EIA Inventory Report: Draws Continue

Wednesday, June 24, 2026. EIA CRUDE OIL INVENTORY REPORT RELEASED TODAY. Week ending June 19. Released June 24 at 10:30 AM ET. MOST RECENT DATA: EIA report released Jun 17 for week ending Jun 12: Commercial crude fell 8.3M barrels to 418.2M barrels (6% below 5-year average). 10th consecutive weekly draw. Total crude incl. SPR at multi-decade lows. Refinery crude inputs 17.2M bpd (+230K b/d WoW). Refinery utilization 96.7% operable capacity. Cushing stocks down 1.6M barrels. Gasoline stocks down 0.9M barrels. Distillate stocks up 1.0M barrels. API DATA: Week ending Jun 19, released Jun 23: Crude fell 0.77M barrels (much smaller than prior week's 8.33M). Significant slowdown in draw rate. MARKET EXPECTATIONS: EIA report for week ending Jun 19 market expects ~-5.1M barrel draw. MARKET CONTEXT: Brent averaging ~$105/bbl Jun-Jul (elevated). WTI following similar dynamics. Tight supply environment. Geopolitical supply disruptions Iran-related, Strait of Hormuz. NATURAL GAS UPDATE: Most recent EIA report released Jun 18 for week ending Jun 12: Total stocks 2,759 Bcf. Net change +73 Bcf injection. Year-ago 29 Bcf lower (-1.0%) vs Jun 12, 2025 (2,788 Bcf). 5-year average 151 Bcf higher (+5.8%) vs 2021-2025 avg (2,608 Bcf). Within 5-year historical range. REGIONAL STOCKS: East 532, Midwest 638, Mountain 226, Pacific 309, South Central 1,053 Bcf. REGIONAL INJECTIONS: East +18, Midwest +28, Mountain +4, Pacific +5, South Central +16 Bcf. SETUP: 73 Bcf build matches 5-year average for same week, below last year's 97 Bcf. Henry Hub spot ~$3.19-$3.32/MMBtu. NEXT STORAGE REPORT: Jun 25 for week ending Jun 19. STRATEGIC POSITIONING: Crude inventory draws supporting lower prices. Tight supply but geopolitical premium fading. Short any bounces above $78. Target $70-$72. Gas storage building. Injections strong. Accumulation zone intact. $3.05-$3.15 prime entry. Target $4.00+. BOTTOM LINE: Crude fade trade complete. Geopolitical premium gone. Inventory draws supporting lower prices. Gas storage ample. Injections strong. Accumulation thesis intact. Trade the data, not the headlines.

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