Show Notes — Current Market & News Briefing (Thu, 9 Oct 2025, Europe Open)
Focus: FX, commodities, trade/tariffs, geopolitics
Excluded: Equities, fixed income (unless tied to FX), crypto
FX
- USD: Firm carry from prior session.
- EUR: Modest rebound off ~1.16 as France signals new PM path and possible budget by year-end; uncertainty still a drag.
- JPY: Steady after earlier slide; markets digest soft wage data and watch for official pushback on FX pace.
- GBP: Slightly higher after brief dip below 1.34; few new domestic drivers.
- NZD/AUD: NZD retraces part of post-RBNZ slump after -50 bp cut; AUD buoyed by constructive regional tone.
Commodities
- Gold: Pulls back from ATHs but holds near $4,000/oz on lingering policy/geopolitical risk.
- Oil: Fractionally softer on Gaza ceasefire headlines; tempered by China’s post-holiday demand returning.
- Metals/Energy: Copper firmer as Chinese markets reopen; UK system operators confident on winter gas/power supply.
Trade, Tariffs & Tech Policy
- US–EU: Brussels wary that fresh US demands could hollow out a budding trade understanding; Washington frames as “reciprocal, fair, balanced.”
- China: New rare-earth export controls from Dec 1—licenses for dual-use items; stricter rules for military end-users.
- North America: Canada cites “meeting of minds” with US on steel/auto and scope for bilateral deals alongside USMCA.
Geopolitics
- Middle East (Gaza): Mediators say terms agreed for phase-one ceasefire—hostage-prisoner exchange and initial Israeli pullback; cabinet approval and implementation steps expected imminently.
- Taiwan/China: Taipei warns of intensified hybrid warfare (cyber, AI-enabled ops, gray-zone pressure) by China.
- Russia–US: Moscow signals tougher line on plutonium agreement obligations; strategic-stability rhetoric elevated.
Sign-off: Watch whether the Gaza ceasefire holds, the dollar’s tone vs. EUR/JPY, gold’s grip on $4k, oil as China demand normalizes, and the policy ripple effects from rare-earth controls and US–EU trade posture.