In this episode of The Negotiation, host Todd Embley sits down with Kevin Xu, founder of the bilingual newsletter Interconnected, which offers sharp analysis on the intersection of technology, investing, and geopolitics between the United States and China. Kevin has become one of the most thoughtful and trusted voices interpreting Chinese tech trends.
Together, they explore the evolving AI landscape in China, examining how players like DeepSeek and Alibaba are shaping the race, how export controls are impacting development, and why Kevin believes 2025 could be the year of the “AI RIF.” They also unpack China’s open-source culture, cloud strategy, and what Western analysts continue to get wrong about China’s innovation ecosystem.
If you want to understand better the complex forces shaping tech and policy between the world’s two largest economies, this is a must-listen.
🔍 Discussion Points
- What Western analysts often get wrong about China’s tech ecosystem
- China’s strengths and weaknesses in AI vs. the U.S.
- Why Kevin believes 2025 may mark the start of “AI-driven layoffs” (AI RIF)
- DeepSeek’s rise and its open-source implications
- Why “open vs. closed” is a more useful lens than “US vs. China” in the AI race
- Alibaba’s AI and Cloud strategy post-reorganization
- Are U.S. tech export controls helping or hurting long-term AI innovation?
- Potential “second-order” consequences of chip restrictions
- Underrated trends in Chinese tech to watch in 2025
- What investors and operators should be paying attention to next
What is The Negotiation?
Despite being the world’s most potent economic area, Asia can be one of the most challenging regions to navigate and manage well for foreign brands. However, plenty of positive stories exist and more are emerging every day as brands start to see success in engaging and deploying appropriate market growth strategies – with the help of specialists.
The Negotiation is an interview show that showcases those hard-to-find success stories and chats with the incredible leaders behind them, teasing out the nuances and digging into the details that can make market growth in APAC a winning proposition.