In this episode, we sit down with Luke Gromen to unpack the U.S. fiscal landscape, exploring the growing strain of true interest expense and why the world may be entering a liquidity acceleration phase. Luke highlights some of the most crowded and least crowded trades in the market today and explains why gold miners are taking on a new role, while commodity stocks resemble bonds. We also discuss the potential release valves of gold, oil, and bitcoin. Luke provides insights into the shifting dynamics of physical versus paper assets, the repricing of bonds and hard assets, and bitcoin’s potential place in central bank reserves. Additionally, we cover China’s latest economic moves, the ongoing global debt bubble, and the potential impact of the U.S. Presidential election.
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TIMESTAMPS:
01:06 - The U.S. fiscal situation and 'true interest expense'
02:49 - U.S. fiscal tightening and liquidity needs
04:03 - 'America doesn’t get to do collectively stupid stuff with borrowed money forever'
07:13 - Most crowded and least crowded trades today
08:39 - 'Gold miners are the new commodity stocks, commodity stocks are the new bonds'
12:07 - The release valve: gold, oil, and maybe bitcoin
14:21 - Bitcoin miners as the new gold miners?
16:06 - The importance of physical versus paper assets
20:10 - The accelerating repricing event in bonds and hard assets
23:49 - How bitcoin and gold fit into the reserve asset narrative
33:14 - Will central banks eventually hold bitcoin?
35:00 - China’s aggressive stimulus and what it means for global markets
39:00 - The global sovereign debt bubble and the U.S. deficit
40:21 - U.S. Presidential election and fiscal largesse
41:59 - Repricing of gold and bitcoin
49:10 - What most bitcoiners disagree with Luke on
50:24 - The biggest risks to bitcoin and gold
55:00 - Outro and where to find more of Luke’s work
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