WEBVTT NOTE This file was generated by Descript 00:00:01.170 --> 00:00:05.370 Welcome to The Chemical Show, the podcast where Chemical means business. 00:00:05.910 --> 00:00:09.720 I'm your host, Victoria Meyer, bringing you stories and insights 00:00:09.720 --> 00:00:13.590 from leaders driving innovation and growth across the chemical industry. 00:00:14.520 --> 00:00:18.840 Each week we explore key trends, real world challenges, and the 00:00:18.840 --> 00:00:20.610 strategies that make an impact. 00:00:20.910 --> 00:00:21.720 Let's get started. 00:00:23.431 --> 00:00:24.961 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: Welcome back to The Chemical Show 00:00:24.991 --> 00:00:27.721 where Leaders Talk Business today. 00:00:27.721 --> 00:00:31.561 I am spotlighting a pair of speakers who are going to be 00:00:31.561 --> 00:00:34.051 at The Chemical Summit in 2025. 00:00:34.651 --> 00:00:38.521 if you like what you hear, you are definitely going to want to join the 00:00:38.521 --> 00:00:42.121 conversation in person to be part of. 00:00:42.376 --> 00:00:43.576 All the conversations. 00:00:44.116 --> 00:00:46.306 The Chemical Summit this year is on September 30th and 00:00:46.306 --> 00:00:48.766 October 1st in Houston, Texas. 00:00:48.856 --> 00:00:51.196 Visit The Chemical Summit.com 00:00:51.196 --> 00:00:52.246 for more information. 00:00:52.366 --> 00:00:54.016 So onto our guests. 00:00:54.186 --> 00:00:59.005 I have the honor of speaking with Jeremy Bess and Patrick Luce Who are both chief 00:00:59.035 --> 00:01:02.725 economists at Stantec, so we may have to talk about how you can both be the 00:01:02.725 --> 00:01:04.915 Chiefs, but that'll be a different story. 00:01:06.055 --> 00:01:08.725 Jeremy and Patrick are coming to The Chemical Summit this year to 00:01:08.725 --> 00:01:12.685 talk about economics and how all the trends that we're seeing are 00:01:12.685 --> 00:01:14.155 affecting the chemical industry. 00:01:14.365 --> 00:01:14.815 Today 00:01:14.815 --> 00:01:18.655 we're gonna get a little bit of an insight into that, right? 00:01:18.655 --> 00:01:21.625 We're sitting here midyear 2025. 00:01:22.106 --> 00:01:27.296 Leaders all across every industry are looking ahead to figure out what's 00:01:27.296 --> 00:01:30.866 gonna happen, putting together their business plans and their budgets 00:01:30.866 --> 00:01:32.816 and their forward thinking for 2026. 00:01:32.876 --> 00:01:36.356 And yet we're still wondering how 2025 is gonna play out. 00:01:36.356 --> 00:01:39.146 So that's always an interesting debate and we're gonna talk 00:01:39.146 --> 00:01:40.676 about that and more today. 00:01:41.036 --> 00:01:43.231 Patrick and Jeremy, welcome to The Chemical Show. 00:01:43.992 --> 00:01:44.422 jeremy-bess_1_07-28-2025_140941: Thank you. 00:01:44.422 --> 00:01:45.222 Thanks for having us. 00:01:45.883 --> 00:01:47.533 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: Yeah, super excited to have you here. 00:01:47.533 --> 00:01:51.103 Super excited to have you guys back at The Chemical Summit this year. 00:01:51.103 --> 00:01:52.363 At least it's back for Jeremy. 00:01:52.363 --> 00:01:57.233 So Patrick will be a new addition to this, which is, gonna be great for me and for 00:01:57.233 --> 00:01:59.213 all of our attendees and people there. 00:01:59.213 --> 00:02:00.983 So glad to have you guys part of this. 00:02:01.022 --> 00:02:01.452 jeremy-bess_1_07-28-2025_140941: Thank you. 00:02:01.763 --> 00:02:02.483 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: just start. 00:02:02.503 --> 00:02:03.973 With origin stories. 00:02:05.173 --> 00:02:06.373 Patrick, let's start with you. 00:02:06.493 --> 00:02:12.473 How did you get interested in this wonderful world of economics, and that, 00:02:12.923 --> 00:02:14.303 brought you to where you are today? 00:02:14.749 --> 00:02:17.799 patrick_1_07-28-2025_140941: Well, honestly, so my family is grounded in 00:02:17.799 --> 00:02:23.293 the trades, so my grandfather did floor covering, my dad does floor covering, his 00:02:23.293 --> 00:02:26.263 brothers, my uncles, do floor covering and a few cousins doing floor covering, 00:02:26.263 --> 00:02:28.213 and they tell me my hands are too soft. 00:02:28.573 --> 00:02:30.523 So I had to find a different field. 00:02:30.523 --> 00:02:33.283 And so I went to college and ended up falling in love with economics 00:02:33.283 --> 00:02:37.253 and patterns and trends because of what relationship that has on the 00:02:37.433 --> 00:02:40.154 trades industry and construction and manufacturing, all those things. 00:02:40.393 --> 00:02:44.763 So love a good puzzle and I think the economics is the puzzle for my soft hands. 00:02:45.403 --> 00:02:45.913 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: That's awesome. 00:02:45.993 --> 00:02:46.673 That's really cool. 00:02:46.943 --> 00:02:47.663 Jeremy, how about you? 00:02:48.502 --> 00:02:52.972 jeremy-bess_1_07-28-2025_140941: I got into economics actually in my sophomore 00:02:52.972 --> 00:02:54.592 year, I believe, of high school. 00:02:54.902 --> 00:02:56.829 There was a professor Thomas Gilroy. 00:02:56.829 --> 00:02:57.879 So shout out to him. 00:02:58.239 --> 00:03:01.879 He was basically like, hey, failing. 00:03:01.899 --> 00:03:03.039 You have a lot of energy. 00:03:03.449 --> 00:03:06.869 Maybe stop putting it into going to your car and cranking music really 00:03:06.869 --> 00:03:08.609 loud to bother everyone and maybe 00:03:08.694 --> 00:03:10.284 do an extracurricular activity. 00:03:10.644 --> 00:03:14.014 And so he put me in a, it was like a business 00:03:14.014 --> 00:03:17.244 competition/economics competition. 00:03:17.244 --> 00:03:20.694 So we literally traveled around the state doing like live 00:03:20.694 --> 00:03:23.994 questionnaires, and you get x amount of points for getting them right. 00:03:23.994 --> 00:03:25.344 And then you compete with other schools. 00:03:25.344 --> 00:03:27.144 So we did this for like months. 00:03:27.144 --> 00:03:27.854 In highschool? 00:03:27.854 --> 00:03:28.314 Yeah, yeah. 00:03:28.330 --> 00:03:28.550 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: Huh? 00:03:28.744 --> 00:03:31.414 jeremy-bess_1_07-28-2025_140941: So shout out to Thomas Gilroy 00:03:31.434 --> 00:03:32.754 for getting me into economics. 00:03:32.754 --> 00:03:37.174 It wasn't until, oh gosh, I don't know, probably sophomore year of 00:03:37.174 --> 00:03:41.054 college is when I was like, okay, I'm really committing to this as a degree 00:03:41.074 --> 00:03:44.254 and likely to this as a profession, and it just blossomed from there. 00:03:44.928 --> 00:03:45.398 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: Awesome. 00:03:45.398 --> 00:03:46.678 That's really interesting. 00:03:46.701 --> 00:03:48.921 In fact, my, one of my daughters is starting out, at 00:03:48.921 --> 00:03:50.781 least in economics in college. 00:03:50.781 --> 00:03:55.101 She's heading off to her freshman year at Texas A&M, starting as an economics major. 00:03:55.101 --> 00:03:57.201 And I'm like, economics is gonna be great. 00:03:57.201 --> 00:03:59.271 And she's we'll see. 00:03:59.331 --> 00:04:02.091 It's, in her case it's a pathway to the business school. 00:04:02.465 --> 00:04:02.525 jeremy-bess_1_07-28-2025_140941: Yeah. 00:04:02.525 --> 00:04:03.075 At some places 00:04:03.075 --> 00:04:04.235 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: it is the business school. 00:04:04.251 --> 00:04:06.351 So it's, all kinds of different angles. 00:04:06.351 --> 00:04:09.811 So I'm definitely gonna have her listen to, your interview, so it better be good. 00:04:10.364 --> 00:04:11.744 jeremy-bess_1_07-28-2025_140941: If it's bad, I blame Patrick. 00:04:11.744 --> 00:04:12.254 How about that? 00:04:12.550 --> 00:04:13.120 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: Oh, that's good. 00:04:13.150 --> 00:04:14.320 It's good to have somebody to blame. 00:04:16.000 --> 00:04:19.550 So we are deep into 2025. 00:04:19.570 --> 00:04:25.270 Annual planning cycles are in full swing, and yet we've got lots of volatility, 00:04:25.270 --> 00:04:26.650 lots of noise in the headlines. 00:04:26.770 --> 00:04:32.430 As we record this, the news of the day is that the US and Europe has reached 00:04:32.430 --> 00:04:34.830 some form of agreement on tariffs. 00:04:35.130 --> 00:04:39.420 But in the meantime, with all this uncertainty, how do we plan? 00:04:39.780 --> 00:04:43.210 What is the advice that you guys are giving to your clients as they try 00:04:43.210 --> 00:04:45.400 to make sense of where we are today? 00:04:46.137 --> 00:04:48.137 jeremy-bess_1_07-28-2025_140941: I'll maybe lead off with this and then, you 00:04:48.207 --> 00:04:50.077 know, we can do the classic tag team. 00:04:50.077 --> 00:04:54.797 What's fun about this Victoria is Patrick and I, not only, geez, 00:04:54.797 --> 00:04:56.507 I've known him now for 15 years. 00:04:56.657 --> 00:05:00.587 I'm, Uncle Jeremy to his kids, but I don't know, I don't go so far as 00:05:00.587 --> 00:05:04.587 we finish each other's sentences, we try to, but we do share a wall. 00:05:04.727 --> 00:05:07.657 And so thank God for this wall or else I'd just throw things like 00:05:07.657 --> 00:05:08.767 back and forth at each other. 00:05:08.767 --> 00:05:11.117 So Pat, imagine me throwing something at you. 00:05:11.117 --> 00:05:12.237 I'm gonna go first. 00:05:12.510 --> 00:05:16.620 When we start thinking about planning and, yes, we're mid-year and a lot of folks 00:05:16.620 --> 00:05:20.550 are doing it now or they're heading into the fall planning and, thinking about 26. 00:05:21.180 --> 00:05:22.430 I think the big thing though. 00:05:22.580 --> 00:05:25.860 That we deal with or that a lot of the conversations we're having with 00:05:25.860 --> 00:05:29.140 clients is from a macroeconomic lens. 00:05:29.300 --> 00:05:33.280 So yeah, we can go to our sales team and poke and prod to find 00:05:33.300 --> 00:05:36.530 out what they're feeling and what we've done in the last six months. 00:05:36.530 --> 00:05:37.430 Are we gonna catch up? 00:05:37.430 --> 00:05:39.110 Are we above or, okay. 00:05:39.290 --> 00:05:41.750 we have that, but just from a general. 00:05:42.165 --> 00:05:47.265 are we swimming upstream or downstream is where we come into play and is 00:05:47.265 --> 00:05:51.135 where those conversations maybe in our opinion, where they should start 00:05:51.465 --> 00:05:54.225 is, yeah, what we're doing or where we're going in the next six months is 00:05:54.225 --> 00:05:56.535 important, but where's the macro going? 00:05:56.865 --> 00:06:00.225 Are we dealing with headwinds or are we dealing with tailwinds, 00:06:00.645 --> 00:06:05.392 within maybe the four walls, maybe as the US, maybe as a globe, right? 00:06:05.392 --> 00:06:07.852 We're all being impacted by these things. 00:06:08.142 --> 00:06:13.722 Our thought is best plans are built right here, understanding the environment 00:06:13.842 --> 00:06:15.462 that, that we're operating in, right? 00:06:15.552 --> 00:06:17.652 So we start thinking about those, markets. 00:06:17.652 --> 00:06:21.522 So again, from our perspective, the best plans as we start to think 00:06:21.522 --> 00:06:26.472 as we head out into the future is really from that broad trend level. 00:06:26.752 --> 00:06:29.872 But I'll let Pat kind of circle in here and see if I miss anything on that. 00:06:30.833 --> 00:06:33.173 patrick_1_07-28-2025_140941: it's that fundamental timing is everything. 00:06:33.173 --> 00:06:35.033 Are you swimming upstream or downstream? 00:06:35.033 --> 00:06:36.413 And one of the. 00:06:37.133 --> 00:06:40.853 So many examples of businesses that put together these amazing, 00:06:40.853 --> 00:06:44.573 incredible plans, but at the wrong moment and wrong instant of time. 00:06:44.573 --> 00:06:48.113 I think one that you know Jeremy and I like to talk about is you think back 00:06:48.113 --> 00:06:51.083 to like technological improvements and everything that we've gone over 00:06:51.083 --> 00:06:53.033 the past couple of decades and. 00:06:53.323 --> 00:06:57.253 What we love today, and I know I love this today, is I can go on my phone 00:06:57.253 --> 00:07:01.243 and click and get my Walmart order delivered to my house in 24 hours. 00:07:01.243 --> 00:07:05.053 Amazon's right around the corner, so is Kroger or Uber Eats and all 00:07:05.053 --> 00:07:06.403 these things just at a button click. 00:07:06.643 --> 00:07:11.173 But really when we think about what a wonderful kind of, that is, and the 00:07:11.173 --> 00:07:12.673 planning that went, goes into that. 00:07:12.673 --> 00:07:14.263 This was not a new concept. 00:07:14.503 --> 00:07:18.493 We can date all the way back to the late 1990s and there 00:07:18.493 --> 00:07:19.723 was a company called Webvan. 00:07:20.132 --> 00:07:21.152 jeremy-bess_1_07-28-2025_140941: Yeah, web van. 00:07:21.353 --> 00:07:25.223 patrick_1_07-28-2025_140941: time to try to deploy this idea of online grocery. 00:07:25.223 --> 00:07:29.753 So they received all this funding and they had an IPO and they had tons of equity. 00:07:29.753 --> 00:07:31.283 And then you have this.com 00:07:31.283 --> 00:07:35.873 burst, and then you have, unraveling of the, kind of economic environment 00:07:35.873 --> 00:07:38.783 that was right around the corner and they went on bankrupt in 2001. 00:07:38.783 --> 00:07:41.753 And maybe the consumer wasn't ready for it, but also the economy 00:07:41.753 --> 00:07:45.143 was not at the right moment for that type of level of investment. 00:07:45.233 --> 00:07:46.133 It's a great idea. 00:07:46.343 --> 00:07:47.303 Just wrong timing. 00:07:47.924 --> 00:07:48.374 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: you're right. 00:07:48.374 --> 00:07:50.374 It is all about, timing Is everything. 00:07:50.614 --> 00:07:51.664 like the stock market. 00:07:51.754 --> 00:07:52.894 Timing is everything. 00:07:53.313 --> 00:07:54.183 and yeah. 00:07:54.483 --> 00:07:59.223 so we're there how does this play out when we're looking 00:07:59.223 --> 00:08:01.413 at, how to plan out the year? 00:08:01.413 --> 00:08:02.163 What are you seeing? 00:08:02.523 --> 00:08:06.993 are we facing tailwinds or headwinds, or is it a swirling dervish? 00:08:08.258 --> 00:08:08.378 I. 00:08:09.982 --> 00:08:10.762 jeremy-bess_1_07-28-2025_140941: it's funny you say that. 00:08:11.332 --> 00:08:15.252 Pat and I, went to, Istanbul a couple months ago, so it's funny you say that. 00:08:15.462 --> 00:08:17.472 I never knew what that was until recently. 00:08:18.402 --> 00:08:21.492 I would say if you logged onto any periodical. 00:08:21.752 --> 00:08:26.042 In the last couple months, you would say, oh my gosh, I don't know. 00:08:27.302 --> 00:08:31.352 and, I think, what's funny about that is, I don't know why this became a 00:08:31.352 --> 00:08:36.392 thing maybe over the last six months, but probabilities of something 00:08:36.392 --> 00:08:38.282 happening is what I'm starting to see. 00:08:38.492 --> 00:08:42.912 So like recently you probability of recessions, it spiked, right? 00:08:43.092 --> 00:08:44.832 you go, oh, April happened, may happen. 00:08:44.832 --> 00:08:46.902 We saw this giant spike and the probability of the 00:08:46.902 --> 00:08:48.102 recession happening in the us. 00:08:48.902 --> 00:08:50.942 and then two months later it falls off. 00:08:50.942 --> 00:08:52.202 It's, it comes back down. 00:08:52.412 --> 00:08:56.822 But I don't even know what a probability of a recession of 45% 00:08:56.822 --> 00:09:00.452 means to 55% back down to 30%. 00:09:00.752 --> 00:09:02.792 I don't even know what that meant. 00:09:03.212 --> 00:09:04.442 And, I work in this world, right? 00:09:04.442 --> 00:09:08.792 Like economics is our world and we're doing forecast for the, macro economy. 00:09:08.792 --> 00:09:11.642 So I think when you take a step out, you go, oh my gosh, right? 00:09:11.642 --> 00:09:16.567 It definitely feels There's a lot of moving parts, a lot of, uncertainties. 00:09:16.847 --> 00:09:18.797 That's the word I hear quite often. 00:09:18.947 --> 00:09:20.657 And so yes, that's there. 00:09:20.987 --> 00:09:23.117 But okay, take a step back. 00:09:23.117 --> 00:09:26.447 If we park elections last year, we park the tariffs, and I know 00:09:26.447 --> 00:09:28.757 these are big things to say, oh my gosh, you can't just park those. 00:09:29.087 --> 00:09:32.182 But there are general trends that as we were heading. 00:09:32.502 --> 00:09:36.762 Out of last year into this year that still hold true. 00:09:37.482 --> 00:09:40.002 And, you could be looking, or companies can be looking at 00:09:40.002 --> 00:09:42.222 the same data in the same way. 00:09:42.552 --> 00:09:47.232 So I'll talk a little bit about macro pieces in one second, 00:09:47.232 --> 00:09:48.072 but just so you all know. 00:09:48.792 --> 00:09:52.602 When you are working, in your four walls, these, there's the same 00:09:52.602 --> 00:09:54.702 metrics and so what, are they, pat? 00:09:54.912 --> 00:09:58.092 it's, it's bookings, backlogs, and billings. 00:09:58.542 --> 00:09:59.872 The three Bs. 00:10:00.042 --> 00:10:02.262 The three Bs of business. 00:10:02.552 --> 00:10:06.222 but, and that's, it's similar to what Pat and I are looking at, but maybe not that. 00:10:06.637 --> 00:10:07.327 Small. 00:10:07.327 --> 00:10:09.307 We look at new orders, right? 00:10:09.307 --> 00:10:10.627 So think of that as bookings. 00:10:10.627 --> 00:10:12.307 We look at backlog, right? 00:10:12.307 --> 00:10:14.977 Think of that as, the kind of pent up there. 00:10:15.397 --> 00:10:18.667 And then maybe we start to look at things like profitability 00:10:18.667 --> 00:10:20.317 and such as the bookings, right? 00:10:20.317 --> 00:10:24.187 So we look at all that data and we go, hang on, there were positives 00:10:24.232 --> 00:10:28.327 happening as we head out of last year and we headed into this year. 00:10:29.137 --> 00:10:33.817 and again, if we, think of that as just saying New orders, I think, 00:10:34.037 --> 00:10:38.477 even just June of, this year is year over year growth of, I don't know, 00:10:38.477 --> 00:10:41.717 around 13% on durable goods, right? 00:10:41.717 --> 00:10:44.927 This is growth, double digit growth in durable goods. 00:10:44.927 --> 00:10:45.717 That's really quite high. 00:10:46.172 --> 00:10:48.572 And yet we're going, oh my gosh, the world's ending 00:10:48.572 --> 00:10:50.252 probabilities of recession peaked. 00:10:50.252 --> 00:10:54.622 And you say, yeah, but that trend of growth was already happening. 00:10:54.902 --> 00:10:56.012 Backlogs, right? 00:10:56.012 --> 00:10:59.942 So again, unfilled orders also cyclical rise. 00:10:59.942 --> 00:11:03.672 So things are getting better also year over year growth. 00:11:03.672 --> 00:11:08.642 7% I believe if we look at June of 2025. 00:11:08.642 --> 00:11:10.922 So we have new orders looking pretty good. 00:11:11.207 --> 00:11:12.737 Backlogs are pretty good. 00:11:12.917 --> 00:11:16.277 And then we have to pivot and say, okay, but what about the billings? 00:11:16.337 --> 00:11:18.377 Are we getting money, profitability? 00:11:18.857 --> 00:11:22.217 again, profitability's up in the US and again, there's 00:11:22.217 --> 00:11:23.477 multiple ways of looking at it. 00:11:23.477 --> 00:11:25.337 Non-financial, corporate profits. 00:11:25.397 --> 00:11:28.127 We look at, excluding taxes, all these things. 00:11:28.422 --> 00:11:30.402 Go ahead, look at it in multiple lenses. 00:11:30.402 --> 00:11:33.132 We're still talking about year over year growth. 00:11:33.702 --> 00:11:38.712 if we think about the non-financial side, you're looking at Q1 growth, it was 8%. 00:11:38.742 --> 00:11:42.042 That was Q1 of this year, and that was right around the time where 00:11:42.042 --> 00:11:43.302 everyone thought the world was ending. 00:11:43.632 --> 00:11:48.912 And I go, okay, before we dive into any other, concepts, those three. 00:11:49.427 --> 00:11:55.367 We're suggesting already that 2025 was looking to be a reasonable year and 00:11:55.637 --> 00:11:59.627 we'll, we'll caveat that and put it into context maybe in a little bit. 00:11:59.627 --> 00:12:04.397 But just to start off there, those three pieces, not too shabby and, 00:12:04.967 --> 00:12:07.697 I'm sure, Patrick's biting at the bit here to say, okay, wait, are there, 00:12:07.697 --> 00:12:11.207 were there other things and are there other things that suggest where 00:12:11.207 --> 00:12:15.257 we're gonna round out this year where we're probably heading into 2026? 00:12:16.018 --> 00:12:19.018 patrick_1_07-28-2025_140941: He is a, fire hose of information, 00:12:19.018 --> 00:12:20.368 but, we, aren't dancers. 00:12:20.368 --> 00:12:24.508 We have two less feet, so no whirling and dervish on our ends, but with that 00:12:24.508 --> 00:12:29.839 said, there is a lot of optimistic information that we see showcasing 00:12:29.839 --> 00:12:31.669 throughout the remainder of 2025. 00:12:31.669 --> 00:12:34.669 The US economy is an aircraft carrier, right? 00:12:34.669 --> 00:12:36.079 It does not turn on a dime. 00:12:36.409 --> 00:12:40.159 So all these signals have been manifesting throughout the course of 00:12:40.159 --> 00:12:45.439 this year suggesting modest mild growth for 2025, and what Jeremy and I have 00:12:45.439 --> 00:12:51.229 been telling our clients to plan for is additional modest mild growth in 2026. 00:12:51.229 --> 00:12:53.179 That's not to say there aren't headwinds, right? 00:12:53.179 --> 00:12:56.479 There are absolutely headwinds showcasing themselves for 2026. 00:12:56.479 --> 00:13:01.159 We are highly scrutinizing our outlooks for 2026 based on these. 00:13:01.159 --> 00:13:03.799 And so this is where you do come in and say, gosh, what 00:13:03.799 --> 00:13:05.059 are some of those measures? 00:13:05.089 --> 00:13:07.429 What are some of the things that we can peak out into the future? 00:13:07.429 --> 00:13:09.469 The leading indicators into that year? 00:13:09.469 --> 00:13:13.879 And again, it is mixed a nd that makes the economist job very difficult. 00:13:13.879 --> 00:13:17.929 It's easy to be pessimistic and say, gosh, if I'm pessimistic 00:13:17.959 --> 00:13:19.189 and I'm right, then I'm right. 00:13:19.189 --> 00:13:21.829 And if I'm pessimistic and I'm wrong, then you know, things are great, 00:13:22.129 --> 00:13:23.509 but that's not helpful for planning. 00:13:23.599 --> 00:13:28.909 And so we do want to be very mindful what our forecast for 2026 is showcasing, 00:13:29.119 --> 00:13:32.539 and that is underpinned by a lot of these longer term indicators, like 00:13:32.539 --> 00:13:35.379 the bond market, like the money supply, like global liquidity. 00:13:36.129 --> 00:13:37.419 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: Yeah that's interesting. 00:13:37.739 --> 00:13:40.713 Are there, I've got a couple questions now as per usual. 00:13:40.943 --> 00:13:45.593 But let's talk maybe globally, let's just put a quick global lens on this. 00:13:45.593 --> 00:13:51.503 So modest growth in the US and we can probably roll Canada and 00:13:51.503 --> 00:13:55.226 North America into that 'cause we all seem flow the same way. 00:13:55.496 --> 00:13:57.986 How are you seeing the global effects? 00:13:57.986 --> 00:14:00.866 Because, we have a lot of conversation about China is what 00:14:00.866 --> 00:14:04.676 China is and what China is not, what Europe is and what Europe is not. 00:14:05.336 --> 00:14:06.596 Anything stand out there? 00:14:07.915 --> 00:14:09.925 jeremy-bess_1_07-28-2025_140941: I think the one piece is just to that 00:14:09.925 --> 00:14:14.785 point, like the world is being impacted by what we do within the world, right? 00:14:14.875 --> 00:14:16.045 So we're all impacted. 00:14:16.045 --> 00:14:18.535 What happens overseas impacts us, what happens to the US impacts 00:14:18.535 --> 00:14:19.675 overseas, so on and so forth. 00:14:20.515 --> 00:14:25.305 you think about Canada, they actually are slightly, I guess diverting from, 00:14:25.755 --> 00:14:29.055 if you go back a year ago and say, Hey, you know what the US is doing, 00:14:29.055 --> 00:14:32.625 what Canada, is gonna play out and they're performing a little bit worse, 00:14:32.625 --> 00:14:38.445 maybe because of, some of the trade implications or just they're highly, 00:14:38.445 --> 00:14:42.015 dependent on commodities and, things like that, which is gonna impact them worse. 00:14:42.015 --> 00:14:43.006 But if we think about. 00:14:43.420 --> 00:14:45.790 Business cycles and we think about, wait, hang on. 00:14:45.940 --> 00:14:51.040 Most of the world was in cyclical decline last year heading into 2025. 00:14:51.460 --> 00:14:55.720 Most of the world still is, but then you go, okay, we don't live down there. 00:14:55.750 --> 00:14:59.980 We don't live at the, in contraction or just slowing growth forever. 00:15:00.130 --> 00:15:03.490 There's a point at which you hit a bottom and you start to rise again. 00:15:03.490 --> 00:15:07.450 So even just from that perspective, it would be abnormal 00:15:07.450 --> 00:15:09.640 to continue on this trajectory. 00:15:09.690 --> 00:15:13.200 Another year, even if you say, heading into 2026. 00:15:13.800 --> 00:15:15.390 And you, so you think about Europe again. 00:15:16.050 --> 00:15:18.510 some, nations are year over year growth contracting. 00:15:19.290 --> 00:15:21.480 and again, it depends on how you're looking at your GDP 00:15:21.660 --> 00:15:23.220 measures or production measures. 00:15:23.220 --> 00:15:26.130 Generally, though, a lot of those, countries are dealing 00:15:26.490 --> 00:15:28.800 contraction just like the US. 00:15:29.085 --> 00:15:29.685 Pretty much did. 00:15:29.685 --> 00:15:33.255 If you think about the manufacturing side of the US was already doing 00:15:33.435 --> 00:15:36.945 towards the end of last year as we headed into early this year, and now 00:15:36.945 --> 00:15:40.725 all of a sudden you're starting to see year over year growth levels, very 00:15:40.725 --> 00:15:42.615 modest, year over year growth levels. 00:15:42.825 --> 00:15:47.145 But we still surpassed the zero line, and yet we're all going, ah, things 00:15:47.145 --> 00:15:48.346 are really negative, blah, blah, blah. 00:15:48.855 --> 00:15:49.125 Okay. 00:15:49.245 --> 00:15:52.845 But we're starting to see that cyclical rise, not just in 00:15:52.845 --> 00:15:54.525 the US but in other places. 00:15:54.975 --> 00:15:55.215 yes. 00:15:56.095 --> 00:15:57.715 Keeping an eye on China, right? 00:15:57.775 --> 00:16:00.805 Huge economy, largest manufacturer in the world. 00:16:00.985 --> 00:16:04.735 We're second, by the way, in the us, but still really, big. 00:16:04.795 --> 00:16:10.135 And still understanding where that's going is important, but there's a lot at play. 00:16:10.135 --> 00:16:12.595 You think of Europe and si heading into cyclical rise. 00:16:12.595 --> 00:16:17.545 You think of the US heading into cyclical rise again, Canada lagging a little bit. 00:16:17.545 --> 00:16:22.255 This go around probably more impacted by these trade implications and commodities. 00:16:22.255 --> 00:16:25.405 But globally, we should start seeing these things. 00:16:25.405 --> 00:16:29.165 You're seeing interest rates slowly drop in Europe. 00:16:29.195 --> 00:16:31.610 You're seeing, global liquidity. 00:16:32.100 --> 00:16:33.840 Starting to really ramp up. 00:16:34.020 --> 00:16:38.520 And I think that's giving us some, if I was to pick one good green indicator, 00:16:38.520 --> 00:16:42.840 I would say that one's, giving me a, one that would say that's looking 00:16:42.840 --> 00:16:44.880 good for the next six to 12 months. 00:16:45.210 --> 00:16:46.080 global liquidity. 00:16:46.396 --> 00:16:47.476 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: the global liquidity. 00:16:47.940 --> 00:16:48.300 jeremy-bess_1_07-28-2025_140941: Yeah. 00:16:48.646 --> 00:16:49.066 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: Yeah. 00:16:49.438 --> 00:16:51.748 Hey, Patrick, what's your take on this? 00:16:52.948 --> 00:16:55.258 are, you and Jeremy aligned on this or 00:16:55.443 --> 00:16:55.833 patrick_1_07-28-2025_140941: We, 00:16:55.978 --> 00:16:56.968 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: the next piece of it? 00:16:57.903 --> 00:16:58.143 patrick_1_07-28-2025_140941: we are. 00:16:58.143 --> 00:16:58.773 We absolutely are. 00:16:58.773 --> 00:16:59.824 I think the piece where I can. 00:17:00.588 --> 00:17:04.668 Again, we try not to be the two handed economist, but we do tell 00:17:04.668 --> 00:17:06.708 folks to stress test their outlooks, 00:17:06.777 --> 00:17:07.067 jeremy-bess_1_07-28-2025_140941: Yeah. 00:17:07.253 --> 00:17:07.543 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: Yeah. 00:17:07.668 --> 00:17:09.918 patrick_1_07-28-2025_140941: testing is to run scenario analysis and make sure that 00:17:09.918 --> 00:17:12.198 they're planning for what if scenarios. 00:17:12.198 --> 00:17:16.668 We come in with a base case scenario based upon structural trends, real hard data. 00:17:16.988 --> 00:17:19.598 But gosh, you do need to have contingencies in place. 00:17:19.598 --> 00:17:22.778 What executive strategies, what management solutions can you be deploying 00:17:23.018 --> 00:17:25.058 to be a bit more resilient to plan? 00:17:25.058 --> 00:17:28.868 And I think a big piece of that is to run business case analysis to say, should 00:17:28.868 --> 00:17:32.708 I be making my investments the interest rate environment, it's been pretty 00:17:32.708 --> 00:17:34.808 sticky in the United States globally. 00:17:34.808 --> 00:17:38.033 You look at central banks, they're easing and softening, but we are in a higher. 00:17:38.993 --> 00:17:41.633 rate environment than we've experienced in quite a bit of time. 00:17:41.633 --> 00:17:43.193 So now there needs to be more scrutiny. 00:17:43.193 --> 00:17:45.983 We're not saying don't invest, but we are saying make sure that 00:17:45.983 --> 00:17:47.243 you are running your analysis. 00:17:47.243 --> 00:17:50.513 Make sure you're looking at the business case, looking at the return. 00:17:50.873 --> 00:17:53.633 Return on investment in evaluating alternatives. 00:17:53.633 --> 00:17:56.543 And then if you think about trying to shrug off some of those headwinds, it 00:17:56.543 --> 00:18:00.688 is finding new ways to grow, whether it's diversifying product streams, or 00:18:00.688 --> 00:18:02.723 leveraging new markets of interest. 00:18:03.218 --> 00:18:10.088 What sorts of, diligence should you be doing today to better prepare for 2026? 00:18:10.573 --> 00:18:11.803 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: Yeah, that's great. 00:18:11.803 --> 00:18:15.463 And in fact, that's some of the things, I know you guys work broadly across 00:18:15.463 --> 00:18:19.243 industries, but that's some of the same, the very same things that I've been 00:18:19.243 --> 00:18:23.653 advising chemical companies to do and that, the successful chemical leaders 00:18:23.653 --> 00:18:24.913 I've been talking with have been doing. 00:18:25.273 --> 00:18:29.323 we talk about scenario planning coming into 2025. 00:18:30.133 --> 00:18:32.533 whole lot of uncertainty around tariffs. 00:18:32.928 --> 00:18:41.448 it appears that tariffs are settling down, or at least becoming known here in, 2025. 00:18:42.228 --> 00:18:45.288 There's always room for change, right? 00:18:45.498 --> 00:18:48.918 Alas, that there's always room for change, but understanding what, how you're gonna 00:18:48.918 --> 00:18:50.728 respond, in different environments. 00:18:50.758 --> 00:18:53.128 'cause of course, things change along the way. 00:18:53.954 --> 00:18:56.864 I think one of the things that's interesting and, this I think 00:18:56.864 --> 00:19:00.174 falls definitely into the, economist camp, in my opinion, 00:19:00.784 --> 00:19:03.084 which is around policy influences. 00:19:03.104 --> 00:19:07.714 So I think if we look at what's happened, this year a big policy influence 00:19:07.714 --> 00:19:12.274 has been not just around tariffs, but around a changing point of view, 00:19:12.274 --> 00:19:15.009 both US and Europe, around, energy. 00:19:16.144 --> 00:19:21.454 Energy subsidies, the role of sustainability and more, what are the 00:19:21.454 --> 00:19:28.084 big policy pieces that you guys are watching as you try to think about how 00:19:28.084 --> 00:19:30.214 this, world may evolve and move forward? 00:19:30.528 --> 00:19:31.638 patrick_1_07-28-2025_140941: Yeah, I think the big one is 00:19:31.638 --> 00:19:32.928 obviously in the United States. 00:19:32.928 --> 00:19:36.108 We were talking about the tax bill, a big, beautiful bill that just got 00:19:36.108 --> 00:19:37.948 unleashed, just a couple weeks ago. 00:19:37.948 --> 00:19:40.708 I think there's a lot to unpack in there. 00:19:41.068 --> 00:19:44.218 And so you can think about just the near term effects of that and 00:19:44.218 --> 00:19:45.928 the long term effects of that. 00:19:45.928 --> 00:19:49.828 And in from a kind of that economic lens, there's a lot of policies in 00:19:49.828 --> 00:19:54.208 place intended to juice innovation, intended to juice, investment into the 00:19:54.208 --> 00:19:56.938 US economy intended to try and stimulate. 00:19:57.158 --> 00:20:04.268 Growth and that, bodes well for some of those kind of more, tailwinds for 2026. 00:20:04.598 --> 00:20:08.678 we don't have a full formalized analysis on every single policy that's in there 00:20:08.678 --> 00:20:10.508 yet, but it's one that we're diving into. 00:20:10.508 --> 00:20:13.748 But when we think about what it means from a government standpoint to try 00:20:13.748 --> 00:20:18.858 and, extend tax price for, extend tax cuts, or also, increase government 00:20:18.858 --> 00:20:23.628 spending and offer further incentives into R&D, all of that is intended to. 00:20:24.278 --> 00:20:26.618 Spur the economy, add growth, and the. 00:20:27.323 --> 00:20:29.423 Again, consequence of that is more long term. 00:20:29.423 --> 00:20:32.663 Thinking about some of the more structural components of our economy 00:20:32.663 --> 00:20:36.863 is increasing deficit spending and at an increasing rate and what that means 00:20:36.863 --> 00:20:41.823 for, challenges in headwinds further out into the back half of this decade. 00:20:41.823 --> 00:20:45.243 When we talk about debt to GDP ratio growing, and I think one that is 00:20:45.843 --> 00:20:48.753 even of more interest to Jeremy and I is, what's going on with interest 00:20:48.753 --> 00:20:50.013 payments from the federal government? 00:20:50.013 --> 00:20:53.523 You're now having all these additional dollars being spent on 00:20:53.523 --> 00:20:55.053 past production, not for production. 00:20:55.053 --> 00:20:58.458 And I say past, it'll be, past will be 2026 production. 00:20:58.458 --> 00:21:00.878 So you have all these interest payments blowing right through a 00:21:00.878 --> 00:21:04.028 trillion dollars and further beyond that, and the interesting measures 00:21:04.268 --> 00:21:08.768 when you look at interest payments as a percentage of defense spending. 00:21:09.068 --> 00:21:12.698 And the Hoover Institute has a really interesting piece on that measure 00:21:12.698 --> 00:21:16.418 specifically that says, once interest payments from a federal government budget 00:21:16.688 --> 00:21:20.498 exceeds defense spending, meaning it's, above a hundred percent defense spending. 00:21:20.683 --> 00:21:24.763 You start to see a more tricky geopolitical climate, and you can 00:21:24.763 --> 00:21:26.263 look at like late 15 hundreds. 00:21:26.263 --> 00:21:30.773 Spains, the Hasburgs ran into that late 17 hundreds, France and Napoleonic 00:21:30.793 --> 00:21:34.393 era, and then even, Britain, the challenges that they face at the end 00:21:34.393 --> 00:21:36.283 of the 19th and into the 20th century. 00:21:36.283 --> 00:21:40.993 And so it's a very interesting measure one that you know is on our minds 00:21:40.993 --> 00:21:44.143 as we peek into the future and say, gosh, what's happening to our deficit 00:21:44.143 --> 00:21:46.423 spending at higher interest levels? 00:21:46.423 --> 00:21:50.173 And what does that mean for just a tensor geopolitical situation? 00:21:50.538 --> 00:21:52.398 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: How do, how close are we getting 00:21:53.178 --> 00:21:54.993 from a interest versus defense? 00:21:55.302 --> 00:21:55.522 jeremy-bess_1_07-28-2025_140941: We. 00:21:55.753 --> 00:21:56.923 patrick_1_07-28-2025_140941: we did exceed it in 00:21:57.002 --> 00:21:58.042 jeremy-bess_1_07-28-2025_140941: We succeeded it, 00:21:58.042 --> 00:21:58.222 We 00:21:58.222 --> 00:21:59.293 patrick_1_07-28-2025_140941: are above a hundred percent. 00:21:59.773 --> 00:22:02.923 And so that's like kind of that trigger point that says, gosh, now there's some 00:22:02.923 --> 00:22:06.103 more, risk of geopolitical challenges. 00:22:06.913 --> 00:22:07.213 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: Got it. 00:22:08.066 --> 00:22:08.836 That's interesting. 00:22:10.636 --> 00:22:11.861 so what's a chemical? 00:22:12.571 --> 00:22:13.261 Yeah, go ahead. 00:22:13.716 --> 00:22:15.216 patrick_1_07-28-2025_140941: I was gonna say Ger, Jeremy's got the 00:22:15.216 --> 00:22:19.446 optimist hat on, and I'll come in with a little bit more, grounding, but 00:22:19.925 --> 00:22:20.135 jeremy-bess_1_07-28-2025_140941: but. 00:22:20.136 --> 00:22:21.131 patrick_1_07-28-2025_140941: something that we think about. 00:22:22.280 --> 00:22:25.070 jeremy-bess_1_07-28-2025_140941: I think what ends up happening is I'm just 00:22:25.070 --> 00:22:30.440 more optimistic no matter what, phase we're in, the business cycle, right? 00:22:30.590 --> 00:22:35.120 it's so he, so Pat mentioned deficit spending and we go, 00:22:35.120 --> 00:22:36.140 okay, what does that do? 00:22:36.140 --> 00:22:40.040 And you go, oh, that long term can increase inflation, right? 00:22:40.040 --> 00:22:42.080 More money chasing the same amount of goods, right? 00:22:42.080 --> 00:22:43.730 That puts upside pressure on pricing. 00:22:43.730 --> 00:22:46.610 Like these are core things that are happening, but at the same 00:22:46.610 --> 00:22:49.025 time, that could bolster sales. 00:22:49.025 --> 00:22:52.565 Now profitability is a whole nother thing, but if you start to think 00:22:53.015 --> 00:22:56.855 about, what it can do to sales, that can buffer, some levels of growth. 00:22:56.915 --> 00:23:00.515 Shout out to those folks that are doing their 2026 planning 00:23:00.515 --> 00:23:02.225 and only looking at the top line. 00:23:02.255 --> 00:23:04.185 Please, drill into your P&L. 00:23:04.455 --> 00:23:05.988 There's some magical things that happen. 00:23:05.988 --> 00:23:10.378 All of a sudden you go, oh geez, I'm that, Two, early two, 00:23:10.468 --> 00:23:12.058 or Yeah, early two thousands. 00:23:12.058 --> 00:23:15.358 Company who, unfortunately went bankrupt. 00:23:15.958 --> 00:23:17.038 Webvan, I believe, right Pat? 00:23:17.038 --> 00:23:17.553 That's what it was called. 00:23:18.004 --> 00:23:18.454 patrick_1_07-28-2025_140941: What, van? 00:23:18.844 --> 00:23:19.134 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: Yeah. 00:23:19.698 --> 00:23:20.988 jeremy-bess_1_07-28-2025_140941: but, when I think about the 00:23:20.988 --> 00:23:25.548 chemical industry, I go, oh, the inflation's like already happening. 00:23:25.968 --> 00:23:29.958 We're, starting to see, chemicals, the producer price index for 00:23:29.988 --> 00:23:31.578 chemicals and allied products, right? 00:23:31.578 --> 00:23:34.038 It's kinda a broad measure Of, of chemicals. 00:23:34.248 --> 00:23:36.678 It was negative as we were in 2024. 00:23:36.678 --> 00:23:40.188 We're starting to get a little bit positive as we head into this year. 00:23:40.308 --> 00:23:42.258 It's bouncing around the zero line. 00:23:42.528 --> 00:23:46.728 Our outlook as we head into 2026 is more inflation. 00:23:46.878 --> 00:23:50.058 Our outlook into 2027 is similar to that. 00:23:50.448 --> 00:23:53.718 So we're talking about higher levels of inflation as well. 00:23:54.493 --> 00:23:57.343 I don't know, he just, he's painting the picture that, that 00:23:57.343 --> 00:23:59.383 this deficit spending is an issue. 00:23:59.383 --> 00:24:03.343 And yes, it absolutely is likely one of those levers that will 00:24:03.343 --> 00:24:05.443 drive higher levels of, inflation. 00:24:05.443 --> 00:24:05.473 I. 00:24:06.159 --> 00:24:08.589 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: Yeah, so higher inflation 00:24:08.589 --> 00:24:10.569 related to the chemical industry. 00:24:11.591 --> 00:24:13.601 Good for pricing, bad for volumes. 00:24:13.781 --> 00:24:15.161 is that the way to think about it? 00:24:16.110 --> 00:24:18.780 jeremy-bess_1_07-28-2025_140941: I think the, the hardest part companies are gonna 00:24:18.780 --> 00:24:24.667 have trying to pass on the raw pricing of commodities that we're expected to have an 00:24:24.667 --> 00:24:30.067 increase on and pass it on to your clients and customers in a very meaningful way. 00:24:30.067 --> 00:24:33.187 I think gone are the days where you just slap broad percentages 00:24:33.812 --> 00:24:34.862 to it and you call it a day. 00:24:35.192 --> 00:24:38.432 This is on the heels of some of the highest levels of inflation 00:24:38.432 --> 00:24:39.692 we've dealt with in decades. 00:24:39.692 --> 00:24:44.942 So smart strategic pricing is probably gonna be something that I think folks 00:24:44.942 --> 00:24:48.452 are gonna have to put more of an eye on than maybe they have probably 00:24:48.452 --> 00:24:50.612 in the last 20 years, and maybe 00:24:51.012 --> 00:24:53.142 more bites more often, right? 00:24:53.142 --> 00:24:56.542 So you're not doing these sticker shock moments, to your 00:24:56.542 --> 00:24:58.402 customers small bites more often. 00:24:58.552 --> 00:25:02.932 Not that we're saying to dupe your clients, but small bites more often lets 00:25:02.932 --> 00:25:09.862 people deal and have a, a larger appetite for accepting those price increases. 00:25:09.862 --> 00:25:12.652 It's a common thing that the restaurant industry will, generally try to do. 00:25:13.478 --> 00:25:14.488 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: Yeah, absolutely. 00:25:14.668 --> 00:25:18.391 And I think that's one of those, areas that people are talking 00:25:18.391 --> 00:25:23.491 about today, how do they adjust and accrue pricing appropriately? 00:25:23.701 --> 00:25:25.471 How do you create value beyond pricing? 00:25:25.471 --> 00:25:29.761 Because of course, one of the challenges across the industry is that, there's 00:25:29.761 --> 00:25:33.721 a lot of oversupply depending on what part of the market you're in. 00:25:33.721 --> 00:25:37.471 So you know it costs are going up, demand is going down. 00:25:37.471 --> 00:25:39.721 You're in the squeeze because of the oversupply. 00:25:39.961 --> 00:25:44.581 So finding the right paths through it, and yet, still wants 00:25:44.581 --> 00:25:45.961 to be covering their costs. 00:25:46.021 --> 00:25:49.921 As an employee, you still would like to make more money next year. 00:25:49.921 --> 00:25:51.721 You would like to still have some of the same 00:25:51.886 --> 00:25:54.256 perks, whether it be travel, benefits, other 00:25:54.460 --> 00:25:54.640 jeremy-bess_1_07-28-2025_140941: Sure. 00:25:55.966 --> 00:25:57.946 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: there's a, lot of, factors that 00:25:57.946 --> 00:26:00.286 go into play into all of it. 00:26:00.663 --> 00:26:03.048 just in terms of this whole decision making process. 00:26:04.012 --> 00:26:04.492 jeremy-bess_1_07-28-2025_140941: Yeah. 00:26:04.897 --> 00:26:09.007 If I can just say though, another, again, may, it's maybe hard for me 00:26:09.127 --> 00:26:13.987 to not be somewhat optimistic in, in, in the more intermediate term is, you 00:26:13.987 --> 00:26:16.507 just mentioned the, wage aspect of it. 00:26:16.507 --> 00:26:18.427 So the health of the consumer, right? 00:26:18.427 --> 00:26:21.097 And you go, my gosh, wages are pretty strong. 00:26:21.337 --> 00:26:23.797 Even if you adjust them for inflation. 00:26:23.797 --> 00:26:28.147 You're talking about real median earnings, year over year growth of, 3.5% 00:26:28.387 --> 00:26:30.627 that's on top of inflation. 00:26:30.627 --> 00:26:31.887 So I guess. 00:26:32.272 --> 00:26:34.912 Like another green check to say, the US. 00:26:35.457 --> 00:26:39.777 Consumer is, broadly speaking, what drives most of the US economic growth. 00:26:39.777 --> 00:26:42.747 So you look at the consumer, how they're doing, even financially, 00:26:42.927 --> 00:26:44.847 delinquency rates, not too shabby. 00:26:45.027 --> 00:26:46.527 Wages pretty darn good. 00:26:47.037 --> 00:26:53.127 That should support some levels of positive outlook as we head into 2026. 00:26:53.367 --> 00:26:56.977 So just, layering that on a little bit there, to further give 00:26:56.977 --> 00:26:58.627 evidence for the growth side. 00:26:59.537 --> 00:27:04.007 So that maybe will offset some of the downside pressures that, that, inflation 00:27:04.007 --> 00:27:06.337 will inevitably have, on your P&L. 00:27:06.964 --> 00:27:08.674 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: we, maybe we've already touched on this, but I'm 00:27:08.674 --> 00:27:10.144 gonna throw this question out there. 00:27:10.144 --> 00:27:11.644 We can cut it if we need to. 00:27:12.934 --> 00:27:16.714 we talked before when we were, doing our little prep around, how you guys 00:27:16.714 --> 00:27:21.404 really look at hard financial data, and less on sentiment indicators 00:27:21.404 --> 00:27:22.364 when you're making forecasts. 00:27:22.364 --> 00:27:27.754 So you've already talked about this whole, we're now, looking at the likelihood 00:27:27.754 --> 00:27:31.954 of a recession and probability models, which somewhat seem sentiment based. 00:27:32.134 --> 00:27:34.624 I think it's maybe trying to make something that's a 00:27:34.624 --> 00:27:36.904 sentiment more of a hard number. 00:27:37.214 --> 00:27:39.974 But what are the, what's the hard financials that you guys are 00:27:39.974 --> 00:27:43.094 looking at when you're looking at what's going on in the market? 00:27:43.094 --> 00:27:46.604 What should chemical leaders be looking at when they're trying to 00:27:46.604 --> 00:27:52.514 predict what's going on, and how to adapt and adjust as the world does? 00:27:53.264 --> 00:27:54.824 patrick_1_07-28-2025_140941: Yeah, so I would say we've 00:27:54.824 --> 00:27:56.054 hit on a few of 'em, right? 00:27:56.264 --> 00:28:00.044 The, three Bs of businesses, backlogs, bookings, billings, and just how that 00:28:00.044 --> 00:28:01.449 relates to the overall macro economy. 00:28:02.214 --> 00:28:06.114 Corporate finances is obviously something that we've talked about already too, cash 00:28:06.114 --> 00:28:07.794 on hand profitability, things like that. 00:28:07.794 --> 00:28:11.484 But we've mentioned the consumer and so I'd love to talk about hard data 00:28:11.484 --> 00:28:15.234 from the consumer because the consumer health is what really is fundamental 00:28:15.234 --> 00:28:18.624 to growing the US economy 'cause we are such a consumer driven economy. 00:28:18.624 --> 00:28:20.424 And so we can look at the financial health. 00:28:20.794 --> 00:28:23.374 Of the consumer and say, how are they doing right now? 00:28:23.404 --> 00:28:26.974 And I know a lot of the sentiment is like, gosh, things are terrible. 00:28:26.974 --> 00:28:30.694 We are uncertain about the overall economic climate, so 00:28:30.694 --> 00:28:31.864 we don't wanna spend our money. 00:28:32.164 --> 00:28:33.904 And yet that's not quite what we're seeing. 00:28:33.904 --> 00:28:37.144 We can look at retail sales and say, no, we absolutely are spending our money. 00:28:37.144 --> 00:28:40.594 We can look at the, say credit card situation. 00:28:40.594 --> 00:28:46.624 And I know the really popular, headline is, oh, the US credit card, balances 00:28:46.704 --> 00:28:46.994 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: Yeah. 00:28:47.314 --> 00:28:48.064 patrick_1_07-28-2025_140941: high levels. 00:28:48.439 --> 00:28:51.319 And yeah, that's, absolutely true, but that statement's 00:28:51.319 --> 00:28:52.639 almost always true, right? 00:28:52.639 --> 00:28:56.059 We are almost always at record high levels of credit card debt every single month. 00:28:56.539 --> 00:29:00.409 it's the, reality is, what is our ability to service that credit card 00:29:00.409 --> 00:29:00.709 debt? 00:29:01.159 --> 00:29:04.339 have seen a rise in credit card delinquency rates. 00:29:04.339 --> 00:29:08.509 Starting in 2022 as interest rates started to really ratchet upwards. 00:29:09.079 --> 00:29:11.269 and they've since really started to plateau. 00:29:11.269 --> 00:29:15.739 And that rise commenced for in 22, was, lasted all the way through 2324. 00:29:15.739 --> 00:29:21.889 But that plateau is occurring around 3% of a credit card delinquency rate, 00:29:21.979 --> 00:29:26.839 which when you compare that to history, say pre great recession, which was 5%. 00:29:26.899 --> 00:29:29.269 So yes, things are getting worse. 00:29:29.339 --> 00:29:33.214 But kind of peeking out at a much lower level than what we saw 00:29:33.214 --> 00:29:35.014 before, a great financial crisis. 00:29:35.014 --> 00:29:37.444 And then we can talk about the wage environment. 00:29:37.444 --> 00:29:40.204 We can talk about the employment environment and say that things 00:29:40.204 --> 00:29:41.644 are still looking decent there. 00:29:41.644 --> 00:29:44.734 We're not saying things are all rosy and peachy, and I know we are. 00:29:45.439 --> 00:29:47.569 I try to say this and emphasize this all the time. 00:29:47.569 --> 00:29:49.669 Jeremy and I, we are macro economists. 00:29:49.669 --> 00:29:54.949 We zoom out at a 30,000 foot level and we look at data very unemotionally. 00:29:54.979 --> 00:29:55.339 We are 00:29:55.339 --> 00:29:55.969 robots. 00:29:55.969 --> 00:29:57.979 We have no, no friends, no fun. 00:29:58.009 --> 00:30:01.249 We are robots, but that's ultimately what we're doing is zooming out. 00:30:01.249 --> 00:30:05.569 I know there's a lot of bifurcation within the economy between low wage 00:30:05.574 --> 00:30:08.329 earners and high wage earners, and that's all a bit more in the weed. 00:30:08.359 --> 00:30:12.529 So when we zoom out for the overall macro economy, things are looking okay from 00:30:12.529 --> 00:30:17.569 a consumer standpoint, not an a plus by any means, but, thinking about the report 00:30:17.569 --> 00:30:20.869 card C to B, maybe as Jeremy says, C'S 00:30:21.033 --> 00:30:22.863 jeremy-bess_1_07-28-2025_140941: C Cs get degrees. 00:30:22.863 --> 00:30:23.913 Cs got degrees. 00:30:24.089 --> 00:30:26.909 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: But do they get hired is the question? 00:30:27.918 --> 00:30:29.868 jeremy-bess_1_07-28-2025_140941: I think that's, I think that's the key though, 00:30:29.868 --> 00:30:34.488 is if we think, wait, you're telling me that consumer's A, a, a C or a B. 00:30:35.238 --> 00:30:40.428 But where we are coming off of these huge, this, huge growth that happened 00:30:40.428 --> 00:30:42.138 in the US economy a couple years ago. 00:30:42.138 --> 00:30:44.448 We've started to, unwind that growth 00:30:44.448 --> 00:30:46.488 and in many markets we went negative. 00:30:46.908 --> 00:30:48.408 And now we go, okay, where are we? 00:30:48.828 --> 00:30:54.918 that's way different than other, recessionary periods where, oh my gosh, 00:30:54.918 --> 00:30:57.948 on the backside of the business cycle when we were approaching the bottom. 00:30:58.558 --> 00:31:00.118 The consumer was a D, right? 00:31:00.268 --> 00:31:00.898 or an F. 00:31:01.198 --> 00:31:03.628 And, if you think about the Great recession and, you're getting 00:31:03.628 --> 00:31:05.068 kicked outta school, right? 00:31:05.068 --> 00:31:07.138 So I think, it's very different. 00:31:07.138 --> 00:31:08.368 Context is key. 00:31:08.698 --> 00:31:11.998 It's why we were supporting, hey, this backside of the business 00:31:11.998 --> 00:31:13.288 cycle is not gonna be as bad. 00:31:13.288 --> 00:31:15.418 The consumer's in a very different position. 00:31:16.258 --> 00:31:18.628 and now we're starting to say, where are we going? 00:31:18.868 --> 00:31:22.828 That linear planning or linear thinking, if that's what we're gonna 00:31:22.828 --> 00:31:28.168 be doing as leaders, I think will get us in trouble if we go, 2024 was. 00:31:28.578 --> 00:31:30.048 we were swimming upstream. 00:31:30.048 --> 00:31:32.448 2025 really hasn't been much better. 00:31:32.748 --> 00:31:36.738 I'm gonna be planning for that in 2026 and 2027, and I'm gonna sit 00:31:36.738 --> 00:31:41.955 there and say, geez, that's multiple years decline or swimming upstream if 00:31:41.955 --> 00:31:43.635 that's what you're, wanna, call it. 00:31:43.995 --> 00:31:47.115 That's usually unlikely in the US right? 00:31:47.115 --> 00:31:49.335 We would likely be more closer to the bottom. 00:31:49.895 --> 00:31:52.095 And so I think context is key. 00:31:52.095 --> 00:31:56.645 The consumer being at a a C or a B in the backside of the business cycle 00:31:56.645 --> 00:31:58.210 is actually a, pretty good feat. 00:31:59.111 --> 00:32:00.791 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: Yeah, that's actually, that's a good 00:32:00.791 --> 00:32:03.471 reflection and a good lens on this. 00:32:03.471 --> 00:32:04.461 'cause I think you're right. 00:32:06.111 --> 00:32:09.471 from a chemical industry perspective, people are saying, this is the longest 00:32:09.471 --> 00:32:11.961 down cycle that we've seen and yet. 00:32:12.926 --> 00:32:15.686 People also recognize, as you've talked about, the peak was in 00:32:15.686 --> 00:32:20.906 2021, 2022, when it far exceeded what a normal growth would be. 00:32:20.906 --> 00:32:26.516 Because we had COVID, and the post COVID effects that really energized 00:32:26.516 --> 00:32:28.466 industry, changed up, supply, demand, et 00:32:28.466 --> 00:32:28.916 cetera. 00:32:29.696 --> 00:32:33.176 then people would say, we've settled down Now, again, we're in a bit of 00:32:33.176 --> 00:32:37.446 a tempered market, I think a bit oversupply, again, in certain places. 00:32:37.446 --> 00:32:42.216 But then there's a lot of companies I talk to that say, a pretty good year that 00:32:42.445 --> 00:32:42.745 jeremy-bess_1_07-28-2025_140941: Yeah. 00:32:42.786 --> 00:32:43.296 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: okay. 00:32:44.046 --> 00:32:47.616 so I think it goes along with the same as the consumer sentiment, right? 00:32:47.616 --> 00:32:50.826 Much like you say some, there's a bifurcation perhaps in the market. 00:32:51.036 --> 00:32:53.466 Some are saying, oh, this is horrible. 00:32:53.466 --> 00:32:58.266 And certainly whenever I go to the grocery store and I'm like, how is this? 00:32:59.376 --> 00:33:01.176 I'll tell you the one that really kills me. 00:33:01.896 --> 00:33:06.606 the cost of soda, Coke, Pepsi, what have you. 00:33:06.606 --> 00:33:06.966 I'm like. 00:33:07.716 --> 00:33:08.376 What the heck. 00:33:08.376 --> 00:33:09.246 And I have a, one of my 00:33:09.520 --> 00:33:09.790 jeremy-bess_1_07-28-2025_140941: Yeah, 00:33:09.846 --> 00:33:10.506 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: for KE Dr. 00:33:10.506 --> 00:33:13.506 Pepper, and I'm like, are you kidding me on these prices? 00:33:13.686 --> 00:33:14.886 She's that's what it is. 00:33:14.886 --> 00:33:15.846 I'm like, oh my gosh. 00:33:15.876 --> 00:33:16.266 Okay. 00:33:16.780 --> 00:33:16.960 jeremy-bess_1_07-28-2025_140941: we. 00:33:17.286 --> 00:33:18.366 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: And so I guess to me that's 00:33:18.546 --> 00:33:20.166 one of those, kids drink water. 00:33:20.826 --> 00:33:22.656 that's how much to it. 00:33:23.466 --> 00:33:25.596 But, I think it goes with this whole what we. 00:33:25.866 --> 00:33:26.856 feel and see. 00:33:27.409 --> 00:33:32.239 And think that, people maybe say, oh, I'm cutting my spending and then the real data 00:33:32.239 --> 00:33:34.909 shows I'm not cutting my spending, I'm 00:33:35.198 --> 00:33:35.468 jeremy-bess_1_07-28-2025_140941: Yeah. 00:33:35.839 --> 00:33:37.459 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: and buying and doing. 00:33:37.459 --> 00:33:38.509 And I think that's true. 00:33:38.879 --> 00:33:43.569 So I think separating sentiment from fact, and story from fiction 00:33:43.569 --> 00:33:45.579 is, becomes really critical. 00:33:46.003 --> 00:33:48.388 jeremy-bess_1_07-28-2025_140941: I think a big eye on the consumer will be. 00:33:49.117 --> 00:33:49.957 Not much. 00:33:50.207 --> 00:33:52.417 the second quarter results are coming out. 00:33:53.797 --> 00:33:55.957 I guess depending on when this, which is aired. 00:33:55.957 --> 00:33:58.837 But this week, the week of the 28th of July. 00:33:59.227 --> 00:34:02.257 But if, we, maybe zoom past that one. 00:34:02.257 --> 00:34:05.557 'cause you're gonna see, GDP is likely to come in pretty positive. 00:34:05.587 --> 00:34:08.287 The Atlanta Fed is already suggesting that too. 00:34:08.617 --> 00:34:11.377 But if we think about third quarter, where, oh my gosh, you have this 00:34:11.377 --> 00:34:13.533 kind of flip flopping inventory. 00:34:14.303 --> 00:34:19.283 from, imports and all of this stuff, it could muddy up those results as we 00:34:19.283 --> 00:34:22.463 head in the third quarter, which all of a sudden is gonna increase that whole 00:34:22.463 --> 00:34:24.353 probability of recession happening again. 00:34:24.683 --> 00:34:29.273 But I want everyone to be zooming in on the consumption expenditures, right? 00:34:29.273 --> 00:34:32.123 The US consumer expenditures. 00:34:32.123 --> 00:34:33.923 That's gonna be the important piece to look at. 00:34:34.103 --> 00:34:36.503 As of now, year over year gross, we're still positive. 00:34:36.563 --> 00:34:40.403 The first quarter was still, more positive than, the previous year 00:34:40.403 --> 00:34:41.453 things were looking pretty good. 00:34:41.668 --> 00:34:47.008 I think we just need to focus in on that as reading between some of the, noise 00:34:47.008 --> 00:34:49.018 that we're hearing in, those headlines. 00:34:49.258 --> 00:34:53.668 'Cause again, we might have a lot of that volatility through, through the 00:34:53.668 --> 00:34:55.228 third quarter of this year as well. 00:34:56.449 --> 00:34:56.899 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: Awesome. 00:34:57.589 --> 00:35:01.879 right, so I'm gonna, that maybe your close on that, if, there was 00:35:01.909 --> 00:35:09.169 one thing that as a leader I should be looking at when I'm, gosh. 00:35:09.169 --> 00:35:09.319 And I. 00:35:09.319 --> 00:35:10.909 know you're gonna tell me it's not one thing 'cause it's a 00:35:10.909 --> 00:35:12.259 basket of things, but that's okay. 00:35:12.259 --> 00:35:14.299 But I'm still gonna ask for one thing. 00:35:15.109 --> 00:35:16.489 thing I should be paying attention to. 00:35:16.489 --> 00:35:17.119 What would it be? 00:35:17.593 --> 00:35:18.883 patrick_1_07-28-2025_140941: There's a million things. 00:35:18.943 --> 00:35:23.413 The one thing that I will keep a pretty strong eye on is the bond market. 00:35:23.863 --> 00:35:29.563 Bond market provides a really good, long insight into the risk of the US economy. 00:35:29.563 --> 00:35:32.233 If you're thinking about long-term business planning, what 00:35:32.233 --> 00:35:36.313 the bond market does and says tends to be a core reflection. 00:35:36.313 --> 00:35:40.603 And even when we look at, the policy standpoint, the bond market has 00:35:40.603 --> 00:35:43.094 seemed to, circumvent some of the. 00:35:43.583 --> 00:35:48.443 Trade conversations and, it seems like folks and the government folks and the 00:35:48.443 --> 00:35:50.183 businesses listen to the bond market. 00:35:50.183 --> 00:35:54.023 And so I think we all should be keeping an eye on the, interest rates and 00:35:54.023 --> 00:35:59.813 the yield curves and what that out into the future for 2026 into 2027. 00:36:00.593 --> 00:36:01.133 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: Awesome. 00:36:01.193 --> 00:36:02.483 All right, Jeremy, same for you. 00:36:02.483 --> 00:36:02.993 One thing. 00:36:03.367 --> 00:36:05.137 jeremy-bess_1_07-28-2025_140941: I'm, gonna, I'm gonna piggyback off that and 00:36:05.137 --> 00:36:10.087 say that's, a very similar market or leading market to, to take a peek at. 00:36:10.297 --> 00:36:11.977 I know we yell, what's the fed doing? 00:36:11.977 --> 00:36:13.987 How many interest rate drops are there gonna be? 00:36:13.987 --> 00:36:15.517 And maybe we'll get one this year. 00:36:16.477 --> 00:36:21.585 But actually Bond market's doing and them are in the market saying, Hey, how are 00:36:21.585 --> 00:36:24.315 we thinking about risk in the future? 00:36:24.765 --> 00:36:28.065 Is actually what you know, matters to the consumer a lot more. 00:36:28.065 --> 00:36:29.655 You think about mortgages, they're not tied to the 00:36:29.655 --> 00:36:31.065 federal funds rate necessarily. 00:36:31.065 --> 00:36:33.075 They're more tied to the 10 year bond, right? 00:36:33.075 --> 00:36:34.275 So you want mortgages to drop. 00:36:34.275 --> 00:36:36.285 Don't be looking at what Ron Powell's doing. 00:36:36.495 --> 00:36:38.025 Look at what the bond market's doing. 00:36:38.025 --> 00:36:41.625 'cause we could drop interest rates and not see our 10 year 00:36:41.625 --> 00:36:44.565 debt, our 10 year treasury, rate. 00:36:44.630 --> 00:36:45.980 Drop by as much. 00:36:46.070 --> 00:36:48.530 And that's because maybe the market's saying, hang on, 00:36:48.530 --> 00:36:51.140 the US is still, more risky. 00:36:51.560 --> 00:36:55.040 And then that has a lot to do with many other things, but we're keeping a close 00:36:55.040 --> 00:36:59.450 eye on that because yeah, as of right now, interest rates being more elevated, 00:36:59.600 --> 00:37:01.190 then that's then maybe that's a miss. 00:37:01.190 --> 00:37:04.460 We had from last year being more elevated than we thought. 00:37:04.520 --> 00:37:08.380 This year, could be some downside pressure, not just in 00:37:08.380 --> 00:37:10.120 26, but actually beyond that. 00:37:10.120 --> 00:37:11.980 So that's more of a concern for us. 00:37:12.781 --> 00:37:13.171 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: Awesome. 00:37:13.351 --> 00:37:16.561 Alright, and I'm gonna do my final, question, which I'd like to ask the 00:37:16.561 --> 00:37:21.766 leaders and the guests on the podcast is what advice would you give if you 00:37:21.766 --> 00:37:26.986 look back on your career, if you were advising yourself as you enter the job 00:37:26.986 --> 00:37:31.936 market, or if you're advising a young professional entering the job market 00:37:32.326 --> 00:37:36.436 that frankly maybe wants to be doing what you're doing, but wants to understand 00:37:36.436 --> 00:37:41.446 how to navigate unpredictability that wants to be an advisor to all the 00:37:41.446 --> 00:37:44.221 leaders that you guys are advisors to, what piece of advice would you give? 00:37:45.388 --> 00:37:46.828 patrick_1_07-28-2025_140941: I'll take a stab at that. 00:37:46.828 --> 00:37:49.888 I think, again, there's a million things that we could say, but 00:37:49.888 --> 00:37:52.408 as a young professional, I know I, I went through this myself. 00:37:52.408 --> 00:37:56.278 It's very easy to allow yourself to be tug award and pulled into a million 00:37:56.278 --> 00:38:00.058 different directions and it can seed some doubt in your own analysis. 00:38:00.058 --> 00:38:02.818 Seed some doubt in your own kind of trajectory and what you're 00:38:02.818 --> 00:38:05.698 anticipating, what you're planning for, what your analysis says. 00:38:05.698 --> 00:38:09.808 And so ultimately, just confident in what you're doing. 00:38:10.618 --> 00:38:11.788 not without reason, right? 00:38:11.788 --> 00:38:13.438 Have analysis, be able to back it up. 00:38:13.438 --> 00:38:18.028 But if you have done good work, sound work that you believe has 00:38:18.028 --> 00:38:20.613 been stress tested, and has been reviewed, and all these things. 00:38:21.483 --> 00:38:24.003 Be confident in what you're doing because I think that's how you can 00:38:24.003 --> 00:38:25.983 provide the best sense of clarity. 00:38:26.043 --> 00:38:29.163 Jeremy and I work a lot with business leaders and us two 00:38:29.223 --> 00:38:33.093 basically do the two handed economist thing without real numbers. 00:38:33.093 --> 00:38:35.943 Real data, real analysis or being allowed to be pulled in different directions 00:38:35.943 --> 00:38:37.653 is not advising, it's not helping. 00:38:37.653 --> 00:38:42.723 We need to be clear and direct and good, planning for what we anticipate. 00:38:43.593 --> 00:38:43.863 So that's 00:38:43.918 --> 00:38:44.548 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: I love that. 00:38:44.998 --> 00:38:45.628 Very cool. 00:38:45.688 --> 00:38:46.588 Jeremy, how about you? 00:38:47.252 --> 00:38:48.902 jeremy-bess_1_07-28-2025_140941: It's, actually, it's not just something 00:38:48.902 --> 00:38:50.582 I'd tell, myself back in the day. 00:38:50.582 --> 00:38:54.452 It's maybe something I'd tell myself even just, yesterday we're all still learning. 00:38:54.662 --> 00:38:55.257 I, I've had, I. 00:38:55.532 --> 00:38:57.272 Had good mentors to help me with these things. 00:38:58.022 --> 00:39:00.212 the idea of, celebrating the wins or the highs? 00:39:00.392 --> 00:39:02.012 The highs too highs or the lows? 00:39:02.012 --> 00:39:02.612 Too Lows. 00:39:02.912 --> 00:39:04.142 I am the, latter. 00:39:04.382 --> 00:39:05.282 The, lows are low. 00:39:05.282 --> 00:39:10.112 So when something happens, I think it's the end of the world right. 00:39:10.112 --> 00:39:13.052 There are there, and I know I was optimistic all day, but when I do 00:39:13.052 --> 00:39:15.177 something wrong or, there's just. 00:39:15.682 --> 00:39:19.252 Negativity happening in the work I'm doing or, so on and so forth. 00:39:19.252 --> 00:39:22.732 I think it's, the straw on the camel's back, it's just gonna break everything. 00:39:22.732 --> 00:39:23.872 All of it's gonna fall apart. 00:39:24.412 --> 00:39:27.352 and I don't know how many times, I'm sure we all do this, where we 00:39:27.352 --> 00:39:29.392 think this is the biggest issue ever. 00:39:30.142 --> 00:39:33.022 and then two weeks later, I don't even remember what I was thinking about. 00:39:33.292 --> 00:39:33.592 It's just. 00:39:33.607 --> 00:39:37.957 Things, work themselves out or those lows actually turned into wins. 00:39:38.227 --> 00:39:42.367 Having a little bit of confidence in faith that those things will play out your work. 00:39:43.207 --> 00:39:46.147 ideally you stress test these things, you figured that out. 00:39:46.147 --> 00:39:48.307 You have confidence in that you can work yourself out. 00:39:48.817 --> 00:39:51.307 It makes, sleeping at night better. 00:39:51.307 --> 00:39:55.057 But most importantly, when you're talking about, running a team or a company. 00:39:56.237 --> 00:39:57.707 You're leading by example. 00:39:57.707 --> 00:39:58.637 You're less stressed out. 00:39:58.637 --> 00:40:00.527 You're, you're less reactive. 00:40:01.127 --> 00:40:02.057 and, I think that helps. 00:40:02.057 --> 00:40:07.607 So I think, just trying to, not think the lows are so low is, an important piece. 00:40:08.158 --> 00:40:08.608 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: Awesome. 00:40:08.728 --> 00:40:09.268 I love it. 00:40:09.508 --> 00:40:12.388 Alright guys, Patrick and Jeremy, Thank you. 00:40:12.478 --> 00:40:12.928 Thanks for 00:40:12.977 --> 00:40:13.397 jeremy-bess_1_07-28-2025_140941: Thank you 00:40:14.113 --> 00:40:15.593 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: really appreciate your insights. 00:40:16.487 --> 00:40:16.877 jeremy-bess_1_07-28-2025_140941: Thank you. 00:40:16.877 --> 00:40:19.067 And we'll look forward to seeing you at The Chemical Summit. 00:40:19.097 --> 00:40:19.127 I. 00:40:19.333 --> 00:40:19.483 victoria_1_07-28-2025_130941: I. 00:40:19.483 --> 00:40:20.383 know I can't wait. 00:40:20.383 --> 00:40:21.643 That's gonna be super exciting. 00:40:21.643 --> 00:40:24.253 September 30th and October 1st in Houston. 00:40:24.583 --> 00:40:27.073 And as always, thanks for listening today. 00:40:27.073 --> 00:40:30.763 Keep following, keep sharing, and we will talk with you again soon.