EMD063 - Technicals: The Bounce Off $58

Show Notes

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Tuesday, November 25, 2025 — Technicals. WTI bounced off $58 support. Natural gas is consolidating above $4.50. Let's break down the charts. **WTI Crude Oil - The Technical Picture** WTI crude closed Tuesday at $58.84 per barrel, up 1.3% on the day. The Levels That Matter: Support: $58.00 held. This is the critical floor. Below that, we're looking at $56.00. Resistance: $60.00 is the first level to reclaim. Above that, $61.50 to $62.00 is the zone that needs to break to improve short-term momentum. Moving Averages: The 50-day SMA is at $60.82. WTI is trading below it. This is resistance. The 100-day SMA is below the 200-day SMA. This signals a higher likelihood of continued downside. WTI is trading below both the 50-day and 100-day SMAs. The near-term setup remains bearish. RSI: The RSI is in oversold territory and turning higher. This suggests a potential short-term correction as buyers take advantage of lower prices. However, oversold doesn't mean bullish. It means stretched. A bounce is not a reversal. MACD: The MACD is edging back above the zero line, indicating fading downside pressure. This is a potential early signal of stabilization, but confirmation requires a move above $60. The Bigger Picture: WTI is trading within a descending channel. The longer-term trend is down. The bounce off $58 is a relief rally, not a trend change. **Brent Crude Oil - The Technical Picture** Brent crude closed Tuesday at $63.41 per barrel, up 1.35% on the day. The Setup: Brent is holding above $63, but resistance at $64 to $65 is capping upside. The WTI-Brent spread is approximately $4.57 per barrel, with Brent at a premium. The Trend: Like WTI, Brent is in a downtrend. The bounce is technical, not fundamental. **Natural Gas - The Technical Picture** Natural gas closed Tuesday near $4.535 per MMBtu, consolidating above $4.50. The Levels That Matter: Support: $4.40 is holding. Below that, $4.20 is the next level. Resistance: $4.60 needs to be reclaimed to target $5.00. The Structural Story: LNG export demand remains strong. Feedgas deliveries to LNG facilities surpassed 14 Bcf per day in November, an all-time high. The U.S. now accounts for over 25% of global LNG supply. This is the floor under natural gas prices. Domestic production has reached a new record above 110 Bcf per day, but demand is absorbing it. The EIA Outlook: The EIA projects Henry Hub spot prices to average $3.90 overall in winter 2025-26. They expect prices to average $4.00 in 2026, 16% higher than in 2025. The Technical Picture: Natural gas is consolidating after a 32% rally. This is healthy price action. The uptrend remains intact as long as $4.40 holds. **What It Means** WTI bounced off $58, but the trend is still down. The RSI and MACD are showing early signs of stabilization, but confirmation requires a break above $60. Natural gas is consolidating above $4.50. The structural demand story is intact. The uptrend is alive. This is the decoupling thesis in action. **Catalyst Watch** Wednesday: U.S. crude oil inventory data. EIA report. Thursday: Thanksgiving. U.S. markets closed. December 1st: OPEC+ meeting. **Final Word** WTI at $58 is the line in the sand. A break below opens the door to $56. Natural gas above $4.40 keeps the bull case alive. Target $5.00. Trade the decoupling. For inquiries or introductions to energy capital sources: [e-mail]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. We'll see you Wednesday for Macro Context.

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