The 2024 edition of the AIG Global Trade Series explores the theme of ‘Back to the Future: A New Era of Managed Trade?’
This special episode, recorded live at Chatham House on the eve of their 2024 Global Trade Conference, considers the potential repercussions on trade of the upcoming US and UK elections.
In the UK, current polling suggests that the Labour Party of Sir Keir Starmer is heading for victory whenever the election is called. Across the Atlantic, Joe Biden and Donald Trump are set for the first rematch in an American presidential election for 70 years.
What do the various potential election outcomes mean for British and American trade policy? And what might they mean for global trade?
Panellists:
Creon Butler, Director, Global Economy and Finance Programme, Chatham House
Jennifer Hillman, Professor, IIEL at Georgetown Law; Co-Director of The Center on Inclusive Trade and Development, Georgetown Law
Moderator:
Rem Korteweg, Senior Research Fellow, Clingendael Institute
This podcast episode was recorded on 7 March 2024.
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The views and opinions expressed in this podcast series are those of the speakers and do not reflect the views, policy or position of American International Group Inc, or its subsidiaries or affiliates (AIG). Any content provided by the speakers in this podcase series is their opinion, and is not intended to malign any religion, ethnic group, club, organization, company, individual or group of individuals or anyone or anything. AIG makes no warranty or representations as to the accuracy, completeness, correctness or validity of any information provided during this podcast series, and AIG will not be liable for any errors, inaccuracies or omissions in the information provided during this podcast series or any damages, losses, liabilities, injuries resulting from or arising from the Podcast including your use of the Podcast.
What is AIG Global Trade Series?
Back to the Future: a New Era of Managed Trade?
Globalisation’s next chapter is being written, driven by concerns about supply chain risks. The global trade in goods is increasingly seen through a security prism in capitals around the world and governments are developing new policies to reduce unwanted dependencies, seek new sources of leverage and guarantee supplies. Trade links are being reordered as policymakers scramble to secure access to strategic materials and positions in global value chains. Meanwhile, geopolitical turbulence and climate ambitions are giving rise to industrial policies, sanctions and a growing use of subsidies.
From investment screening to quotas to export controls, policymakers are proposing an increasing number of tools and policies to steer trade and investment flows. But despite worries about protectionism and fragmentation, trade continues as the private sector manages risk by embracing diversification. Elections in the US, EU, Mexico, UK, Indonesia, India and elsewhere may also lead to a reordering of the global politics of trade. Has the global trade system entered an era of managed trade? What will it mean for regional approaches to trade, and what does it mean for multilateralism and the WTO? Ultimately, the main question could be: who is in the driving seat in this brave new world for trade?