The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

Next week could be a pivotal one for the global economy, with interest-rate decisions from the Fed and ECB alongside a challenging UK Budget.
In this episode of The Weekly Briefing, Chief UK Economist Paul Dales is joined by Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown to explain what to expect and where the biggest risks lie. They discuss why the Fed is likely to pause next week but resume raising rates from December, and what to listen for from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh as inflation pressures remain uncomfortably strong.

They also explain why the ECB faces a rather different inflation problem and why its tightening cycle may be close to an end. And with central bankers increasingly reluctant to commit themselves to a particular path for rates, they ask whether forward guidance is really dead, and how investors should interpret the signals coming from the Fed and ECB next week. Finally, with the UK Budget looming, they consider the difficult balancing act facing the Chancellor as he seeks to ease cost-of-living pressures without unsettling already-nervous bond markets.

https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/central-bank-drop-unpacking-fed-and-ecb-october-meetings
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/ecb-watch/ecb-will-hike-only-once-more
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economics-focus/uk-budget-2026-preview-unfinished-fiscal-business

What is The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics?

Capital Economics, a world-leading provider of macroeconomic insight, presents The Weekly Briefing – the show with all you need to know about what's happening in the global economy and markets. From the Fed's next decision to China's slowdown to moves in equities, bonds and FX, each week, our team of economists take apart the big economic and market stories and highlight those issues that investors should be paying more attention to.