Geographic Feature: States of North Carolina and South Carolina

Thursday, October 15, 2026. NORTH CAROLINA & SOUTH CAROLINA ENERGY MARKETS. Both states have ZERO indigenous crude oil and natural gas production. Net importers all fossil fuels. CRUDE OIL: NC/SC no production/reserves. ~125 exploratory wells NC historically, no commercial success. Offshore Atlantic OCS potential exists (BOEM 2026: 4.50 Bbo, 34.35 Tcf nat gas Atlantic-wide; South Atlantic ~1 Tcf range). Manteo Prospect (off Cape Hatteras) estimated 5 Tcf dry gas historically; exploration cancelled. No active federal leases since 2000 Manteo relinquishment. State opposition to Atlantic OCS leasing. Zero refineries; both depend on interstate pipelines (Colonial, Plantation) and marine imports. Vulnerable East Coast tight supplies. Onshore shale potential (NC Triassic) ~1.66 Tcf, minimal development. NATURAL GAS: Zero domestic production. Supplies via interstate pipelines (Transco, Appalachian Marcellus/Utica). Key expansions: Transco Southside Reliability Enhancement (SRE) entered full service +423,400 Dth/d NC/VA. Transco Southeast Supply Enhancement (SSE) FERC Jan 2026, construction underway, partial late Q4 2026, full Q4 2027, +1.6M Dth/d capacity Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) interconnect. Duke contracted 1M Dth/d. Mountain Valley Pipeline Southgate extension: Construction underway VA/NC, target mid-2028 (litigation risk). Duke contracted 250k Dth/d. No underground storage; peak LNG peak-shaving. Mild 2026-27 heating (HDD ~3,150, 3% below 10-yr avg). ELECTRICITY: NC generation mix: natural gas ~36%, nuclear ~27%, coal ~12%, solar ~9%, hydro/other ~16%. SC: nuclear ~52%, natural gas ~23%, coal ~17%, low-carbon overall ~60%. NC 2024 total gas consumption 690 Bcf (electric power 431 Bcf/62%, industrial 118, residential 69, commercial 68). SC coal capacity ~5,159 MW (Winyah 1,260 MW, Cross 2,452 MW). SC natural gas capacity ~3,271 MW combined cycle, ~2,630 MW combustion turbines. DUKE ENERGY CAROLINAS 2026 RESOURCE PLAN: 30% winter peak growth target through 2041. Solar 18.5 GW. Natural gas 14 GW (8.2 GW combined cycle, 5.8 GW combustion turbines). Battery storage 13 GW. Nuclear ~4.5 GW new. Specific gas projects: Anderson SC 1.4 GW combined-cycle approved 2026. Davie/Davidson NC advancing. SANTEE COOPER SC PLAN: Load growth unprecedented. Coal retirements delayed (Winyah end-2034 or later). Gas replacements: Canadys ~2,200 MW joint (online early 2030s, Santee share powers ~250k homes), ~870 MW Santee-dedicated gas by 2035. Natural gas near-term reliability resource. Pipeline expansions (Transco SSE 1M Dth/d, MVP Southgate 250k Dth/d) support new gas generation. LOAD GROWTH DRIVERS: Population, data centers, manufacturing, coal retirements. Duke peak burn existing fleet ~980k Dth/d, exceeding current FT (firm transportation), driving new procurement. Winter 2026-27: Mild HDD ~3,150 (3% below), reduces heating demand, supports nat gas price moderation. Fuel costs Carolinas subject to national crude/gas volatility (Brent 2026 avg $96, Q4 $105; HH 2026 avg $3.48). Manufacturing cost exposure ~30% of firms. SUMMARY: NC/SC zero indigenous oil/gas. Zero refineries. Offshore Atlantic potential (1 Tcf gas South Atlantic, BOEM 2026) undeveloped (no leases since 2000, opposition OCS). Natural gas infrastructure major expansion: Transco SRE (full service), SSE (partial late 2026/full 2027 +1.6M Dth/d), MVP Southgate (construction, mid-2028, +250k Dth/d). Electricity dominated by imports interstate transmission. NC: gas 36%, nuclear 27%, coal 12%, solar 9%. SC: nuclear 52%, gas 23%, coal 17%, low-carbon 60%. Duke targets 30% winter peak growth: solar 18.5 GW, gas 14 GW, storage 13 GW, nuclear 4.5 GW by 2041. Santee Cooper: Canadys 2,200 MW joint, 870 MW dedicated gas. Specific approved: Anderson SC 1.4 GW combined-cycle. Load drivers: population, data centers, manufacturing, coal retirements. Winter 2026-27 mild (HDD 3,150, 3% below), supports gas price moderation vs. baseline. Energy policy dominated electricity reliability, renewable integration, storage, natural gas transition fuel. No material upstream oil/gas/refining. States function energy consumers, infrastructure hubs importing all fossil fuels national/global markets.

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