This week we’re trying something completely new as we build our first-ever Big 12 Kalshi portfolio. Instead of making traditional against-the-spread picks, we’re approaching the season like investors, looking for undervalued teams whose championship contracts could increase in value as the year unfolds.
We explain why prediction markets create a different way of thinking about college football. Rather than simply picking who we believe will win the Big 12, we’re looking for opportunities to buy low and potentially sell high before the conference championship game ever arrives. That leads us into a discussion of why we intentionally passed on preseason favorite Texas Tech, despite believing the Red Raiders are one of the league’s strongest teams.
We break down every position in our portfolio, including BYU, Utah, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Baylor, Arizona, and Houston, discussing what each team needs to do for its contract value to rise during the season. Along the way we debate quarterback situations, key early-season games, conference parity, and why the unpredictable nature of the Big 12 makes this conference uniquely suited for this strategy.
Because this is our first experience managing a prediction-market portfolio, we’re learning in real time. Throughout the season we’ll revisit every position, discuss when to hold, when to sell, and whether our investment approach actually works. Join us as we track the market, follow the conference race, and see whether buying low in the Big 12 turns into a profitable season.