The bellwether 10 year treasury yield fell back below the psychologically significant 4% level last Friday. Although inflation is still high and the Federal Reserve is probably going to raise rates some more, at the long end yields might be peaking out. The higher rates go, the more the economy slows down. The February Consumer Price inflation report will be released next Tuesday and the consensus among economists is for a 6% year/year increase. The Cleveland Federal Reserve’s Center for Inflation Research – which agglomerates high frequency data to produce a real time estimate - looks for 6.2%. But the good news is, the Cleveland Fed then looks for an inflation reading of 5.4% in March, which would take it below the 6% level for the first time since September 2021. Importantly, the year/year comparison in gasoline prices in March should be very favorable. Hot geo-politics and an ageing population are long-term headwinds for the Chinese market, but not what are moving it this year. A V-shaped economic recovery means significantly more upside ahead between now and the end of the year.
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