WEBVTT

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Welcome everyone to the DC Beer show. We are at DC

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Beer across social media. We'd love to see you DC

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Beer on Instagram, Facebook, and

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blue sky less so on Twitter because it's getting weird over

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there. Mike Stein, what is in your stein? Thanks,

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Jake. I'm drinking VAR from Halfway Crooks. It

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is VAR, and the packaging is wonderful.

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They say on the packaging, beer pivo,

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which is check for unfiltered. So I'm keeping it

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local. I got VAR, which is a Georgia beer, semi local,

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but I got it at the brew shop. Shout out to Beth and Julie who

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are Patreon supporters, and they're members of our

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Patreon. If you don't know, go to patreon.com

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backslash dcbeer. Come see about us. Jordan,

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you traveler, you traveling man on on a

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jet plane. What's going on in your world? What are you drinking?

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Hello. Hello. Yeah. Thank you, Stein. It's been

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a it's been a busy, busy summer. I've been traveling all over.

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Just the latest was was San Diego. Hopefully, you guys get to hear about that

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later. But, because it's been so hot out and because I've missed

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home so much, I'm enjoying some Dennis' Brewing Company

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Bohemian, excuse me, born Bohemian pills. So it's a Czech style

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Pilsner. Shout out to Stein. I know you love all things Czech.

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But, yeah, Jake, what you sipping on tonight,

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sir? So for our resident beer historian,

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Mike Stein, do you know what significance July 23rd

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has in the beer calendar? Is

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it, international beer guy? On

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July 23rd 1635,

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sir Nicholas Hulse filed a patent for a

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smoke free kiln for the drying of

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hops and malt without touching of

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smoke. And so on July 23rd, we are recording this on

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Tuesday, July 23rd, we celebrate Smoke Beer

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Preservation Day. And so in honor of Fox

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Farm, having just come into DC, thank you, NRG.

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Go check them out at the shelter at Sovereign as well. I have the

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cabin, a 5.3%. Smoked Helles Logger, it

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is delightful, I would say. Go get

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you some, Pillsborough, with barbecue.

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You wanna keep it vegetarian or vegan? Grilled halloumi. That's what

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I did earlier today. Big fan. Brandy, what are

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you drinking? Hi, DC Beer fam audience listening. Before I tell you

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what I'm drinking, I wanna say happy early birthday to miss

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Julie Virardi. Her birthday's coming up in

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August, so shout out to Julia Denizens because you

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know I love you guys. I am drinking other

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half, Poetry Snaps. So Poetry Snaps is a rice

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lager. I'm sure you've had Poetry Snaps. They

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really crushed the lagers over there at Other Half.

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But this week, I'm looking forward to

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tasting some Citra beers because it is Citra Week at other

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half, and you can go check out all of those citra

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week beers. I think there's, like, 9, 8 or 9 or 10 beers

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dropping. I want to know what's going on in the beer

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world because next Thursday is National IPA

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Day. We got a bunch of beer, celebratory, random

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holidays, and I'm loving I'm loving the vibes right

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now. So what we got, JB? 1st up,

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Aslan set like a land speed record in the DMV.

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They dropped an Oktoberfest, their fest beer

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on July 6th. Today, 26th.

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Friday today, they're dropping their Scotch ale. So

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Scotch ale in July. Do you think we should take, like, a

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hot poker to it and, extra caramelize those malts

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perhaps at an upcoming Metro Bar events?

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Okay. The wheels are in motion. Alright.

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But in terms of other stuff that's on the radar, the Olympics coming up.

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Jordan, what are you watching for? Well, you know, in my younger days I know

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that's probably funny to hear me say that. But anyway, in my younger days, I

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was a track athlete. So I'm excited for all of the spring

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events, specifically the hurdles as I was a hurdler.

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So I'm looking forward to see what Team USA does. I

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believe, our swim team and our gymnastics team

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will make us all proud, and I hope they do so. So, yeah, I'm just

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just looking forward to all of it, looking forward to kind of the world coming

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together. Hopefully, it's not as crazy as maybe the past 2 weeks

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have been, but hopefully it's it's smooth. How about signed,

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Brian? Are you guys looking forward to anything Olympic related? Oh, for

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sure. Both Bluejacket and Atlas are having

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Olympic specials. So if you're in Navy Yard,

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Atlas, or on Tinney Street for Bluejacket down

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in Southeast, go check out the Olympics there. I had,

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Jake, some of that aforementioned Aslan Festbier.

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And we also saw Atlas' Festbier at

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the drafts and crafts event, and I had a

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can or a sixer of Atlas's Festbier snuck to

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me. And I have to say that it's really interesting that

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with the more Munich, Munich,

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Muenchener Pale Festbier, little hoppy, got a nice kick of

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the hops, whereas the Atlas to me reminds me more of

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Maerten, of that multi special. And

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we just had the beer share, Brandy. Wonderful beer share. Thank you for

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hosting us so graciously. Thanks to Bright Proper Brooklyn for hosting us.

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Brandy, you did a wonderful job there. But I showed some folks the

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Festbier, and they're like, oh, Festbier on what was it?

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July 21st, whatever the date was, that Sunday. And I was

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like, yeah. When was the last time you had an amber lager? And they're like,

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oh, yeah. I guess it was July 2023. And I was like,

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yeah. Amber Lager all year round. Doesn't matter if it's

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now July. Like, I will have it 12 months, 52 weeks out

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of the year. Let's go Amber Lager. Shout out to Right

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Proper. Love you guys. Speaking of the beer share, I'm

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so freaking excited because we had

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4 new people come to our our beer share this past

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weekend. We had Josh come and Juan and his

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wife, and they are now new Patreon members. They had such

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a great time. They signed up for Patreon. Shout out to Juan

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for bringing those banging ass chicken skewers. Those were great.

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We had some good beer as always, and, it was just

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so nice to see new faces. And and I want you guys

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to know that if you think you want to come

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and you might feel nervous, I understand, and I respect that, but

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you end up having fun. And I'm really thankful. So shout

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out to Josh and Juan, for being our new

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Patreon members. And, we look forward to seeing you guys next

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month at Denizen's. Speaking of, shout out to

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Denizen's for hosting our August beer share, which is going to

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be on August 11th, which is gonna be a crazy busy weekend.

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That's Saturday in August is our women's brew culture club. We're

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back. We took July off, so we're back with Alyssa at Lyon Hall.

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So you know what? Even though July is my birthday month, I'm ready for

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August, y'all. I'm just ready to move I'm just ready to move on.

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Well said. It is Leo Virgo

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season that we are getting into. It's barrel and flow. It's

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women's brew culture club at Lyon Hall. It's the DC

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Beer share at Denizen's. One other event that

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may not have been mentioned, and if it was, just to reiterate, international beer

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day will be next Friday. So it's a number of events happening in

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and around DC. So check out DCBureau dotcom for our

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events and all the updates there, as well as some awesome stories coming

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out. We also have the Kolschfest at Bluejacket

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on July 28th from 12 to 3. Banner. Yeah.

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So that's happening the day after tomorrow, July 28th.

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There is going to be some action further in the week at

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Churchkey on, July 31st, a week

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of drinking in 1 night, cycle brewing at Churchkey.

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Cycle out of Florida is bringing some of their favorite

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stouts, imperial stouts, and barley wines. Not one, but 2 different

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barley wines. So, yeah, check out Churchkey on

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Wednesday, the last day of July. No. No.

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No. No. We wanna skip that and go straight to the 1st day

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of August when at Shelter, Bierstadt

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Lagerhaus. Oh. Shelter. Every you know, get your

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get your slow pour on, a lovely Dunkel, a lovely Helles as

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well. They also know everything. Yep. And

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see who they are. Ashley Carter. Yeah. Technical

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editor of Modern Lager Beer. Yes. Should you enjoy Modern

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Lager Beer by Jack and Joe, thank Ashley Carter

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of Bierstadt Lagerhaus, and then go try her beers.

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Yeah. But I wanna get as far away from lager as possible for a

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minute. Jordan, you were just in San Diego

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where I guess there's lager, but mostly what I think of is

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I think of IPA. What really stood out in your

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travels over there? Well, I don't know if you know if I have enough

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time. Yeah. It's it's it's really an awesome place. I mean, it was chill. Like,

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weather was perfect as as one would expect, but, I'll just list

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off the places I was able to hit, and then I'll close out

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quickly with the one that really stood out. But I was able to go to

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Catch. Catch is a, they brew beer, but they're mostly known for their food

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and their fish tacos, which are excellent by the way. But I tried all of

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the beers that I could there, and actually their crispy boys came out

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really well. Caught Amplified Brewing by the

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water. I went to their Pacific Beach location. So just kinda had some beers and,

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you know, enjoyed the boardwalk. Of course, I started

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with North Park. I mean, no one's got us there.

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When I walked in, 2 of the guys in the back had other half shirts.

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I was like, I was like, I feel like I'm I feel like I haven't

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left, the East Coast yet. But yeah. So North Park was really great. They had

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some collabs coming out with a burial down in North

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Carolina and had a couple of other collapse that they that they were

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dropping. Went to Fall Brewing just briefly, just kinda just poking my head

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in there. I was trying to hit as many as possible, but I

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finished with Pure, which was my favorite. And

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if not just for like the quality of beer, like, specifically the

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North Park location, like it was just beautiful. Like

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I got there around, like, 3 in the afternoon,

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sent around, like, 2 or 3 hours. And it was just it was just chill.

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Like, it was just the music was excellent. Like, staff was really nice. Obviously,

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the beers are great. So I would say Pure probably they they took the cake.

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So it was a great trip. Definitely, folks, if you haven't been out there, I

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would recommend it. Not just a great place for beer, but all things

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holistic. I think we should have our next DC Beer retreat in San Diego.

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But, yeah, up next is, Barrel and Flow. And I hope to bring back some

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awesome tales of awesome people and awesome beer with

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my lovely co attendee, Amber, because it's

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gonna be she and I. You guys right now is Paunchy, but she and I

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will be holding her down for the the DC Beer fair. Our

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guest is also well traveled. I know him best

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from his work at Schlafly, but he's no stranger to DC.

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He's at American University. He's been at Heavy Seas before that.

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Please welcome the show, Dan Kopman. Stein, take it away. Thanks,

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Jake. I'm here with Dan Kopman, who is professional

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lecturer at American University's Kogod School of Business and

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a senior policy adviser to the Worldwide Brewing Alliance

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who specializes in studying global shifts in the alcohol

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industry. Dan, welcome to The DC Beer Show. Thank you

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for having me. Happy to be here. It's wonderful to have you

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here. So I wanna let our

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listeners know, Dan, you most recently

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before academia worked as CEO at Heavy Seas.

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But before that, you worked in Missouri and in England.

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Would our listeners, who, of course, are global citizens and have lived and

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traveled all over the world, would they have had your beer or beer you brewed

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in, say, London from 1983 to 1991 or,

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say, Saint Louis from 1991 to 2017?

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Yes. That's the short answer. Yes. So if you lived in

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London in the 19 eighties, if you lived in London today, you

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would find hundreds of Young's Pubs in London, and

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you would be familiar with Young's Original,

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Young's Special, Young's Winter Warmer, those beers.

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Many Young's pubs, the pubs are very popular. And then in Saint

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Louis, yes, I was the cofounder of Schlafly Beer. So if

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you had found yourself even at the airport just changing planes

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in the Southwest terminal or the American Airlines terminal, we

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had pubs in those in those terminals. So you would have you would have had

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a a pint of Schlafly parallel there even today. Yes. That's

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wonderful. So our listeners will now know. But I wanna get a

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little more granular. As we mentioned, you're at

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American University's Kogod School of Business, and I had heard you

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discussing on another podcast about some of

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the experiential learning projects for the students at AU.

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Can you tell us a little bit about some of those projects and the exciting

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work you're doing at Kogod? So the course that

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I helped coordinate, I coordinate the capstone,

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experiential learning project. The capstone class is a

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strategy class in which all of our seniors take that as

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one of their last classes. And part of that is a consulting

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project. So we work with different companies, big

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and small, some in the DC area, some others around the world.

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And we identify problems that those

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companies are experiencing, and then the students spend

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a semester working on those problems

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as consultants. So students move from

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being students to consultants through the process. So it's a

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great learning experience for them, and we hope to, at the end

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of the day, provide actionable advice

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for the client. So for example, we did do a

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a project with Right Proper Brewing Company in DC.

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And if there are other breweries in DC that are interested

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in the capstone consulting project, then by all means,

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send me an email. It's dankopman@american.edu. You

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know? And experiential learning is a is a big part

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of the business school experience for

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both undergraduate and graduates. I would strongly encourage folks to

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be in touch. I'm wondering, you talk a good bit about early

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mover advantage. When you were in Schlafly in Saint Louis,

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there was some early mover advantage, and the same with heavy seas.

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In Maryland, they had an IPA early sort of in the IPA wave

250
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that's still cresting. I'm wondering either locally

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or even globally, because I know you work a lot in the inter in

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international spaces and other countries on other continents, The early

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mover advantage I see applied to locally in DC brewers

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like DC Brau who put a seltzer, a canned seltzer on the market in

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2019. They just put DC's first can

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NA beer on the market, which is a big deal as we've seen the

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proliferation of NA beer. But can you tell us a little bit about

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early mover advantage? And if you can, either look into your

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crystal ball and and see what's coming down the pike or or talk a little

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bit about some of those early mover advantages you've seen in your experiential

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time. So early mover advantage is

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intuitively exactly what it is. You're you're one of the you're

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fortunate. You're lucky. You're smart. One of those things to be an

264
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entrepreneur in a market where you're

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moving into a segment, a category

266
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at a time when others really aren't. And so you have

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that 1st mover or early mover advantage.

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It doesn't it doesn't guarantee success.

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It it provides a temporary, what I call, competitive

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advantage for a company that does it well.

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The question is then is how do you sustain that competitive

272
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advantage? That's the harder part. That's the much harder

273
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part. And that early mover advantage

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can last a very short period of time, or it can last

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a long time. So if you think back to the craft

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beer business before the term craft beer existed,

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there were brewers like ourselves, Schlafly in Saint Louis, one of the

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first couple 100 craft breweries in the United States. We had an

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early mover advantage, especially in our local market. Now our

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local market was unique because it was the home of Anheuser Busch.

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So we had that early mover advantage for a

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very long time, say, 1991 all the

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way until 2008. We were pretty much on our

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own, and so that gave us a really

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significant competitive advantage in the craft

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market for quite a long period of time. But

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I would say that once the competitors appeared, it got

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hard fast. Right? And I remember back

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to it was, I think, a beer institute meeting in Saint Louis, and

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Gary Fish, the founder of Deschutes, one of the founders of Deschutes,

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was in Saint Louis. And we were talking about this issue, and

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he he was saying, so what do you do what are you gonna do when

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there's others? And I said, well, there aren't others at the moment. This was

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well before 2008. And so it's really a David and Goliath

295
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type approach that we took to having that advantage.

296
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And then with the sale of Anheuser Busch to INBEV,

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things changed where there were now other breweries in Saint Louis. But Gary

298
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got a real taste of this early on because in Oregon, there were so many

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more brewers in addition to Deschutes that started

300
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throughout the 19 nineties. There was a bit of a shakeout, if you remember.

301
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So that's early mover advantage. Early mover advantage is often

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00:18:43.145 --> 00:18:46.765
often coincides with early adopters.

303
00:18:47.065 --> 00:18:49.885
So when I talk about early adopters, those are the consumers

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within an innovation cycle that are your

305
00:18:54.010 --> 00:18:57.770
first consumers. Right? I used to describe it

306
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as I know every drinker because they all came into our pub because,

307
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honestly, we only sold beer over our own bar for the 1st 2 years

308
00:19:05.605 --> 00:19:08.184
in Saint Louis, 91 to roughly 93.

309
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Because, rightly, for for all the very good reasons, most bars in

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Saint Louis didn't wanna sell a non Anise Busch beer. The brewery was

311
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too good to most bars in Saint Louis to to sort

312
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of, you know, rock that boat. So it often

313
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is associated with that, but, again, the the easy

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part is getting a competitive advantage by having early mover

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00:19:31.640 --> 00:19:35.355
advantages. The hard part is keeping it. That's very well said. Easy

316
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to get, but it can be lonely at the innovation or

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progressing forward top of the mountain, and then there's no guarantee.

318
00:19:42.980 --> 00:19:46.360
So, yeah, I'm wondering about that in terms of,

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00:19:46.980 --> 00:19:50.745
THC or cannabis based beverages because I've

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talked to some brewers. You know, they feel like, okay. They've done well with

321
00:19:54.505 --> 00:19:58.160
hard seltzer or making a product, but, of course, they don't

322
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wanna break the law. They're, judicious brewers,

323
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so they're waiting on legislature effectively. Legislator.

324
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Yeah. And this is a big what if question, so Yeah. Pre

325
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preemptive apology. But the question you know, we've seen Athletic Brewing

326
00:20:13.420 --> 00:20:17.260
Company in the NA space, and I'm kind of drawing a parallel between NA

327
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and potentially THC bev. We've seen athletic go from a

328
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few 1000 barrels to, I don't know, maybe 200,000. They were at a

329
00:20:24.685 --> 00:20:28.125
170,000 barrels year before last. Could we

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see 200,000 barrels of THC seltzer,

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Beyond beer, bev, whatever, if if the legislative

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landscape goes the way some people think it will? To

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step back a second, with Beyond beer, you have to separate

334
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different products into different segments because they're not

335
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all the same. So think about it from a consumer

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standpoint and think about the concept of something

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that we teach students about of cognitive dissonance.

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What I mean by that is in layman's

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terms where your brain gets twisted. Right?

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So if you're talking about an innovation such as seltzer

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or RTD spirits, these are 4 to 5%

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00:21:14.600 --> 00:21:18.215
alcohol beverage 4 to 4 to 5% ABV

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beverage alcohol products. So from an ethanol

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standpoint, there's no dissonance for the consumer. There's just a

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slightly different flavor. So I think you can group all of those

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RTDs, whether you call it seltzer or

347
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spear based RTDs, you can be somewhat agnostic as to where the

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ethanol comes from. Not entirely because it does

349
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matter, And there is there are elements of, you

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know, you know, how are companies marketing these

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RTDs? Are they marketing them to try and get them

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with spirits to to to buy the full strength

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bottles, or are they marketing them as completely separate brands,

354
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like Truly or brands like that? So there's not a lot of

355
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dissonance there. It's a different flavor. It doesn't taste like beer necessarily,

356
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but it's 4 to 5% ABB.

357
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THC beverages, that's gonna be a segment of the THC market.

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So you would need to think about it in that in that context. Now

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will it it expand the market? Will a beverage

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version of 5 milligrams of THC

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expand the market of THC consumers?

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I don't know. So think I would think about that differently.

363
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Nonalcoholic beer presents a completely different

364
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challenge for consumers because there's a lot of cognitive dissonance.

365
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Right? So you walk into a bar, and

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you may not want to drink ethanol that night for whatever

367
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reason. Or you've had a beer, and you don't necessarily want another one.

368
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Right? And you see nonalcoholic beer now on the

369
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menu, and it's the same price, or it's more, or it's a

370
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little bit less. And there's a dissonance there. There's a

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sort of, oh, hold on. What am I doing? Why am I doing this? I

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need to get my head around. So the number of consumers that

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actually are consuming nonalcoholic beer, the number of early adopters

374
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is pretty small. So it's a completely different type of

375
00:23:18.795 --> 00:23:22.335
innovation, and it's gonna have a completely different

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growth trajectory as a result. Meaning, like,

377
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craft beer back in the nineties where we knew every drinker.

378
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Athletic, I'm not saying they know every consumer of their product

379
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or Heineken 0 0, but it's different.

380
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And the number of consumers is different.

381
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And so while athletic has that early mover advantage in the United

382
00:23:45.990 --> 00:23:49.289
States, they definitely would not have that in Europe.

383
00:23:50.335 --> 00:23:54.095
So the the most important thing for your audience to

384
00:23:54.095 --> 00:23:57.795
know about nonalcoholic beer in the US

385
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is that the number of adopters in the US is the

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lowest in any region of the world. So the

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penetration of nonalcoholic beer into the US

388
00:24:09.225 --> 00:24:12.665
is quite low. It has started to

389
00:24:12.665 --> 00:24:16.490
grow pretty dramatically, but it's well

390
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behind. So, for example, there's 50 +1000000

391
00:24:20.169 --> 00:24:23.605
barrels in US terms of nonalcoholic

392
00:24:23.904 --> 00:24:27.424
beers sold globally. 25,000,000 of that half of that is

393
00:24:27.424 --> 00:24:31.039
Europe. The next largest market is the Middle East and

394
00:24:31.039 --> 00:24:34.720
and Africa. After that is Latin

395
00:24:34.720 --> 00:24:38.505
America and then Asia Pacific, and then finally you get

396
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to North America. So the global

397
00:24:42.425 --> 00:24:45.725
rate of growth for nonalcoholic beer is in the high single digits.

398
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I'd expect that to continue. We're at about 2 a

399
00:24:50.149 --> 00:24:53.830
half percent of global beer production, but the, you know, the US is gonna

400
00:24:53.830 --> 00:24:57.545
be, I think, a big market, but we need to go from

401
00:24:57.545 --> 00:25:01.225
early adopters to the early majority. When we go to the

402
00:25:01.225 --> 00:25:04.930
early majority of consumers, then we're gonna see even

403
00:25:04.930 --> 00:25:08.310
higher rates of growth. So the to your

404
00:25:08.450 --> 00:25:12.225
original question about early mover advantage, we're still there. The

405
00:25:12.225 --> 00:25:15.765
companies that are investing now in

406
00:25:15.825 --> 00:25:19.585
creating the market are going to have that

407
00:25:19.585 --> 00:25:22.880
early mover advantage. The question is, will they be able

408
00:25:23.980 --> 00:25:27.500
to sustain that competitive advantage? It doesn't always work that

409
00:25:27.500 --> 00:25:31.205
way. If you think about smartphones, the iPhone was not the

410
00:25:31.205 --> 00:25:34.505
1st smartphone. Right? The iPhone was launched

411
00:25:34.965 --> 00:25:38.745
into a late early majority or almost,

412
00:25:39.320 --> 00:25:43.080
you know, a late majority of consumers. And that's

413
00:25:43.080 --> 00:25:46.675
why the volume was so big for the iPhone. So, you know, the

414
00:25:46.675 --> 00:25:50.435
global brewers are all committed to the market. And when I say global, it's the

415
00:25:50.435 --> 00:25:54.195
ones we're familiar with, including the Japanese brewers. They're really

416
00:25:54.195 --> 00:25:57.769
committed to the market. So I think it's

417
00:25:57.769 --> 00:26:01.370
important if it's something that a DC

418
00:26:01.370 --> 00:26:05.005
brewer feels they it it can they

419
00:26:05.005 --> 00:26:08.625
they can be effective, in building a market

420
00:26:08.765 --> 00:26:12.289
long term, then go for it. But it's gonna be

421
00:26:12.429 --> 00:26:16.270
pretty the volumes are gonna be small right now, especially if

422
00:26:16.270 --> 00:26:19.890
you're only in one market. That's gonna be the big challenge

423
00:26:20.534 --> 00:26:24.375
for local brewers getting into NA beer. The volumes

424
00:26:24.375 --> 00:26:27.910
will be small because the number of consumers is small right now. I really

425
00:26:27.910 --> 00:26:31.610
appreciate you putting the US into the global context

426
00:26:31.669 --> 00:26:35.049
for how many NA beer drinkers we have

427
00:26:35.615 --> 00:26:39.295
from from a global market perspective, but then also the idea

428
00:26:39.295 --> 00:26:42.975
that there could be great growth, but it will take

429
00:26:42.975 --> 00:26:46.510
time and it will not be, oh, let's say, it won't be easy

430
00:26:46.970 --> 00:26:50.490
as as all good things worth pursuing are not easy. But it's

431
00:26:50.490 --> 00:26:53.130
interesting because I think, you know, I

432
00:26:54.384 --> 00:26:57.825
aside from asking you to look into your crystal ball, I I now wanna look

433
00:26:57.825 --> 00:27:01.365
back on the past because in DC, we have an interesting

434
00:27:01.504 --> 00:27:04.080
story with the barrels sold,

435
00:27:04.940 --> 00:27:08.380
specifically, how much beer was sold in

436
00:27:08.380 --> 00:27:12.025
2018 2019. We're talking about over

437
00:27:12.025 --> 00:27:15.865
400,000 barrels. These are this is from the mayor's office. I have a

438
00:27:15.865 --> 00:27:19.610
distributor friend who got a report from Bowser's office, and he was

439
00:27:19.610 --> 00:27:23.310
letting me know there's about 420,000 barrels in both 2018

440
00:27:23.610 --> 00:27:27.345
and 2019. Obviously, 2020 with the COVID

441
00:27:27.345 --> 00:27:31.045
19 global pandemic, we're down to 303,000 barrels.

442
00:27:31.265 --> 00:27:35.020
And in 21, a slight increase, 324,000 barrels.

443
00:27:35.020 --> 00:27:38.800
But at the same time, out of those 300,000 plus barrels,

444
00:27:39.100 --> 00:27:42.940
DC only brews about, you know, between 3,040,000 barrels

445
00:27:42.940 --> 00:27:46.775
annually. So how would you recommend DC

446
00:27:46.775 --> 00:27:50.615
Brewers grow their market, and and what

447
00:27:50.615 --> 00:27:54.179
do you see what do you see in in the way of trends and where

448
00:27:54.179 --> 00:27:57.059
that might go? I think this is really I'm sorry. I was looking at interesting.

449
00:27:57.059 --> 00:28:00.740
I was looking at some data this morning on small brewers. The World

450
00:28:00.740 --> 00:28:04.405
Brewing Alliance, we have a a UN beer club in the same way that, say,

451
00:28:04.405 --> 00:28:07.845
the Brewers Association has a small brewers caucus in

452
00:28:07.845 --> 00:28:11.340
DC. We have a a beer club up in New

453
00:28:11.340 --> 00:28:14.860
York, made up of the missions, you know, the the missions to the

454
00:28:14.860 --> 00:28:18.654
UN. So it it was interesting. If I

455
00:28:18.654 --> 00:28:22.014
look at global and I'll come back to DC. I'll I'll bring this

456
00:28:22.014 --> 00:28:25.669
back. If I look at global data on

457
00:28:25.669 --> 00:28:29.429
small brewers versus the large brewers, 15 there's

458
00:28:29.429 --> 00:28:32.970
15 brewers in the world that individually have 1

459
00:28:33.215 --> 00:28:36.575
more than 1% of the global beer

460
00:28:36.575 --> 00:28:39.934
volume. Right? And and they make up

461
00:28:39.934 --> 00:28:43.480
about, call it, 70, 75 percent of global beer

462
00:28:43.480 --> 00:28:47.320
volume. So there's still almost 30% of global

463
00:28:47.320 --> 00:28:51.125
beer volume is made up by smaller brewers. If

464
00:28:51.125 --> 00:28:54.425
I look at the US data, I think it's 13%

465
00:28:55.605 --> 00:28:59.330
of US volume is craft. Right? So if we think of

466
00:28:59.330 --> 00:29:03.170
them in there roughly, that's roughly the same number. So you

467
00:29:03.170 --> 00:29:07.005
cited, I think, about 10% of DC volume is made up by

468
00:29:07.005 --> 00:29:10.845
smaller brewers. So that's that's consistent with

469
00:29:10.845 --> 00:29:14.510
the national average of, say, 13%. So the you know, that

470
00:29:14.590 --> 00:29:18.110
so so if the global data and the country

471
00:29:18.110 --> 00:29:21.010
data and the local data are all

472
00:29:21.615 --> 00:29:25.375
roughly aligned, then that's that's interesting.

473
00:29:25.375 --> 00:29:29.215
And then that that numb those those global numbers haven't moved a lot

474
00:29:29.215 --> 00:29:32.960
in the past 4 or 5 years. Right? It's been been in that,

475
00:29:33.100 --> 00:29:36.700
you know, 10 to 15% of beer volume is

476
00:29:36.700 --> 00:29:40.495
smaller brewers. You know, one of the things that I look at really

477
00:29:40.495 --> 00:29:44.015
carefully these days is demographic data. So I look at

478
00:29:44.015 --> 00:29:47.550
this, especially for a course I teach

479
00:29:47.550 --> 00:29:51.230
at at AU on global entrepreneurship. And what I

480
00:29:51.230 --> 00:29:54.965
find is what I find interesting is the demographic data

481
00:29:54.965 --> 00:29:58.405
on the US versus, say, Europe. The US

482
00:29:58.405 --> 00:30:01.970
population right now has the largest

483
00:30:01.970 --> 00:30:05.590
number of legal foreign born nationals

484
00:30:05.809 --> 00:30:09.490
since the late 1800. 24% of the US

485
00:30:09.490 --> 00:30:13.095
population legal was not born in the

486
00:30:13.095 --> 00:30:16.635
US. The last time the number was that high was the late 1800,

487
00:30:17.255 --> 00:30:20.770
and we can and many people can trace their American

488
00:30:20.830 --> 00:30:24.510
heritage back to that that time. Right? So that's quite

489
00:30:24.510 --> 00:30:28.095
interesting. So then you you sort of say, okay. Where are they coming from? Right?

490
00:30:29.195 --> 00:30:32.955
Well, yes. A lot have been coming from Mexico and Latin America

491
00:30:32.955 --> 00:30:36.539
over the past 20 years. And is there a

492
00:30:36.539 --> 00:30:40.320
correlation between that and the growth of Mexican imports?

493
00:30:40.539 --> 00:30:44.355
Probably. I haven't run the regression, but my guess is there's a

494
00:30:44.355 --> 00:30:47.335
correlation there. But if you look at where they're coming from now,

495
00:30:48.515 --> 00:30:52.035
the in equal numbers, they're coming from China, Mexico, and

496
00:30:52.035 --> 00:30:55.539
India. And so I think that is really interesting.

497
00:30:56.799 --> 00:30:59.780
The US the average age in the US is 36,

498
00:31:00.559 --> 00:31:04.245
37. Average age in Europe is 47. Immigration

499
00:31:05.025 --> 00:31:08.245
is is holding that average age down in the US.

500
00:31:08.705 --> 00:31:12.380
That's good for brewers. Right? Younger drinkers,

501
00:31:13.159 --> 00:31:16.220
more consumption. We've seen a lot of lost

502
00:31:16.519 --> 00:31:19.934
volume of ethanol consumption, beer, wine, and spirits in

503
00:31:19.934 --> 00:31:23.455
Europe. I have to think that a lot of that is related to

504
00:31:23.455 --> 00:31:27.050
the to the increasing average age.

505
00:31:27.210 --> 00:31:30.970
So if I'm a local brewer, if you think

506
00:31:30.970 --> 00:31:34.570
back, you know, 20 years, things have really

507
00:31:34.570 --> 00:31:38.225
changed in terms of the consumer base, you know, the total

508
00:31:38.225 --> 00:31:41.985
consumer base. You know, what's my potential market? And I

509
00:31:41.985 --> 00:31:45.424
think brewers need to take a step back. Even local brewers need to take a

510
00:31:45.424 --> 00:31:49.260
step back and say, what's my market, and who am I

511
00:31:49.260 --> 00:31:52.400
selling to? Because when you think about

512
00:31:52.940 --> 00:31:56.060
the total population of DC and you think about

513
00:31:56.685 --> 00:32:00.445
you know, look at the demographics of DC and compare

514
00:32:00.445 --> 00:32:04.260
it back to 20 years ago or 10 years ago even. So when

515
00:32:04.260 --> 00:32:07.920
a brewer like DC Brauer or Wright Proper or others started,

516
00:32:08.460 --> 00:32:11.820
I have a sneaking suspicion sneaky suspicion that the

517
00:32:11.820 --> 00:32:15.245
demographic picture looked very different. And

518
00:32:15.245 --> 00:32:19.005
so maybe the volumes haven't changed in terms of the amount of beer

519
00:32:19.005 --> 00:32:22.670
being sold total, but who's buying it is different.

520
00:32:23.230 --> 00:32:26.910
And certain things are growing and certain things aren't. And I

521
00:32:26.910 --> 00:32:30.530
think that speaks to maybe what Bart Watson

522
00:32:30.990 --> 00:32:34.725
or Bob Pease and others at the Brewers Association, people locally have been

523
00:32:34.725 --> 00:32:38.345
saying, that, you know, we need to broaden

524
00:32:39.445 --> 00:32:43.030
the appeal of beer from small

525
00:32:43.030 --> 00:32:46.870
brewers, beverages from small brewers, and we need to

526
00:32:46.870 --> 00:32:50.575
consider who our consumers are. So I think I would start

527
00:32:50.575 --> 00:32:54.414
there. Very well said, Dan. Dan, thank you so much for joining us

528
00:32:54.414 --> 00:32:58.095
on the DC Beer Show, and we look forward to seeing you around Friendship

529
00:32:58.095 --> 00:33:01.690
Heights. Yes. You know, if anyone has questions again about the

530
00:33:01.690 --> 00:33:05.370
programs at American University, especially our you know, not

531
00:33:05.370 --> 00:33:09.135
just our the academic programs, but the consulting projects and

532
00:33:09.135 --> 00:33:12.355
our center for entrepreneurship, the Velourich Center For Entrepreneurship,

533
00:33:12.975 --> 00:33:15.720
please do not hesitate to email me. Again, it's dankopman@american.edu.

534
00:33:17.620 --> 00:33:21.220
Wonderful. Thanks so much, Dan. Thank you, Mike. Thank you, Dan.

535
00:33:21.220 --> 00:33:24.995
American University, everyone. Go Eagles. Alright, everybody.

536
00:33:25.055 --> 00:33:28.575
Be well. You're watching the Olympics. Again, I think Bluejacket and

537
00:33:28.575 --> 00:33:32.350
Atlas, probably the 2 best places to be in terms of beer

538
00:33:32.350 --> 00:33:35.970
centric spots. We are at DCB across social media.

539
00:33:36.030 --> 00:33:39.113
Brandy, take us out. Cheers, everybody. Come to the next beer

540
00:33:43.193 --> 00:33:43.693
share.