Show Notes – Market & News Briefing (16 Sept 2025)
Theme: USD softer into FOMC; crude and gold supported; US–China trade talks continue; Middle East and Eastern Europe remain flashpoints.
FX & Central Banks
- USD extends yesterday’s downside; DXY under pressure ahead of US Retail Sales and start of FOMC two-day meeting.
- Fed Gov. Cook confirmed to attend FOMC after appeals court ruling; Senate narrowly confirms nominee Miran (48–47).
- EUR holds mild gains as ECB officials say rates are “in a good place.”
- GBP steady near 1.36 with focus on UK jobs data and Trump’s UK visit.
- USD/JPY trades lower after US tariffs on Japan were cut; yen benefits.
- AUD/NZD rangebound; RBA notes inflation near target and risks balanced.
- PBoC sets USD/CNY midpoint at 7.1027 vs 7.1159 expected, another sign of currency support.
Commodities
- Crude: Extends gains as Ukrainian strikes hit Russian oil facilities; supply disruption fears support prices.
- Policy: California passes bill allowing thousands of new oil wells annually.
- Gold: Pauses after record high; market focused on FOMC outcome.
- Copper: Slight pullback after Monday’s rally, still tracking global risk tone.
Trade & Tariffs
- Trump undecided on TikTok stake, will speak with Xi this week on a “significant agreement.”
- US opens inclusion window for additional steel and aluminium products under Section 232 tariffs.
- US not expected to reduce tariffs on Scotch whisky ahead of Trump’s UK visit.
Geopolitics
- Middle East:
- Gulf leaders call urgent defence council meeting in Doha after Israeli strike on Qatar; draft communiqué calls for reviewing ties with Israel.
- Trump warns Hamas against using hostages as human shields; urges immediate release.
- US, Canada, France, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, UK leaders coordinate response via phone call.
- US Secretary of State Rubio heads to Qatar seeking to salvage Gaza talks.
- Russia–Ukraine / Europe:
- UK RAF Typhoons to fly air defence missions over Poland under NATO’s eastern sentry mission.
- Poland neutralizes drone over government buildings, detains two Belarusians; boosts cyber budget to EUR 1bn after Russian sabotage attempts.
- Japan pledges to coordinate with G7 on measures to pressure Russia.
- Americas:
- US military conducts second strike against narcoterrorists in SOUTHCOM region.
- Venezuelan President Maduro calls recent US actions “aggression.”
- US reportedly looking to boost its strategic uranium stockpile.
Key Watchpoints Ahead
- UK jobs report, German ZEW survey, US retail sales and industrial production, Canadian CPI.
- Outcome of Trump–Xi discussion on TikTok and trade framework.
- FOMC policy decision and press conference tomorrow — main catalyst for FX and gold.
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