1 00:00:00,020 --> 00:00:04,940 Josh: The most famous AI bull on Wall Street just called the top on the entire AI market. 2 00:00:05,160 --> 00:00:09,320 Josh: Leopold Ashenbrennan, the 24-year-old ex-open-air researcher who got fired, 3 00:00:09,640 --> 00:00:15,900 Josh: started a fund, and turned $250 million into $14 billion in less than two years is back. 4 00:00:16,020 --> 00:00:19,140 Josh: And his latest investment portfolio is not what you'd expect. 5 00:00:19,440 --> 00:00:23,640 Josh: He's gone completely bearish the entire stock market. He has taken out an $8 6 00:00:23,640 --> 00:00:27,300 Josh: billion short across the biggest names in AI. We're talking about NVIDIA, 7 00:00:27,580 --> 00:00:30,920 Josh: AMD, Broadcom, and the entire semiconductor supply chain. 8 00:00:31,020 --> 00:00:35,320 Josh: But all is not lost. He also revealed where the next biggest AI investment is 9 00:00:35,320 --> 00:00:37,260 Josh: going to be. It's in power and memory. 10 00:00:37,420 --> 00:00:40,820 Josh: He's doubled down on his investments in data centers, as well as three brand 11 00:00:40,820 --> 00:00:42,860 Josh: new companies. We're going to get into all of this, but first, 12 00:00:43,000 --> 00:00:44,420 Josh: let's talk about the biggest changes. 13 00:00:44,700 --> 00:00:49,100 Ejaaz: EJ, the largest company in the world, NVIDIA, the poster child for the AI revolution, 14 00:00:49,260 --> 00:00:52,740 Ejaaz: the stock that has made so many investors so wealthy over this run, 15 00:00:52,900 --> 00:00:57,920 Ejaaz: is now in the crosshairs. This is the largest short position that Leopold has. 16 00:00:57,980 --> 00:01:00,740 Ejaaz: And it's not obviously apparent when you're looking at the filing, 17 00:01:00,740 --> 00:01:03,280 Ejaaz: because when you look at the portfolio of what he's most short, 18 00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:06,080 Ejaaz: we see VanEck Semiconductor ETF is number one. 19 00:01:06,320 --> 00:01:12,280 Ejaaz: And just beneath that is NVIDIA. Now, currently he has $1.5 billion of short exposure to NVIDIA. 20 00:01:12,380 --> 00:01:14,420 Ejaaz: And this comes through the form of a put. 21 00:01:14,720 --> 00:01:18,280 Ejaaz: And those who are not familiar with it, a put basically just gives Leopold the 22 00:01:18,280 --> 00:01:22,300 Ejaaz: option, but not the obligation to sell the underlying asset at a predetermined 23 00:01:22,300 --> 00:01:26,660 Ejaaz: price. So he basically buys the right to sell NVIDIA stock at a higher price should it go lower. 24 00:01:26,860 --> 00:01:29,800 Ejaaz: Now, there is a $2 billion position sitting just above this, 25 00:01:29,940 --> 00:01:32,420 Ejaaz: which is a stock that most people may not have heard before. 26 00:01:32,500 --> 00:01:36,460 Ejaaz: The ticker is SMH, and it goes by the name of VanEck Semiconductor ETF. 27 00:01:36,980 --> 00:01:40,280 Ejaaz: Within this ETF, I was looking through the holdings, and the largest holding 28 00:01:40,280 --> 00:01:44,900 Ejaaz: is actually NVIDIA at 20%, which means if you combine the top two shorts, 29 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:49,140 Ejaaz: you get a $1.9 billion short position on NVIDIA. 30 00:01:49,140 --> 00:01:53,040 Ejaaz: And this is probably disappointing to a lot because everyone seems to believe 31 00:01:53,040 --> 00:01:56,740 Ejaaz: that NVIDIA is on a one-way trajectory north, but Leopold seems to think otherwise. 32 00:01:57,000 --> 00:02:01,040 Ejaaz: In addition to this position, we have Broadcom, Oracle, AMD, 33 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:03,580 Ejaaz: Micron, ASML, Intel, Corning, 34 00:02:04,020 --> 00:02:06,800 Ejaaz: These are all short positions now. And what you'll know is that, 35 00:02:06,880 --> 00:02:10,580 Ejaaz: I mean, Intel, one of the ones that he made his bread and butter on, 36 00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:14,400 Ejaaz: Intel made him more money than any stock in, I think, the portfolio's history. 37 00:02:14,540 --> 00:02:18,560 Ejaaz: He is now short on Intel. And these are all new positions. He's short on Broadcom. 38 00:02:18,720 --> 00:02:22,360 Ejaaz: For those not familiar, Broadcom is the company that is responsible mostly for 39 00:02:22,360 --> 00:02:23,940 Ejaaz: building out OpenAI's project Stargate. 40 00:02:24,310 --> 00:02:28,370 Ejaaz: That means he's essentially pulling out a short position on OpenAI and Project Stargate. 41 00:02:28,450 --> 00:02:31,970 Ejaaz: So there's some concerning names here if you've been bullish on the AI market 42 00:02:31,970 --> 00:02:35,290 Ejaaz: for a while, even something like Corning, the optical glass company. 43 00:02:35,530 --> 00:02:39,210 Ejaaz: This has been a big kind of beta play after the semiconductor trade. 44 00:02:39,310 --> 00:02:42,870 Ejaaz: And he's pulled up a big short position on this. So there's a lot of shorts 45 00:02:42,870 --> 00:02:44,130 Ejaaz: that are coming on the market. 46 00:02:44,470 --> 00:02:48,170 Ejaaz: There's, like you said, $8 billion of short exposure. That's 40 times more than 47 00:02:48,170 --> 00:02:51,170 Ejaaz: the fund was worth just 18 months ago. So this is a huge position he's taking. 48 00:02:51,170 --> 00:02:55,230 Josh: Yeah, it's extremely aggressive. And it becomes more apparent when you realize 49 00:02:55,230 --> 00:03:01,010 Josh: that his entire fund thesis was based on a 64-page essay that he wrote called 50 00:03:01,010 --> 00:03:02,290 Josh: Situational Awareness. 51 00:03:02,370 --> 00:03:06,870 Josh: And the core thesis, if you remember, Josh, is a big bet on semiconductors, 52 00:03:06,990 --> 00:03:12,430 Josh: specifically that compute flops will increase on multiple orders of magnitude over the next decade. 53 00:03:12,930 --> 00:03:17,210 Josh: This explicit swing trade that he's made, this $8 billion short position, 54 00:03:17,430 --> 00:03:21,610 Josh: is effectively a bet against that now. So it either indicates one of two things. 55 00:03:21,930 --> 00:03:25,270 Josh: One, he thinks that the market is too crowded for this particular trade, 56 00:03:25,290 --> 00:03:30,250 Josh: and so he's expecting there to be short-term volatility in downwards pressure on price. 57 00:03:30,390 --> 00:03:35,290 Josh: Or he just believes something's broken in his thesis and he hasn't spoken about what that might be. 58 00:03:35,810 --> 00:03:40,510 Josh: Now, not all is lost. If you look on the right side of this chart that we're 59 00:03:40,510 --> 00:03:43,070 Josh: showing, there is a bull book as well. 60 00:03:43,210 --> 00:03:47,950 Josh: So he does hold still massive positions in stock equity positions for specific 61 00:03:47,950 --> 00:03:51,450 Josh: types of companies, as well as taking on call options as well. 62 00:03:51,550 --> 00:03:53,890 Josh: So let's look at what he's positive on. 63 00:03:54,050 --> 00:03:57,750 Josh: So CallWeave, he's maintained his position. And CallWeave has been one of his 64 00:03:57,750 --> 00:04:01,410 Josh: biggest data center or neocloud investments for the longest time, 65 00:04:01,550 --> 00:04:02,670 Josh: since the start of the fund, actually. 66 00:04:02,670 --> 00:04:06,050 Josh: And he's taken levied bets on CoreWeave in many different ways through his own 67 00:04:06,050 --> 00:04:11,790 Josh: private investment or acquisition of Core Scientific, which helps CoreWeave do its thing. 68 00:04:11,930 --> 00:04:15,910 Josh: So for those of you who aren't familiar, CoreWeave is basically a neocloud that 69 00:04:15,910 --> 00:04:20,430 Josh: creates and sets up GPUs and provides them to the biggest AI labs. 70 00:04:20,550 --> 00:04:23,290 Josh: They've signed multi-billion dollar deals with the likes of Meta, 71 00:04:23,490 --> 00:04:27,330 Josh: Anthropic, and the likes of that. And then if you look just below that, Bloom Energy. 72 00:04:28,010 --> 00:04:32,950 Josh: This was his biggest swing trade, our fan favorite of last quarter. 73 00:04:33,150 --> 00:04:36,210 Josh: Bloom Energy creates these portable gas turbines, which you can kind of like 74 00:04:36,210 --> 00:04:39,070 Josh: fly into wherever your data center is and generate energy. 75 00:04:39,190 --> 00:04:42,330 Josh: Of course, one of the biggest constraints for AI data centers right now is that 76 00:04:42,330 --> 00:04:45,850 Josh: you have all these fancy GPUs, but you can't power them up because the energy 77 00:04:45,850 --> 00:04:49,470 Josh: grid that is currently here in the US does not work. It's not really effective. 78 00:04:49,610 --> 00:04:51,810 Josh: So you need to kind of have supplemental resources. 79 00:04:51,990 --> 00:04:56,450 Josh: That is Bloom Energy. He hasn't exited this position, but he did trim off a 80 00:04:56,450 --> 00:04:57,530 Josh: cool $1 billion. dollars. 81 00:04:57,770 --> 00:05:00,670 Josh: And to be honest with you, I don't blame him. His position went from, 82 00:05:01,030 --> 00:05:06,630 Josh: I believe, $800 million to about $2.5 billion potentially over the last three months. 83 00:05:06,690 --> 00:05:08,890 Josh: So it makes sense that he's taking some money off, but he's still maintaining 84 00:05:08,890 --> 00:05:12,450 Josh: about just over a billion dollars worth of Bloom Energy stock specifically. 85 00:05:12,690 --> 00:05:16,630 Josh: And then if you look below this, he's increased a bunch of different companies. 86 00:05:16,870 --> 00:05:20,690 Josh: CleanSpark, he's increased, Riot Platforms, Applied Digital, and Iron. 87 00:05:20,990 --> 00:05:24,670 Josh: Now, if these names seem a little familiar, that's because they play in the 88 00:05:24,670 --> 00:05:27,370 Josh: same NeoCloud market as CoreWeave itself. 89 00:05:27,630 --> 00:05:31,570 Josh: So he's really doubling down on data centers and NeoCloud specifically. 90 00:05:31,750 --> 00:05:35,110 Josh: He's observed that the likes of Anthropic and OpenAI are releasing newer models 91 00:05:35,110 --> 00:05:38,450 Josh: and that compute scaling laws are just continually increasing. 92 00:05:38,650 --> 00:05:40,990 Josh: So his big bet is that GPUs is 93 00:05:40,990 --> 00:05:44,750 Josh: still needed, but right now it's a delivery function that they're facing. 94 00:05:44,970 --> 00:05:48,070 Josh: And these companies solve that versus the actual GPU manufacturer, 95 00:05:48,230 --> 00:05:52,390 Josh: which is why I guess he's short NVIDIA, Broadcom, and all the likes. So interesting to see. 96 00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:55,740 Ejaaz: Yeah, this is a new narrative trade that we have forming, where we're kind of 97 00:05:55,740 --> 00:05:59,320 Ejaaz: moving away from the semiconductors into more of that infrastructure, 98 00:05:59,520 --> 00:06:01,940 Ejaaz: into the power, into the data centers, into the memory. 99 00:06:02,100 --> 00:06:05,160 Ejaaz: And he's very much doubling down what we saw last quarter, but doing so in a 100 00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:09,200 Ejaaz: way where he's also getting short exposure to the companies that he thinks might not do so well. 101 00:06:09,360 --> 00:06:12,340 Ejaaz: Now, it's important to note that this 13F filing is a snapshot. 102 00:06:12,680 --> 00:06:16,820 Ejaaz: It is a single moment in time that is taken based on the previous quarter's 103 00:06:16,820 --> 00:06:20,180 Ejaaz: trades. So the trades that are in this 13F filing, the holdings in there, 104 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:24,640 Ejaaz: are from January 1st to March 31st. This is basically where he ended the quarter. 105 00:06:24,840 --> 00:06:28,440 Ejaaz: And Leopold has been right pretty much every single time. 106 00:06:28,460 --> 00:06:31,880 Ejaaz: And we've seen his portfolio grow from $220 million to that, 107 00:06:32,100 --> 00:06:35,460 Ejaaz: what, $13.7 billion in notional value currently. 108 00:06:35,780 --> 00:06:38,800 Ejaaz: But there are some things that he might be getting wrong. When I go back to 109 00:06:38,800 --> 00:06:41,340 Ejaaz: that shortlist and I think about the companies that he shorted, 110 00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:43,000 Ejaaz: AMD is one of those large shorts. 111 00:06:43,300 --> 00:06:46,860 Ejaaz: AMD is up 74% in the last month. And he shorted it. 112 00:06:47,100 --> 00:06:50,860 Ejaaz: So he picked perhaps one of the most expensive moments to bet against this rotation, 113 00:06:50,860 --> 00:06:53,420 Ejaaz: but nonetheless, he thinks that the rotation is happening. 114 00:06:53,580 --> 00:06:57,100 Ejaaz: So is it a timing thing? Is it a general thesis thing? 115 00:06:57,440 --> 00:06:59,320 Ejaaz: Another one that was surprising is ASML. 116 00:06:59,820 --> 00:07:04,540 Ejaaz: I mean, as far as I'm concerned, ASML is still the only company that can do lithography. 117 00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:07,820 Ejaaz: It's a 100% monopoly on these chips, and he's shorting that. 118 00:07:08,140 --> 00:07:13,560 Ejaaz: So clearly, the thesis really is strongly presented towards memory and power 119 00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:17,420 Ejaaz: and infrastructure over the semiconductors. And I think it's just noteworthy to mention. 120 00:07:17,540 --> 00:07:20,960 Ejaaz: Now, we have these two charts, the book by the numbers that shows the stock 121 00:07:20,960 --> 00:07:23,360 Ejaaz: only positions as well as the top options positions. 122 00:07:23,460 --> 00:07:26,180 Ejaaz: Maybe we want to walk through that briefly just to do a little trace over of 123 00:07:26,180 --> 00:07:27,240 Ejaaz: what he currently holds and where. 124 00:07:27,420 --> 00:07:31,580 Josh: Well, I think what actually might be more useful, Josh, is if we walk through 125 00:07:31,580 --> 00:07:34,420 Josh: like what his thesis might be for all of these positions, right? 126 00:07:34,500 --> 00:07:35,740 Josh: Because these are pretty aggressive, right? 127 00:07:35,840 --> 00:07:40,080 Josh: You've got like, why is he doing this? We've got like a massive short position, $9 billion. 128 00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:43,640 Josh: That is not a small like number. And then we have this like small, 129 00:07:43,780 --> 00:07:46,840 Josh: weirdly bullish position. but we're unsure because like they're just a bunch 130 00:07:46,840 --> 00:07:49,720 Josh: of near clouds and power companies which we haven't really heard of like are 131 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:51,840 Josh: these good are these bad so here's my take. 132 00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:59,960 Josh: He's doing a bi-directional trade here for his thesis, and that is he is short silicon. 133 00:08:00,220 --> 00:08:04,880 Josh: So he thinks it's an overcrowded trade. He thinks GPU designers such as NVIDIA, 134 00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:07,820 Josh: Broadcom, as well as maybe manufacturers of the chips themselves, 135 00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:12,100 Josh: TSMC, they're all like overcrowded trades right here. I don't think he thinks 136 00:08:12,100 --> 00:08:13,240 Josh: he's bearish those things. 137 00:08:13,340 --> 00:08:16,220 Josh: I just think that he thinks that they're overvalued right now. 138 00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:22,120 Josh: And then conversely, he's very long power. He understands data centers and GPUs, 139 00:08:22,180 --> 00:08:24,380 Josh: unlike nobody else in this entire market. 140 00:08:24,640 --> 00:08:28,220 Josh: He has researched these things for goodness knows how long. And so he, 141 00:08:28,480 --> 00:08:31,080 Josh: of all people, will know where that next constraint is. 142 00:08:31,200 --> 00:08:34,000 Josh: And obviously, he thinks it's power, energy. 143 00:08:34,180 --> 00:08:39,020 Josh: He doesn't think there's enough energy or ways to get this power and energy to the GPUs itself. 144 00:08:39,140 --> 00:08:42,880 Josh: So maybe it's not that he's explicitly bearish on the semis specifically, 145 00:08:42,880 --> 00:08:48,240 Josh: but he thinks that his money is better spent chasing that next constraint. 146 00:08:48,240 --> 00:08:51,940 Josh: And he's expressed that as not just power, by the way, it's memory as well. 147 00:08:52,060 --> 00:08:58,300 Josh: He doubled down on SanDisk as well, which, by the way, is up like 40,000% over the last year. 148 00:08:58,380 --> 00:09:01,940 Josh: So you would think that if any trade was overcrowded, it would be SanDisk. 149 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:04,120 Josh: But obviously, he sees something that we haven't. 150 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:08,460 Josh: SanDisk is famous for creating a specific type of memory known as NAND flash. 151 00:09:08,820 --> 00:09:12,440 Josh: Which allows you to kind of store temporary memory for AI models. 152 00:09:12,540 --> 00:09:15,120 Josh: Like when you talk to an AI model, it needs to store temporary memory about 153 00:09:15,120 --> 00:09:19,340 Josh: you so that he can remember stuff and recall stuff when you're conversing with it. 154 00:09:19,420 --> 00:09:22,000 Josh: That is explicitly something that SanDisk provides. 155 00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:25,680 Josh: So I think that he isn't necessarily bearish, the GPUs. 156 00:09:25,780 --> 00:09:28,940 Josh: He's just short-term thinking that it's an overcrowded trade and his money's 157 00:09:28,940 --> 00:09:30,800 Josh: better spent on things like power and memory. 158 00:09:31,130 --> 00:09:35,370 Ejaaz: And now I'm wondering, is he bullish or bearish on the market as a whole? 159 00:09:35,470 --> 00:09:38,730 Ejaaz: Because I mean, this is the first time in the fund's history where the short 160 00:09:38,730 --> 00:09:42,630 Ejaaz: side of the book is actually larger than the long side in terms of notional 161 00:09:42,630 --> 00:09:43,930 Ejaaz: value and exposure that they have. 162 00:09:44,050 --> 00:09:48,930 Ejaaz: And this is a really stark difference for someone who's been really up only and long only. 163 00:09:49,090 --> 00:09:51,550 Ejaaz: And when I was first evaluating this, I was wondering, well, 164 00:09:51,610 --> 00:09:55,770 Ejaaz: is this just a hedge? Is this protecting his investments because they've gone up so much? 165 00:09:55,870 --> 00:09:58,450 Ejaaz: Maybe he's just locking it in and he's kind of protecting his downside. 166 00:09:58,450 --> 00:10:00,410 Ejaaz: But if it was a hedge, you'd really 167 00:10:00,410 --> 00:10:04,190 Ejaaz: only expect kind of smaller positions sized to offset the long book. 168 00:10:04,250 --> 00:10:06,810 Ejaaz: And we saw this last quarter where he had some hedge positions, 169 00:10:06,810 --> 00:10:08,350 Ejaaz: but it was mostly a hedge. 170 00:10:08,490 --> 00:10:12,490 Ejaaz: It wasn't a directional bet. But now that the puts are larger than the longs, 171 00:10:12,570 --> 00:10:14,850 Ejaaz: it's kind of a directional bet on the market going down. 172 00:10:14,990 --> 00:10:19,890 Ejaaz: So it seems like this weird pseudo thing where he expects the AA market to perhaps go down. 173 00:10:20,700 --> 00:10:24,280 Ejaaz: Even as a result of that, some of these things, the memory, the infrastructure, 174 00:10:24,440 --> 00:10:26,740 Ejaaz: the energy will continue to go up. And that's the bet. 175 00:10:27,020 --> 00:10:30,100 Ejaaz: So I wonder how that impacts the broader market as a whole, because it puts 176 00:10:30,100 --> 00:10:34,000 Ejaaz: him in this like weird juxtaposed position where the market goes down, 177 00:10:34,160 --> 00:10:36,820 Ejaaz: but yet some positions will not be going down. Does that make sense? 178 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:40,080 Josh: We actually have some proving points around that, because I think you're touching 179 00:10:40,080 --> 00:10:42,860 Josh: on something which is basically uncertainty. 180 00:10:42,900 --> 00:10:46,440 Josh: He doesn't know whether in some cases he's right or whether the market will 181 00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:50,660 Josh: go up and down. and you see that with he's matched a bunch of his put positions 182 00:10:50,660 --> 00:10:53,400 Josh: with call positions as well aka. 183 00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:54,640 Ejaaz: This is a great chart yeah 184 00:10:54,640 --> 00:10:57,480 Josh: He's trading a bi-directional book so what that 185 00:10:57,480 --> 00:11:02,580 Josh: means is uh in typical kind of like hedge fund manner mannerisms if you don't 186 00:11:02,580 --> 00:11:06,180 Josh: know where the market is going to go whether it's going to go up or down you 187 00:11:06,180 --> 00:11:10,340 Josh: hedge positions and you can cream off profit from the premiums that you make 188 00:11:10,340 --> 00:11:14,080 Josh: between these positions so let's say you take out i'm just making this up like 189 00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:16,940 Josh: a $10 million put position on one company, 190 00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:20,940 Josh: you can take out the equivalent on the other side and then like just earn from 191 00:11:20,940 --> 00:11:22,620 Josh: the margins between those different positions. 192 00:11:22,620 --> 00:11:25,260 Josh: If the price goes up or the price goes down, you still get paid premiums, 193 00:11:25,280 --> 00:11:27,500 Josh: right? It's known as like a collar trade specifically. 194 00:11:27,780 --> 00:11:30,900 Josh: So he's done that on four companies, the biggest one being Micron. 195 00:11:31,080 --> 00:11:35,300 Josh: And if he's bullish Sandisk memory, I don't understand how you would also be 196 00:11:35,300 --> 00:11:39,700 Josh: bearish from a thesis level on Micron, which is like the biggest US play. 197 00:11:39,880 --> 00:11:41,620 Josh: You know, Leopold is a purist, I believe. 198 00:11:41,880 --> 00:11:44,960 Josh: And so he's very bullish American stocks. That's why he made his biggest amount 199 00:11:44,960 --> 00:11:48,180 Josh: of money from the Intel trade. He's doing it with Boom Energy, NVIDIA and the like. 200 00:11:48,340 --> 00:11:52,120 Josh: So it would seem weird that he's like taking out a short position on Micron. 201 00:11:52,220 --> 00:11:55,380 Josh: But the way I understand it is he's doing this as a flat trade. 202 00:11:55,480 --> 00:11:56,740 Josh: He doesn't know which way it's going to go. 203 00:11:56,880 --> 00:12:00,580 Josh: He does believe the market is overcrowded. He does believe long term it's going 204 00:12:00,580 --> 00:12:04,500 Josh: to do very well. But he can't play around with, you know, a crazy billion dollar swing trade. 205 00:12:04,660 --> 00:12:07,580 Josh: So he's decided to hedge the market. And I think that's pretty smart, actually. 206 00:12:08,190 --> 00:12:12,470 Ejaaz: Yeah. And I guess you could kind of reduce this down into four key claims to this new thesis. 207 00:12:12,610 --> 00:12:16,870 Ejaaz: This is the new Leopold thesis. The first one being that the bottleneck has 208 00:12:16,870 --> 00:12:19,250 Ejaaz: moved from chips to electrons. And we have that. 209 00:12:19,350 --> 00:12:22,550 Ejaaz: We kind of know that a lot of chips are available. 210 00:12:22,770 --> 00:12:24,890 Ejaaz: The problem is figuring out where to plug them into. 211 00:12:25,190 --> 00:12:28,830 Ejaaz: And we see that with the most recent deal that was announced between SpaceX 212 00:12:28,830 --> 00:12:32,690 Ejaaz: and Anthropic, where Anthropic is so desperate for compute, they're willing 213 00:12:32,690 --> 00:12:36,330 Ejaaz: to partner up with their rivals in order to get it. That is not a matter of 214 00:12:36,330 --> 00:12:37,130 Ejaaz: not having enough chips. 215 00:12:37,310 --> 00:12:41,330 Ejaaz: It's a matter of not having the correct infrastructure to deploy these chips at scale. 216 00:12:41,530 --> 00:12:45,570 Ejaaz: The second claim is that chip valuations are priced for a world that doesn't really exist anymore. 217 00:12:45,890 --> 00:12:50,250 Ejaaz: That ETF, the SMH ETF that we mentioned earlier, it's up 66% year to date. 218 00:12:50,590 --> 00:12:55,190 Ejaaz: Meanwhile, Intel is up 200%. So while the market is pricing in a world where 219 00:12:55,190 --> 00:12:59,550 Ejaaz: every name and semis benefits equally from this AI demand, Leopold is taking 220 00:12:59,550 --> 00:13:01,870 Ejaaz: account of that. He's saying, that's not how this works. 221 00:13:02,130 --> 00:13:04,790 Ejaaz: There are winners and there are losers. And the early winners are the ones that 222 00:13:04,790 --> 00:13:09,110 Ejaaz: are going to keep on winning. And he's going to continue to pursue that as far as he could take it. 223 00:13:09,630 --> 00:13:12,550 Josh: I just noticed something crazy as well, Josh. 224 00:13:12,750 --> 00:13:16,950 Josh: If we go back to these long positions that he's taken. 225 00:13:17,110 --> 00:13:21,730 Josh: So he's maintained his core position and he's doubled down on a bunch of neoclouts, right? 226 00:13:22,690 --> 00:13:28,390 Josh: These neoclouts, these companies stand to benefit from the exact thesis that 227 00:13:28,390 --> 00:13:30,230 Josh: he's trading with this new portfolio. 228 00:13:30,550 --> 00:13:34,010 Josh: So let's say that semi stocks go down, right? 229 00:13:34,410 --> 00:13:37,270 Josh: Their stocks would also go down, right? Because they own the GPUs. 230 00:13:37,370 --> 00:13:40,970 Josh: But CoreWeave and these other companies own something else that NVIDIA currently 231 00:13:40,970 --> 00:13:42,130 Josh: doesn't have, which is... 232 00:13:42,790 --> 00:13:47,030 Josh: The power access. Remember, he invested in a bunch of these NeoClouds, 233 00:13:47,150 --> 00:13:49,090 Josh: not just because they can run GPUs. 234 00:13:49,130 --> 00:13:51,850 Josh: That's something that any data set it could do. You just need capital to do it. 235 00:13:51,950 --> 00:13:56,190 Josh: But more importantly, they have the licenses and access to existing energy grid 236 00:13:56,190 --> 00:13:58,850 Josh: infrastructure that can serve these GPUs. 237 00:13:58,950 --> 00:14:02,870 Josh: So he's playing both sides of the trade pretty intelligently through just a 238 00:14:02,870 --> 00:14:07,310 Josh: single company that can express both his interest in the power trade, 239 00:14:07,470 --> 00:14:10,390 Josh: but also his bearishness on the semis trade as well. 240 00:14:10,550 --> 00:14:14,070 Josh: Like he can have a win-win. And that makes sense because that's the companies 241 00:14:14,070 --> 00:14:16,130 Josh: that or type of companies that he's doubled down on. 242 00:14:16,230 --> 00:14:19,230 Josh: It's exactly these data center neocards that have access to power. 243 00:14:19,350 --> 00:14:21,450 Josh: It's a pretty smart trade. 244 00:14:21,690 --> 00:14:25,290 Ejaaz: And he's also doubled down on this fun little Easter egg on where you can actually 245 00:14:25,290 --> 00:14:27,290 Ejaaz: get this power and get this grid capability. 246 00:14:27,450 --> 00:14:30,770 Ejaaz: And those are Bitcoin mining companies. We talked about this briefly last quarter, 247 00:14:30,870 --> 00:14:32,090 Ejaaz: but he's going big on them again. 248 00:14:32,310 --> 00:14:38,230 Ejaaz: And this year, US Bitcoin miners are going to approximately put 30 gigawatts 249 00:14:38,230 --> 00:14:40,330 Ejaaz: of interconnected power capacity online. 250 00:14:40,630 --> 00:14:44,110 Ejaaz: That's roughly, I mean, for comparison, that's roughly the total amount of Microsoft, 251 00:14:44,330 --> 00:14:47,170 Ejaaz: Google, Amazon, and Meta combined in what they announced. 252 00:14:47,290 --> 00:14:50,690 Ejaaz: So this is a tremendous amount of data centers that they're putting online that 253 00:14:50,690 --> 00:14:51,770 Ejaaz: everyone's going to need. 254 00:14:51,990 --> 00:14:56,410 Ejaaz: And because people are kind of pivoting from Bitcoin to AI, they already have 255 00:14:56,410 --> 00:14:58,670 Ejaaz: a lot of the critical infrastructure. They have the power. 256 00:14:58,830 --> 00:15:02,550 Ejaaz: They have the data center's size. They have it built out. 257 00:15:02,670 --> 00:15:05,290 Ejaaz: All they need to do is swap in new chips that are built for AI, 258 00:15:05,350 --> 00:15:09,830 Ejaaz: and they're on their way. And that is a really unique, interesting case that 259 00:15:09,830 --> 00:15:12,090 Ejaaz: I don't think I've seen a lot of people explore other than Leopold. 260 00:15:12,170 --> 00:15:15,710 Ejaaz: It's just taking the Bitcoin pivot, the crypto pivot. A lot of Bitcoin miners, 261 00:15:15,870 --> 00:15:17,030 Ejaaz: they're there to follow the money. 262 00:15:17,150 --> 00:15:20,590 Ejaaz: And when the money's in AI and they could put 30 gigawatts online in a single 263 00:15:20,590 --> 00:15:22,090 Ejaaz: year, that's a huge amount. 264 00:15:22,470 --> 00:15:25,770 Josh: Yeah, when I zoom out from this, right, everything we've discussed so far, 265 00:15:25,890 --> 00:15:31,570 Josh: there's like a clear view that he's taking here, which is he's doubling down 266 00:15:31,570 --> 00:15:33,110 Josh: on physical infrastructure. 267 00:15:33,370 --> 00:15:35,210 Josh: He doesn't believe that can get commoditized. 268 00:15:36,090 --> 00:15:41,170 Josh: What he's saying, and this is a big statement, is he thinks the design layer 269 00:15:41,170 --> 00:15:44,850 Josh: of semiconductors, the chip side of things, is overcrowded. 270 00:15:45,030 --> 00:15:48,770 Josh: Now, may I remind everyone, NVIDIA doesn't actually make the chips. 271 00:15:48,990 --> 00:15:52,830 Josh: They're a design company. They create the design and they send the blueprints 272 00:15:52,830 --> 00:15:56,850 Josh: to this company in Taiwan called TSMC, and they actually manufacture and build 273 00:15:56,850 --> 00:15:58,190 Josh: the chips for them, right? 274 00:15:58,550 --> 00:16:02,670 Josh: Broadcom does the same thing. Intel creates CPUs and GPUs. AMD as well. 275 00:16:02,730 --> 00:16:05,950 Josh: These are two companies that he's short on this recent filing. 276 00:16:06,090 --> 00:16:08,790 Josh: But again they create the designs for these things 277 00:16:08,790 --> 00:16:11,550 Josh: they don't actually build the thing now intel and amd's intention is 278 00:16:11,550 --> 00:16:15,170 Josh: to eventually do this but they haven't got the necessary factories or infrastructure 279 00:16:15,170 --> 00:16:19,470 Josh: to be able to do this that's their plan in the next like five years so he's 280 00:16:19,470 --> 00:16:23,350 Josh: making an explicit bet which is like the design space for chips is overcrowded 281 00:16:23,350 --> 00:16:27,110 Josh: but the hardware infrastructure layer is where all the money is going and one 282 00:16:27,110 --> 00:16:30,990 Josh: thing that they need as a substrate more than anything is power and so he's making that bet. 283 00:16:31,520 --> 00:16:34,760 Ejaaz: Yeah. Okay. So we have this one section that talks about where the trade breaks, 284 00:16:35,040 --> 00:16:37,120 Ejaaz: where this thing can start to break down. 285 00:16:37,220 --> 00:16:42,180 Ejaaz: Now I mentioned earlier, AMD, he was short on, it's up 75%. That's got a sting. 286 00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:45,520 Ejaaz: Is this correct? And we have a few things listed here on where it breaks. 287 00:16:45,620 --> 00:16:49,440 Ejaaz: The first being around Nvidia, the largest short position through these two 288 00:16:49,440 --> 00:16:51,640 Ejaaz: holdings that he has of $1.9 billion. 289 00:16:52,460 --> 00:16:56,900 Ejaaz: And it could break in the sense that Nvidia's moat is actually stickier than he thinks. 290 00:16:57,040 --> 00:16:59,780 Ejaaz: So currently he's betting on the fact that Nvidia is going 291 00:16:59,780 --> 00:17:03,020 Ejaaz: to become kind of commoditized as it relates to chips likely that 292 00:17:03,020 --> 00:17:05,840 Ejaaz: other companies like google and amazon through their tpus or 293 00:17:05,840 --> 00:17:09,180 Ejaaz: their trinium chips are going to slowly start to chip away at 294 00:17:09,180 --> 00:17:12,040 Ejaaz: the nvidia monopoly and the reality is 295 00:17:12,040 --> 00:17:14,640 Ejaaz: that that may not be entirely true when you 296 00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:17,580 Ejaaz: see a lot of the purchase orders coming in when you look at the the margins that 297 00:17:17,580 --> 00:17:20,460 Ejaaz: they have around 80 on these gpus a lot 298 00:17:20,460 --> 00:17:23,440 Ejaaz: of the volume is still coming into nvidia and 299 00:17:23,440 --> 00:17:26,380 Ejaaz: a lot of that is due to this thing called kudo which is the platform lock-in 300 00:17:26,380 --> 00:17:29,800 Ejaaz: it's the software stack that runs on top of this hardware and 301 00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:32,600 Ejaaz: it's very custom it's very kind of niche and 302 00:17:32,600 --> 00:17:35,420 Ejaaz: the people that can build for it and there's a world in which that becomes a 303 00:17:35,420 --> 00:17:38,300 Ejaaz: pretty strong molt a moat in which people who are investing 304 00:17:38,300 --> 00:17:41,040 Ejaaz: in nvidia they don't want to leave people who are building 305 00:17:41,040 --> 00:17:44,300 Ejaaz: up these data centers it's just easy because they built it before and building 306 00:17:44,300 --> 00:17:47,500 Ejaaz: custom infra for all these new chips is going to be complicated is that 307 00:17:47,500 --> 00:17:50,220 Ejaaz: true or not we don't know anthropic is kind 308 00:17:50,220 --> 00:17:53,280 Ejaaz: of taking the route of it not being true they've partnered 309 00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:56,040 Ejaaz: with amazon for um for tranium chips they 310 00:17:56,040 --> 00:17:59,160 Ejaaz: partnered with google for tpus and they're using nvidia but 311 00:17:59,160 --> 00:18:02,040 Ejaaz: then you see a company like xai and colossus their entire data 312 00:18:02,040 --> 00:18:06,400 Ejaaz: center is purely nvidia gpus and just workhorses and they're taking the new 313 00:18:06,400 --> 00:18:08,960 Ejaaz: blackwell chips and they're building them up as fast as they can and they're 314 00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:11,480 Ejaaz: very much leaning into that coup de moat so it's something that we're gonna 315 00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:14,480 Ejaaz: have to see this is one of the thesis that that might play out but it could 316 00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:17,860 Ejaaz: be a little difficult and i mean again nvidia is the most valuable company in 317 00:18:17,860 --> 00:18:20,640 Ejaaz: the world this is a big company to start to fall apart now 318 00:18:21,050 --> 00:18:24,650 Josh: Yeah, I mean, we have NVIDIA GPUs that are six to eight years old that are being 319 00:18:24,650 --> 00:18:28,030 Josh: rented out a year in advance of their contract expiring, right? And people are paying. 320 00:18:28,030 --> 00:18:32,830 Ejaaz: For more value than they were years ago. So the old H100s from years ago are 321 00:18:32,830 --> 00:18:35,990 Ejaaz: actually worth more today than they were two years ago. That's unbelievable. 322 00:18:36,250 --> 00:18:40,070 Josh: I mean, Leopold's trading stock kind of reminds me of another trader that we 323 00:18:40,070 --> 00:18:43,530 Josh: spoke about a few months ago that got burned pretty badly, Michael Burry, 324 00:18:43,850 --> 00:18:49,070 Josh: who went incredibly perish on NVIDIA right at the point that the stock absolutely set. 325 00:18:49,070 --> 00:18:51,570 Josh: So I hope the same thing doesn't happen to Leopold. 326 00:18:51,710 --> 00:18:56,950 Josh: But to kind of like also pick apart at some of the other kind of like gaps in 327 00:18:56,950 --> 00:19:01,470 Josh: his potential thinking or risks here is Leopold runs a hedge fund, right? 328 00:19:01,730 --> 00:19:05,310 Josh: Situational awareness fund isn't a VC fund, which is typically like long only. 329 00:19:05,430 --> 00:19:10,170 Josh: It's actually kind of rare to see a hedge fund go super long as aggressively as he did, right? 330 00:19:10,490 --> 00:19:14,230 Josh: So the point being is what you see or what we're speaking about in the 13F filings, 331 00:19:14,350 --> 00:19:17,030 Josh: which is something that he has to submit, his trade breakdown, 332 00:19:17,450 --> 00:19:22,370 Josh: his investment portfolio, every three months, may not be the latest and greatest 333 00:19:22,370 --> 00:19:23,550 Josh: trades that he's currently made. 334 00:19:23,650 --> 00:19:26,690 Josh: In fact, today, as we're speaking about this, after he's filed the report at 335 00:19:26,690 --> 00:19:28,710 Josh: the end of March, he could have changed all these trades. 336 00:19:28,890 --> 00:19:33,850 Josh: He could have done completely something different, right? Another thing I think about is... 337 00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:38,380 Josh: When did he take these put positions? When did he take these specific positions? 338 00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:39,660 Josh: They could have been at the start of the year. 339 00:19:39,900 --> 00:19:41,940 Josh: And like, you know, the fund could have suffered pretty badly. 340 00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:45,300 Josh: Now, the obvious evidence to prove that this isn't the case is the fact that 341 00:19:45,300 --> 00:19:50,140 Josh: the value of his fund went from $5.5 billion three months ago to $14 billion. 342 00:19:50,380 --> 00:19:53,000 Josh: So the point is, he's made money. He's taken off money from the top. 343 00:19:53,120 --> 00:19:56,920 Josh: And it's important to point out that these put positions, these call positions, 344 00:19:57,120 --> 00:19:59,240 Josh: these are kind of like levered bets. 345 00:19:59,420 --> 00:20:02,620 Josh: So when we talk about an $8 billion put position in total, 346 00:20:02,620 --> 00:20:05,460 Josh: he's typically probably only put up like a billion dollars 347 00:20:05,460 --> 00:20:08,740 Josh: worth of actual capital right now he's also paying 348 00:20:08,740 --> 00:20:12,200 Josh: a lot of fees and premiums on that so it's like a short-term trade 349 00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:15,720 Josh: again i must say like he might have existed some of these trades already so 350 00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:18,480 Josh: if you're reading this if you listen to this and you're thinking oh my god i 351 00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:22,200 Josh: need to change my entire stock uh portfolio remember you may not necessarily 352 00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:25,860 Josh: be trading like him you're not doing short-term or high frequency trades you 353 00:20:25,860 --> 00:20:28,900 Josh: might be in it for the long term and that's a very different type of kind of 354 00:20:28,900 --> 00:20:30,400 Josh: like approach and maybe josh this 355 00:20:30,460 --> 00:20:33,560 Josh: is a good time to talk about what the retail audience can do about this and 356 00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:38,360 Josh: like what the actual thesis might be and where you might want to invest your money going forward. 357 00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:41,900 Ejaaz: Yeah. So we actually have some data to back this up through Polymarket, 358 00:20:42,140 --> 00:20:46,920 Ejaaz: which shows us that things might not be as bad as we're perceiving them because 359 00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:49,180 Ejaaz: again, retail is different than what he's doing. 360 00:20:49,420 --> 00:20:53,200 Ejaaz: I mean, Leopold is a trader. If you're a retail investor, things are a little bit different. 361 00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:56,700 Ejaaz: If you think that the AI bubble is going to pop and that's what this implies, 362 00:20:56,700 --> 00:20:58,980 Ejaaz: is according to Polymarket, that's sadly mistaken. 363 00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:04,480 Ejaaz: There's only a 24% chance of the AI bubble bursting by December 31st of this year. 364 00:21:04,780 --> 00:21:07,740 Ejaaz: Very low probability. There's also a second market that I wanted to highlight, 365 00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:11,340 Ejaaz: which shows the largest company by the end of May this month in a few more weeks. 366 00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:15,640 Ejaaz: Now, currently, NVIDIA is the largest company in the world, and they're pretty 367 00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:17,180 Ejaaz: closely followed by Google. 368 00:21:17,360 --> 00:21:20,780 Ejaaz: The reality is, though, according to Polymarket, there's still a 93% chance 369 00:21:20,780 --> 00:21:24,500 Ejaaz: that it stays this way, that NVIDIA is going to continue to take the crown throughout 370 00:21:24,500 --> 00:21:27,020 Ejaaz: the course of this month, And I think that's a testament to... 371 00:21:27,650 --> 00:21:32,530 Ejaaz: A little bit less volatility than he may be implying with these earnings and with this 13F filing. 372 00:21:32,710 --> 00:21:35,650 Ejaaz: So again, it's important to note that this is last quarter's news. 373 00:21:35,830 --> 00:21:37,550 Ejaaz: The tides have turned pretty considerably. 374 00:21:37,670 --> 00:21:40,810 Ejaaz: We don't know what's happened over the last couple of months that he's been 375 00:21:40,810 --> 00:21:44,350 Ejaaz: trading, but I think it's a good testament to the fact that things aren't quite 376 00:21:44,350 --> 00:21:46,270 Ejaaz: as bad as it may seem on the surface. 377 00:21:46,450 --> 00:21:51,050 Ejaaz: He's just applying a new strategy that kind of alters the trajectory of this portfolio. 378 00:21:51,250 --> 00:21:53,410 Ejaaz: And thank you to Polymarket for showcasing these charts. So yeah, 379 00:21:53,470 --> 00:21:57,290 Ejaaz: I guess we should get back to the question of how do you as a retail investor 380 00:21:57,290 --> 00:22:01,850 Ejaaz: adjust to this what is your strategy how do you navigate this are you bullish 381 00:22:01,850 --> 00:22:04,650 Ejaaz: are you bearish you just do you have any ideas on like kind of your your gut 382 00:22:04,650 --> 00:22:07,490 Ejaaz: take on how you personally plan to position yourself or how people should consider 383 00:22:07,490 --> 00:22:10,550 Ejaaz: positioning themselves around this new information so 384 00:22:10,550 --> 00:22:14,730 Josh: I'll give you two answers if i was someone who is kind of like new into this 385 00:22:14,730 --> 00:22:20,150 Josh: market um and is just reading leopold's 13f filing and are basing their trading 386 00:22:20,150 --> 00:22:23,550 Josh: decisions off of that, you would be tentative. 387 00:22:24,610 --> 00:22:28,210 Josh: This isn't a time to go crazy and go all in on a single stock. 388 00:22:28,210 --> 00:22:29,590 Josh: I would never advise that anyway. 389 00:22:30,150 --> 00:22:33,830 Josh: But the point is, I think he's being conservative for a reason, 390 00:22:33,970 --> 00:22:38,490 Josh: which is the market on average has probably run up a couple hundred percent over the last two years. 391 00:22:38,670 --> 00:22:42,470 Josh: And that in a regular stock market is absolutely huge. If you look at the major 392 00:22:42,470 --> 00:22:47,630 Josh: increases in the S&P 500, it has primarily been through five top companies in 393 00:22:47,630 --> 00:22:52,110 Josh: the Mac 7, which have all invested extremely heavily and aggressively in AI. 394 00:22:52,310 --> 00:22:56,690 Josh: And that money flows downstream into a lot of these companies that we've spoken about already. 395 00:22:56,730 --> 00:22:59,130 Josh: So he may just be suggesting that it is an overcrowded trade, 396 00:22:59,130 --> 00:23:01,530 Josh: so just be cautious and careful. That being said, 397 00:23:01,970 --> 00:23:06,770 Josh: I always have a bullish cap on, Josh. And where my mind goes to right now is 398 00:23:06,770 --> 00:23:09,190 Josh: in the power and energy side of things. 399 00:23:09,370 --> 00:23:13,830 Josh: Now, I'm aligned with Leopold on the Bloom Energies and the data centers side of things. 400 00:23:13,890 --> 00:23:17,570 Josh: In fact, I think it's genius that even if you invest in some of these top neocloud 401 00:23:17,570 --> 00:23:20,530 Josh: providers who are signing, by the way, multi-billion dollar deals with Anthropic 402 00:23:20,530 --> 00:23:24,390 Josh: and Meta, you still get to benefit if the semiconductor space goes down because 403 00:23:24,390 --> 00:23:25,510 Josh: they own the power capacity. 404 00:23:25,590 --> 00:23:28,770 Josh: That's something new that I've learned from this that I'm feeling extremely bullish on, right? 405 00:23:28,810 --> 00:23:32,090 Josh: So that's something that I might pop my money in, right? equally so, 406 00:23:32,290 --> 00:23:36,990 Josh: I'm looking at some of his short positions on the likes of companies such as 407 00:23:36,990 --> 00:23:41,230 Josh: Corning, which is also a bottleneck, right? It's on the optic side of things. 408 00:23:41,410 --> 00:23:44,770 Josh: And NVIDIA just signed a massive multi-billion dollar partnership with them, 409 00:23:44,810 --> 00:23:48,910 Josh: and he's short on them. So he's kind of picking and choosing which bottleneck that he wants. 410 00:23:49,430 --> 00:23:52,790 Josh: I'm kind of more bullish on power at this point, but I don't know if he's completely 411 00:23:52,790 --> 00:23:56,290 Josh: nailed it when it comes to some of these optical fiber networks and some of 412 00:23:56,290 --> 00:23:58,250 Josh: the other short positions that he has. I don't know. What about you? 413 00:23:58,870 --> 00:24:01,570 Ejaaz: Yeah, I think that, well, the general trend through all of this is, 414 00:24:01,750 --> 00:24:04,790 Ejaaz: for me at least personally, the way I think about navigating AI is that the 415 00:24:04,790 --> 00:24:06,890 Ejaaz: two most powerful, two most important things 416 00:24:07,550 --> 00:24:12,150 Ejaaz: our energy and the physical movement of these atoms, I think the physical world 417 00:24:12,150 --> 00:24:15,710 Ejaaz: is really difficult and complicated and moves much slower than the world of software. 418 00:24:15,890 --> 00:24:20,010 Ejaaz: And if anyone has a unique advantage around manufacturing, around actual construction, 419 00:24:20,170 --> 00:24:23,610 Ejaaz: around gaining the permits to put these things online, that is a huge structural advantage. 420 00:24:23,790 --> 00:24:26,310 Ejaaz: The second one is the energy. Everyone is desperate for energy. 421 00:24:26,710 --> 00:24:29,790 Ejaaz: Nobody wants to be the bad guy in kind of absorbing the data centers, 422 00:24:30,150 --> 00:24:34,130 Ejaaz: using data centers to absorb energy from normal people where they go into cities 423 00:24:34,130 --> 00:24:36,750 Ejaaz: and they kind of pull off the grid and energy prices go higher. 424 00:24:37,090 --> 00:24:39,770 Ejaaz: Everyone wants these two things. They want to be able to physically manufacture 425 00:24:39,770 --> 00:24:42,870 Ejaaz: things in a way that is cheap, easy, fast, efficient. 426 00:24:43,110 --> 00:24:46,110 Ejaaz: They want to be able to have abundance of energy. If there's a company that 427 00:24:46,110 --> 00:24:51,170 Ejaaz: has anything that slightly resembles a monopoly in either of these two categories, it's a huge win. 428 00:24:51,610 --> 00:24:53,830 Ejaaz: And it's probably something to invest in because they're durable. 429 00:24:54,110 --> 00:24:56,470 Ejaaz: On the chip stack, there's a lot of competition. 430 00:24:56,750 --> 00:25:01,730 Ejaaz: There are a lot of people competing directly with NVIDIA. We see it with Amazon and their chips. 431 00:25:01,910 --> 00:25:04,770 Ejaaz: We see it with Google and their TPUs. And there's a lot of other companies like 432 00:25:04,770 --> 00:25:08,490 Ejaaz: Cerebris, we mentioned last week, had their IPO and they have this brand new novel architecture. 433 00:25:08,790 --> 00:25:11,490 Ejaaz: There's a lot of competition there that might flatten margins a little bit. 434 00:25:11,610 --> 00:25:14,070 Ejaaz: Granted, they're still incredibly high, but there is a chance. 435 00:25:14,370 --> 00:25:18,410 Ejaaz: Now, in terms of what to look for moving forward, because these are a few things 436 00:25:18,410 --> 00:25:21,330 Ejaaz: that I'm going to be interested in, kind of fact-checking Leopold, 437 00:25:21,470 --> 00:25:23,410 Ejaaz: seeing if he's actually doing as well as he performs. 438 00:25:23,850 --> 00:25:27,290 Ejaaz: NVIDIA has their earnings coming up pretty soon, May 28th. 439 00:25:27,430 --> 00:25:31,050 Ejaaz: And if they guide above $78 billion dollars for the next quarter there's a pretty 440 00:25:31,050 --> 00:25:35,270 Ejaaz: good chance those puts get get crushed um they might not be doing too well so 441 00:25:35,270 --> 00:25:38,130 Ejaaz: we have these earnings reports that are coming towards the end of this month 442 00:25:38,130 --> 00:25:42,810 Ejaaz: we have amd has an analyst day in 2026 we have some pretty serious bloom energy 443 00:25:42,810 --> 00:25:44,670 Ejaaz: deployment milestones that we're going to look into 444 00:25:45,070 --> 00:25:48,170 Ejaaz: Those are going to be kind of checkpoints that we could then cross-check against 445 00:25:48,170 --> 00:25:50,290 Ejaaz: Leopold's portfolio to see if it is accurate. 446 00:25:50,590 --> 00:25:52,030 Ejaaz: But I think thematically, the 447 00:25:52,030 --> 00:25:54,890 Ejaaz: idea of energy and infrastructure are two that are not going to go away. 448 00:25:54,990 --> 00:25:57,650 Ejaaz: And when I'm investing and when I'm considering allocating my portfolio, 449 00:25:57,830 --> 00:25:59,970 Ejaaz: those are the two categories that I'm probably most interested in. 450 00:26:00,350 --> 00:26:04,950 Josh: Well, I probably then want to do a little bit of a victory lap for us because 451 00:26:04,950 --> 00:26:09,050 Josh: about a week and a half ago, maybe two weeks, you know, I don't want to brag too much. 452 00:26:09,710 --> 00:26:13,990 Josh: We did an episode that broke down where some of the top AI investment trades 453 00:26:13,990 --> 00:26:16,050 Josh: might potentially be in the future. 454 00:26:16,290 --> 00:26:19,690 Josh: And we went down this infrastructure stack, right? 455 00:26:19,770 --> 00:26:24,570 Josh: And we walked all the way from model labs flowing down to hyperscalers and AI 456 00:26:24,570 --> 00:26:29,030 Josh: platforms, such as the Mac 7 that I mentioned earlier, as well as these GPU semiconductors. 457 00:26:29,230 --> 00:26:32,950 Josh: And the point that we made on this episode was that the money is going to flow 458 00:26:32,950 --> 00:26:36,690 Josh: from these GPUs and semiconductor trades, so like the likes of NVIDIA, 459 00:26:36,850 --> 00:26:40,350 Josh: AMD, Broadcom, these are all companies, which by the way, he took out the massive shorts on, 460 00:26:40,610 --> 00:26:45,510 Josh: all the way down into the memory and storage layer and the power and infrastructure layer. 461 00:26:45,770 --> 00:26:49,350 Josh: And these are the companies where, you know, overall, he's going pretty bullish 462 00:26:49,350 --> 00:26:51,570 Josh: on, right? He's expressing it through NeoCloud's data centers. 463 00:26:51,690 --> 00:26:54,710 Josh: He's expressing it through SanDisk and specific kind of like memory verticals 464 00:26:54,710 --> 00:26:56,410 Josh: and power infrastructure companies. 465 00:26:56,510 --> 00:27:00,310 Josh: But the point is, we potentially may have called this earlier on, 466 00:27:00,330 --> 00:27:04,710 Josh: and we're just following along at Limitless where these different constraints 467 00:27:04,710 --> 00:27:09,590 Josh: and bottlenecks are, because it's very important to understand that AI isn't a one-to-one trade. 468 00:27:09,610 --> 00:27:13,090 Josh: You can certainly buy and hold a company such as media and maybe you're better 469 00:27:13,090 --> 00:27:16,950 Josh: off over the next decade I think directionally that's probably going to be true 470 00:27:16,950 --> 00:27:21,990 Josh: but you'd be remiss if you assume that it was just park your money in one sector and 471 00:27:22,210 --> 00:27:26,230 Josh: you're good the point is the money is flowing through this into AI is like kind 472 00:27:26,230 --> 00:27:30,510 Josh: of like a car you kind of like it ingests gasoline and like it uses it across 473 00:27:30,510 --> 00:27:34,170 Josh: all its entire infrastructure and then comes out the other end as exhaust fumes 474 00:27:34,170 --> 00:27:35,650 Josh: we are currently I don't know, 475 00:27:36,270 --> 00:27:38,710 Josh: two-thirds of the way through this car, Josh? I don't know. 476 00:27:39,190 --> 00:27:40,610 Ejaaz: We're making our way down the stack. 477 00:27:40,750 --> 00:27:43,110 Josh: We're making our way down the stack. And I just want to point out that, 478 00:27:43,110 --> 00:27:47,530 Josh: like, this isn't just, like, a thesis that we have, like, pulled out of thin air. 479 00:27:47,670 --> 00:27:49,170 Josh: It's based on actual factual numbers. 480 00:27:49,190 --> 00:27:53,130 Josh: Like, for example, memory prices are absolutely sky high right now. 481 00:27:53,230 --> 00:27:57,410 Josh: It's gone up on an average of 3% to 500% across all the top memory manufacturers 482 00:27:57,410 --> 00:27:59,410 Josh: over the last nine months. 483 00:27:59,570 --> 00:28:02,790 Josh: And if you look at any of their capacity, they're booked out for the next year, 484 00:28:02,950 --> 00:28:06,450 Josh: actually, until the end of 2027. So it's like a year and a half at this point. 485 00:28:06,630 --> 00:28:09,950 Josh: So these are very real numbers. Now, whether more supply will come out, 486 00:28:10,090 --> 00:28:13,210 Josh: whether more power generation kind of pops out of thin air, we don't know. 487 00:28:13,410 --> 00:28:16,710 Josh: But directionally, the bet that he's making is in line with our thesis that 488 00:28:16,710 --> 00:28:18,170 Josh: we have on the list. So that's pretty cool to see. 489 00:28:18,330 --> 00:28:21,150 Ejaaz: And if you've been tuned in, yeah, you're up to date. You know all these things 490 00:28:21,150 --> 00:28:23,630 Ejaaz: already. You're familiar with the AI stack. If you haven't seen this episode, 491 00:28:23,730 --> 00:28:26,050 Ejaaz: we released it last week. It performed really well. 492 00:28:26,310 --> 00:28:29,610 Ejaaz: So I would highly recommend going to check it out. We're going to continue covering 493 00:28:29,610 --> 00:28:32,950 Ejaaz: this, monitoring the situation. We had the Cerebrus IPO. 494 00:28:33,170 --> 00:28:37,750 Ejaaz: We now have Leopold's new filings. There's a lot of new coverage to talk about. 495 00:28:37,950 --> 00:28:43,110 Ejaaz: We have some funny memes as well. This one from Nick Carter that is using Leopold 496 00:28:43,110 --> 00:28:46,250 Ejaaz: as a joke that says, I don't want to play with you anymore. 497 00:28:46,390 --> 00:28:50,650 Ejaaz: He's kind of throwing away the AI industry because he's sick of them. 498 00:28:51,030 --> 00:28:54,970 Ejaaz: And this is a good one. The last thing Intel investors see before they panic 499 00:28:54,970 --> 00:28:58,490 Ejaaz: sell. Poor guy, man. Intel bulls. Intel bulls. He turned on you. 500 00:28:58,490 --> 00:29:00,070 Josh: I'm an Intel bull. He turned on me. 501 00:29:00,090 --> 00:29:02,690 Ejaaz: He made billions of dollars and then he slammed the cell phone and he said, 502 00:29:02,730 --> 00:29:04,690 Ejaaz: I'm done. I don't want you anymore. more. 503 00:29:04,950 --> 00:29:07,790 Ejaaz: So we'll see. We'll be following it. I mean, over the next couple of weeks in 504 00:29:07,790 --> 00:29:10,810 Ejaaz: particular, as we see these earnings reports roll out, as we start to see the 505 00:29:10,810 --> 00:29:14,870 Ejaaz: market reaction to this filing and the new narratives wind shift over to memory, 506 00:29:15,090 --> 00:29:16,210 Ejaaz: over to infrastructure and energy. 507 00:29:16,590 --> 00:29:20,550 Ejaaz: We'll just continue to monitor the situation. So thank you so much for joining. 508 00:29:20,650 --> 00:29:22,290 Ejaaz: I think that's a wrap on the 13F. 509 00:29:22,410 --> 00:29:25,250 Ejaaz: We kind of now are fully up to date. We know the new positions. 510 00:29:25,370 --> 00:29:26,950 Ejaaz: We know what he pulls on. We know what he's bearish on. 511 00:29:27,390 --> 00:29:30,070 Ejaaz: He just, what's the prompt for everyone? How should they kind of think about 512 00:29:30,070 --> 00:29:34,070 Ejaaz: navigating this as they leave this episode and go sit there and stare at their 513 00:29:34,070 --> 00:29:37,950 Ejaaz: portfolio and ponder what changes to be made? Do I need to react based on Leopold? 514 00:29:38,210 --> 00:29:41,470 Josh: So here's how I feel at the end of this episode, Josh. 515 00:29:41,730 --> 00:29:45,650 Josh: And here's what I'm going to prompt people to do. How I feel is I'm the biggest 516 00:29:45,650 --> 00:29:49,470 Josh: fan of Leopold. Don't get me wrong. I think he might have some stuff wrong here. 517 00:29:49,770 --> 00:29:53,790 Josh: So what I want people to point out in the comments is what part of Leopold's 518 00:29:53,790 --> 00:29:55,910 Josh: thesis do you disagree with? 519 00:29:56,170 --> 00:29:58,650 Josh: And let us know why you disagree with it. Because I think, like, 520 00:29:58,710 --> 00:30:02,270 Josh: I'm not going to speak on behalf of Josh, but I feel like a little unsettled, 521 00:30:02,270 --> 00:30:04,650 Josh: and I'm unsure whether Leopold knows what he's doing. 522 00:30:04,730 --> 00:30:07,890 Josh: In fact, I think given his trading breakdown, I think he doesn't know what he's 523 00:30:07,890 --> 00:30:09,310 Josh: doing either. He's playing it safe. 524 00:30:09,710 --> 00:30:13,490 Josh: So tell us what we're missing, and maybe Limitless will guess it or preempt 525 00:30:13,490 --> 00:30:14,830 Josh: it before it actually happens. 526 00:30:15,410 --> 00:30:17,690 Ejaaz: If you had to pick one thing that he's missing or he gets wrong, 527 00:30:17,870 --> 00:30:18,830 Ejaaz: do you have any top choice? 528 00:30:19,590 --> 00:30:21,010 Josh: NVIDIA. Why are you? 529 00:30:21,010 --> 00:30:22,030 Ejaaz: I was going to say the same thing. 530 00:30:22,150 --> 00:30:28,250 Josh: If NVIDIA goes down, all your stocks go down, dude. Like that's the way I see it. So yeah, NVIDIA. 531 00:30:28,350 --> 00:30:31,590 Ejaaz: Yeah, 1.9 billion short on NVIDIA seems a little suspect. I'm a little confused 532 00:30:31,590 --> 00:30:34,030 Ejaaz: what's going on there, especially because those margins are high. 533 00:30:34,390 --> 00:30:37,670 Ejaaz: Everyone needs Blackwell. We're just starting to get the early versions of those 534 00:30:37,670 --> 00:30:40,810 Ejaaz: Blackwell models. And if you'll remember, the first one that came out of it was Mythos. 535 00:30:41,130 --> 00:30:41,350 Josh: Yes. 536 00:30:41,350 --> 00:30:43,170 Ejaaz: Clearly, there's like a tremendous amount 537 00:30:43,170 --> 00:30:47,390 Ejaaz: of value stored up in the NVIDIA infrastructure stack in the software. 538 00:30:47,550 --> 00:30:49,830 Ejaaz: It is up only. It is the most valuable company in the world. 539 00:30:49,970 --> 00:30:53,470 Ejaaz: And to not continue to bet on the winners seems like a losing strategy. 540 00:30:53,470 --> 00:30:54,890 Ejaaz: But as always, we'll see. 541 00:30:55,270 --> 00:30:58,790 Ejaaz: We'll check in. We will stay up to date and we will keep all of you updated 542 00:30:58,790 --> 00:31:03,570 Ejaaz: in the loop every day as we follow this journey along the frontier of AI investing 543 00:31:03,570 --> 00:31:04,950 Ejaaz: and all of the crazy technologies. 544 00:31:05,170 --> 00:31:07,410 Ejaaz: So thank you all so much for watching. If you enjoyed this episode, 545 00:31:07,590 --> 00:31:08,750 Ejaaz: don't forget to share with a friend. 546 00:31:08,910 --> 00:31:12,110 Ejaaz: Don't forget to leave a comment on YouTube. perhaps give us a thumbs up and 547 00:31:12,110 --> 00:31:13,950 Ejaaz: a five star review on your favorite podcast player 548 00:31:14,730 --> 00:31:17,670 Ejaaz: With that, we're done. That's a wrap. You're now up to speed on Leopold. 549 00:31:17,810 --> 00:31:20,150 Ejaaz: Yeah. Do with this information what you will. 550 00:31:20,410 --> 00:31:23,670 Josh: Not financial investment advice at all. Yeah. All right. See you guys. 551 00:31:23,810 --> 00:31:25,170 Josh: All right. We'll see you guys in the next one. Peace.