Deal Live, Hormuz Open

Monday, June 22, 2026. WEEK 26 OPENS. The deal is done. The Strait of Hormuz is open. Crude is at $75.60-$75.70. CRUDE OIL: WTI July futures trading $75.60-$75.70 (Jun 22), down 2.1-2.2% from prior session. Recent closes: Jun 21 $75.67, Jun 18 $76.60, Jun 17 $76.79, Jun 16 $76.05, Jun 15 $80.75, Jun 12 $84.88, Jun 11 $87.71. Month-to-date down 19%. YTD up 10%. SETUP: Prices snapping lower after earlier volatility. Stronger dollar headwind. Prediction markets trading near $76 with potential upside targets around $80. DEAL IS LIVE: MOU signed remotely ~Jun 17. Trump signed hard copy Jun 17-18 at Versailles. Formal signing Jun 19, Switzerland. 60-day negotiation period initiated. STRAIT OF HORMUZ REOPENED: Commercial shipping toll-free 60 days. US naval blockade lifted. Iran established Persian Gulf Strait Administration for vessel clearance, no fees during 60-day period. SHIPPING SURGE: Ship crossings spiked 25 commercial vessels Jun 18 (highest since mid-April). Oil tankers Saudi-flagged super tankers carrying millions of barrels moved through. De-confliction line set up between parties for safe passage. CONCERNS: De-mining waterway ongoing. Regional frictions Lebanon ceasefire issues. Some contradictory reports Iran closure threats. Trump reference possible US tolls if final deal not reached in 60 days. IMPLICATION: Supply flowing. Geopolitical premium gone. Crude at $75 new reality. STRATEGIC POSITIONING: Short any bounces above $78. Target $70-$72. If crude breaks below $70, next target $65. Fade trade complete. Mean reversion delivered. NATURAL GAS: Most recent EIA report (released Jun 18, covers week ending Jun 12): Total working gas 2,759 Bcf. Net change +73 Bcf injection. YTY 29 Bcf below same week last year. 5-year average 151 Bcf above average 2,608 Bcf. Prior week (ending Jun 5) +108 Bcf injection to 2,686 Bcf. Build slightly below expectations (consensus ~75-82 Bcf). Inventories within 5-year historical range. Henry Hub trading near $3.15-$3.20/MMBtu. NEXT STORAGE REPORT: Jun 25 (week ending Jun 19). SETUP: Storage ample. Injections strong. Accumulation zone intact. $3.05-$3.15 prime entry. Target $4.00+. BOTTOM LINE: Crude—fade trade complete. $75 new reality. Short any bounces above $78. Target $70-$72. Gas—accumulation thesis intact. Storage ample. Accumulate $3.05-$3.15. Target $4.00+. Week 26 opens with supply flowing and geopolitical premium gone. Trade the data, not the headlines.

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