People imagine a recession is when masses of people are being laid off and so consumer spending isn't just negative, it must be crashing. While those can happen in a downturn, they tend to show up at the end. So, if you're waiting for those to make a determination you'll be way too late. Evidence consistently and conclusively shows hiring not firing creates the recession environment that is marked by a drop in real spending. We have both.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Robert Shimer Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment∗
https://home.uchicago.edu/~shimer/wp/reassess.pdf
Challenger, Gray & Christmas Job Cuts Announced by US-Based Companies Surge in August 2024; Hiring Falls to Lowest YTD Since Challenger Began Tracking in 2005
https://www.challengergray.com/blog/job-cuts-announced-by-us-based-companies-surge-in-august-2024-hiring-falls-to-lowest-ytd-since-challenger-began-tracking-in-2005/
NYT Layoffs Are Few. So Why Are Jobs Harder to Find?
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/12/business/economy/layoffs-jobs-economy.html
https://www.eurodollar.university
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What is Eurodollar University?
Jeff Snider will guide you through the realm of monetary science. Multiple episodes uploaded each week, discussing big news and key current events, the state of markets and what they are telling you, as well as historical summaries and deep background material so that you can understand what’s really going on in this eurodollar’s world.