Show Notes – Daily US Opening Briefing (Sept 4, 2025)
Tariffs & Trade
- China imposed anti-dumping duties on certain US optical fibers, effective today.
- Japan–US in final talks to cut tariffs on Japanese auto imports; deal could take effect within 10–14 days.
- Joint statement and MoU on Japan’s investment package expected.
FX
- USD modestly firmer ahead of ADP, ISM, and jobless claims.
- EUR steady but below 1.17 after soft EU retail sales.
- JPY pressured but supported by auto tariff talks; USD/JPY back above 148.
- GBP slightly firmer after BoE reaffirmed cautious stance on easing.
- AUD and NZD softer despite strong Australian trade surplus.
Commodities
- Oil subdued before OPEC+ meeting; Novak said no current talks on raising output.
- Reports suggest possible phased unwinding of production cuts with minimal impact.
- Rosneft signed deal to supply 2.5m tons of oil to China via Kazakhstan; Power of Siberia pipeline expansion underway.
- Gold eased after record highs; copper and base metals weaker on soft Chinese sentiment.
Geopolitics
- Israel struck Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon; Gaza operation could last up to a year.
- Trump pledged continued US troop presence in Poland and hinted at new phases of Russian oil sanctions.
- Russia rejected Ukraine security guarantees, denied involvement in Von der Leyen’s plane incident.
- Putin met Kim Jong Un in Beijing; leaders reaffirmed strong ties and cooperation.
- Zelensky expected to meet US envoy in Paris as France and partners weigh security guarantees tied to a ceasefire.
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