EMD102 - Strategic Positioning: Week Four

Monday, January 19, 2026 — Strategic Positioning. Week four of 2026. WTI $59.44 (+0.4%), Brent ~$63. Post-geopolitical stabilization. Goldman and EIA forecast Brent $56, WTI $52 for 2026. IEA warns of super-glut. Nat gas $3.12, storage 3,185 Bcf (+106 vs 5yr). Cold snap Jan 18-20 = buy zone. Decoupling continues.

Show Notes

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Monday, January 19, 2026 — Strategic Positioning. Week four of 2026. **CRUDE OIL:** WTI at $59.44, up 0.4%. Brent hovering near $63. Post-geopolitical spike stabilization. Last week's Iran fears faded. Venezuela back online. Surplus thesis intact. OPEC+ stuck between defending price floors and volume strategy. Most forecasts agree on surplus conditions 2026. IEA warning of possible super-glut if OPEC+ and rivals keep adding supply. Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent $56, WTI $52 for 2026 average. EIA same: Brent $56, WTI $52. We're trading above forecasts—mean reversion coming. **NATURAL GAS:** Henry Hub at $3.12, down from $3.16 Friday. Storage at 3,185 Bcf, 106 Bcf above 5-year average. Draw last week only 71 Bcf vs 146 Bcf 5-year average—warm weather killed demand. Europe storage 57-58% full vs 70% seasonal norm—bullish US LNG exports. Cold snap hitting now through Jan 20. This is the buy zone. Weather dips are entries, not exits. **CATALYST WATCH:** MLK Day today—markets closed. IEA Oil Market Report Jan 21. EIA Petroleum Status Jan 22. Cold snap Jan 18-20 peak. **BOTTOM LINE:** Crude range-bound, surplus looms. Gas weather dip loaded. Decoupling continues. **FINAL WORD:** Energy project needs capital? [e-mail]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Tuesday: Technicals.

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