Show Notes — FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics
Top Lines
- U.S. government shutdown continues; September non-farm payrolls will not be released. Markets pivot to ISM Services and central-bank remarks.
- U.S. President says he’s considering taxpayer rebates of $1,000–$2,000 funded by tariff revenue; separate reports point to cash support for farmers using existing resources.
- China launches a trade-barrier probe into Mexico’s tariffs, signaling potential countermeasures.
FX
- Dollar softer in a tight range as the data blackout shifts focus to ISM Services and Fed speakers.
- Euro modestly firmer after mixed but minor PMI revisions.
- Sterling slightly higher despite a downward revision to UK services PMI, with corporates seen deferring decisions until after the Autumn budget.
- Yen underperforms after BoJ Governor Ueda re-emphasizes the need to maintain an accommodative stance; weekend LDP leadership vote in view.
- AUD and NZD edge up alongside firm base metals.
Commodities
- Crude oil’s brief bounce on Gaza-plan headlines faded; prices drift in thin newsflow.
- Gold pauses after recent swings, holding near recent ranges ahead of ISM Services.
- Copper extends gains toward ~$10,850/t; base metals broadly supported by a softer dollar and supply considerations.
Trade/Tariffs
- White House exploring tariff-funded consumer rebates; farm support under discussion through existing accounts with additional tariff-linked aid contemplated.
- Beijing opens a trade-barrier investigation into Mexico’s tariff regime and vows measures to defend Chinese firms’ interests.
Geopolitics
- Middle East: Hamas tells mediators it needs more time and seeks changes to elements of the U.S. Gaza plan.
- Europe: Munich Airport briefly closed overnight after drone sightings; later reopened.
- Russia-Ukraine: President Putin warns seizure of vessels would heighten risk of sea confrontations; says potential U.S. Tomahawk deliveries to Ukraine would be dangerous and escalate tensions without changing the battlefield.
What to Watch Next
- U.S.: Final Composite PMI (Sep), ISM Services (Sep); Fed speakers (Williams, Jefferson).
- Europe/UK: ECB’s Schnabel; BoE’s Bailey.
- Policy: Any updates on U.S. shutdown duration, tariff-rebate discussions, and farmer support programs.
- Geopolitics: Signals from Gaza mediation and any escalation around Russia-Ukraine maritime risks.
What is The Financial Source Podcast?
Your daily dose of sentiment updates in the European and US sessions and critical risk event previews so you stay up to date with what's moving the market right now.