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Welcome back to the second part of our
panel discussion on the grid connections

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podcast, looking at the year of 2023 and
our panel's predictions for what's coming

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for electric vehicles in the automotive
market in 2024.

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For those of you who may be streaming or
watching the podcast on YouTube or other

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channels, my apologies.

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I had to record this a little bit later at
night.

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So the lighting for this first intro part
and the outro today aren't the best, but

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for the actual panel, it'll be just like
last time.

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So there shouldn't be any issue there.

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So.

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Continuing where we left off with our
panel members, John McElroy of Autoline

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TV, Loren McDonald of EV Adoption, and
Matt Teske of Chargeway, we focus on the

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increasingly influential role of Chinese
EVs in shaping both the North American and

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global automotive markets.

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We explore how these vehicles are not only
changing the landscape of competition, but

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also setting new benchmarks in technology
and design.

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Our discussion then examines the pivotal
role of software and EVs.

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We examined software's profound impact on
consumer buying preferences, all tying it

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to the concept of what I like to call a
user-defined vehicle.

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Car design that leverages software first
and allows for a specific user to

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customize the car, however they find fit.

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Something becoming a deciding factor for
many younger buyers and in markets across

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the world.

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This really allows them to tailor their
electric vehicle experience to their

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specific needs and tastes.

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And I think that's a big part of where
we've seen the success in the startups is

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really putting this mindset first in car
design.

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However, the transition to software
centric vehicles is not without its

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challenges.

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We shed light on how legacy automakers are
grappling with integrating advanced

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software into their electric vehicle
designs.

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This shift from traditional automotive
engineering to a software driven approach

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presents both opportunities and obstacles
for established players in the industry.

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The panel also addresses a pertinent
question in the EV space.

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Should software recalls be still referred
to as recalls, or is a more appropriate

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term needed?

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This discussion leads to a broader
conversation about the communication

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challenges most EV automakers face.

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We delve into how these companies are
struggling to effectively convey

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information and updates to the public
about their electric vehicles and

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associated recalls.

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Finally, our panel shares their
predictions for the global electric

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vehicle market in 2024.

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They provide insights into emerging
trends, potential market shifts, and what

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consumers can expect in the near future.

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Tune into this engaging episode of the
Grid Connections podcast to get a

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comprehensive understanding of these
critical issues shaping the future of

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electric vehicles.

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Whether you're an EV enthusiast, industry
professional, or simply curious about the

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future of transportation, this panel
offers valuable perspectives and

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predictions, and

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You won't be able to find anywhere else.

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And with that, enjoy.

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And after I was, you guys talk about this
quite a bit about BYD and their

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competition, leaving Asia, now going into
Europe.

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How soon do you think that someone like
them is going to make a launch into North

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America?

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Well, you know, we're already seeing
Chinese vehicles in the U S they're just

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with, you know, familiar legacy brands.

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Right.

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But as you guys know, I mean, the Chinese,
a number of Chinese automakers and

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suppliers are just flooding into the
Mexican market.

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And, you know, they're clearly going to
use Mexico as their entry into the U.S.

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market.

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And they may not have to pay a tariff.

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You know, there's twenty seven point five
percent tariff on Chinese made vehicles

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coming into the U.S.

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So that would get rid of that.

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They may not qualify for IRA money.

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but their cost levels are such that they
probably don't even need it to be able to

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compete.

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So, NIO has said it will be in the US
market by 2025.

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Look, they're all watching next, or this
year's presidential election.

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You know, if Trump gets in, it's gonna be
a slow walk of Chinese automakers coming

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into the US market.

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But who knows?

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I mean,

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There's talk right now of boosting the
import tariff on Chinese vehicles to 40%.

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So even if Biden stays in, there's
bipartisan support to keep the Chinese out

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any way possible.

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But the US market, even though
volume-wise, it's smaller than China, it's

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far more lucrative.

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You can make a lot more money here than
you can in China.

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And so the Chinese automakers really see
no choice.

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If they want to be

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truly globally dominant, they've got to be
in the American market.

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Well, and I think that I'm just going to
say, I think it's going to be really

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interesting to see how the Volvo XC30
does.

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I mean, it's not going to come out till
probably middle of the year, mid to third

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quarter and stuff.

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But, you know, I think it's going to be
sort of a telling moment if consumers even

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care, like, you know, where the cars they
won't care, Lauren, they go, you can

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Yeah, the people that are complaining on
social media about Chinese made products

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are doing it on this device that's made in
China.

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That's right.

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Right.

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Well, but let's but let's be very, let's
be very clear and careful about that is

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the brands we're talking about right now.

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Volvo, Apple, they're not perceived.

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No, they're not.

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Right.

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And that's America.

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And so Neo BYD coming to the states, those
are fresh brands.

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that's going to be something that they do
actually have to tackle from an American

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branding perspective is if for any reason
that perception is different, it's a fresh

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new brand that no one's ever heard of,
just because Volvo manufactures a car in

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China or just because Apple manufactures
their phones in China, that's not how

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Americans perceive those products.

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They will then all say, what's BYD?

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What's NIO?

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Oh, it's a Chinese brand of vehicle.

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And it's a fresh brand and they're going
to have that narrative to actually contend

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with.

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I don't think it's going to be that
Americans are going to go, I don't see the

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difference.

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iPhone, no, I don't think that's gonna be
out of view in the Buick and Mark.

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I don't quite agree, Matt.

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Look at sales of the Buick and Vision.

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It's no secret that that's made in China.

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It sells just fantastic.

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It's an American brand.

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Correct.

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Again, that's my point, is Apple was
founded here in the United States.

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Volvo is seen as a Swedish brand by most
people that drive Volvos.

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They are not perceiving it, just simply
because it was made in China doesn't mean

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they understand that.

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Mach-E is made in Mexico right now.

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And if you ask a mock buyer, they're going
to go, that's it.

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It's made in Detroit.

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Is it?

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Well, it's an American product.

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It's a Ford.

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I mean, so this is a brand perception
discussion.

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Look at the sales success that the Chinese
are starting to have in Europe.

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And I think that's a litmus test for what
will happen in the American market.

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Europe is not the United States.

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I know, but just look at sales of MG in
the UK or Australia.

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I mean, they're after the races.

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And All not American.

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I

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So I think I think if you come into the US
market with a very good looking car with

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great technology that is substantially
cheaper, Americans are just going to go to

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it.

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And if you tell them it's Chinese, some
will.

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Yeah, I think a lot will.

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So we already see Tesla having a problem
being an American company with certain

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segments of the American populace for why
they won't buy it.

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And so that to me, again, it's a brand
positioning piece, is those brands like

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Neo and BYD need to be prepared to contend
with that.

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I mean, that is just a reality.

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To me, it sounds like back in the 70s and
80s, will people really buy Japanese cars?

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And then, are they really going to buy
Korean cars?

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And Americans just tend to go to who can
give them the best product at the lowest

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price.

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Or if it's positioned as being something
that is actually cool, to be totally

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blunt.

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I mean,

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I had this exchange this morning on
LinkedIn with somebody.

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They said, well, why are they sitting at
the lot?

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And I said, there's a variety of factors.

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But number one is people aren't clamoring
into buying cars that run on new fuel type

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they don't understand.

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I'm sticking to it, because I think
there's a lot of evidence to point to

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that.

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But they said, well, then why are Teslas
selling like crazy?

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That means your assertion doesn't make
sense.

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I said, Tesla is cool.

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They don't actually have a freaking idea
what they're buying.

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They want to have a Tesla.

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And then they find out after that, oh,
God, I have to figure out how to use this

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dumb thing.

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and one in five buyers in California went,
I'm done with an EV because I can't figure

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out how to do this.

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Americans, by sake of how they consume
products, oftentimes are based on FOMO or

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just this is cool, and they will justify
purchases emotionally around those

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factors.

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And so, Neo BYD, if they can, from a
branding perspective, pull that off, not

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as a Chinese company, but as a flash and
flare, badass new car company, then yes,

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they will have success.

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But if there is any element of this is not
an American company, in fact, it's from

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China, and what is China to us?

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Well, then you get into political
ramifications of that.

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So it's not as simple as just saying,
well, like Apple or Volvo, they're going

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to be fine.

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I don't think so.

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I think this is actually a perfect segue
to the third part of this, which is

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software.

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Because I think you're totally right,
Matt.

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At least for the short term, there is for
the brands that people know that are

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Chinese and they don't even know the
brand, there's going to be a lot of

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skepticism.

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But I think John hit it on the head with.

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Toyota, Honda, all these Japanese brands
that were coming in the 70s, they had kind

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of different negative connotations.

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There were still a lot of people between
the price, losing jobs, World War II, that

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they eventually overcame and are doing
very well.

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I think long term, it'll be fine.

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But the big thing- That took decades in
some cases, if we're being honest to

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ourselves.

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But they've got the- BYD is a company that
can make that.

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It's one thing to say elusive.

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I don't know if they're going to be here
in decades.

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BYD has the volume to-

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battle it out for decades.

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I think they can do that.

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They got Warren Buffett coming, baby.

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You're right.

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So yeah, maybe centuries.

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We'll see.

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But the big thing, too, then, is obviously
going back exactly to why do people buy

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Teslas?

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Software.

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They don't know that's why they're buying
it, but it's the experience.

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It's these now new forms of luxury.

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And who does software really well in new
EVs?

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Chinese car companies.

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And I think that's that will be that's how
they're doing it in Europe.

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To be honest, they obviously don't have, I
think, as much negative connotations to

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American buyers in Europe, but that's how
they're winning a lot is one price and

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then to functionality through software.

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And I think it'll take them longer.

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But I think.

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We've seen this story play out before,
that price, along with a better service.

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I mean, that's the big thing, is just
making it easier now.

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You look at some of these Chinese car
companies doing like Neo with the battery

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swapping technology, I don't think that
long term is gonna take off, but it at

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least gets the conversation started and
makes people open to.

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a different way, they see it's like, oh,
they're trying different things.

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They're an innovative car company.

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And I think the next big variable in this
is generational.

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I think once you get under 45, maybe even
50, they don't really care too much about

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whether it's it'd be nice if it was made
in America or there's the there's the

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prestige of like, oh, I have a German
luxury car.

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This is fancy or an ass.

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I mean, but once again, they're not
fighting in that space.

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00:11:17,897 --> 00:11:21,919
And so I think this is kind of a great way
to go into the segment,

237
00:11:22,960 --> 00:11:28,103
say around software being the big thing
that EVs and the automotive industry has

238
00:11:28,103 --> 00:11:29,263
to contend with?

239
00:11:29,484 --> 00:11:30,765
Well, software is massive.

240
00:11:30,765 --> 00:11:37,189
I think if Apple actually decided to use
their war chest to actually build a car

241
00:11:37,189 --> 00:11:40,891
and they put their software in that car
and they leveraged quality batteries and

242
00:11:40,891 --> 00:11:45,654
then said, we'll use the Naxx connector,
they would have a field day.

243
00:11:46,015 --> 00:11:49,157
But I think that they're also, I mean, Tim
Cook and others there are being practical

244
00:11:49,157 --> 00:11:51,198
around the idea of like, yeah, we just, we
don't build cars.

245
00:11:51,198 --> 00:11:52,579
That's not what we do.

246
00:11:53,560 --> 00:11:55,540
They're at least being practical in that
sense.

247
00:11:55,540 --> 00:11:59,321
But if they take their approach to
software and put it inside of a vehicle

248
00:11:59,321 --> 00:12:05,022
and it works as it does on your phone or
on your computer at home, yeah, they will

249
00:12:05,022 --> 00:12:06,942
own a lot in that conversation.

250
00:12:06,942 --> 00:12:12,204
And that's where I think that Google
getting into this space, I mean, they are,

251
00:12:12,204 --> 00:12:15,204
I've met with the Google team that does a
lot of what's happening on the automotive

252
00:12:15,204 --> 00:12:16,144
side of things.

253
00:12:16,144 --> 00:12:20,225
The reality is they look at what they're
doing and saying, well, we're building

254
00:12:20,225 --> 00:12:21,485
this the way that we know how.

255
00:12:21,722 --> 00:12:24,804
And if the auto sector needs it a certain
way for what their automotive application

256
00:12:24,804 --> 00:12:26,465
is, they need to tell us what that is.

257
00:12:26,465 --> 00:12:30,108
But the auto sector, candidly, doesn't
know what that is because they've never

258
00:12:30,108 --> 00:12:32,590
been software as part of their core
competency.

259
00:12:32,590 --> 00:12:33,991
They've always outsourced it.

260
00:12:33,991 --> 00:12:38,995
So you have a very capable company relying
on the feedback from another company that

261
00:12:38,995 --> 00:12:41,997
doesn't have an understanding of what they
need to compete with.

262
00:12:41,997 --> 00:12:45,520
So there is opportunity for a Chinese
brand, whether it's Neo, BYU or others to

263
00:12:45,520 --> 00:12:48,561
step in and say, well, boy, we do this
really well.

264
00:12:48,574 --> 00:12:51,535
And if they can package that within a
vehicle that is branded in a way that to

265
00:12:51,535 --> 00:12:56,576
your point, Chase, I don't disagree at all
that if you're under 50, 45 ish, you

266
00:12:56,576 --> 00:12:57,797
probably don't care.

267
00:12:57,797 --> 00:13:02,358
But as you go down in that age group, you
also go down on how much they can spend.

268
00:13:02,358 --> 00:13:03,779
And EVs don't cost $15,000.

269
00:13:03,779 --> 00:13:05,719
And that's totally true.

270
00:13:05,719 --> 00:13:09,481
But I think that is kind of one of the
advantages to the Chinese EVs is they

271
00:13:09,481 --> 00:13:12,081
traditionally are being the most price
competitive.

272
00:13:12,402 --> 00:13:16,145
So while look to a job point out, trying
to get those things into the states,

273
00:13:16,145 --> 00:13:17,686
there's going to be a big hurdle.

274
00:13:18,107 --> 00:13:21,390
So maybe this will be the twenty seven
predictions when we're talking about it

275
00:13:21,390 --> 00:13:22,131
more seriously.

276
00:13:22,131 --> 00:13:23,792
Two things on the software side.

277
00:13:23,792 --> 00:13:28,256
I think I don't know if everybody saw the
Jim Farley interview back.

278
00:13:28,256 --> 00:13:35,783
I think it was in the in the summertime
where he talked about the loose federation

279
00:13:35,783 --> 00:13:37,785
of suppliers and that.

280
00:13:38,346 --> 00:13:43,690
basically, they had 150 different I think
that was the number suppliers all writing

281
00:13:43,690 --> 00:13:45,832
their own software code.

282
00:13:46,132 --> 00:13:46,953
Right.

283
00:13:47,453 --> 00:13:55,901
And it was like, a the suppliers aren't
very good at it and be it's all different

284
00:13:55,901 --> 00:13:58,103
code and they have to try to bring it
together.

285
00:13:58,103 --> 00:14:03,547
And so now Ford is moving towards actually
writing the code for all of their, you

286
00:14:03,547 --> 00:14:06,249
know, components and stuff versus

287
00:14:06,434 --> 00:14:11,698
Tesla and the Chinese right Tesla was
started in Palo Alto, etc.

288
00:14:11,698 --> 00:14:15,782
in the in the heart of Silicon Valley, and
they designed the car with a blank sheet

289
00:14:15,782 --> 00:14:20,767
from the ground up hardware and software
to work together this the software

290
00:14:20,767 --> 00:14:23,490
engineers all work in the same building
etc.

291
00:14:23,490 --> 00:14:29,575
Oh, now they're in like two locations, but
basically, you know, it was software code

292
00:14:29,575 --> 00:14:31,437
that runs everything.

293
00:14:32,050 --> 00:14:37,133
And we've seen CEOs being fired of OEMs
because of software challenges and stuff.

294
00:14:37,133 --> 00:14:40,915
Like they're just so far behind on that.

295
00:14:40,915 --> 00:14:45,878
And then the second point is just really,
you know, just as, as both John and Matt

296
00:14:45,878 --> 00:14:50,621
talked about, what have the Chinese been,
been building for the last 20 years?

297
00:14:50,621 --> 00:14:55,004
Electronics, they make consumer
electronics, right?

298
00:14:55,004 --> 00:14:56,905
Hardware and software.

299
00:14:57,085 --> 00:14:58,065
And when they.

300
00:14:58,114 --> 00:15:01,555
the Chinese government decided
strategically that they were going to

301
00:15:01,555 --> 00:15:06,296
dominate EVs globally 15 or so years ago,
right?

302
00:15:06,356 --> 00:15:11,018
They basically invested in all these new
startups who did what, right?

303
00:15:11,058 --> 00:15:17,040
Made electronic new electronic products,
EVs from the ground up, right?

304
00:15:17,040 --> 00:15:18,280
Designing the soft.

305
00:15:18,280 --> 00:15:22,321
And so it's like where we have the legacy
automakers that are like.

306
00:15:23,214 --> 00:15:27,177
trying to figure out how all this stuff
works together and hire software

307
00:15:27,177 --> 00:15:29,379
engineers, something they've never done
before, right?

308
00:15:29,379 --> 00:15:30,960
Yeah, yeah.

309
00:15:32,762 --> 00:15:36,225
Well, they're using a parts of an approach
as they always have in a lot of ways.

310
00:15:36,225 --> 00:15:40,709
And I think the example you brought up of
Jim Farley and Chase and I talked about

311
00:15:40,709 --> 00:15:45,113
that in the last conversation he and I
had, that was a great moment of just

312
00:15:45,113 --> 00:15:49,837
candor and honesty around, it's like,
look, this is not something that we...

313
00:15:49,910 --> 00:15:52,453
do right now and we have a problem.

314
00:15:52,453 --> 00:15:56,079
So that's nice to hear that, all of the
transparency, but then it also begs the

315
00:15:56,079 --> 00:15:58,201
question, so what is your solution?

316
00:15:59,030 --> 00:16:03,733
And right now, to your point, it still
feels like it's like, well, it is a

317
00:16:03,733 --> 00:16:07,955
completely, it's a transition of their
corporate culture and mindset about how do

318
00:16:07,955 --> 00:16:09,536
we go about building our products.

319
00:16:09,536 --> 00:16:11,677
And that's like turning the Titanic into
the iceberg.

320
00:16:11,677 --> 00:16:13,278
I mean, that is tough.

321
00:16:13,458 --> 00:16:18,341
But to Ford's credit and Farley's credit,
I think they, among the legacy brands, are

322
00:16:18,341 --> 00:16:21,422
at least acknowledging this problem better
than others.

323
00:16:21,703 --> 00:16:25,765
But to your point, it doesn't mean the
application of that acknowledgement is

324
00:16:25,765 --> 00:16:26,545
being...

325
00:16:26,818 --> 00:16:30,279
done perfectly because then you still have
an F-150 Lightning coming to market and

326
00:16:30,279 --> 00:16:34,201
Lauren to your point kind of scratching
ahead of like, why wasn't that an Explorer

327
00:16:34,941 --> 00:16:38,043
or something else that you guys probably
could have sold more of because your truck

328
00:16:38,043 --> 00:16:39,544
buyers are not diving in.

329
00:16:39,544 --> 00:16:41,084
Which is so funny to me.

330
00:16:41,084 --> 00:16:42,125
Yeah, right.

331
00:16:42,125 --> 00:16:42,565
Yeah.

332
00:16:42,565 --> 00:16:47,908
So no, but I think that Lauren, that point
is I think very big and the more honesty

333
00:16:47,908 --> 00:16:52,250
we can see from the legacy brands around
that would be, you know, refreshing, but I

334
00:16:52,250 --> 00:16:53,250
don't think we're going to see it.

335
00:16:53,250 --> 00:16:56,552
And I think there's going to be more of a
very bumpy uphill road.

336
00:16:56,552 --> 00:17:00,673
for a lot of them having to acknowledge
and then pivot and the pivot may not

337
00:17:00,673 --> 00:17:03,354
again, as you said earlier, Lauren, it is
reactionary.

338
00:17:03,354 --> 00:17:05,795
It is not proactive on their part.

339
00:17:05,815 --> 00:17:11,817
It's also what the South Korean companies
are going to do well as well was because

340
00:17:11,817 --> 00:17:19,459
they're much more software, electronics
sort of oriented and stuff and are newer,

341
00:17:19,459 --> 00:17:19,759
right?

342
00:17:19,759 --> 00:17:23,521
They have different cultures and can move
more quickly as well and stuff.

343
00:17:23,861 --> 00:17:26,141
And we're already seeing it with the

344
00:17:26,486 --> 00:17:31,054
just the charging curves on the Hyundai
Motor Group vehicles, right?

345
00:17:31,054 --> 00:17:31,975
They just crush it.

346
00:17:31,975 --> 00:17:35,161
They have the best, you know, sort of
charging capabilities.

347
00:17:35,161 --> 00:17:35,981
Oh,

348
00:17:36,194 --> 00:17:40,696
Well, yeah, the way they've approached it
from a voltage perspective was they were

349
00:17:40,696 --> 00:17:45,278
the only other outside of Porsche, Taycan,
and Lucid, they were the first to say,

350
00:17:45,278 --> 00:17:47,999
we're switching 800, 900 volt and we're
going to do it differently.

351
00:17:47,999 --> 00:17:50,160
I think it's proven to be effective for
them.

352
00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:52,741
There's some gaps they even have in their
software and cars still.

353
00:17:52,741 --> 00:17:58,084
I mean, for my friends that have IONIQ 5s
and EV 6s, but to your point, also even

354
00:17:58,084 --> 00:18:01,125
from again, I think that branding
conversation we were having earlier is

355
00:18:01,125 --> 00:18:05,787
they didn't have really any baggage around
who they were as a brand going into the EV

356
00:18:05,787 --> 00:18:06,368
conversation.

357
00:18:06,368 --> 00:18:07,869
I'd kind of push back on that.

358
00:18:07,869 --> 00:18:11,711
Kia especially has connotations of being
kind of a...

359
00:18:11,711 --> 00:18:12,332
Oh, cheap.

360
00:18:12,332 --> 00:18:14,173
Yeah.

361
00:18:14,173 --> 00:18:16,294
But it still has that with most consumers.

362
00:18:16,294 --> 00:18:17,215
I was having this conversation...

363
00:18:17,215 --> 00:18:17,315
Sure.

364
00:18:17,315 --> 00:18:22,458
I mean, we were having this conversation
right before the podcast, Matt, about the

365
00:18:22,458 --> 00:18:26,901
previous one where it was a consumer who
was like, well, that's cool that it can do

366
00:18:26,901 --> 00:18:27,262
all that charging.

367
00:18:27,262 --> 00:18:27,422
Oh, yeah.

368
00:18:27,422 --> 00:18:28,022
Oh, but it's a Kia.

369
00:18:28,022 --> 00:18:29,803
But it's a Kia.

370
00:18:29,803 --> 00:18:34,947
When I said baggage, I mean, the customers
they've cultivated, that's the lack of

371
00:18:34,947 --> 00:18:35,767
baggage.

372
00:18:36,048 --> 00:18:39,550
They were able to pivot positioning on
their brand and frankly to the designs

373
00:18:39,550 --> 00:18:40,490
they have.

374
00:18:40,490 --> 00:18:46,334
I mean, IONIQ 5, EV6, most people that see
them are like, that's a cool car.

375
00:18:46,334 --> 00:18:47,455
And they've done a good job with that.

376
00:18:47,455 --> 00:18:50,897
I think that combined with their
technology and they didn't have to

377
00:18:50,897 --> 00:18:54,039
reconvince the public on, think of this a
little bit different.

378
00:18:54,039 --> 00:18:58,561
Hey, you've been buying a gas 350, F350
from us for 30 years.

379
00:18:58,561 --> 00:19:00,122
How about this electric 150?

380
00:19:00,202 --> 00:19:05,478
I mean, I think that helped them in some
ways and they've leveraged that very well.

381
00:19:05,478 --> 00:19:09,259
Just one quick sort of follow up anecdote
on Kia.

382
00:19:09,259 --> 00:19:16,363
I mean, I 100% agree with you, but they're
also surprisingly, like I have my best

383
00:19:16,363 --> 00:19:20,825
buddy is like a longtime, high end car
buyer, right?

384
00:19:20,825 --> 00:19:25,026
You know, Porsche's he's got, you know,
Land Rovers, etc.

385
00:19:25,207 --> 00:19:31,509
And we were texting after the Lucid came
out with the gravity, right?

386
00:19:31,618 --> 00:19:34,760
Because he's a big, huge three row SUV
guy.

387
00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:36,181
That's all he buys, right?

388
00:19:36,181 --> 00:19:41,985
And he goes, yeah, that and the, the Kia
EV, EV nine, like, and I'm like, I about

389
00:19:41,985 --> 00:19:43,566
fell out of my chair.

390
00:19:44,747 --> 00:19:45,748
Right.

391
00:19:45,748 --> 00:19:51,672
Is that a, you know, I think they have
made some successful inroads with more

392
00:19:51,672 --> 00:19:55,555
like traditional, like car people, maybe
not average buyers.

393
00:19:55,555 --> 00:19:58,570
And I think it is, it's like, when you
think of Kia,

394
00:19:58,570 --> 00:20:01,893
And obviously, and John, you kind of even
talked about this on Autoline after I was

395
00:20:01,893 --> 00:20:05,857
a couple times about bringing in the
former head of M at BMW, making a much

396
00:20:05,857 --> 00:20:06,578
more sporty brand.

397
00:20:06,578 --> 00:20:11,983
But I think especially between their ICE
vehicles and then their EVs, I think the

398
00:20:11,983 --> 00:20:14,666
EV side of stuff, they've done a pretty
good job of even kind of like how Tesla

399
00:20:14,666 --> 00:20:14,846
did.

400
00:20:14,846 --> 00:20:17,188
Like you offer this car, you have three
different variants.

401
00:20:17,188 --> 00:20:19,810
Here's the sport version.

402
00:20:19,911 --> 00:20:22,993
And I think this all ties back kind of to
the software.

403
00:20:23,226 --> 00:20:30,148
And one of the things that on yesterday's
episode of Auto Line After Hours about

404
00:20:30,148 --> 00:20:35,970
kind of how some of the traditional
automakers are approaching software that I

405
00:20:35,970 --> 00:20:38,491
thought was really interesting was the
conversation about like, oh yeah, we've

406
00:20:38,491 --> 00:20:39,371
always done software.

407
00:20:39,371 --> 00:20:40,852
We've always had people.

408
00:20:41,072 --> 00:20:45,613
And that's true from like a vendor
standpoint, I thought, but the big thing.

409
00:20:46,090 --> 00:20:49,012
to me that's made the big difference is
kind of what we're talking about here.

410
00:20:49,012 --> 00:20:52,674
It's to like the Rivian, it's to the Tesla
that's got dog mode.

411
00:20:52,734 --> 00:20:57,117
It's no longer taking it to being software
being something that provides a function

412
00:20:57,117 --> 00:20:58,318
in the background.

413
00:20:58,318 --> 00:21:01,581
It is now becoming something the user
directly experiences.

414
00:21:01,581 --> 00:21:03,122
It's not like, Oh, I'm going to change.

415
00:21:03,122 --> 00:21:05,203
Uh, this is all software in the
background.

416
00:21:05,203 --> 00:21:09,306
That's changing from gears to make the car
more fuel efficient that the user never

417
00:21:09,306 --> 00:21:09,827
knows about.

418
00:21:09,827 --> 00:21:14,274
It's about making it much more, uh, actual
consumer forward.

419
00:21:14,274 --> 00:21:17,615
And I think that's where Tesla, the
startups, and especially the Chinese

420
00:21:17,615 --> 00:21:22,297
automakers have been very successful in
software, is realizing they don't really

421
00:21:22,297 --> 00:21:30,160
care about sometimes like this software or
this line of code doing XYZ getting 3%.

422
00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:32,661
It's like, oh, I have dog mode in my car.

423
00:21:32,661 --> 00:21:35,243
And as silly of a thing as that is, that's
a new luxury.

424
00:21:35,243 --> 00:21:37,083
And this is something I talk about all the
time.

425
00:21:37,083 --> 00:21:41,485
My wife even says she won't consider a car
now if it doesn't have a feature like dog

426
00:21:41,485 --> 00:21:42,245
mode.

427
00:21:42,374 --> 00:21:46,580
And these are like the new generational
and luxury features that the Rivians, the

428
00:21:46,580 --> 00:21:50,106
Teslas of the world, and there are other
companies doing it.

429
00:21:50,106 --> 00:21:54,052
But if they don't have, and I think even
the auto industry is...

430
00:21:54,922 --> 00:22:00,723
I'm now going on a huge drive here, but
once again, like to Lee, who from Sino

431
00:22:00,723 --> 00:22:03,783
Auto Insights, who we've had on the
podcast and I originally came from your

432
00:22:03,783 --> 00:22:08,764
program, John, was talking about like the
auto industry has now started talking

433
00:22:08,764 --> 00:22:10,285
about the software defined vehicle.

434
00:22:10,285 --> 00:22:11,745
And I think that's a big misstep.

435
00:22:11,745 --> 00:22:16,626
And I agree with them because it's really
about the user defined vehicle, software

436
00:22:16,626 --> 00:22:17,746
defined for sure.

437
00:22:17,746 --> 00:22:19,907
That's like kind of how you build a system
approach it.

438
00:22:19,907 --> 00:22:23,367
But really, if you want to build a car
that people are interested in, buy is the

439
00:22:23,367 --> 00:22:24,827
user defined vehicle.

440
00:22:24,948 --> 00:22:29,989
And that means a good app, good features
for the dogs or whoever.

441
00:22:30,209 --> 00:22:35,071
And that is really what's changing and
making, I think, a lot of these soft car

442
00:22:35,071 --> 00:22:37,212
companies that are having challenges with
software.

443
00:22:37,212 --> 00:22:40,793
And since I realized we're kind of going
over time as it is, I think it's time we

444
00:22:40,793 --> 00:22:46,095
dropped the Chevy blazer bomb and talk
about how they're having their own

445
00:22:46,095 --> 00:22:50,997
software issues and John, I'm curious if
there's anything that you can share from

446
00:22:50,997 --> 00:22:52,870
kind of being maybe.

447
00:22:52,870 --> 00:22:55,811
in the Detroit area, or just anything
you've kind of heard or your thoughts

448
00:22:55,811 --> 00:22:56,391
about this.

449
00:22:56,391 --> 00:22:58,092
No, I haven't heard anything different.

450
00:22:58,092 --> 00:23:01,553
I haven't heard anything different than
I'm sure you guys have heard.

451
00:23:01,553 --> 00:23:02,914
It's a disaster.

452
00:23:03,774 --> 00:23:08,977
The whole Altium program is a disaster.

453
00:23:08,977 --> 00:23:13,018
If you go back two years ago, I thought,
wow, GM, they've got their act together,

454
00:23:13,018 --> 00:23:16,600
clean sheet design, totally new from the
ground up.

455
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:20,541
I thought by this time, they would be
leading the charge amongst the legacies.

456
00:23:20,794 --> 00:23:25,115
I mean, they're barely a step ahead of
Volkswagen and Cariad in this regard.

457
00:23:25,235 --> 00:23:28,115
And it's got to be hugely embarrassing.

458
00:23:28,116 --> 00:23:32,997
And it comes down to, as you guys know,
it's a 110 year old company.

459
00:23:32,997 --> 00:23:37,498
They have 110 years worth of policies and
procedures that are not stupid.

460
00:23:37,498 --> 00:23:41,139
They're there because they got burned in
the past for something and they patched it

461
00:23:41,139 --> 00:23:44,740
with a policy or a procedure to make sure
that didn't happen again, especially when

462
00:23:44,740 --> 00:23:46,600
it comes to safety systems.

463
00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:49,161
And so you've got that ingrained in them.

464
00:23:49,201 --> 00:23:50,381
And, you know,

465
00:23:50,622 --> 00:23:54,624
This is why we'll see if Doug Field at
Ford can pull it off.

466
00:23:54,744 --> 00:23:58,586
But I think it was smart of Farley to go,
hey, guess what, we're not going with any

467
00:23:58,586 --> 00:24:01,928
legacy person to run all our electric and
software stuff.

468
00:24:01,928 --> 00:24:02,868
We're going to the Valley.

469
00:24:02,868 --> 00:24:06,711
Somebody who's been at Tesla, somebody
who's been at Apple, somebody who started

470
00:24:06,711 --> 00:24:08,812
at Segway.

471
00:24:08,932 --> 00:24:11,173
And that's what it takes.

472
00:24:11,173 --> 00:24:15,596
You need a startup or a Valley mentality
to do this.

473
00:24:15,596 --> 00:24:19,457
I don't care how good you are as a legacy
executive.

474
00:24:19,510 --> 00:24:20,370
You can't run it.

475
00:24:20,370 --> 00:24:21,670
You just can't do it.

476
00:24:23,292 --> 00:24:28,074
It's like trying to argue that the train
companies should have recognized that they

477
00:24:28,074 --> 00:24:31,096
were transportation companies.

478
00:24:31,096 --> 00:24:34,458
And if they had done that, they could have
competed in the automotive industry.

479
00:24:34,458 --> 00:24:36,999
And it's like, no, they were great train
companies.

480
00:24:36,999 --> 00:24:39,400
They were never going to make that
transition.

481
00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:45,684
And so you're never going to have a legacy
automaker successfully transform itself

482
00:24:45,684 --> 00:24:49,585
into a software company, which is
essentially what Tesla is.

483
00:24:49,982 --> 00:24:57,649
John, I'm just curious your thoughts on,
you know, so far, they came out and

484
00:24:57,649 --> 00:25:02,773
divided the company into Model E and blue,
right?

485
00:25:03,354 --> 00:25:09,159
But it's fundamentally, it's still Ford,
right?

486
00:25:09,159 --> 00:25:14,404
Like, and, and I would be curious in your
thoughts, something I've been thinking

487
00:25:14,404 --> 00:25:16,502
about a lot lately is

488
00:25:16,502 --> 00:25:19,884
You know, everybody bitches and complains
about the, okay, they're going to lose $3

489
00:25:19,884 --> 00:25:22,385
billion a year and EVs and stuff like
that.

490
00:25:22,385 --> 00:25:26,508
Well, as you said, I mean, Tesla lost
billions and billions of dollars for

491
00:25:26,508 --> 00:25:29,890
years, Lucid is going to lose billions and
billions of dollars.

492
00:25:30,051 --> 00:25:33,913
Rivian is going to lose billions and
billions of dollars a year until they get

493
00:25:33,913 --> 00:25:37,796
the volume up to, as you said, you know,
it's hundreds of thousands a year.

494
00:25:38,096 --> 00:25:43,079
And then all that investment of billions
in factories and people and getting the

495
00:25:43,079 --> 00:25:46,378
thing going, they're going to break even
and make, make a profit.

496
00:25:46,378 --> 00:25:54,224
like should have Ford actually created a
model E as a true separate entity as a

497
00:25:54,224 --> 00:26:00,529
startup and gone to the capital markets,
gone public raised capital and, you know,

498
00:26:00,529 --> 00:26:06,393
bring some people over, but, but
fundamentally creating a new, new company

499
00:26:06,554 --> 00:26:11,334
and go to town, you know, you know,
Lauren, I thought that he might do that.

500
00:26:11,334 --> 00:26:14,174
And there's two other things that you're
probably not even thinking of that would

501
00:26:14,174 --> 00:26:16,595
give them a massive advantage of that.

502
00:26:16,595 --> 00:26:24,317
If you organized Ford Model E as this
standalone electric company, I think

503
00:26:24,317 --> 00:26:26,718
legally you could get around dealer
franchise.

504
00:26:26,718 --> 00:26:27,758
Right.

505
00:26:28,258 --> 00:26:34,400
And number two, I think you could say
goodbye to the UAW and make sure that you

506
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:37,341
set up in an area that is anti-union.

507
00:26:38,201 --> 00:26:40,322
I'll bet they talked about that.

508
00:26:40,322 --> 00:26:48,206
But they talked about that in depth and
just couldn't pull the trigger.

509
00:26:48,206 --> 00:26:53,129
It seemed more like the way they publicly
positioned it was exactly what you're

510
00:26:53,129 --> 00:26:54,650
talking about, that it's going to be a
separate company.

511
00:26:54,650 --> 00:26:57,291
But in reality, it's like Google becoming
Alphabet.

512
00:26:57,291 --> 00:26:59,913
It was really more for a wall-street tax
benefits.

513
00:26:59,913 --> 00:27:04,255
Yeah, it was really like for the CFO to
just report two different lines of

514
00:27:09,706 --> 00:27:13,107
Yeah, because I haven't really thought
about it much until the news recently when

515
00:27:13,107 --> 00:27:14,808
they were talking about like, oh, we're
going to do hybrids again.

516
00:27:14,808 --> 00:27:19,771
It's like, so is that 40 or four blue or
is there going to be now four hybrid or

517
00:27:19,771 --> 00:27:20,992
like what?

518
00:27:20,992 --> 00:27:21,912
Where is it?

519
00:27:22,833 --> 00:27:23,753
It really is.

520
00:27:23,753 --> 00:27:24,294
Yeah, exactly.

521
00:27:24,294 --> 00:27:25,414
It's like four.

522
00:27:25,414 --> 00:27:25,935
Great.

523
00:27:25,935 --> 00:27:26,615
Exactly.

524
00:27:26,615 --> 00:27:27,616
It's in the middle.

525
00:27:27,616 --> 00:27:28,276
Yeah.

526
00:27:28,276 --> 00:27:33,119
Well, I think I think we're speaking to is
a big part of the mentality that a lot of

527
00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:36,701
the legacies have used over from a
communications perspective and kind of how

528
00:27:36,701 --> 00:27:38,518
they position themselves to the last.

529
00:27:38,518 --> 00:27:43,280
10, 20, 30, 40 years, which is we are
going to come out with a press release

530
00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:45,340
that is going to show that we are
competing.

531
00:27:45,621 --> 00:27:50,923
And then in various ways, as the onion
gets peeled back over time, you realize

532
00:27:50,923 --> 00:27:53,704
what level of depth was there into what
they were doing.

533
00:27:53,704 --> 00:27:58,406
And John, I think your point about how
where Ultium has landed, I'll be honest,

534
00:27:58,406 --> 00:28:01,907
when Ultium Day happened right before
COVID hit, I had plenty of friends there.

535
00:28:01,907 --> 00:28:03,488
Lauren, I think you were there.

536
00:28:04,008 --> 00:28:06,129
And I remember just watching all the news.

537
00:28:06,129 --> 00:28:07,158
I thought to myself,

538
00:28:07,158 --> 00:28:09,420
this all looks like fluff.

539
00:28:09,420 --> 00:28:10,220
I completely agree.

540
00:28:10,220 --> 00:28:15,065
Like this doesn't look like, I don't get
the sense that there is an embraced

541
00:28:15,065 --> 00:28:16,907
understanding of what this is.

542
00:28:16,907 --> 00:28:19,329
I feel like this is a very good marketing
day.

543
00:28:19,329 --> 00:28:20,090
Exactly.

544
00:28:20,090 --> 00:28:24,093
And I always felt, okay, then let's see
the meat on the bone.

545
00:28:24,093 --> 00:28:26,435
Like what's gonna happen with Ultium over
time?

546
00:28:26,435 --> 00:28:30,159
And John, I think you did a very good job
just kind of explaining the painful

547
00:28:30,159 --> 00:28:33,194
realities of where things landed at the
end of 2023, which is.

548
00:28:33,194 --> 00:28:34,775
And again, the word use was embarrassing.

549
00:28:34,775 --> 00:28:37,637
And I think, yeah, to a certain extent,
that's kind of just how it has to feel at

550
00:28:37,637 --> 00:28:38,018
some point.

551
00:28:38,018 --> 00:28:42,301
And I mean, I've said this to friends in
the industry for the last year or two is

552
00:28:42,301 --> 00:28:44,402
I'm very over press releases.

553
00:28:44,583 --> 00:28:47,005
I don't want to hear what you're planning
on.

554
00:28:47,005 --> 00:28:49,247
I want you to show us what you've done.

555
00:28:49,247 --> 00:28:52,890
And there's not a lot of that from the
legacy side in many ways.

556
00:28:52,890 --> 00:28:57,186
And I think it's starting to just, you
know, if you don't have substance.

557
00:28:57,186 --> 00:28:58,906
people are gonna call BS on it.

558
00:28:58,906 --> 00:29:02,987
I think that's what I was surprised most
about the Ultium announcement was like, I

559
00:29:02,987 --> 00:29:08,049
saw it seemed much more to marketing to me
than like engineering.

560
00:29:08,049 --> 00:29:11,149
Look, it was a message to Wall Street.

561
00:29:11,149 --> 00:29:12,130
For sure, for sure.

562
00:29:12,130 --> 00:29:16,651
All these executives are compensated to a
bunch of different things, right?

563
00:29:16,651 --> 00:29:16,871
For sure.

564
00:29:16,871 --> 00:29:19,051
But one thing is boosting the stock price.

565
00:29:19,192 --> 00:29:24,173
And if two, three years ago you said, hey,
guess what, we're doing EVs too, kablamo.

566
00:29:24,173 --> 00:29:26,194
You gotta pop on the stock price.

567
00:29:26,194 --> 00:29:28,595
And so that's what all that messaging was
about.

568
00:29:28,595 --> 00:29:30,836
But I'd add one more thing to Matt.

569
00:29:30,977 --> 00:29:36,280
I think a lot of these executives have
been learning.

570
00:29:36,341 --> 00:29:37,781
Certainly I have.

571
00:29:37,962 --> 00:29:42,645
As I've dug deeper and deeper into Tesla,
there's another layer to the onion.

572
00:29:42,645 --> 00:29:45,006
You keep peeling it back and learning more
and more.

573
00:29:45,247 --> 00:29:48,389
I think if you go back three, four years
ago, when a lot of these decisions were

574
00:29:48,389 --> 00:29:51,811
being made five years ago, they didn't
know.

575
00:29:51,811 --> 00:29:54,473
They didn't know they had to do
software-defined vehicles.

576
00:29:55,058 --> 00:29:56,678
didn't know they had to do that.

577
00:29:56,678 --> 00:30:02,962
You know, they were just playing around
with digital twins and things like that.

578
00:30:02,962 --> 00:30:06,664
Now, they had technical people who knew
that, but I'm talking about the people at

579
00:30:06,664 --> 00:30:07,744
the top.

580
00:30:07,824 --> 00:30:11,826
You know, they know the legacy business
inside out and backwards.

581
00:30:11,826 --> 00:30:16,629
They had no idea that this tsunami of
technology was about to overrun them, and

582
00:30:16,629 --> 00:30:18,769
they just haven't known how to react to
it.

583
00:30:19,918 --> 00:30:21,618
No, I think you're spot on that.

584
00:30:21,618 --> 00:30:24,919
And kind of what I mentioned earlier, that
four factor aspect of what makes a

585
00:30:24,919 --> 00:30:27,840
positive EV ownership or production
experience.

586
00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:29,640
They really know the inside and outside of
the car.

587
00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:31,621
That's what that is what they do.

588
00:30:31,621 --> 00:30:35,702
But aside from that, they've been
mechanical engineering experts for a

589
00:30:35,702 --> 00:30:36,642
century.

590
00:30:36,642 --> 00:30:40,203
And then they've lumped software as needed
on top of that.

591
00:30:40,243 --> 00:30:44,664
And then they've leveraged infrastructure
from fossil fuels for a century.

592
00:30:44,664 --> 00:30:48,145
So they really, to your point, John, they
weren't comprehensively thinking about it

593
00:30:48,145 --> 00:30:48,945
that way.

594
00:30:49,174 --> 00:30:50,494
We build cars.

595
00:30:50,494 --> 00:30:55,196
So let's get a battery, and we'll put a
gigantic battery in this car, and then we

596
00:30:55,196 --> 00:30:56,816
will make it so it starts.

597
00:30:56,816 --> 00:30:58,597
And we got dealers that can sell them.

598
00:30:58,597 --> 00:31:00,277
And then we'll say, look what we did.

599
00:31:00,277 --> 00:31:01,098
It's amazing.

600
00:31:01,098 --> 00:31:04,179
And to your point, that was so surface
level of understanding of what they

601
00:31:04,179 --> 00:31:05,039
actually had to be building.

602
00:31:05,039 --> 00:31:07,740
And I think that's one part of it.

603
00:31:07,740 --> 00:31:11,381
Honestly, the thing that stood out to me
was the announcement of the engineering of

604
00:31:11,381 --> 00:31:12,021
what they were doing.

605
00:31:12,021 --> 00:31:12,841
I was like,

606
00:31:13,466 --> 00:31:16,647
So many people were like, oh, this Ultium
thing, it's going to change everything.

607
00:31:16,647 --> 00:31:17,608
It's going to have all these things.

608
00:31:17,608 --> 00:31:21,971
And every time they talked about what the
Ultium battery pack was, I was like,

609
00:31:21,971 --> 00:31:22,891
there's nothing new here.

610
00:31:22,891 --> 00:31:27,454
It's literally cells to modules, modules
to pack, and you make a really, really big

611
00:31:27,454 --> 00:31:28,374
pack.

612
00:31:28,595 --> 00:31:34,078
And that's to me where I'm just like,
everyone else is doing this.

613
00:31:34,078 --> 00:31:36,459
There's a reason these cars are so
expensive and all you're going to do is

614
00:31:36,459 --> 00:31:38,501
make the most expensive part more
expensive.

615
00:31:38,501 --> 00:31:39,901
I don't understand.

616
00:31:40,214 --> 00:31:42,095
that how this is going to disrupt or
change.

617
00:31:42,095 --> 00:31:46,660
Like, there's so many vestigial, there was
like so many vestigial parts in what the

618
00:31:46,660 --> 00:31:51,285
Ultium positioning of what their
technology was that I was like, so many

619
00:31:51,285 --> 00:31:54,147
car companies have already announced
they're moving away from this.

620
00:31:54,208 --> 00:31:58,392
How is this going to actually be cheaper,
better, more efficient?

621
00:31:58,652 --> 00:31:59,453
And...

622
00:32:00,082 --> 00:32:02,922
Unfortunately, I guess I was right.

623
00:32:02,922 --> 00:32:06,724
Well, and even on the energy approach, if
we now have an energy wing of our

624
00:32:06,724 --> 00:32:11,705
automotive company and we're calling it
our brand blank energy, whatever, and

625
00:32:11,705 --> 00:32:15,446
people I know from the energy sector and
utilities that have joined some of those

626
00:32:15,446 --> 00:32:19,868
teams, when I've had conversations with
them, they've said, what's interesting is

627
00:32:19,868 --> 00:32:23,649
there's this acknowledgement of we know we
need to be doing this, but they don't

628
00:32:23,649 --> 00:32:25,090
fundamentally understand.

629
00:32:25,090 --> 00:32:27,931
how it fits into the process of what
they're building.

630
00:32:28,091 --> 00:32:31,834
And it just always makes me think of that
old Steve Jobs quote of, we hire smart

631
00:32:31,834 --> 00:32:33,595
people to tell us what to do.

632
00:32:33,595 --> 00:32:36,937
We don't hire smart people and tell them
what to do.

633
00:32:36,937 --> 00:32:40,739
And in that sense, the other problem we
see is, that I've seen at least, is that

634
00:32:40,739 --> 00:32:44,341
legacy OEMs are saying, we need to address
some of these energy aspects, things of

635
00:32:44,341 --> 00:32:44,642
that nature.

636
00:32:44,642 --> 00:32:47,924
Let's bring in people that are from that
sector that have experience.

637
00:32:47,924 --> 00:32:51,465
Well, those people walk in and they say,
yeah, but we're not coming out of Tesla.

638
00:32:51,722 --> 00:32:53,302
Like we're coming out of the energy
sector.

639
00:32:53,302 --> 00:32:55,684
That's what we've done for 20, 30 years.

640
00:32:55,684 --> 00:32:57,665
We don't know what they were thinking and
doing.

641
00:32:57,665 --> 00:33:01,247
We know they're tapping into our world and
they're using it as an aspect of what they

642
00:33:01,247 --> 00:33:06,029
do with their company's core competencies,
but we don't strategically know what we

643
00:33:06,029 --> 00:33:07,070
need to be telling you.

644
00:33:07,070 --> 00:33:10,570
So I think it's still, John, as you
pointed out, it's just this lack of

645
00:33:10,570 --> 00:33:14,412
comprehensive understanding of how all
that fits together in those layers as

646
00:33:14,412 --> 00:33:15,312
they've been peeling it back.

647
00:33:15,312 --> 00:33:18,693
And to your point, five years ago, they
were just staring at an onion.

648
00:33:18,913 --> 00:33:19,653
Right.

649
00:33:19,653 --> 00:33:21,773
Going like, I guess we gotta build an
onion.

650
00:33:22,214 --> 00:33:26,295
But I think there's actually a really good
transition into predictions for 2024,

651
00:33:26,295 --> 00:33:31,276
because this is exactly kind of what is
kind of the reckoning that we've maybe

652
00:33:31,276 --> 00:33:33,137
been seeing in the second half of 2023.

653
00:33:33,137 --> 00:33:36,414
John, I know you talk about this on
Autoline all the time, like what?

654
00:33:36,414 --> 00:33:41,078
Electric vehicles, autonomy, these were
the hot things from like 2020 to 2023.

655
00:33:41,319 --> 00:33:44,482
And this second half of the year, there's
been a huge pullback.

656
00:33:44,482 --> 00:33:47,425
And I think to what you're talking about,
Matt is especially true with the energy

657
00:33:47,425 --> 00:33:50,208
side of stuff is like, let's talk about
this.

658
00:33:50,208 --> 00:33:50,908
Tesla's doing it.

659
00:33:50,908 --> 00:33:52,410
There's obviously a need for it.

660
00:33:52,410 --> 00:33:53,591
Once again, money's cheap.

661
00:33:53,591 --> 00:33:54,732
Wall Street really likes this.

662
00:33:54,732 --> 00:33:56,202
This will drive the stock price up.

663
00:33:56,202 --> 00:33:58,243
and we'll get there eventually and figure
it out.

664
00:33:58,243 --> 00:34:00,104
We just have to get into the space.

665
00:34:00,124 --> 00:34:03,607
And I think there really has been a big
reckoning and we've seen that with GM on

666
00:34:03,607 --> 00:34:04,948
the autonomy side for sure.

667
00:34:04,948 --> 00:34:09,151
And now it's kind of like they're just,
and I kind of don't blame them with how

668
00:34:09,151 --> 00:34:10,532
things have gone, unfortunately.

669
00:34:10,532 --> 00:34:14,495
They are kind of just like slowly just
shrinking crews and all this stuff.

670
00:34:14,495 --> 00:34:17,918
And I wouldn't be surprised if within a
year they don't have it anymore as a part

671
00:34:17,918 --> 00:34:20,679
of their business, kind of like how Ford
dropped Argo.

672
00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:22,901
But that's a whole nother conversation.

673
00:34:23,495 --> 00:34:26,092
So with, oh, what were you gonna say
there, Matt?

674
00:34:26,370 --> 00:34:30,992
Well, no, I think what you're pointing out
is, let's be very honest about what we're

675
00:34:30,992 --> 00:34:34,373
all discussing in the sense that there's a
lot of promise about what technology could

676
00:34:34,373 --> 00:34:35,894
be, right?

677
00:34:35,894 --> 00:34:39,376
But then there's the practical application
of how do we bring it to market and what

678
00:34:39,376 --> 00:34:42,317
do we need to be understanding about how
we combine some of these things that have

679
00:34:42,317 --> 00:34:46,379
been siloed for a long time, if we're
talking automotive and the energy sector,

680
00:34:46,379 --> 00:34:48,280
energy being utilities, for example.

681
00:34:48,340 --> 00:34:52,802
And I think that the way that I've been
viewing it for the last five years or so

682
00:34:52,802 --> 00:34:54,823
is watching a lot of these promises come
out.

683
00:34:56,324 --> 00:34:59,885
developed out the advancement of the
automobile and what happened with

684
00:34:59,885 --> 00:35:00,966
infrastructure around that.

685
00:35:00,966 --> 00:35:05,148
And then outside of that infrastructure
for the energy sector and electricity,

686
00:35:05,148 --> 00:35:08,250
those were just sort of getting built out
over the last 100 years.

687
00:35:08,250 --> 00:35:11,872
And we've got it to a place where a lot
has been done to make our existing society

688
00:35:11,872 --> 00:35:15,874
what it is with those aspects of how we
all live with electricity and

689
00:35:15,874 --> 00:35:17,034
transportation.

690
00:35:17,335 --> 00:35:22,197
We are now, we watched one company
understand how to look at those two worlds

691
00:35:22,197 --> 00:35:23,178
and blend them.

692
00:35:23,178 --> 00:35:26,179
And I think what you pointed out, Chase,
about Tesla being a software company

693
00:35:26,179 --> 00:35:29,680
first, that's kind of that, what is your
foundation of understanding it?

694
00:35:29,741 --> 00:35:30,081
Right?

695
00:35:30,081 --> 00:35:33,782
And I think that the canvas, I kind of say
it's oftentimes, it's kind of like looking

696
00:35:33,782 --> 00:35:34,483
at a painting.

697
00:35:34,483 --> 00:35:35,523
The painting has been painted.

698
00:35:35,523 --> 00:35:38,985
The canvas has been filled in when it
comes to transportation and energy.

699
00:35:38,985 --> 00:35:44,467
We're now asking these companies that made
that happen, reimagine that painting.

700
00:35:44,608 --> 00:35:46,849
And they're looking at it going, yeah, we
don't know how to paint any differently

701
00:35:46,849 --> 00:35:47,549
though.

702
00:35:47,729 --> 00:35:50,210
And then Tesla said, but we do.

703
00:35:50,650 --> 00:35:51,611
And that's what they did.

704
00:35:51,611 --> 00:35:52,911
And so it's like...

705
00:35:53,072 --> 00:35:56,054
I don't know how, I think John, you said
it very well in the sense of these

706
00:35:56,054 --> 00:36:00,317
companies are not going to be able to just
reinvent and reimagine themselves that

707
00:36:00,317 --> 00:36:00,777
way.

708
00:36:00,777 --> 00:36:04,580
And even if it was, let's spin off this
other company and call it a purely brand

709
00:36:04,580 --> 00:36:08,243
new company to avoid some of these hurdles
we have, whether that's dealers, UAW, go

710
00:36:08,243 --> 00:36:09,064
down the list.

711
00:36:09,064 --> 00:36:12,907
Do they actually have the leadership in
place to make it possible?

712
00:36:12,907 --> 00:36:16,882
And I just don't see that the visionaries
that need to be in place for that.

713
00:36:16,882 --> 00:36:20,404
are out there that they can just pluck out
of nowhere and plop into a CEO or, you

714
00:36:20,404 --> 00:36:21,325
know, position to make that happen.

715
00:36:21,325 --> 00:36:23,206
Well, I think it goes to what you said
earlier.

716
00:36:23,206 --> 00:36:24,367
Press releases are easy.

717
00:36:24,367 --> 00:36:27,308
They're easier than ever, especially with
chat GPT.

718
00:36:27,809 --> 00:36:32,772
Actually, designing it is hard and then
building it is really hard.

719
00:36:33,053 --> 00:36:35,254
And then there's that whole challenge of
having to make money.

720
00:36:35,254 --> 00:36:37,916
And selling it too.

721
00:36:37,916 --> 00:36:39,477
I mean, Matt talks about this a lot.

722
00:36:39,477 --> 00:36:40,938
We talk about this a lot.

723
00:36:41,078 --> 00:36:45,381
And the third piece is if they can even
build them and not have software issues

724
00:36:45,381 --> 00:36:45,981
and

725
00:36:46,106 --> 00:36:47,926
and build them in volume.

726
00:36:48,086 --> 00:36:52,047
They have the network that apparently many
of them don't want to sell them.

727
00:36:52,047 --> 00:36:54,828
But even if they do, they're not very good
at it.

728
00:36:56,248 --> 00:36:59,449
Yeah, and that's, I think, once again,
that's a whole nother other show.

729
00:36:59,969 --> 00:37:01,950
One and a half plus podcast.

730
00:37:01,950 --> 00:37:07,672
But what I think is really interesting is,
it kind of goes back to that onion to it's

731
00:37:07,672 --> 00:37:10,892
once again, was the Tesla and everything
they're doing software defined?

732
00:37:10,892 --> 00:37:12,953
Yes, that's not why people bought them.

733
00:37:13,073 --> 00:37:14,973
They bought them because they were user
defined.

734
00:37:15,366 --> 00:37:18,267
And I think that's still the last part of
the onion.

735
00:37:18,267 --> 00:37:21,849
Maybe they're now kind of peeling back and
kind of understanding that part.

736
00:37:21,909 --> 00:37:23,030
No one's going to buy it.

737
00:37:23,030 --> 00:37:27,412
And I think the other part of this as the
final software thing I wanted to cover

738
00:37:27,412 --> 00:37:30,973
real quickly was the panel's thoughts on.

739
00:37:31,282 --> 00:37:35,425
Should a software recall be called a
recall or does it need to be?

740
00:37:35,425 --> 00:37:38,949
Because not even in the case of Tesla,
like Rivian, Ford, all these companies had

741
00:37:38,949 --> 00:37:39,589
it.

742
00:37:39,589 --> 00:37:44,154
It gets headlines, but it has none of the
financial or other kind of impacts that

743
00:37:44,154 --> 00:37:48,057
traditionally you see, maybe it has
temporary Wall Street impacts.

744
00:37:50,113 --> 00:37:55,301
But from a reliability and customer
experience, that is one of the biggest

745
00:37:55,301 --> 00:37:57,104
perks of a software defined.

746
00:37:57,866 --> 00:38:02,493
From the user perspective of a recall,
that I just don't think.

747
00:38:02,694 --> 00:38:03,855
most people even fully understand.

748
00:38:03,855 --> 00:38:07,339
I had so many people texting me saying
like, oh, you gotta take your Tesla.

749
00:38:07,339 --> 00:38:08,060
No, that's crazy.

750
00:38:08,060 --> 00:38:09,721
And I was like, and I didn't even know
about it.

751
00:38:09,721 --> 00:38:12,965
It was literally people texting me about
it only to find, oh, I already had the

752
00:38:12,965 --> 00:38:14,146
update, I guess.

753
00:38:14,146 --> 00:38:17,370
And then after driving 2000 miles, I
didn't notice anything different other

754
00:38:17,370 --> 00:38:21,053
than the images were bigger, which I
think's fine.

755
00:38:22,636 --> 00:38:24,337
But I think that is like.

756
00:38:24,502 --> 00:38:31,486
going into 2024, such a big difference in
that user-affind vehicle that I'm curious

757
00:38:31,486 --> 00:38:35,348
of the panel's thoughts like, should that
now be a thing?

758
00:38:35,348 --> 00:38:36,729
No, there should not be called recalls.

759
00:38:36,729 --> 00:38:37,849
Calling or...

760
00:38:37,849 --> 00:38:41,551
Number one, I can't believe the media's
fixation on recalls.

761
00:38:41,792 --> 00:38:43,032
We don't even report them anymore.

762
00:38:43,032 --> 00:38:43,673
It gets headlines.

763
00:38:43,673 --> 00:38:44,193
You know why?

764
00:38:44,193 --> 00:38:46,234
Because they happen every single day of
the week.

765
00:38:46,234 --> 00:38:51,197
If you go to Netsys website and look at
service actions, recalls, it's a constant

766
00:38:51,197 --> 00:38:52,146
barrage.

767
00:38:52,146 --> 00:38:54,507
And the media sort of cherry picks what
it's like.

768
00:38:54,507 --> 00:38:59,131
In fact, if you'll notice, most recall
notices happen after 5 p.m.

769
00:38:59,131 --> 00:39:03,635
Eastern time on a Friday, just so that
they miss the news cycle or try to miss

770
00:39:03,635 --> 00:39:04,816
the news cycle.

771
00:39:04,816 --> 00:39:07,118
And if it's an over the year update, who
cares?

772
00:39:07,118 --> 00:39:08,319
I mean, you don't even know.

773
00:39:08,319 --> 00:39:09,580
So I'm with you, Chase.

774
00:39:09,580 --> 00:39:11,781
I don't think they should be called
recalls.

775
00:39:12,162 --> 00:39:16,225
I think Tesla and Rivian are great SEO for
a lot of journalism companies.

776
00:39:16,225 --> 00:39:19,047
And so like if they can do a headline
about it, great.

777
00:39:19,047 --> 00:39:21,069
But you look at the companies

778
00:39:23,266 --> 00:39:25,568
I don't even think Tesla's in the top 10
this year.

779
00:39:25,568 --> 00:39:29,531
I had the number somewhere, but for actual
recalls, Ford was number one for the third

780
00:39:29,531 --> 00:39:30,591
year in a row.

781
00:39:30,972 --> 00:39:36,075
And all these other companies that maybe
one of, maybe, but they're not even

782
00:39:36,075 --> 00:39:38,937
companies that have the software OTA
availability.

783
00:39:38,937 --> 00:39:40,898
And I think a recall should be a thing.

784
00:39:40,898 --> 00:39:43,440
It should be called out, whether it's
hardware or software.

785
00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:45,681
I just, I think it is kind of silly that.

786
00:39:46,258 --> 00:39:48,738
it's putting the wrong focus on what needs
to be done.

787
00:39:48,738 --> 00:39:52,799
I'm going to probably be the outlier of
this group in that.

788
00:39:52,959 --> 00:39:56,760
I think for the moment, right.

789
00:39:56,760 --> 00:40:01,182
Recall is the term that the industry uses,
the government uses, and we need to

790
00:40:01,182 --> 00:40:02,102
continue to use that.

791
00:40:02,102 --> 00:40:02,942
Right.

792
00:40:02,942 --> 00:40:08,784
Going forward, do we need to rethink that
term or add a like a subterm under it?

793
00:40:08,964 --> 00:40:14,738
You know, recall software update or
whatever it is, because the fundamental

794
00:40:14,738 --> 00:40:19,961
issue to me is why we say, oh, you know,
like you were point chase and I have a

795
00:40:19,961 --> 00:40:20,701
Tesla as well.

796
00:40:20,701 --> 00:40:25,103
It's like if you see if you say yes to the
software upgrade, it just happens.

797
00:40:25,103 --> 00:40:29,346
You don't have to take it to the but if
the government thinks it's a safety issue,

798
00:40:29,346 --> 00:40:34,949
like full self driving or whatever it is,
it it's still a recall, right?

799
00:40:34,949 --> 00:40:39,131
Or, you know, maybe we use a different
term, but it fundamentally the government

800
00:40:39,131 --> 00:40:43,073
is saying there's a problem with the car
that needs to be fixed.

801
00:40:43,122 --> 00:40:48,323
And I think we're like, I mean, it's great
for a podcast and social media to argue

802
00:40:48,323 --> 00:40:50,503
over whether recalls the right term or
not.

803
00:40:51,104 --> 00:40:52,284
But it's not about the word.

804
00:40:52,284 --> 00:40:56,165
It's the fact that the government has
found a problem with the car that they

805
00:40:56,165 --> 00:40:57,766
believe needs to be fixed.

806
00:40:57,766 --> 00:41:02,627
And so whatever we call it, you know,
it's.

807
00:41:02,627 --> 00:41:03,947
I don't think we'd argue on that.

808
00:41:03,947 --> 00:41:06,448
I don't know if anyone else thinks I take
it.

809
00:41:06,848 --> 00:41:07,128
Right.

810
00:41:07,128 --> 00:41:08,909
And I don't have any argument with that.

811
00:41:08,909 --> 00:41:12,369
If the government or someone has said
there's an issue, that's.

812
00:41:12,370 --> 00:41:14,371
a pretty good reason to change something.

813
00:41:14,371 --> 00:41:18,554
But I think honestly, one of the other
advantages to just calling it out more was

814
00:41:18,554 --> 00:41:21,277
one, just to avoid consumer confusion.

815
00:41:21,277 --> 00:41:27,722
But two, it might actually be a reason to
push automakers to have these software

816
00:41:27,722 --> 00:41:33,707
defined vehicles even faster just for the
potential PR and all these convenience of

817
00:41:33,707 --> 00:41:37,509
not, of like, okay, this is just a
software defined update.

818
00:41:37,582 --> 00:41:38,562
I don't know, John.

819
00:41:38,562 --> 00:41:40,763
I know people have been talking about that
and there's advantage of it.

820
00:41:40,763 --> 00:41:42,584
Do you think that would speed it up at all
if that was?

821
00:41:42,584 --> 00:41:45,746
Oh, look, hey, what are the reasons why
the automakers want to get to software

822
00:41:45,746 --> 00:41:52,029
defined vehicles, which is an enabler to a
user defined vehicle, is getting back to

823
00:41:52,029 --> 00:41:54,471
the SDV over the year update thing.

824
00:41:54,471 --> 00:41:58,073
They can save a fortune, a fortune.

825
00:41:58,073 --> 00:42:01,214
You know, a couple of keystrokes, boom,
the car is fixed.

826
00:42:01,315 --> 00:42:02,655
And, oh, that didn't work.

827
00:42:02,655 --> 00:42:04,316
Oh, here's another iteration.

828
00:42:04,316 --> 00:42:06,902
What did I just hear on after hours
yesterday?

829
00:42:06,902 --> 00:42:11,003
Tesla had to do four or five iterations of
its latest quote unquote recall until it

830
00:42:11,003 --> 00:42:11,503
got it right.

831
00:42:11,503 --> 00:42:18,646
And so, you know, the, the other thing is
I can't remember the exact number, but

832
00:42:18,646 --> 00:42:24,209
something like 25% of all recalled
vehicles never go back to the dealership.

833
00:42:24,209 --> 00:42:25,429
People just don't care.

834
00:42:25,429 --> 00:42:28,791
You know, when General Motors had the
ignition key switch thing, I mean, they

835
00:42:28,791 --> 00:42:32,872
were, they were sending out people door to
door, knock on the doors, please do this.

836
00:42:32,932 --> 00:42:35,753
And people get the hell off my go on.

837
00:42:37,315 --> 00:42:39,136
They didn't care.

838
00:42:39,136 --> 00:42:40,978
That is a much more practical and safe
reason.

839
00:42:40,978 --> 00:42:41,598
But you know what?

840
00:42:41,598 --> 00:42:46,462
If they get in an accident and they get
damaged or hurt or whatever, you bet

841
00:42:46,462 --> 00:42:48,063
they're going to sue the car company.

842
00:42:48,063 --> 00:42:52,347
So just from that standpoint alone, an
automaker is going to be, wow, if we can

843
00:42:52,347 --> 00:42:54,969
fix this without even having to tell
people.

844
00:42:54,969 --> 00:43:00,353
Maybe legally we got to tell them, but
yeah, that alone is why they'll want to do

845
00:43:00,353 --> 00:43:00,973
it.

846
00:43:03,856 --> 00:43:05,997
It's a physical or digital recall.

847
00:43:06,398 --> 00:43:10,298
I mean, really, I mean, it's something
like I agree with you, Lauren, 100%.

848
00:43:10,499 --> 00:43:15,320
It is still a safety focused element of
why the government said we have to address

849
00:43:15,320 --> 00:43:16,060
this.

850
00:43:16,080 --> 00:43:19,421
You know, and so I think that, you know,
in that way, do we ditch the word recall?

851
00:43:19,421 --> 00:43:20,061
No.

852
00:43:20,061 --> 00:43:24,442
But I mean, as we just all discussed, it's
like, yeah, but man, does that get clicks

853
00:43:24,442 --> 00:43:28,463
if it's got the T word in front of it and
recall and all of a sudden, pow, it turns

854
00:43:28,463 --> 00:43:30,504
into how many eyeballs on your website.

855
00:43:30,504 --> 00:43:35,345
I think the other thing, Chase, is over
there,

856
00:43:36,486 --> 00:43:40,468
not all equal across the automakers,
right?

857
00:43:40,468 --> 00:43:45,771
Like, I mean, that's something we can
discuss to revian and Ford brick to couple

858
00:43:45,771 --> 00:43:47,692
of cars has it down, right?

859
00:43:47,692 --> 00:43:51,994
There's still automakers that say, Oh,
that software update, you need to take it

860
00:43:51,994 --> 00:43:53,775
to the dealer and have the dealer.

861
00:43:53,855 --> 00:43:57,478
And so, so maybe there needs to be a third
component, right?

862
00:43:57,478 --> 00:44:03,401
Like, you know, that's sort of really my
point is that it's, it's more than just,

863
00:44:03,401 --> 00:44:04,861
oh, yeah, this like

864
00:44:05,310 --> 00:44:10,415
software update, just click Yes on the on
the app and it's all good because that may

865
00:44:10,415 --> 00:44:15,881
be your car but it may not be the one that
your neighbor owns right?

866
00:44:15,881 --> 00:44:17,483
No, that's a that is a great point.

867
00:44:17,483 --> 00:44:21,787
I've had software updates that have to go
I have to take the car in the dealership

868
00:44:21,787 --> 00:44:25,952
and that to me is absurd but I so it's
like a remote recall or an in person.

869
00:44:25,952 --> 00:44:26,892
Yeah, something

870
00:44:29,134 --> 00:44:32,295
It's all about, what we're discussing now
is the perceived inconvenience or

871
00:44:32,295 --> 00:44:35,416
convenience of what's happening with
related to what is this recall.

872
00:44:36,057 --> 00:44:40,559
If you can address it, and I think as John
pointed out, man, the cost savings that go

873
00:44:40,559 --> 00:44:43,180
along with, we can address that with
software and we know how to do it with

874
00:44:43,180 --> 00:44:45,501
software, that's huge.

875
00:44:45,501 --> 00:44:51,064
But the moment you inconvenience your
customer further, that's the part where I

876
00:44:51,064 --> 00:44:52,425
think the argument is happening now with
Tesla.

877
00:44:52,425 --> 00:44:55,866
It's like, yeah, I wasn't inconvenienced
by this.

878
00:44:55,866 --> 00:44:56,787
My car was in my garage.

879
00:44:56,787 --> 00:44:58,848
My phone went, and I looked at it.

880
00:44:58,848 --> 00:45:00,548
Oh, yeah, I'll download that soft rotate.

881
00:45:00,548 --> 00:45:00,929
Sure.

882
00:45:00,929 --> 00:45:02,530
I'll go back to watching the game now.

883
00:45:02,530 --> 00:45:05,751
I didn't have to go anywhere You know So I
think that's it's that convenience factor

884
00:45:05,751 --> 00:45:08,553
that we're really mostly discussing
because at the end of the day It's still

885
00:45:08,553 --> 00:45:12,014
about making the product more safe or
better for the customer and the drivers

886
00:45:12,014 --> 00:45:17,357
and you know in the end But what did they
have to do to resolve the problem that the

887
00:45:17,357 --> 00:45:18,738
OEM I had identified?

888
00:45:18,738 --> 00:45:22,480
Right, you know and I mean obviously
Tesla's the big one that was in the news

889
00:45:22,480 --> 00:45:25,861
lately, but Rivian Lucid they've had these
same things that

890
00:45:26,194 --> 00:45:27,494
solved over online.

891
00:45:27,494 --> 00:45:31,796
And I think it is, I think to your point,
Lauren, too, the things that to me were

892
00:45:31,796 --> 00:45:35,597
really crazy that didn't get more
attention was the software update Rivian

893
00:45:35,597 --> 00:45:39,759
sent out that then kind of prevented them
not able to actually access the car.

894
00:45:39,799 --> 00:45:42,780
They could drive it, but they couldn't
access the computer.

895
00:45:42,780 --> 00:45:43,601
Not good.

896
00:45:43,601 --> 00:45:46,442
And then the Ford one, which was really
temporary, but it just stopped the car

897
00:45:46,442 --> 00:45:47,702
altogether.

898
00:45:48,063 --> 00:45:51,524
And to be realistic, there is pros and
cons.

899
00:45:51,524 --> 00:45:52,945
Any technology has pros and cons.

900
00:45:52,945 --> 00:45:55,358
And for this over-the-air update,

901
00:45:55,358 --> 00:46:00,240
It's mostly good, but once again, it goes
back to not having the right software know

902
00:46:00,240 --> 00:46:01,440
how to execute it.

903
00:46:01,440 --> 00:46:01,980
Right.

904
00:46:01,980 --> 00:46:03,641
Um, there's also something to be.

905
00:46:03,641 --> 00:46:04,101
Yeah.

906
00:46:04,101 --> 00:46:08,183
One, one quick thing that, that I was
thinking about, and Matt talks about this,

907
00:46:08,183 --> 00:46:10,985
like, I think in his sleep, right.

908
00:46:10,985 --> 00:46:15,126
But, but your question is about language
chase.

909
00:46:15,266 --> 00:46:20,889
And fundamentally it struck me as we were
talking about this, that everything we

910
00:46:20,889 --> 00:46:22,469
we've been talking about.

911
00:46:22,578 --> 00:46:27,640
EV charging, like software, you go down
the list, recalls, etc.

912
00:46:29,161 --> 00:46:33,783
It's it's both for the industry and the
consumers and the regular regulatory

913
00:46:33,783 --> 00:46:37,545
agencies and the government states and
everybody like it.

914
00:46:37,545 --> 00:46:43,948
EVs are an entirely new product category
and an entirely new language, right.

915
00:46:43,948 --> 00:46:47,549
And if we go back to the very beginning
early conversation, right?

916
00:46:47,549 --> 00:46:48,249
Like

917
00:46:48,938 --> 00:46:53,400
you know, I had a cousin walk up and years
ago, Thanksgiving and looked at the Tesla,

918
00:46:53,400 --> 00:46:54,761
oh, that's a hybrid, right?

919
00:46:54,761 --> 00:46:58,843
Like, people just don't understand the
language, right?

920
00:46:59,264 --> 00:47:04,046
And that's, you know, that's Matt's whole
reason for existence, right?

921
00:47:04,046 --> 00:47:08,108
Is like, we just have not done a good job
in this industry.

922
00:47:08,329 --> 00:47:12,291
The automakers have failed at educating
the consumers.

923
00:47:12,291 --> 00:47:16,733
It's like, you know, spend $2 million on a
on a humorous

924
00:47:16,938 --> 00:47:24,285
Super Bowl commercial and it's like, no,
that doesn't help people understand what

925
00:47:24,285 --> 00:47:26,467
an EV is and why they should buy it.

926
00:47:26,487 --> 00:47:26,787
Right.

927
00:47:26,787 --> 00:47:32,794
Like, well, as you're pointing out, the
human element is the most important part

928
00:47:32,794 --> 00:47:33,934
of the discussion.

929
00:47:34,015 --> 00:47:38,659
And oftentimes it turns into, you know, we
hear right now, you know, the market will

930
00:47:38,659 --> 00:47:40,978
demand that they want these products.

931
00:47:40,978 --> 00:47:44,179
And right now, the dealer argument with
the 4,000 dealers that signed that letter

932
00:47:44,179 --> 00:47:47,321
to the Biden administration said, we don't
think we're seeing that.

933
00:47:47,321 --> 00:47:49,622
We don't think we're seeing market demand.

934
00:47:49,823 --> 00:47:51,784
And we're seeing mandates.

935
00:47:51,784 --> 00:47:56,086
And even from a consumer perspective, we
just go to any owner's group, anything on

936
00:47:56,086 --> 00:47:59,028
social media related to EVs, how many
people will you see?

937
00:47:59,028 --> 00:48:00,209
And I think Johnson heard about it.

938
00:48:00,209 --> 00:48:04,551
You will pry my VA from my cold dead
fingers kind of thing.

939
00:48:04,551 --> 00:48:08,773
If they feel like something's being forced
upon them, they will say, mm-mm.

940
00:48:09,050 --> 00:48:12,731
Like, not all, but some might say, oh, I
see why you're doing this out of altruism

941
00:48:12,731 --> 00:48:14,091
or something, thank you government.

942
00:48:14,091 --> 00:48:16,652
But it's all human factor.

943
00:48:16,652 --> 00:48:19,013
They're not understanding what we're
saying, oftentimes.

944
00:48:19,013 --> 00:48:22,234
They're not seeing the value because of
how we aren't explaining it for what it

945
00:48:22,234 --> 00:48:25,115
does to benefit their lifestyle or their
life.

946
00:48:25,115 --> 00:48:28,817
And it all comes down to, are they
believing what they're hearing?

947
00:48:28,817 --> 00:48:31,397
And it is unfortunate that so often,

948
00:48:31,794 --> 00:48:34,655
And Lauren, I appreciate bringing it up is
yeah, the community how we communicate

949
00:48:34,655 --> 00:48:40,617
this even though the discussion of gas car
hybrid Plug-in hybrid pure electric That

950
00:48:40,617 --> 00:48:41,998
clearly didn't work.

951
00:48:41,998 --> 00:48:42,958
It's not resonating.

952
00:48:42,958 --> 00:48:48,740
It's not working the idea of kilowatts to
explain charging Stop doing it, you know

953
00:48:48,740 --> 00:48:50,661
and so charging ports

954
00:48:52,314 --> 00:48:55,696
Yeah, yeah, ports, because everybody puts
on a sailor's hat and they go to port when

955
00:48:55,696 --> 00:49:06,184
they go to like me like, I mean, just the
level of lack of a J 1772 you know, and it

956
00:49:06,184 --> 00:49:09,907
goes down the list goes on and on and I
think that I mean, if we land on that, I

957
00:49:09,907 --> 00:49:12,869
mean, you can build the greatest software
in the world, you can build the best, most

958
00:49:12,869 --> 00:49:14,490
cool product in the world.

959
00:49:14,490 --> 00:49:17,952
But this is where people like, again,
Steve Jobs to his credit, and he was he

960
00:49:17,952 --> 00:49:19,838
was difficult to work for but

961
00:49:19,838 --> 00:49:22,920
He was one of those people that understood
how to take that technology and translate

962
00:49:22,920 --> 00:49:25,381
it into something that you're going to see
value in this.

963
00:49:25,582 --> 00:49:29,604
And it was the idea of we're not going to
build what we think people are asking for.

964
00:49:29,604 --> 00:49:32,767
We're going to build what we understand
they will want.

965
00:49:32,767 --> 00:49:35,948
And I don't know if that's happened a lot
in the EV space.

966
00:49:36,149 --> 00:49:40,672
There's been a lot of that, you know, well
again, Steve Jobs reference back in 97

967
00:49:40,672 --> 00:49:43,194
when he was brought back to Apple and was
asked what have you been doing?

968
00:49:43,194 --> 00:49:44,435
And he said we got two options.

969
00:49:44,435 --> 00:49:47,397
We can either sit down in the room with
the engineers and ask them what kind of

970
00:49:47,397 --> 00:49:48,886
cool stuff can we come up with.

971
00:49:48,886 --> 00:49:52,167
do that and then go try to figure out how
to market it, or we can ask, where do we

972
00:49:52,167 --> 00:49:53,387
take our customers?

973
00:49:53,688 --> 00:49:57,889
And that's what they built their entire
product existence around.

974
00:49:57,930 --> 00:50:01,611
And I think that that's a big problem
right now for how we're positioning EVs,

975
00:50:01,611 --> 00:50:05,113
because it brass tacks, end of the day,
what are we discussing?

976
00:50:05,113 --> 00:50:06,774
It's a car still.

977
00:50:06,774 --> 00:50:08,775
It gets you from point A to point B.

978
00:50:08,775 --> 00:50:12,457
There are some fringe benefits around
convenience, by say, if you can fill up at

979
00:50:12,457 --> 00:50:13,257
home.

980
00:50:13,257 --> 00:50:16,298
But at the end of the day, how does it
change people's lives?

981
00:50:16,298 --> 00:50:18,800
And right now, they perceive it changes it

982
00:50:18,800 --> 00:50:23,621
negative way, even though those of us who
drive EVs can say, it's not actually, it's

983
00:50:23,621 --> 00:50:25,142
phenomenal in all these ways.

984
00:50:25,142 --> 00:50:27,863
That's, as you point out, Lauren, that's
all communication.

985
00:50:27,883 --> 00:50:29,123
That's all what that is.

986
00:50:29,123 --> 00:50:33,645
And it's been just dismissed by so many in
the industry for the last ten years, and

987
00:50:33,645 --> 00:50:34,705
it's just kind of baffling.

988
00:50:34,705 --> 00:50:35,538
I don't get it.

989
00:50:35,538 --> 00:50:36,198
I agree.

990
00:50:36,198 --> 00:50:39,219
I think one thing, I mean, there's a lot
I've learned today, but one thing I've

991
00:50:39,219 --> 00:50:41,879
clearly learned is we could talk about
this all day.

992
00:50:41,879 --> 00:50:42,480
Yeah.

993
00:50:43,820 --> 00:50:48,822
Clearly, this is clearly we have some
interests and passions about this, these

994
00:50:48,822 --> 00:50:49,862
topics in space.

995
00:50:49,862 --> 00:50:53,783
And so I figured what we should do before
this.

996
00:50:53,783 --> 00:50:54,683
We've already broke the record.

997
00:50:54,683 --> 00:50:56,664
I think this is the longest podcast I've
recorded.

998
00:50:56,664 --> 00:50:58,725
So we might have to break into two parts.

999
00:50:58,925 --> 00:51:01,305
But let's real quickly.

1000
00:51:01,378 --> 00:51:04,461
To kind of wrap this up, I'm just going to
kick it off with kind of predictions I

1001
00:51:04,461 --> 00:51:05,482
have for 2024.

1002
00:51:06,123 --> 00:51:09,747
And then if we can just all go around and
kind of maybe give any of that stand out.

1003
00:51:10,749 --> 00:51:14,874
Kind of in preparation for this, I was
thinking one thing that we used to see,

1004
00:51:14,874 --> 00:51:19,780
like when the Model S, like 2012, all that
time, like one of the things we saw

1005
00:51:19,780 --> 00:51:21,061
consistently.

1006
00:51:21,182 --> 00:51:25,063
was that battery and EV range was going
up.

1007
00:51:25,063 --> 00:51:30,004
Obviously, a lot of that was around
innovation and efficiencies made in the

1008
00:51:30,004 --> 00:51:34,146
cars, but a big part of it also was the
actual chemistry and technology in the

1009
00:51:34,146 --> 00:51:35,086
cells.

1010
00:51:35,386 --> 00:51:39,507
And it's been interesting to me that we
really haven't seen a lot of change in the

1011
00:51:39,507 --> 00:51:43,349
last few years, essentially since the
pandemic around the supply chain side of

1012
00:51:43,349 --> 00:51:43,569
that.

1013
00:51:43,569 --> 00:51:46,389
And I think a big part was the demand.

1014
00:51:46,610 --> 00:51:50,713
And now that we're kind of going back to a
point where maybe EVs and cars aren't

1015
00:51:50,713 --> 00:51:52,294
selling as fast.

1016
00:51:52,314 --> 00:51:57,278
And I even was talking to a supplier the
other day about it that one of the things

1017
00:51:57,278 --> 00:52:02,863
that they're now selling this spring will
have the same density for their LFP pack

1018
00:52:02,863 --> 00:52:06,666
and then the NMC version of this pack that
they're selling, it's going to be 30% more

1019
00:52:06,666 --> 00:52:08,927
dense, energy dense.

1020
00:52:09,148 --> 00:52:12,190
And I think that is one of the big things
that we're going to start seeing again is

1021
00:52:12,190 --> 00:52:16,234
now that there wasn't just such a crazy
demand to get batteries, get cars.

1022
00:52:16,234 --> 00:52:17,774
and that's starting to pull back.

1023
00:52:18,095 --> 00:52:21,657
One of the areas that we're gonna see more
competitiveness is probably around still

1024
00:52:21,657 --> 00:52:25,579
efficiency, but actually the energy
density and the battery cells, which means

1025
00:52:25,579 --> 00:52:28,021
lighter cars go farther, yada, yada.

1026
00:52:28,021 --> 00:52:32,163
That's a hopeful, but one of my kind of
predictions for 2024 to be competitive in

1027
00:52:32,163 --> 00:52:33,123
this space.

1028
00:52:33,584 --> 00:52:38,547
The second, I don't know if it's a
prediction or it's kind of a, I wanna wait

1029
00:52:38,547 --> 00:52:43,429
and see whether the $7,500 credit that
will be available at dealerships.

1030
00:52:43,670 --> 00:52:48,193
While that's going to make it easier for
people to take advantage, I don't know if

1031
00:52:48,193 --> 00:52:52,015
that's going to be a huge motivator for
people to now buy EVs.

1032
00:52:52,936 --> 00:52:56,639
I think it might be marginal versus,
there's been a lot of excitement about

1033
00:52:56,639 --> 00:52:57,339
that.

1034
00:52:57,339 --> 00:53:01,262
And I think it's a good thing, but I
really think it's going to be a marginal

1035
00:53:01,262 --> 00:53:06,266
uptick versus like, oh, people are going
to rush in and get that 7,500 bucks, like

1036
00:53:06,266 --> 00:53:09,208
a cash for clunkers thing now that they
don't have to deal with the IRS.

1037
00:53:09,208 --> 00:53:10,829
The dealership deals with it.

1038
00:53:11,486 --> 00:53:14,548
We'll see, but my second prediction is
that's going to be a marginal improvement

1039
00:53:14,548 --> 00:53:16,488
at best for EV sales this year.

1040
00:53:17,469 --> 00:53:23,893
And then the third I had was, will the
slowdown

1041
00:53:23,966 --> 00:53:29,648
of the EV sales, especially by the
traditional OEMs like we've talked about,

1042
00:53:29,648 --> 00:53:33,950
pulling back from EVs and going to
hybrids, is that really only going to, is

1043
00:53:33,950 --> 00:53:36,832
that going to be a successful short-term
play for the automakers, or is that

1044
00:53:36,832 --> 00:53:42,194
actually just going to give, put gas on
the fire to the startups that are already

1045
00:53:42,194 --> 00:53:49,037
all bev in, and they can just lean in, and
you'll start seeing Tesla's market shares

1046
00:53:49,037 --> 00:53:53,479
start to go up again, which I think we did
actually already last quarter, but Rivian,

1047
00:53:53,720 --> 00:53:57,061
startups that are just fully bought in on
BEVs are really just going to be able to

1048
00:53:57,061 --> 00:54:05,143
really take advantage and become known as
the EV companies in the space.

1049
00:54:05,143 --> 00:54:06,784
So that's my big three for 2024.

1050
00:54:09,125 --> 00:54:14,347
And even an open question, I guess.

1051
00:54:14,347 --> 00:54:15,147
Let's talk about first.

1052
00:54:15,147 --> 00:54:19,348
I mean, so we've got the sending off of a
tax credit.

1053
00:54:19,648 --> 00:54:22,269
I agree with that take in the sense that

1054
00:54:23,322 --> 00:54:25,902
Again, back to communication, they have to
position it right.

1055
00:54:26,002 --> 00:54:30,484
If you show the price of the vehicle and
all of a sudden you say $7,500 cash off

1056
00:54:30,484 --> 00:54:36,625
today and it goes from $30,000 to $22,500
or something, that's a big deal.

1057
00:54:36,625 --> 00:54:39,586
That's how people perceive benefit and
value and savings.

1058
00:54:41,326 --> 00:54:43,907
And how the tax credit work before was
never actually something that people

1059
00:54:43,907 --> 00:54:46,988
fundamentally understood and you had to be
in a certain tax bracket to really get

1060
00:54:46,988 --> 00:54:49,109
some benefit out of it.

1061
00:54:49,109 --> 00:54:50,189
So I don't disagree with you there.

1062
00:54:50,189 --> 00:54:52,574
I think that how that's been communicated
is still going to be...

1063
00:54:52,574 --> 00:54:55,115
a difficult selling point unless we change
that.

1064
00:54:56,136 --> 00:54:59,899
I think your point about batteries and
energy, and energy density of the battery

1065
00:54:59,899 --> 00:55:05,603
pack and innovation there, do I think it's
going to come out in 2024 as a big talking

1066
00:55:05,603 --> 00:55:05,824
point?

1067
00:55:05,824 --> 00:55:07,445
Will we see some movement there?

1068
00:55:07,445 --> 00:55:08,565
Hard to say.

1069
00:55:08,886 --> 00:55:13,269
QuantumScape just had an announcement
about how they, what, it was like 500,000

1070
00:55:13,689 --> 00:55:16,651
mile cycle they had on the pack they've
been testing.

1071
00:55:16,712 --> 00:55:19,013
So there's obvious movement there.

1072
00:55:19,634 --> 00:55:23,776
I think what we're seeing is we're kind of
stretching the limits of existing battery

1073
00:55:23,776 --> 00:55:25,737
chemistry and technologies that we have.

1074
00:55:25,737 --> 00:55:28,918
And the promise of solid state has been
hanging out in the air now for what seems

1075
00:55:28,918 --> 00:55:30,179
like forever.

1076
00:55:30,179 --> 00:55:34,721
And I think even if it was able to someone
could announce that, hey, we've got a

1077
00:55:34,941 --> 00:55:38,263
Toyota, we have a 600 mile range vehicle,
isn't it great?

1078
00:55:38,263 --> 00:55:40,304
But yeah, when is it going to come to
market and how fast?

1079
00:55:40,304 --> 00:55:44,365
And then even when it does come to market,
how does that marry to how you fill it up?

1080
00:55:44,966 --> 00:55:46,987
because there's still a lot to unpack with
that.

1081
00:55:46,987 --> 00:55:50,489
So I think we've, in a lot of ways, this
conversation is kind of proving, I think

1082
00:55:50,489 --> 00:55:54,472
we've exhausted a lot of the really great
talking points that could come out of EV

1083
00:55:54,472 --> 00:55:58,755
ownership, and I think it gets back to,
are people perceiving value?

1084
00:55:59,315 --> 00:56:05,320
And I think that's a challenge right now
that is not gonna be solved by the battery

1085
00:56:05,320 --> 00:56:08,802
technology that exists today, or by
another 7,500 bucks off the car at the

1086
00:56:08,802 --> 00:56:10,963
showroom, unfortunately.

1087
00:56:11,083 --> 00:56:14,386
If I had a prediction for 2024, I think
what we're gonna start seeing is some

1088
00:56:14,386 --> 00:56:17,927
some realities around practical
conversation around what does this product

1089
00:56:17,927 --> 00:56:19,748
actually mean for people?

1090
00:56:20,088 --> 00:56:24,210
Because there's been a ton of promises and
already people are saying, you didn't live

1091
00:56:24,210 --> 00:56:26,391
up to it company XYZ.

1092
00:56:26,871 --> 00:56:30,913
And I think that level of coming down to
earth is going to be very real.

1093
00:56:30,913 --> 00:56:33,914
But to your point, Chase, I think it's
going to benefit brands like Tesla.

1094
00:56:34,155 --> 00:56:37,516
I think they're still going to be able to
say, we still stand out.

1095
00:56:37,516 --> 00:56:42,078
And I don't know how that's going to be
different this year.

1096
00:56:42,279 --> 00:56:44,320
So this year, I don't think it's going to
be all that transparent.

1097
00:56:44,320 --> 00:56:46,869
That's what I'm going to do, but in my
opinion, to be honest.

1098
00:56:49,154 --> 00:56:51,515
Sorry to be a wet towel on that one.

1099
00:56:51,515 --> 00:56:54,236
No, I was going to joke and say, well,
after almost two hours, that was the

1100
00:56:54,236 --> 00:56:54,556
takeaway.

1101
00:56:54,556 --> 00:56:56,997
Yeah, that was the takeaway.

1102
00:56:56,997 --> 00:56:57,758
Well, let's be clear.

1103
00:56:57,758 --> 00:57:02,440
I mean, again, like our last conversation,
not to not be optimistic, but there's a

1104
00:57:02,440 --> 00:57:07,382
lack of pragmatism that has not been
applied in these conversations.

1105
00:57:07,382 --> 00:57:11,884
The hype train has been going at 1,000
miles an hour on EVs for the last five to

1106
00:57:11,884 --> 00:57:15,166
six years, and it's coming down to Earth
in a few ways.

1107
00:57:15,166 --> 00:57:16,606
And I think that's good.

1108
00:57:18,848 --> 00:57:22,595
can't keep to the general public around
what this will do for their life and they

1109
00:57:22,595 --> 00:57:27,164
don't perceive value, well then there's a
stink that comes along with that product

1110
00:57:27,164 --> 00:57:28,265
after a while.

1111
00:57:28,422 --> 00:57:29,722
And that's not good.

1112
00:57:30,422 --> 00:57:35,445
And that's where I always tell people from
the EV community, let's be very practical

1113
00:57:35,445 --> 00:57:36,645
about how we position this.

1114
00:57:36,645 --> 00:57:40,467
Don't say things that are ridiculous, like
it takes me 10 seconds to charge my car

1115
00:57:40,467 --> 00:57:43,008
because I plugged it in and walked in my
house.

1116
00:57:43,008 --> 00:57:46,110
That's not what the general public is
asking about, stuff like that.

1117
00:57:46,230 --> 00:57:48,691
I think that that's what we're seeing
here, is the practical applications of

1118
00:57:48,691 --> 00:57:53,713
EVs, but we need to actually speak
practically to the real benefits.

1119
00:57:54,034 --> 00:57:57,295
And I think that's what this year is an
opportunity for, because we're gonna have

1120
00:57:57,295 --> 00:57:58,155
to battle

1121
00:57:59,156 --> 00:58:00,437
of things that have happened in the last
few years.

1122
00:58:00,437 --> 00:58:00,857
For sure.

1123
00:58:00,857 --> 00:58:03,679
John, Lauren, any thoughts or predictions
for 2024?

1124
00:58:05,560 --> 00:58:06,001
Want to go next?

1125
00:58:06,001 --> 00:58:06,581
Want to take it, Lauren?

1126
00:58:06,581 --> 00:58:07,481
Yeah, go ahead.

1127
00:58:08,622 --> 00:58:09,443
OK.

1128
00:58:10,484 --> 00:58:11,645
Wow, lots of things.

1129
00:58:11,645 --> 00:58:12,985
So I.

1130
00:58:13,330 --> 00:58:15,991
All the analysts are predicting that
there's going to be a downturn in the

1131
00:58:15,991 --> 00:58:17,631
automotive market in the U.S.

1132
00:58:17,631 --> 00:58:18,452
next year.

1133
00:58:18,452 --> 00:58:22,914
I do not agree because next year is a
presidential election year.

1134
00:58:22,914 --> 00:58:27,395
And it just so happens that in every
presidential election year, car sales go

1135
00:58:27,395 --> 00:58:28,276
great.

1136
00:58:28,396 --> 00:58:31,277
I've just observed this over the years.

1137
00:58:31,277 --> 00:58:32,378
So it should be a pretty good year.

1138
00:58:32,378 --> 00:58:36,319
In fact, you know, December came in really
strong, came in far stronger than the

1139
00:58:36,319 --> 00:58:37,720
whole year for 2023.

1140
00:58:38,300 --> 00:58:41,981
And I think that's probably an indication
of a good kickoff to the year.

1141
00:58:42,058 --> 00:58:46,319
especially if the Federal Reserve starts
to lower interest rates, which, you know,

1142
00:58:46,319 --> 00:58:47,960
it looks like it could do.

1143
00:58:47,960 --> 00:58:52,302
That'll be an instant boon to car sales.

1144
00:58:52,302 --> 00:58:57,424
I don't think the seventy five hundred
dollar automatic, you know, at point of

1145
00:58:57,424 --> 00:59:04,087
sale is going to make that much difference
because a whole bunch of cars just got

1146
00:59:04,087 --> 00:59:07,088
brushed off the list that they don't
qualify for it.

1147
00:59:07,088 --> 00:59:07,748
Yeah.

1148
00:59:08,088 --> 00:59:09,369
And so.

1149
00:59:09,829 --> 00:59:11,478
But if you lease.

1150
00:59:11,478 --> 00:59:13,059
You can get that money.

1151
00:59:13,059 --> 00:59:17,742
And so my prediction is you're going to
see a lot of EV lease deals getting

1152
00:59:17,742 --> 00:59:23,325
advertised because that's where automakers
are going to try to steer the consumer.

1153
00:59:24,126 --> 00:59:28,569
But I think it's going to be a very tough
year for EVs from this standpoint.

1154
00:59:29,250 --> 00:59:34,494
The Republicans and Trump, the Niagara
crowd especially are on the war path

1155
00:59:34,494 --> 00:59:36,054
against EVs.

1156
00:59:36,735 --> 00:59:40,657
And it really resonates with damn near
half the car buying public.

1157
00:59:40,854 --> 00:59:43,654
You know, they don't believe in climate
change.

1158
00:59:43,654 --> 00:59:44,935
They think EVs are stupid.

1159
00:59:44,935 --> 00:59:48,056
They think the government's trying to
shove it down their throat.

1160
00:59:48,056 --> 00:59:50,656
They don't think these things should be
subsidized.

1161
00:59:50,676 --> 00:59:56,258
So I don't know if it's a plank of the
platform of the Republican party, but it's

1162
00:59:56,258 --> 00:59:58,199
definitely a talking point.

1163
00:59:58,199 --> 01:00:05,701
And so I think you're going to see the
anti-EV megaphones really cranked up in

1164
01:00:05,701 --> 01:00:06,521
2024.

1165
01:00:07,341 --> 01:00:08,021
So.

1166
01:00:08,086 --> 01:00:11,808
Like I said, I think overall for the
industry, my gut feel is it's going to be

1167
01:00:11,808 --> 01:00:12,969
pretty good.

1168
01:00:13,069 --> 01:00:18,734
I believe EV sales will continue to grow,
will do better than what we did in 2023

1169
01:00:19,515 --> 01:00:22,497
because there's so many more new models
coming out in different market segments,

1170
01:00:22,497 --> 01:00:25,019
different price points from different
brands.

1171
01:00:25,019 --> 01:00:30,643
And there's a rule of law in the
automotive industry and any viable law.

1172
01:00:30,643 --> 01:00:33,565
Every car that gets built gets sold.

1173
01:00:33,986 --> 01:00:37,170
They don't take them apart at the end of
the year and send the components back to

1174
01:00:37,170 --> 01:00:38,371
the suppliers.

1175
01:00:38,432 --> 01:00:40,315
Every single one gets sold.

1176
01:00:40,315 --> 01:00:44,341
Now, it might not sell in the timeframe
they want, they may not make a profit on

1177
01:00:44,341 --> 01:00:46,444
it, but every one gets sold.

1178
01:00:46,444 --> 01:00:50,449
So, as more EVs get sold, EV sales are
going to go up.

1179
01:00:52,570 --> 01:00:54,911
Right, I guess that's me.

1180
01:00:54,911 --> 01:00:57,072
So a couple things.

1181
01:00:57,072 --> 01:01:02,115
Basically, I agree with all of you on the
$7500 tax credit.

1182
01:01:02,115 --> 01:01:09,299
I've done a lot of analysis over the years
using actual IRS data on who is actually

1183
01:01:09,299 --> 01:01:13,561
filing when you actually had to file that
your tax return for it.

1184
01:01:13,561 --> 01:01:15,682
And it was mostly high income people.

1185
01:01:15,682 --> 01:01:20,785
And I know the people on the left side
don't like to hear that because it's

1186
01:01:20,785 --> 01:01:22,005
talking points.

1187
01:01:22,078 --> 01:01:26,919
for Republicans and conservatives, but
fundamentally it's true.

1188
01:01:27,340 --> 01:01:35,363
The people that buy EVs and use the tax
credit are, you know, modest income and

1189
01:01:35,363 --> 01:01:37,424
higher, higher income people.

1190
01:01:37,424 --> 01:01:44,447
And so the tax credit and the dealer
rebate, et cetera, I think will have a

1191
01:01:44,447 --> 01:01:50,129
modest impact, but fundamentally people
either are interested in buying an EV or

1192
01:01:50,129 --> 01:01:51,189
they're not.

1193
01:01:51,374 --> 01:01:58,039
And so the tax credit, I believe, has
always been more of a discount than it

1194
01:01:58,039 --> 01:02:02,202
actually has been a driver of incremental
sales.

1195
01:02:02,563 --> 01:02:06,806
But I do think that the rebate aspect, the
point of sale aspect will help a little

1196
01:02:06,806 --> 01:02:07,467
bit.

1197
01:02:07,467 --> 01:02:09,948
But 100% agree with John.

1198
01:02:10,629 --> 01:02:12,611
I'm on my third lease of Tesla.

1199
01:02:12,611 --> 01:02:18,476
I fundamentally believe that leasing an EV
is better because of the ongoing

1200
01:02:18,476 --> 01:02:20,017
improvement of the technology.

1201
01:02:20,017 --> 01:02:20,777
I mean...

1202
01:02:20,918 --> 01:02:27,499
You know, the, the car's range improves
10%, 15% every like 18 months, 20%,

1203
01:02:27,499 --> 01:02:29,900
whatever it is, the, the hardware gets
better.

1204
01:02:29,900 --> 01:02:31,260
The software gets better.

1205
01:02:31,260 --> 01:02:36,982
Like, I just think it makes sense to lease
an EV rather than, than buy one.

1206
01:02:36,982 --> 01:02:39,383
And then you add in the tax credit.

1207
01:02:39,383 --> 01:02:46,645
You can get it $160,000 lucid and the get
the $7,500 credit if you lease it.

1208
01:02:46,645 --> 01:02:46,965
Right.

1209
01:02:46,965 --> 01:02:48,205
So why not lease?

1210
01:02:48,205 --> 01:02:48,585
Right.

1211
01:02:48,585 --> 01:02:49,805
So, um,

1212
01:02:49,898 --> 01:02:55,322
So this could be a year of the market
finally wakes up that leasing is not a bad

1213
01:02:55,322 --> 01:02:59,385
idea that actually for EVs, maybe it's
actually the better approach.

1214
01:02:59,385 --> 01:03:06,751
So we could see a growth in leasing this
year on the battery aspect chase.

1215
01:03:08,053 --> 01:03:11,976
I think one of the interesting thing has
been is like how Ford had the NMC

1216
01:03:11,976 --> 01:03:15,178
lightning and the and the LFP lightning.

1217
01:03:15,178 --> 01:03:19,381
So 300 miles of range, 230 miles range,
different price points.

1218
01:03:19,434 --> 01:03:27,217
And I think that bifurcation is probably
an only increase and that the automakers

1219
01:03:27,217 --> 01:03:31,659
realize that in order for EV sales to
grow, they actually have to be more

1220
01:03:31,659 --> 01:03:32,799
affordable.

1221
01:03:33,179 --> 01:03:38,281
And that more and more people, especially
experienced EV owners, realize they

1222
01:03:38,281 --> 01:03:41,162
actually don't need 400 miles of range.

1223
01:03:41,383 --> 01:03:46,525
And that 250 actually works for most
people, right?

1224
01:03:46,525 --> 01:03:48,605
And so I think understanding

1225
01:03:49,046 --> 01:03:54,287
just like you have models that have a V6
and a V8, et cetera.

1226
01:03:54,327 --> 01:03:58,248
People will realize that this will work
for me.

1227
01:03:58,248 --> 01:04:04,390
Well, I think just to hop in on the LFP
thing real quick.

1228
01:04:06,311 --> 01:04:11,152
I think a lot of people didn't expect LFP
to be so popular so quickly.

1229
01:04:11,152 --> 01:04:13,793
And it really is the easy button for new
EV drivers.

1230
01:04:13,793 --> 01:04:16,922
They don't have to worry about charging it
to a certain percentage.

1231
01:04:16,922 --> 01:04:18,943
It just they can charge 100 every time.

1232
01:04:18,943 --> 01:04:19,784
I really think you're right.

1233
01:04:19,784 --> 01:04:22,306
And then of course, they don't burn.

1234
01:04:22,306 --> 01:04:22,747
Yeah.

1235
01:04:22,747 --> 01:04:26,750
And we've got you know, we've got sodium
coming, which is already here.

1236
01:04:27,131 --> 01:04:31,394
So we don't have to wait for the solid
state because sodium is already in some of

1237
01:04:31,394 --> 01:04:34,557
the Chinese EVs as of right now.

1238
01:04:34,557 --> 01:04:36,799
And that's going to be a game changer as
well.

1239
01:04:36,799 --> 01:04:42,404
But in the interest of time moving on the
sort of the other sort of my predictions

1240
01:04:42,404 --> 01:04:44,426
are we

1241
01:04:44,426 --> 01:04:51,469
we could see actually sort of a return of
plug-in hybrid sales, mostly driven by

1242
01:04:51,469 --> 01:04:57,051
Toyota, of course, because they've hitched
their pony to regular hybrids and plug-in

1243
01:04:57,051 --> 01:04:57,591
hybrids.

1244
01:04:57,591 --> 01:05:02,773
The problem with Toyota is they're just
not making very many plug-in hybrids.

1245
01:05:02,773 --> 01:05:06,655
They're all made in Japan and they're not
bringing enough over here.

1246
01:05:06,655 --> 01:05:10,457
I've talked to executives at Toyota and
whether you believe them or not, they've

1247
01:05:10,457 --> 01:05:12,997
told me they just don't have enough
batteries.

1248
01:05:13,706 --> 01:05:16,167
for like the RAV4 and stuff like that.

1249
01:05:16,167 --> 01:05:18,288
So hopefully they get that fixed.

1250
01:05:18,808 --> 01:05:24,110
But I think, I know Kia and Hyundai still
believe strongly in plugin hybrids.

1251
01:05:24,110 --> 01:05:28,092
They believe that the middle of the
country is not ready for BEVs.

1252
01:05:28,092 --> 01:05:34,975
And so they're playing the multi-power
train platform and they have some good

1253
01:05:34,975 --> 01:05:35,716
plugin hybrids.

1254
01:05:35,716 --> 01:05:38,917
They have 30, 35, 40 miles of range.

1255
01:05:39,942 --> 01:05:45,343
And so again, I could be wrong on this,
but we could see a spurt of growth in

1256
01:05:45,343 --> 01:05:50,204
plugin hybrids this year, I agree with
John also that a lot of people are

1257
01:05:50,204 --> 01:05:53,045
predicting a down year in EV sales.

1258
01:05:53,145 --> 01:05:59,647
But I think, you know, we also have to
realize that a lot of people are on their

1259
01:05:59,647 --> 01:06:01,468
second and third EV, right?

1260
01:06:01,468 --> 01:06:06,689
So we have this existing market of people
are turning in their leases and getting

1261
01:06:06,689 --> 01:06:07,830
another EV and that.

1262
01:06:07,830 --> 01:06:11,012
that foundation is growing significantly.

1263
01:06:11,012 --> 01:06:17,718
So we'll probably see a modest growth
overall in EV sales this year.

1264
01:06:17,879 --> 01:06:22,803
And then the last thing, my sort of big
thing that I've been harping on about on

1265
01:06:22,803 --> 01:06:29,969
LinkedIn a lot the last six months is 2024
is gonna be kind of an ugly year on the

1266
01:06:29,969 --> 01:06:30,950
charging space.

1267
01:06:30,950 --> 01:06:34,473
I think we're gonna see a shakeout and a
bloodbath and.

1268
01:06:35,570 --> 01:06:40,552
some a lot more bankruptcies and mergers
and consolidation and stuff.

1269
01:06:40,552 --> 01:06:44,813
There are this is this is the 1849 gold
rush, right?

1270
01:06:44,934 --> 01:06:49,375
And there are too many people that moved
to California to try to get rich with DC

1271
01:06:49,375 --> 01:06:50,696
fast charging.

1272
01:06:51,696 --> 01:06:54,217
And there's just not enough gold in the
ground.

1273
01:06:54,298 --> 01:06:54,618
Right.

1274
01:06:54,618 --> 01:07:02,261
Like, you know, like, as I like to say,
you know, we may we may add between 13,500

1275
01:07:02,301 --> 01:07:03,381
to 15,000.

1276
01:07:04,450 --> 01:07:09,152
fast charging ports, Matt, this year.

1277
01:07:09,693 --> 01:07:14,795
Like 60 some percent of those will be
Tesla chargers, right?

1278
01:07:15,236 --> 01:07:20,039
And so 80 to 90% are gonna be
manufactured, the hardware manufactured by

1279
01:07:20,039 --> 01:07:22,020
four to five manufacturers.

1280
01:07:22,200 --> 01:07:27,763
But we have like 100 companies that have
entered the fast charging hardware space.

1281
01:07:28,944 --> 01:07:31,025
It just, the math doesn't work, right?

1282
01:07:31,025 --> 01:07:31,478
The...

1283
01:07:31,478 --> 01:07:33,499
the pie, the pie isn't big enough.

1284
01:07:33,499 --> 01:07:39,144
So I won't mention their names because
they're all my clients.

1285
01:07:39,144 --> 01:07:45,830
But there's there are several of these
companies that are already, you know, in

1286
01:07:45,830 --> 01:07:48,173
trouble and seeking investors.

1287
01:07:48,173 --> 01:07:53,997
And yeah, it's it could be a very ugly
year in the charging space.

1288
01:07:56,278 --> 01:08:00,319
Well, I think that will be just one more
thing to follow you on LinkedIn about.

1289
01:08:00,319 --> 01:08:03,020
I find a lot of the time you always have
some pretty interesting posts around that.

1290
01:08:03,020 --> 01:08:07,161
And I'm sure there'll be some big
surprises coming this year.

1291
01:08:07,161 --> 01:08:12,223
So I just want to say, having gone over
time, thank you so much, everyone, for

1292
01:08:12,223 --> 01:08:16,384
being a part of this and for, I think,
just continuing to come on the podcast and

1293
01:08:16,384 --> 01:08:17,745
share your thoughts.

1294
01:08:17,745 --> 01:08:21,165
And I think probably one of the more
fascinating just

1295
01:08:21,418 --> 01:08:23,880
having even a little difference in opinion
occasionally.

1296
01:08:23,880 --> 01:08:28,784
I think it turned out we all agreed in the
end, but just having those conversations

1297
01:08:28,784 --> 01:08:32,547
and really kind of recapping this past
year and looking forward to 2024, I think

1298
01:08:32,547 --> 01:08:37,491
for anyone who is in kind of the EV or
sustainable space, there's a lot to look

1299
01:08:37,491 --> 01:08:39,072
forward for this year.

1300
01:08:39,553 --> 01:08:45,657
There's definitely some cloud, gray clouds
in the distance, especially around the...

1301
01:08:46,050 --> 01:08:49,495
political side of stuff come up this year,
as you can't even mention, John, but I

1302
01:08:49,495 --> 01:08:51,497
think this I think it's going to be
exciting either way.

1303
01:08:51,497 --> 01:08:55,984
So I just want to say thank you all for
joining and looking forward to having you

1304
01:08:55,984 --> 01:08:56,865
all on again soon.

1305
01:08:56,865 --> 01:08:56,985
Great.

1306
01:08:56,985 --> 01:08:57,446
Thanks for having us.

1307
01:08:57,446 --> 01:08:59,828
Yeah, thank you, Jason.

1308
01:09:03,138 --> 01:09:07,099
Thank you for joining us on this two-part
journey looking back with our panel, the

1309
01:09:07,099 --> 01:09:10,039
standout moments for electric vehicles in
2023.

1310
01:09:11,160 --> 01:09:15,121
I hope today's discussion on the impact of
Chinese electric vehicles and global auto

1311
01:09:15,121 --> 01:09:20,102
markets, the growing role of software,
consumer preferences for user defined

1312
01:09:20,102 --> 01:09:24,803
vehicles, the challenges faced by legacy
automakers and software integration and

1313
01:09:24,803 --> 01:09:28,644
the communication hurdles EV automakers
face in engaging with the public has

1314
01:09:28,644 --> 01:09:32,825
provided you with a deeper understanding
and fresh insights.

1315
01:09:33,342 --> 01:09:38,185
Our panel's predictions for 2024 have also
undoubtedly given you much to think about

1316
01:09:38,185 --> 01:09:41,267
regarding the future trends and
developments in the electric vehicle

1317
01:09:41,267 --> 01:09:42,168
sector.

1318
01:09:42,608 --> 01:09:46,591
Also, check out part one of our panel as
well if you haven't already where we

1319
01:09:46,591 --> 01:09:50,915
discuss the impacts of the North American
Charging Standard and how the rollout of

1320
01:09:50,915 --> 01:09:54,737
the National Electric Vehicle
Infrastructure Funds changed the electric

1321
01:09:54,737 --> 01:09:56,738
vehicle charging space in 2023.

1322
01:09:57,700 --> 01:10:00,726
We also discussed the growth rate of
electric vehicle sales.

1323
01:10:00,726 --> 01:10:05,108
and how legacy automakers have been
responding to the sales in the auto market

1324
01:10:05,108 --> 01:10:08,650
and also changing where they're putting
investments for different types of

1325
01:10:08,650 --> 01:10:12,633
powertrains, whether that be a fully
electric vehicle or for a lot of the

1326
01:10:12,633 --> 01:10:17,195
legacy automakers, kind of taking a step
back and reinvesting more into plug-in

1327
01:10:17,195 --> 01:10:19,276
hybrids and hybrid technology.

1328
01:10:19,797 --> 01:10:24,040
Plus, don't forget to follow us on your
favorite podcast platform to stay updated

1329
01:10:24,040 --> 01:10:27,441
with the latest in electric vehicles news
and discussions.

1330
01:10:27,778 --> 01:10:32,059
Please also be aware that we are growing
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1331
01:10:32,059 --> 01:10:36,580
really do help Great Connections grow so
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1332
01:10:36,580 --> 01:10:38,021
like today.

1333
01:10:38,021 --> 01:10:40,962
Share this episode with your network to
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1334
01:10:40,962 --> 01:10:45,723
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1335
01:10:45,723 --> 01:10:49,865
expert insights and in-depth analysis of
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1336
01:10:49,865 --> 01:10:52,405
vehicles and how they tie to our grid.

1337
01:10:52,894 --> 01:10:57,157
If this episode generated any questions or
comments on what you want to have

1338
01:10:57,157 --> 01:11:03,203
discussed more, please share them with the
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1339
01:11:03,203 --> 01:11:07,006
reach out to us on Twitter where you can
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1340
01:11:07,006 --> 01:11:09,308
recommendations for future guests.

1341
01:11:09,749 --> 01:11:13,652
Join us next time on the Grid Connections
podcast where we will continue to explore

1342
01:11:13,652 --> 01:11:17,535
the cutting edge innovations and
challenges in the electric vehicle market.

1343
01:11:17,836 --> 01:11:19,697
Until next week, remember...

1344
01:11:19,734 --> 01:11:24,177
Whether you're a seasoned EV enthusiast or
new to the world of electric mobility, the

1345
01:11:24,177 --> 01:11:27,660
Grid Connections podcast is your go-to
source for all things that tie to the

1346
01:11:27,660 --> 01:11:28,461
grid.

1347
01:11:28,461 --> 01:11:29,261
Thank you.