Our updated macro and market forecasts assess the impact on growth and inflation – and the likely central bank response – under both baseline and adverse scenarios for the Middle East conflict. In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses why the more benign scenario would deliver a negative but manageable shock to the global economy, while a more adverse outcome could tip it into outright recession.
Also on the show, Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory explains why gilts have been the hardest hit among G10 government bonds as tensions have escalated. She explores the sharp shift in expectations for Bank of England policy and the underlying fiscal vulnerabilities fuelling market anxiety – including the risk of a change in government leadership.
Read our latest Global Economic Outlook: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economic-outlook/forecasting-through-fog-war-1
What is The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics?
Capital Economics, a world-leading provider of macroeconomic insight, presents The Weekly Briefing – the show with all you need to know about what's happening in the global economy and markets. From the Fed's next decision to China's slowdown to moves in equities, bonds and FX, each week, our team of economists take apart the big economic and market stories and highlight those issues that investors should be paying more attention to.