Show Notes — Thu, Oct 16, 2025
FX
- USD mixed/softer as Fed signals rising job-market risks and a nearing end to balance-sheet runoff; data flow still disrupted by shutdown.
- EUR holds above 1.16 on improved French political backdrop and firmer industrial prints.
- GBP firmer above 1.34; Chancellor Reeves flags higher taxes on wealthier households; BoE notes softer labour market.
- JPY briefly bid after BoJ’s Tamura urged moving rates toward neutral; haven tone faded as USD flows stabilized.
- AUD pressured by weaker jobs (higher unemployment), partly offset by RBA comments that conditions have eased; NZD steadier alongside a stronger PBoC CNY fix.
Commodities
- Gold extends record run above $4,200/oz on softer USD and easing expectations.
- Oil rangebound; geopolitical noise (Ukraine strike on Russian refinery; reports of Indian refiners preparing to trim Russian imports) offset by surprise U.S. builds in crude and gasoline and cautious demand guidance.
- Base metals subdued to rangebound; China CPI/PPI still soft keeps demand questions open.
Tariffs & Trade
- President Trump: U.S. is “in a trade war with China”; tariffs framed as national-security tool; 100% tariffs remain on the table.
- China MOFCOM: rare-earth curbs are not a ban; civilian-use licenses to be approved; earlier introduced special port fees for U.S. ships.
- South Korea signals optimism on a U.S. tariff accommodation alongside a large U.S. investment pledge.
- Mexico in talks with U.S. to discount tariffs on heavy-truck parts.
- U.S. officials say no broad evidence of appliance tariff evasion after Whirlpool complaint.
Geopolitics
- Middle East: Fragile Gaza ceasefire; Israel orders plans in case fighting resumes; Hamas says all recoverable hostages/remains transferred; U.S. describes improving aid flows and early work on a stabilization force.
- Russia–Ukraine: Kyiv signals desire to press offensive; talk of potential settlement space persists; energy infrastructure again targeted.
- Venezuela: Caracas condemns Trump’s confirmation of CIA operations, calling it a violation of international law.
Notable Policy/Headline Signals
- Fed Beige Book: activity little changed; labour demand muted; retail goods spending edged down.
- BoJ’s Tamura: push rates toward neutral to avoid sharper hikes later.
- U.K. budget signalling: higher taxes on the wealthy “part of the story.”
What to Watch Next
- USD path as Fed speakers (Waller, Barkin, Barr, Miran, Bowman, Kashkari) frame the easing outlook.
- Follow-through in gold at new highs and whether oil breaks its range on fresh supply/demand shocks.
- Any concrete U.S.–China tariff steps (scope, timelines, sector carve-outs) and China’s licensing cadence on rare earths.
- U.K. budget details and French no-confidence dynamics for EUR sentiment.
What is The Financial Source Podcast?
Your daily dose of sentiment updates in the European and US sessions and critical risk event previews so you stay up to date with what's moving the market right now.