25 or 50? What the Fed will do, how markets could react, and our new recession indicators

As the much-anticipated start of Fed easing approaches, the debate has centred on whether Powell & Co. will opt for a 25 or a 50-basis point rate cut. 

On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses the rationale for a larger move, but also explains why we’re expecting this easing cycle to begin with a 25bps move. 

Senior Markets Economist James Reilly is also on the show to talk about our new interactive dashboard which crunches more than six decades of Fed and market data to give investors a clear guide to how major asset prices will respond to monetary easing. 

Finally, Simon MacAdam, our Deputy Chief Global Economist, discusses our Economic Momentum Indicators, which give investors single, comparable data points showing whether DM economies are facing recession.  He tells Senior Global Economist Ariane Curtis what the indicators are saying about the growth risks faced by the US and Germany.

Analysis and Data Dashboards referenced in this episode:

Report: Rate cuts and asset returns
Dashboard: Rate Cuts & Asset Returns
Report: How to gauge recession risk in DMs
Dashboard: Composite Economic Momentum Indicators

What is Capital Economics Weekly Briefing?

Capital Economics, a world leading provider of macroeconomic insight, presents The Weekly Briefing – the show with all you need to know about what's happening in the global economy and markets. From the Fed's next move to China's slowdown to the global housing bust, each week, our team of economists take apart the big economic and market stories and highlight the issues that investors should be paying more attention to.