Strategic Positioning: Week 27 Midweek Update

Wednesday, July 1, 2026. WEEK 27 MIDWEEK UPDATE. WTI crude oil trading ~$69.98-$70.42. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report released today (covering week ending Jun 26, 2026). CRUDE OIL INVENTORY UPDATE: Latest reported week ending Jun 19, 2026 crude fell 6.088M barrels to 412.1M barrels (7% below 5-year avg). Cushing, Oklahoma stocks down over 1M barrels in latest week. BROADER CONTEXT: OECD stocks heading toward multi-decade lows driven by Iran-related conflict and Strait of Hormuz issues. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook Jun 2026 forecasts 6.3M bpd global inventory declines in Q2 2026. Brent prices expected ~$105/bbl Jun/Jul before potential easing later in year. REFINERY ACTIVITY: Runs and utilization high to offset supply gaps, contributing to inventory draws. GASOLINE AND DISTILLATE STOCKS: Gasoline +2.064M barrels, distillates +3.064M barrels (contrasting crude draw; refineries running hard to produce products). NATURAL GAS: No EIA storage report today (releases occur Thursdays 10:30 a.m. ET). Next release Jul 2, 2026 (covering week ending Jun 26, 2026). Latest storage data week ending Jun 19, 2026: Working gas in storage 2,835 Bcf. Net injection +76 Bcf from prior week. Year-over-year 49 Bcf below same week 2025. Five-year average 152 Bcf above average. THE SETUP: Crude inventories falling, multi-decade lows, support for higher prices, but WTI trading $70, consolidation continues. Support $67.93, resistance $71.84. Watch for EIA data surprises. Doha talks ongoing. Gas storage building, injections strong, accumulation zone intact. WEEK 27 THESIS: Crude fade trade complete, mean reversion delivered, geopolitical premium fading but Hormuz risk remains. Short any bounces above $72. Target $65-$67. Gas storage building, injections strong, accumulation intact. Target $4.00+. Trade the data, not the headlines.

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