Freight analyst ≠ data analyst. In this deep dive, Chadd Olesen, co-founder & CEO of AVRL, explains why averages lie, how “composition scoring” beats lane-by-lane thinking, and what it really takes to make automated spot bidding profitable at scale. We get tactical on separating cost from margin, building region-first strategies, measuring MAPE, and why speed to quote (sub-second!) wins planners’ attention. We also talk participation rules, when not to bid, and how to use routing-guide gaps to win awards.
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- Why averages are inflated (incumbents & core lanes) and how to price below “market” without racing to the bottom.
- Region > lane: composition scoring by market area, factoring deadhead, facility effects, and lead time.
- Cost vs. margin separation: modeling projected carrier cost at pick time, then layering margin—no black boxes.
- Automation that actually makes money: who should own it (pricing, not ops), and the cultural buy-in required.
- Speed as strategy: getting under 1s end-to-end to rank first in planners’ queues (Blue Yonder/API timeout realities).
- Participation rules: how 70–80% “respond/decide” mandates change bidding strategy—and when to opt out.
- Turning data into awards: using routing-guide gap analytics to win net-new freight.
Time-stamped highlights
- 00:01:02 — Chadd’s path from speaking at Walmart events to early enterprise 3PL customers; AVRL’s pivot to pricing.
- 00:06:09 — Elizabeth, NJ → Chicago vs. nearby Freehold: why two “identical” rates behave differently.
- 00:11:03 — How AVRL models probability of coverage by region and separates projected cost from margin.
- 00:17:06 — Who should own automated spot bidding (hint: your pricing org), and why MAPE matters.
- 00:20:00 — Market Intelligence Team: rebuilding rating engines, parallelizing data pulls, and getting sub-second.
- 00:24:45 — The real upside: 100% participation, routing-guide visibility, and data-led award wins.
- 00:29:30 — Avoiding nukes: why selective participation beats bidding “everything.”
- 00:33:55 — Benchmarks (DAT/Greenscreens): why people blame the data when they’re using it wrong.
Links & references
- AVRL homepage (company info & “18 companies per year” model). (avrl.io)
- Transport Topics on AI & optimization (AVRL’s monthly transactional volume quote). (TT News)
- Additional long-form interviews featuring Chadd & AVRL’s approach. (The Logistics of Logistics)
Guest
What is The Freight Show?
The Freight Show brings stories of freight and logistics leaders who’ve shaped the industry. Through in-depth conversations, we explore their journeys, the challenges they’ve overcome, and the insights that have driven their success. Each episode uncovers the lessons, strategies, and wisdom of these freight leaders.