Ocala Real Estate & Horse Farms

Ocala Real Estate & Horse Farms
Visit: Horse Farms Forever
Visit: Billy Woods for Sheriff Endorsed by Senator Rick Scott
Visit: Marion County Sheriff's Office


Sponsored by: Truesdell Wealth, Inc.


Summary

Drudge, Cape Coral Real Estate, Ocala Metro Real Estate, Creeks and Stones, Hwy 200 Two Lane Road, DR Horton, The Villages, Sumter County 466, Marion County 475, Spanish Springs, Leesburg, Lady Lake, Wildwood, Clermont, Boomer Retirees Phase Two, Golf Cart, Amenities, Community Facility, Rule of 72, Rule of 144, Builder Incentives, New Homes, Corporate Ownership of Single Family Homes, Beach Community Insurance, Property Casualty Rates, Buying Down Interest Rate, Local Builders Pushed Out, Village News, Snowbirds, Rural Living, Farms, Trucks, TMZ, Yankeetown, Inglis, Crystal River, Brownwood, Sumter Landing, Billionaires in Marion County, Sheriff Billy Woods, HorseFarmsForever.com, Horse Farms For Ever, Development, Carter's Liver Pills, Carter's Peanuts, Jimmy Carter, Retiree Inflation, First Ten Years of Retirement, Inflation, $100,000 today 19 years later $33,000, Minimum Wage California $20 per Hour, Florida Minimum Wage, $15 Minimum Wage, President Biden, Between Now and the Election, County Commissioners as Realtors, China Unemployment, China Crime, China Flooding, Russia Flooding, Stupid News Headlines, Click Bait,

Unedited Transcription:

SPEAKERS
Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF, Paul Truesdell, II

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  00:00
It is rather amazing how, a few months, six months at the most, has dramatically changed the housing market here in the Ocala metropolitan area. Yeah, the

Paul Truesdell, II  00:11
number of sales and the pricing and everything is, I would say it's down a little bit, but it's not as tremendous as some other places in the state. Just discussing this interesting article about how places like I believe Cape Coral. article said that year over year, the prices are up 51%. And people are shocked that sales are down some dramatic number and it's taking what is it a 31 more days to sell a house than last year? Oh, and prices are up 51% I'm honestly surprised. That's all it is. I anybody that has a little bit of patience, can see that one. That bubble bursting in a very short amount of time.

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  00:56
Sunday, we had lunch with a couple who had been clients of ours for quite a while. Wonderful human beings. They I'm sure are listening and will say hi to them. Hello, hello. But one of the things I said to them, I said do not go to drudge. Drudge is a godforsaken horrible place to get news. On the other hand, it is an aggregator. The problem is the damn headlines. Oh,

Paul Truesdell, II  01:22
yeah. Yeah. Well, that's that's the Drudge away. Right? You you rewrite the headlines to get people to click? Yeah, clickbait and scale coming back. So, but yeah, it's it's interesting, the home prices in general, like, what is it? I don't know, the current lending rates are, but they are have not come down because, obviously, consequences of the market in the economy continuing to be quite robust. And they can't quite beat inflation. So we're kind of in this like quasi people who are once again talking about stagflation. I don't think it's that severe, considering we're still in single digit, interest rate, low single digit interest rate, and an inflation environment. But so let's call it let's call it baby stagflation. Maybe, maybe that's a word. I'm

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  02:14
not sure what is going to be called it. What I do know is that many years ago, when a couple of retirement communities in the Ocala metropolitan area, all over the creeks, Stone Creek, book Creek, little known Creek, there's all the creeks around hurricane crest stones and creeks and and

Paul Truesdell, II  02:35
oaks and oaks. That pretty much covers all the communities if you are willing to add or subtract a word or if

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  02:44
you're a developer of homes that you've please pick a different name from, from the word Stone Creek and whatever. Oak just Paulette Flintstone anyhow. Well, the

Paul Truesdell, II  02:55
big the big developers seem to pick more logical names these days. But yeah, we do have a plentiful number of stones and oaks and creeks.

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  03:06
Well, I don't have the actual statistics in front of me, I'm not going to get them but I believe the new home builders are doing very well in selling homes as opposed to existing homes. Now, one of the things I can tell you is that communities where there are not sidewalks, I think those communities have a harder time selling

Paul Truesdell, II  03:28
certainly, yeah. Especially since all of the newer not all, but the vast majority of the newer communities. Developments do. So, you know, it's just it's one of these things that I think a lot of people, especially people that are moving from, let's call it more metro area. Yeah. They're used to they're used to taking the dog out for a walk on the sidewalk and that sort of thing. Obviously, just because you'll have a sidewalk doesn't mean you can't go out and walk. But that's just something that people look for.

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  03:57
Absolutely. And in one of our communities. You know, we have sidewalks on one side of the street. I don't know if that's a growing trend, but probably is.

Paul Truesdell, II  04:08
It's a cost cutting measure. Only I can only go on one side of the street.

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  04:15
That always makes me my eyebrows rise, purse, my lips nod my head in disgust. Anyhow, I think the other thing is the boomer retiree, the second phase Boomer is definitely looking for more amenities. Absolutely. Yeah. Yeah. So that you want your golf cart, you want to be able to go to the recreation center, but I think their thing is you definitely want to have a community facility large enough to accommodate things. Absolutely.

Paul Truesdell, II  04:44
Yeah. It's interesting. Some of the comments in this article are actually quite good. They're kind of obvious if you think about it for a bit but one of them is that these home builders are doing are moving properties, and individual home sellers can't really compete. Because of the incentives that they can provide as far as financing, and other other perks, you know, free appliances and discounts and all these various things, because, you know, the reality is they're like anybody else if they have too much supply sitting on the market that prevents them from being able to continue to move forward. So it's just, it's a momentum game in a lot of cases. And it's funny, as you know, they're they're doing things like we talked about this a few months ago. They'll do you know, interest rate cut specials and things like this. And all they're really doing, you figured it out. They're, they're, they're buying down the rate. So you pay a little bit more for the price for the house. And they're giving a chunk of cash to the lender to get you a lower rate. So it's it's a very interesting kind of thing. I had no idea that sort of thing was even being done, but it makes a lot of sense.

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  05:53
Well, years ago, back off 40 years ago, 30 years ago in Marion County, Florida, which is the county in which the city of Ocala Russ city of Ocala is the county seat. You didn't have any out of state and national builders. You just didn't have it. You had a few, but it was pretty much all locally grown, folks. And that's pretty well, not the case anymore, except for your custom home builders. Yeah. I mean, Dr. Horton and Linaro is just dominating. Of course, he had the villages, which is own massive entity, we went down that way and drove around, didn't we?

Paul Truesdell, II  06:30
Oh, yeah. It's growing and growing and growing and just never seen his done. That's, it's wild. And

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  06:36
we found a definite secret way to get there very quickly. I don't know if I'd call it secret not

Paul Truesdell, II  06:42
really secret. It's just what does he take for 75? Straight down, and that turns into 466 If you just follow? And anyway, it's interesting, because that cuts you right through the heart of what you would think of traditional the traditional old area of of commercial district, I guess of the villages. You know, these days, you have sawgrass and you've got Brownwood. And what Spanish Springs was the first one and then what was was the other one the lake Sumter, Sumter landing or whatever they call it. Anyway, so you know, you've they're all spread out. Now. It's not like there's one drag or one main road that goes easily to any one of these places anymore. You kind of have to zigzag around. Tremendous how large that development is. And it's funny how you can hit what three or four counties when you're bouncing around there. Yeah, three counties, rattles straddle Darien,

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  07:36
Lake and Sumter. You can goofy and then you're also so you're covered by the Marion County Sheriff's Office lake in Sumter County Sheriff's Office, the Wildwood police department as well as the Leesburg Police Department. Yeah. So you know, it's gonna go one day, it's gonna be down to Claremont, Claremont, because

Paul Truesdell, II  07:55
I'm sure. Anyway, it's interesting. So, you know, the, I don't know, don't have any data on them. Not that they don't think they share any of that sort of stuff. But sure, sales that there are slowed a little bit to some of the stuff that people are talking about. And, you know, anyway, lives here knows it knows about it as obviously the other thing that doesn't help is the insurance situation in the state of Florida. It's not getting it's supposedly it's getting better. But you know, it is what it is. I've spoken to quite a few on the if you're on the coast, places like the, you know, profiled in this article, Tampa, Cape Coral, all the places have the worst, biggest decline in home sales. You know, it's had the biggest run ups from people move in during COVID. But then at the same time, they also have had the biggest run ups. And in insurance prices.

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  08:42
Yeah, I've had an opportunity. It's not worth explaining how and why. Where I've talked to more than just a few people who have relocated from coastal areas in Florida. Amon retired within the last five to 10 years, and they're saying I can't afford to live there anymore because of the insurance. Yeah, my comment to many of you is

Paul Truesdell, II  09:03
a very common thing. Yeah, it's been a lot of articles about people that, you know, a lot Historically people gripe about property taxes, but a lot of places have, you know, a grandfather clause or things like that, that keep your rates to a reasonable increase on an annual basis. And the probably the thing you can't account for is the insurance. Now you have some people that inherited a house or they bought something at a reasonable price. And, you know, they've lived on the coast all these years, and now the home's worth 123 $4 million. And, you know, the, the home insurance premium, because it's in a flood zone, and it's on the coast and all the various factors and the price of it, of course replacement value and all that, you know, they're looking at insurance premiums on an annual basis of 100 $200,000 which is just bonkers. You know, if you're a normal person and you bought it for a reasonable price, and now you're retired or something like that, you know, you go really can't afford to have your home insured, you might as well sell it because something happens to it. You're Sol. Well, one

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  10:05
of the things I think you said if you're a normal person, and that's something that really, frankly, irks me to no end. And I'm blunt, I don't give a damn. Normal people cannot live on coastlines. I'm sorry.

Paul Truesdell, II  10:18
Well, it's expensive. Not anymore. But I mean, you used to Well, yeah.

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  10:22
When when we had half the population, a third of the population? Well,

Paul Truesdell, II  10:26
of course, yeah. But also, you know, keep in mind, a lot of these people, you know, they had they own things years ago, when the population was nowhere near them. I don't disagree. It's encroached and encroached and encroach, and a place that used to be a sleepy beach community is now has, you know, a condo building a block down that with, you know, $5 million condos in it. And it's like, just, it's insane.

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  10:49
Well, I had a conversation with somebody real recently, and they mentioned that a county in the state of Florida, all of the county commissioners, in the last few years have gone out and become realtors. Yeah. Well, hello.

Paul Truesdell, II  11:04
That's pretty common, honestly, right within the inside track on the property deals, you know, you might as well make a cut on something, I guess. It's not really ethical, but it is what it is.

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  11:15
You know, we're gonna get into a few more things here. And I'm going to drop in our little disclaimer, go ahead and get a cup of coffee, stretch your legs back and 45 seconds give or take. So I want to clarify a couple of you who are listening

11:28
to the Paul gonna get into podcast to Paul's right on know that, Paul, it's time for a coffee break, but also seven inning stretch, you

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  11:35
have to understand

11:38
part of Wall Street due to our extensive holdings are all banned. Because we should assume that we have a position or can all companies discuss the point that is conflict history has been spending, listening history reading or using this podcast and found or website or any man or woman who understand the information was sent it is provided for informational purposes online and agreed to our Terms of Use, and Privacy Policy, just buying

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  12:03
one public to hold

12:05
informational items should never be considered professional golfer nothing said written before shall be construed as a recommendation or solicitation for buy or sell

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  12:18
all the lots, pay cash and the identical color. Okay, so I don't have my real estate agent costs, you know, I have all these reductions, fine, you know, I'm just building it, you're buying it, you're gonna put renters in it as long term rental. And that

Paul Truesdell, II  12:35
is, and we've talked about that in the past, you know, with the villages to kind of tie it into that you've been talking about the stats over the past couple of years, how it's just grown and grown and grown, the number of rentals in the villages owned by, you know, property management companies, property developers, investment companies, mom and pops that have decided to, you know, scoop up 1020 homes and get them out on these rental sites, you know, so you can come down and do a short term lease and spend four months in the villages and then go back up north when it gets warm again, there's, I don't remember the percentages, but in some neighborhoods, you're talking, you know, 20 30%, and it's just wild. Oh,

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  13:17
yeah, there's a website called village, Dash news.com. And then there's a fella who has a, he does a regular thing on the villages. And there's a lot of people who have pined in and said things like, No, I know three of my neighbors on the street, everybody else's rentals. Yeah.

Paul Truesdell, II  13:39
So when obviously those are, you know, just kind of a hunch, I'm gonna guess that those are going to be more. The older communities, the newer ones, obviously, probably have more restrictions on the deer thing. And they've and also just, they have less turnover. So it makes sense, though, because I mean, everybody talks about the villages thing is a lot of people can't, were there wouldn't want to spend full time there. So they go and spend the summer or the winter there and they bail out and go back and travel. I mean, I saw somebody today, coming into the office of big old giant diesel pusher with New Mexico plates, and they picked up their Florida, Florida plated Cadillac, and they were obviously headed out like we did a big, drove around and looked at some things yesterday and the RV parks and everything are emptying out they're pretty thin. Despite about three weeks ago, you couldn't fit an extra one in some of these places. So you know, there is a cyclical nature does definitely seem like the post COVID era people are back. The snowbirds are definitely back in a way that a had kind of there wasn't as much Snowbird activity before COVID At least I noticed. So anyway, it's interesting how you know, trends come and go, or

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  14:56
something just popped in my mind. We had talked about this a long time ago. For those of you who are regular listeners, my voice sounds a little bit different because I have the sniffles today. So periodically, I have to stop. You blow my nose. But we had a great drive yesterday, I really enjoyed that. But how many miles on the damn truck 160

Paul Truesdell, II  15:15
or 70, I think

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  15:18
we drove down for 75. And we found a back road, which you mentioned earlier into the villages that comes out on our 466 Down there in Sumter County, I

Paul Truesdell, II  15:30
believe. So what we did is we periodically

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  15:33
do investigative drives we we did that. And we wound up going up into Alachua County and into levy County, Marion County and Lake and Sumter. So we kind of went all around Marion County, by the way in the state of Florida, is larger than the state of Rhode Island. And one of the things I think we should consider doing is putting together a, a tour bus, like TMZ. We're not going to do that. But I have talked about this for quite a while I think we should probably really think about this again, if you're moving to Marion County, you're moving to Ocala, you're coming to the lake Sumter Citrus County area, and one of the projects we're going to put together, I really think this is going to be a thing. We're not gonna do it for free, you're gonna have to pay for it. We'll give it to clients, but you're gonna have to pay for it to move down, we're going to do a tour of the area. Where is yankeetown and Inglis and Crystal River and who has police departments and who has fire departments and who runs jails? And what's the sheriff and what the state constitutional officers are and what roads are. And if you want to see farms where to go, if you want to see beautiful tree lined roadways, if you want to see developers and the history and what things used to be called, I think we would need to go ahead and put that project somewhere up on the list of things to do because there's so many people moving down here, they have absolutely no clue about this area, and it has a extremely rich history. Yeah, there's

Paul Truesdell, II  17:09
in general, though, I mean, you just there's a lot around and you know, I think a lot of people lose lose sight of the reality of things. I mean, you can go, Kimber, what county road it is at the moment, but you know, you can tool all the way up to the far northwest corner of the county, and even all the way up and you know, in, in the grand scheme of things nowheresville, nothing but horse farms out there, you have nice, wide, pretty decently maintained roads, most places and all this can cross over into Alachua place where you pay twice the property taxes might be worse than that. And the road literally turns to rubble, the moment you cross the county line, like Alachua

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  17:54
County always looks down on Marion County, because they have the university and the professor's up there were a bunch of hillbillies. But if you look at their roads, they are not that good.

Paul Truesdell, II  18:04
Mainly their rural roads, you know, it's like, you can judge an area not based on you know, their shiny downtown's and that sort of stuff, but it's how they treat everybody on the periphery. And, you know, in general, Marin County has very, very, very good roads and tremendously less taxes than Alachua. You're comparing those two. But anyway, you know, it's interesting, because people just, there's a little kind of bits of perspective that people don't see, because I can tell you based on number of cars out there driving around on on a Sunday, you know, people don't see that stuff, unless you live out there. People I bet you 99% of the county has never even been up to the northwest corner. Yeah. And even knows, if you dropped them there, you know, minus some, some signs made maybe even with the road signs, you dropped them in the middle of an intersection, they'd probably be panicking. They're so lost. And, you know, a lot of the county focuses on, let's call it the south and east, because that's where the majority of the population is, right? Especially as you start to approach the villages. But um, anyway, yeah, it's, it's interesting. There's just there's a lot, there's a lot around here. And it helps keep things into perspective. When you're here, you have criticism and you're thinking of things. It's, again, perspective is important because sometimes things things can be a lot worse or at least in the case of some of this stuff, just very different. One

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  19:28
of the things I want to shout give a shout out to is a organization called horse farms forever. We saw quite a few other signs.

Paul Truesdell, II  19:38
Yeah. In the northwest part of the county signs on on fences outside of Farm Insurance has mainly started popping up over the past I guess couple months maybe it's while the people

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  19:48
that are involved in that I want to say congratulations and thank you founded in 2018 and the Marion County's farmland preservation area which is what that is up there. Yeah, it was established in 2005. I was very politically involved in things back then. Very rich minerals, soil, spring sheds, it's subjected to just incredibly ridiculous encroachment and development. roadway threats. Of course, you know, the reality is that turnpike and other things are getting ready to climb through the county. And so the this group, again, the horse farms forever.com Go to horse farms forever.com. The key thing here is varying County has a very rich farmland history. We've got some video that we took yesterday, when people think, oh, you know, there's not much money down here, a bunch of hillbillies driving their pickup trucks, your pickup truck that costs 150 $200,000. and miles and miles and miles of farms owned by billionaires, people just have no earthly idea how much money is in this area?

Paul Truesdell, II  21:02
I mean, the other thing is, you know, a lot of people just don't know much about horses, but amount of money in that industry. That and in the northwest, you have a lot of cattle as well. Yeah. It's, it's not small.

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  21:16
No. And, you know, credit goes where credit is due, you know, the Roberts family have developed and they've also preserved some beautiful farmland. Oh, yeah, blogged about it. But not everybody's a billionaire many times over. No. And, you know, we need some really good county commissioners that understand the importance of blue print planning. And managing that well, because of real estate development is what it is. And we got a lot of people come from out of state who want to turn this upside down. Look at highway 200. We moved here it was a two lane road for those of you who know where how we 200 is, it was a two lane road,

Paul Truesdell, II  21:55
as if you go south all the way and leave the county. So it used to be all the way through. Yep. You know,

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  22:03
we used to live in Dunellen, Florida. And when your brother was mother and I were getting ready to have your brother and he decided to come out a little bit early. You drove 100 miles an hour down 44 We drove 100 miles an hour down 200. Deputies didn't say a thing. They got a problem got into the hospital and boom, he came right out. You couldn't do that today. But now it

Paul Truesdell, II  22:25
would take an hour minimum.

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  22:29
So I want to move into something. It's called the rule of 72. And the rule of 114. I was talking to somebody about this the other day, those of you who are retired I've said this or times I can remember more times and Carter has pills or peanuts. You think anybody knows a Carter's pills means any more?

Paul Truesdell, II  22:47
Considering I have barely I think I know what it means. But I'd need clarification I do. Okay,

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  22:53
folks, Carter's liver pills. They were the staple of advertising on radio back in the day when you had all sorts of different people on the radio things like Oh, who would have been on the radio time we'd be think Arthur Godfrey, that would have been Arthur Godfrey, in he was on the radio, you have to look up Arthur Godfrey, you have to look it up Carter's liver pills. And worse. Peanuts refers to Jimmy Carter, who was a president still alive. He'll be dead sometime soon. And that's not being mean. But he's, you know, he's he's old. He's under hospice care. But yeah, he has a peanut farmer. So that's where it kind of comes from. But the rule of 72 is the number of years it takes to double something. So if you have inflation, that average is 6%. That means the cost of everything you're buying is going to double in 12 years. So when inflation has been 3% or less every year, yes, not a big deal, you live 2030 years and you die. But at 6% It means it doubles in 12 years, but here's the kicker at 114 with the exponential curve, that means everything's going to double at 6% in a grand total of 19 years. So it gets quicker, I'm sorry, triple, it's going to triple in 19 years. So the first 10 years are usually pretty easy. Second, 10 years get a little rough third, gets real rough, because that means if you're making $100,000 Right now, you've got a pension. 30 grand, yeah, Social Security, you your spouse has 70 grand in Social Security, you got a pension, you got 100 200,000 coming in Sure. 12 years from now you need to enter $1,000 and indicted years you're gonna need

Paul Truesdell, II  24:33
300 Or to put it in easier perspective. I think for people if you're looking at that 19 years where you're where you're you need was three times, right? Right. When 14 is three, well, that would be the equivalent of having an income of 33,000 today. There you go. So that would put it in more perspective on how things could work and it makes it a little more realistic. I think it's easier to simulate Your head, what that would be worth and how, what kinds of decisions you would make based on that. So that's definitely something you have to plan for.

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  25:07
Yeah, I think that's a far better way of saying So, ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, what at all all of you who are out there retired right now in radio layin in the ozone here. My name is Paul Truesdale. I'm the elder. Joining me is Paul Truesdale. Younger, and we are here to tell you get ready to reduce your spending by two thirds. That's really what it comes down to, assuming

Paul Truesdell, II  25:32
no growth, certainly no growth. So yeah, some you know, growth of assets or no ability to produce or create an additional income, which obviously, that's not the case. I mean, well, most people will not go back to work, you know, but what I mean is, you know, leveraging your assets in different ways. There's, there's there are options, there's ways there's things you can do but, but regardless, I mean, when you're when you need three times the income to compete with your current standard of living, some things are gonna have to budge obviously, for most people. So if

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  26:05
you've got money at a CD, and you're hoping to keep up with inflation, bless your sweet little heart.

Paul Truesdell, II  26:11
Oh, yeah. Well, that's that's the good joke, right? And past few years, if you have had a CD paying 4%, and inflation six, and you're, you're losing 2% on your money, and paying taxes on it. Yeah. And paying taxes on it just doesn't make any sense. But anyway, it's just, yeah. So

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  26:28
between the cost of maintaining your home, which is a real impact, you know, it just it aging homes require expenses, and plumbing, electrical roofing, they all need replaced, appliances need to be replaced? Generally speaking, that's about 20 years. So you retire it, oh, let's say, retire at 65. You pull the pin 30 years later, you're 95? I doubt that you have the same refrigerator? Microwave?

Paul Truesdell, II  27:00
Well, that's the other thing, right? I mean, you know, using, let's call it a past era, or past generations, retirees and everything, as an example, or as a as a guide is, in some ways, very useful in other ways, not as useful as you'd think, currently, because of the let's call it the consumer consumer ification of everything. I mean, you know, how long does the refrigerator last today? Oh, they're Wait, they're cheaper than they used to be. And they have all these fancy features. But you know, they last maybe eight to 10 years at the outset, if you're lucky, unless you spend a tremendous amount on a really well made unit from an American German or Japanese manufacturer, right. So, as

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  27:47
dad always said, only a rich person can afford to buy something cheap. And

Paul Truesdell, II  27:53
unfortunately, I mean, that's just kind of how the whole country has been conditioned is to buy cheap and just replace all the time. But as these things basically just become a commodity good, with minimal profit margin on the sale of them, or manufacturer of you know, that's a problem, because now, instead of buying no one or two stoves in your entire life, owning a home for 40 5060 years, of course, people don't do anymore. You know, on top of that, now you're gonna be buying a stove every, you know, 810 years, right? That's a bit of an exaggeration, because stoves are usually typically easier to repair unless they're one of these godforsaken stoves that are all super electronic and have screens all over them and everything, which I can't imagine they're gonna last very long.

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  28:44
So anyway, as we continue along, I think one of the things people are having sticker shock is over the cost of appliances. Obviously, we're having sticker shock over gas. And depending upon where you live, California is having a sticker shock over fast

Paul Truesdell, II  28:59
food. Yeah, I can see the minimum wage

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  29:03
for fast food restaurants is $20 an hour. And don't ask me how they came up with this segue in California. Yeah, California minimum wages forget that by next year. Minimum wage in Florida is 15. Well, here's

Paul Truesdell, II  29:17
the thing is like, you know, and that was a that was a state referendum. You know, everybody, the citizens citizens declared they agree that this is a thing to do. Well, well, it's kind of doesn't matter. It's gonna increase prices on your basic things that require, let's call it low skilled labor. And you start in you're seeing it Amanda, absolutely. Every everything out there, man. It's just

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  29:41
so what's happening California base wage base minimum wage is $15. But if you're in fast food is 20. Does that make any sense?

Paul Truesdell, II  29:49
No, but I mean that Welcome to California legislature. So people are they're effectively institutionalizing the reality that But some people will never escape that minimum, low skilled labor job position that so they need to support them effectively. It's it's silly. Well,

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  30:09
the problem is every single article is out there talking about, yeah, I can't afford to eat fast food. My comment is that you probably shouldn't be eating fast food, fast food restaurants are a garbage hole. They are a problem that is simply folks don't don't go to those places. You're just killing yourself. You're reducing your longevity, you're increasing your morbidity as just don't do it.

Paul Truesdell, II  30:36
Yeah, they're, they're atrocious. But you know, you get what you pay for. So

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  30:41
but that being said, I think we're seeing a run up in fear because of the presidential election. I think a lot of people are beginning to freak out. I saw an interesting poll. Now a polls a poll, but just a forecaster, he's, he's better at forecasting and polling. But he had sees no way that Biden could lose this election. It's a long time till the election. And I still have under the impression that we do not know for sure who the Republican or Democratic nominee will be when it comes to election time. And with that being said, you look, I don't wish ill on anybody. But we've had plenty of assassinations in this country. We've had people die while they've run for office. We've had people die in office, we've had people become incapacitated. You know, what happens if Uncle Joe, President United States has a massive stroke? Two days before the election, and you have all this early voting that everybody like, I want to change my vote? Well, you can't do it now. Will there be enough of a swig to change it if they don't want? Bill Harris? You know, are we going to have Donald Trump and a dog killer as vice president? Got you to laugh?

Paul Truesdell, II  31:55
Yeah, I don't know. I mean, that's this is the issue with early voting and all these various things. But at the same time, I don't know. I mean, it's a long as as is every single election cycle that I've that I recall the most important one in the history of the world. Every election is the most important election. But you know, the the thing that keeps coming to mind, I've seen it every election that I can remember, everybody thinks things are settled in stone by a certain date and time and then you know, things change. So I would say I don't know. And we will see, as far as all this stuff goes. Anything can happen at this point in time, especially when you have two of the oldest candidates to ever run for office or at least be nominees. Well,

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  32:40
we had a a very weird group of people running the sheriff's office 20 years ago. In one of the multitude of under sheriff's we were the only county in the state that had a clown circus of under sheriff's one of them ran and it never made a misdemeanor arrests never made a felony arrest never worked the street he was the attorney for the for the sheriff went to the police academy got certified and went from being a rookie to UnderSheriff, really amazing. Sheriff has the same thing this guy had was an attorney appointed sheriff to fill a vacancy from a guy removed from office is just a it's just a clown show. But remember, Danny, he won the Republican primary and he had to drop out. Yep. And we got who was his name? Chris Blair in there. Yeah. I think Chris Blair got removed from office. Cheese cried.

Paul Truesdell, II  33:37
That was a cursed election. Who is there was nothing good was gonna come out. So thank

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  33:43
God, we gotta go. But uh, Billy Woods cheese Criminy we finally got a real law man running the damn Sheriff's Office.

Paul Truesdell, II  33:49
Yeah, absolutely.

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  33:50
So for those of you who vote, always remember never forget. People who run for sheriff are elected. They are all enforcement officers. And as places like California, Los Angeles, San Francisco have learned would you elect these social workers to these positions?

Paul Truesdell, II  34:13
Yeah.

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  34:14
You're screwing yourself?

Paul Truesdell, II  34:15
Yep. That's not the purpose of the job, which makes

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  34:19
me a little bit conservative, some of our defense department leaders in the western world who have never done a legitimate combat tour. Well,

Paul Truesdell, II  34:30
I mean, the reality is, I mean, anybody, anybody that is, has been in, in the military of any sort, at least, in our military will tell you that, you know, there's a big difference between those who are the enlisted and those who are officers and, and, you know, there's a there's a reason there's such a typically anyway, dramatic culture difference between the two because one's very political and one is very, I mean, it may be political, but it's, it's at the end of the day, in the end of the day, they're there to do job, they're not there to brown those and work their way up the ladder. And the personality types that you get are very dramatically different between those two. And it's a real burden as somebody who works in way up typically. Yeah, it's just I mean, it happens, but it's not super cost. Sumpter County, but you know, same applies to, you know, I guess, you know, it kind of goes back to this, you know, evergreen topic that just the gift that keeps on giving. You know, it's the big difference between Russia and every other western country. We have NCOs noncommissioned officers, meaning they're enlisted who get of rank, and they're the ones who are actually on charge in charge. And on the battlefield, at least, at a level that actually matters. They're the ones interfacing with the people that actually do things. And they're the ones kind of coordinating between the officers and everybody else. And we have in the everybody will tell you that, you know, you know, thank you for the NCOs because those are the people that make the military work the way it does. So

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  36:08
just like in law enforcement does have police department, everybody knew that the police department is successful or fails based upon the quality of the street sergeants. Yeah, it's always been that way. Same

Paul Truesdell, II  36:20
thing. Yes, street sergeants would be here would be your NCO equivalent in your average Police Department, sheriff's office, that sort of thing. But you know, in the case of Russia to hammer the point home, they don't have NCOs you have the enlisted and you have the officers and they're very, they're, they're separated, and they're very different. And, you know, that explains a lot of the let's call it more unusual behaviors, compared to the way our systems work. To there's so that

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  36:50
reminds me going back to what year was it was a 2008 Yeah, I guess it was 2008 when we had one Sheriff, three under sheriff's I think we had 28 we had died or lovin majors 35 Captain's I think they had 28 lieutenants, something like 100 sergeants, and we did the ratio calculation. And he had one supervisor for every two deputies. And he used to tell people, for God's sakes, daycare for infants at a higher ratio than that. It is. So we had a Russian format. Back in the day, thank God, we got to do Sheriff Billy Woods if he if you're going to vote, man is running for office. And he is he's the real deal. So the bottom line is Russians, they can't make a decision to the field.

Paul Truesdell, II  37:46
Now, but I mean, there's also other aspects too, you know, people are afraid to make decisions, they're afraid to make somebody mad and they'll get punished for it. You know, just there's no, there's not as much um, it's called individual initiative that's incentivized anywhere in the organization. And the initiative that does exist, is there to serve, let's call it serve your masters in a way that makes sure they profit handsomely. Since corruption is corruption and graft is called very influential and the Russian and the Chinese militaries. Let's

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  38:22
start wrapping this up. You have a couple of things I think got in China, but I want to give you a headline that is on the Wall Street Journal. These are the kinds of headlines just makes me want to scream. It's the Wall Street Journal. Okay. Cool. Yeah,

Paul Truesdell, II  38:35
there's there's been some, let's call it comically written articles I've seen on there in the past few weeks. One of them was something about wearing wide pants, oh, boy. And ended up being a three paragraph article about a controversy at an office and stylings of people going to work. It was like, How is this Wall Street Journal? Oh, it's terrible. This is more like a, a short little blurb and something, you know, a fashion magazine that it was actually mildly interesting, but it didn't really serve it. The outlet didn't make any sense anyway,

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  39:08
well, here's an article is titled, quote, I need enough money to say no to jobs. How do I get that? Unquote. So somebody supposedly has written did to ask a question and are going to answer it. It's a seven minute read. seven minute read. So that means if you they're basically that out of let's say, 70 words a minute, but a 490 500 word article, and I can summarize this because I hate financial planners. I just hate that whole idea about financial planner. Nobody needs financial planners. Do it all yourself. You need advisors, you need managers, but not he said he had financial planners. Words have meaning folks, Words have meanings. So here's what I'm gonna give advice to whoever wrote this said I need more money to say no to jobs. How do I get that? Here you go. May Get more, spend less, adjust your expectations or do a combination of the three. Yeah, there you go. A and B. Chuck. It's definitely more difficult to that. Yeah.

Paul Truesdell, II  40:12
Well, you mentioned I had a couple of things I'll quickly run through them. In China and Russia, there's substantial flooding. The it's called the spring floods are lots of snowpack, over the over the winter, and a little bit more rain and snow and melt and that sort of stuff over the past couple of weeks and months. Something obviously, like, if you watch any mainstream news, you probably won't see much about it. But in Russia, I think it's up to maybe half a million, maybe a little bit more people displaced. Now, remember, Russia is not that populous of a country got 120 million people, so less than half, or 140, whatever the official number is, you know, less than half of the United States in the grand scheme of things. And, and you know, what, compared to the EU, like, an eight or something of the population, you know, hundreds of 1000s of people being displaced from flooding is a big deal. You know, it's on the scale of Katrina in the United States, like, massive problem. And all that has to do with dams. Their public infrastructure is absolutely atrocious, especially out in more rural areas where the corruption is, you know, they spend money on a project and 80 cents on the dollar gets stolen. But the other thing people aren't talking about is you have substantial flooding in in China as well. Particular the Guangdong Province, which is an important province for manufacturing and stuff. You know, they have 110,000 people displaced from their homes. Just last evening, you had a tornado ripped through a place and killed a bunch of people. There's some pictures of let's see, Guangzhou, which is a a large manufacturing very populous, a town or city. So you know, things that we typically associate with America, which is you know, America's as the guys on the China show, love to call it's the ABP the American bad party. Now, only America has tornadoes. You know, only America has poverty. Only America has crime, all these sorts of things. Yeah, same things happen everywhere else.

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  42:30
I'm so sick and tired of these people that just do nothing but just berate the country. Oh, my God, look at the numbers in these universities that are supposedly Ivy League schools that are just you know, get these damn people.

Paul Truesdell, II  42:43
Well, they're you know, the reality is, is it's this is part of their influence and propaganda operations. This stuff comes straight from CCP propaganda outlets, it does very easily traced, people just don't go and look at CGTN or any of the other English language or Western language focused things. But anyway, so the point is, is you know, you've got a city of Guangdong Province, Guangdong. I'm sorry, Guangzhou has 15 point 3 million people huge city will be it'd be the biggest city tonight in the United States. And this is a small a smaller city in China. Anyway, point is the populations of some of these cities in China are just massive, right? Let's call it it's called a middle middling size city in China. That's that's probably more accurate. You know, they have a tornado ripped through and the pictures looks, you know, Yep, looks like a tornado ripped through. It's pretty bad. But this is just, this stuff happens all the time. We

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  43:51
had the best of tornadoes ripped through the Midwest and for people die. Hardly anybody got hurt. Lots of property damage. Oh, yeah. Lots of damage. But

Paul Truesdell, II  43:59
all this is relative. But yeah, but this, this rip what looks right through a residential area or a warehouse area. So the damage could have been way worse if it if it rip through, you know, residential. Anyway, point is, is that, you know, there's a lot of stuff going on in the world that people don't pay attention to. And, you know, in Russia, there's lots of flooding. You know, lots hundreds of 1000s of people displaced China, you have a tremendous amount of flooding going on from similar for similar reasons. And, you know, it is what is this is going to affect the

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  44:34
result of climate change people screaming about well, they are but like, I

Paul Truesdell, II  44:38
think people are just tired of hearing about it. You know, the reality is, is this is just, it's cyclical, but But with regard to this, it's interesting, though, because, in particular in Russia, nobody really cares. But in China, you know, you have a lot of flooding in a large manufacturing region of China, that is going to affect things and China is our Eddie has dramatic economic problems compared to for recent years. You know, it is what it is, you know, the Chinese government has been propagandizing, let's call it how great the economy is. But the real data, they they've shut down all the traditional economic markers that people would look for. Nobody really knows exactly what's going on other than they're cooking the books, and their economy is down tremendously. Like, you know, the the domino effect of having, you know, youth unemployment at 20 and 30%. For years and years on end, you know, domino effect of having people with master's degrees, who are unable to get employment for more than three or $4,000 a year US dollar equivalent is bad. And this is the reason why China has a billion security cameras, and the military has mostly focused inward on domestic security and national security, dissident prevention issues.

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  46:03
And as we've witnessed, there is no crime at China. That's the beautiful thing about our now

Paul Truesdell, II  46:09
there's no crime, at least not on any official stats, there are always cooking the books.

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  46:14
So for those of you who know that I'm very sarcastic, we both are the crime of China is unbelievable. We watch videos, and we have inside reports, which is what we do, and it has been unbelievable. So we've watched some horrific crime events that are never reported over there. And you have to understand at China when you talk about 30% unemployment among youth, real quickly, do you work city has about 8.3 million? Los Angeles 3.8 million, Chicago 2.6 million, that when you get to China, Shanghai has got almost 22 billion people, Beijing, almost 18 shows Zen 17 I can't pronounce half these damn things. Look at this. I mean, you said that these equals audit audit on the

Paul Truesdell, II  47:10
the number of million plus residents, you know, like sleeping residents, you know, not metro area, but just the city proper. Right? Because that's the thing is like New York City, like, what does that mean, New York City is is you know, it's all? You know, is Brooklyn part of New York City? Yeah, it is part of the the way we calculate it, is we're more calculating kind of like this homogenous kind of metro area. You know, where in places and China these places, you know, they have the same thing. They have districts, but they're all under the same kind of city government. Right. Right. So the differences is, you know, you compare, you know, we add in a lot more than what they would consider. So the point is, is just the population density is, people know, how dense the population is in New York and some of these places in China, you got to city, a two, 3 million people, it's got the same population density, and it's in the middle of nowhere. Yeah. And it's just like, wow, there's

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  48:04
that you have India, which has a bigger population to China. No, yeah.

Paul Truesdell, II  48:09
Well, it was gonna say, as far as the crime goes, I mean, that's the thing you have to you have to kind of keep it in perspective is, you know, when you have official cooking of the books, and in this public perception to save face on, and that's your official story, a lot of stuff can get shoved underneath that, that you get, you know, you get violent, you know, Mafia crime, activity, and gangs and stuff that are associated with people in the government and all that, that run rampant, because what are they going to do? If people tied in with the government, they're there, everything is tied to keeping the status quo? No, there's never going to be an enforcer of these problems is the point because there's just so much corruption and there's so much on the line to lose if you if it were to come and become an official problem that needs to be solved. So anyway, it's just it's a it's a disappointing situation, because it will never, it won't get solved under the current security and political regime in there. And anybody who thinks it will, I mean, look at the Hong Kong protests and all that stuff. You know, they'll eventually get a hold on it and crack down and whatever. It's just, it's a sad situation. It's not gonna get solved probably anytime soon.

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  49:23
Let's wrap this up. For those of you who are in the Ocala metropolitan area, we'll go all the way up to Gainesville, down to Tampa. If you are interested in having Paulette, I speak at your event talking about Chinese and Russian influence, media operations and how to deal with that will give you some real eye opening read examples. Let us know call 212-433-2525 as to 12433 2525 Get hold of us on the interwebs with that, any final words and we'll get wrapped up get out of here.

Paul Truesdell, II  49:59
No, I think that's it. I think we covered a nice array of topics like

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  50:04
we always do. My name is Paul Truesdale. I am Paul the elder. Jordan B is

Paul Truesdell, II  50:08
Paul the younger. We're done to do.

Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF  50:11
We're out of here.

50:14
You have been listening to the Paul Truesdale podcast. For additional items serious to humorous wisdom to occasional outrage of various degree. Visit Paul truesdell.com. That's Paul truesdell.com.

50:42
Truesdell, J.D. AIF

What is The Paul Truesdell Podcast?

The Paul Truesdell Podcast

Welcome to the Paul Truesdell Podcast. Two Pauls in a pod. Featuring Paul the Elder and Paul the Younger. So, what's the gig? Individually or collectively, Paul and Paul sit down and chat predominately at the Truesdell Professional Building and record frequently. They explain a few things about how life works before time gets away. They connect the dots and plot the knots, spots, and ops with a heavy dose of knocks, mocks, pots, rocks, socks, and mops. Confused? Then welcome aboard! You see, Paul the Elder and Paul the Younger enjoy telling complex stories that are always based on business, economics, and forecasting while having fun, laughing, and being among like-minded men, women, and children from Earth, Pluto, Jupiter, and Neptune. Individually and jointly, Paul the Elder and Paul the Younger, coupled with Team Truesdell, have been there and done it. If you enjoy front porch philosophers who take deep dives and connect the dots, while drinking coffee during the day and a whiskey after five, welcome.

It is a true pleasure to have you onboard.

This is, The Paul Truesdell Podcast.