05:33.278 Should you need professional advice, consult a licensed 01:05:33.398 --> 01:05:35.798 financial advisor or tax advisor. 01:05:35.978 --> 01:05:39.848 The opinions of John Beatty, Louis Barilla and their castmates are 01:05:39.848 --> 01:05:43.328 solely their own, and don't reflect that of West Metro Fire Rescue.