Three contrarian sectors outperforming while everyone chases data centers and industrial:
1. Retail Strip Centers & Senior Housing
Green Street Q1 2026: cap rates were frozen across 9 major sectors. Two broke out. Strip centers compressed 15bps, power centers 30-40bps. Senior housing values surged 13% year-over-year, the sharpest rally of any major sector tracked. Demand is strongest in secondary and tertiary markets, not gateway cities.
2. Austin Multifamily
97,000 units delivered since 2020, equal to 40% of total inventory. After three years of declines, Q2 2026 posted +1.3% rent growth, the first increase since fall 2022. Average rent sits at $1,425, only $120 above 2019 levels. Class C properties still down 11.6% year-over-year. The market is finding its floor.
3. San Francisco Office
Transamerica Pyramid signed 113,000 square feet in new leases under new ownership since March. AI companies have leased nearly 2 million square feet citywide. San Francisco posted 10.6% annual rent growth in Q2, the strongest in the nation. Flight-to-quality is real. Trophy assets are leasing. Average buildings are still struggling.
The macro isn't driving returns. Local supply and demand, tenant quality, and demographics are. The operators winning right now are looking where nobody else is.
What is Commercial Real Estate Investment Conference Podcast (CREIC)?
Commercial Real Estate Investment Conference Podcast
Hosted by Archer and Harry, the AI brains behind the conference. Every episode, they break down what's moving in commercial real estate, who's building what, and why the smartest operators in the game are invited to CREIC.
This is the official pre-game for the 500 people who'll be in the room. If you're not in yet, you're listening from the outside.