Doha Talks Resume

Monday, June 29, 2026. WEEK 27 OPENS. WTI crude oil opened at $70.50. Recent session range high $70.97, low $69.32. Prior close Jun 26 $69.23. Latest quotes ~$69.95-$70.21 (up slightly from Friday close). CRUDE OIL SETUP: Support at $67.93. Resistance at $71.84. Fade trade complete. Mean reversion delivered. Crude broken below $70 last week. This week watch for Hormuz escalation risk. Talks resume Doha Jun 30. NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub at ~$3.28/MMBtu (down ~0.49%). Jun 22 EIA spot $3.16/MMBtu. CME Henry Hub futures $3.28-$3.31 range. EIA projections averages ~$3.34-$3.60/MMBtu for 2026 periods. Storage building. Injections strong. Accumulation zone intact. US-IRAN NEGOTIATIONS: Mid-June MOU signed ~Jun 17. Formal signing ~Jun 19 Geneva, Switzerland. 60-day negotiation window for nuclear issues, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access. Late Jun Switzerland talks ~Jun 19-21 Bürgenstock, Switzerland (near Geneva, Lucerne). Described positive and constructive. Progress high-level oversight committee, Hormuz communications line, IAEA inspectors' access discussed. Some follow-ups called off amid regional flare-ups (Lebanon, Hezbollah). JUNE 29 UPDATES: US and Iran agreed to halt attacks. Plans for renewed talks Doha, Qatar, Jun 30. Focus Strait and broader MOU implementation. STRAIT OF HORMUZ SHIPPING: Fragile recovery post-MOU. Traffic picking up modestly (some LNG and VLCC movements). Well below pre-conflict norms (~138 vessels/day pre-war vs single digits-low tens recently). Hampered by risks, insurance, recent incidents. Post-MOU efforts UN maritime agency coordination, freeing trapped ships, safer routes near Oman. Recent escalation (late Jun 2026) attacks on commercial vessels/cargo ships. US retaliatory strikes on Iran. Iran signaling intent to resume transit fees after 60-day suspension. Iran asserts control over waterway. Ongoing mine risks, blockades, incidents suppressing traffic. Some Iranian oil exports resuming in limited volumes. SETUP: Crude support at $67.93, resistance at $71.84. Watch Doha talks Jun 30. Hormuz escalation risk remains. Gas $3.28/MMBtu. Accumulation zone intact. $3.05-$3.15 prime entry. Target $4.00+. WEEK 27 THESIS: Crude fade trade complete, mean reversion delivered, geopolitical premium fading but Hormuz risk remains. Short any bounces above $72. Target $65-$67. Gas storage building, injections strong, accumulation intact. Target $4.00+. Trade the data, not the headlines.

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