Show Notes – Daily European Opening Briefing (Sept 4, 2025)
Tariffs & Trade
- Trump floated idea tariffs could eventually replace income tax.
- US warned countries not to back UN shipping emissions deal or risk tariffs.
- Mexico–US set up high-level groups to tackle cartels, tunnels, financial flows, and smuggling.
- China imposed anti-dumping duties on US optical fibers.
- Germany’s Chancellor Merz to host national steel summit, citing tariff pressure on industry.
FX
- Dollar steady after JOLTS showed unemployed now exceed vacancies for first time since 2021.
- Fed’s Waller reiterated support for September cut; Kashkari sees soft landing and room for rates to ease.
- EUR stuck below 1.17, GBP paused after rebound, JPY flat near 148.
- Antipodeans muted despite Australian trade surplus.
Commodities
- Oil subdued as OPEC+ mulls output hike at Sunday meeting.
- US inventories: crude +0.6m bbl vs exp -2m; gasoline -4.6m bbl.
- Rosneft to supply 2.5m tons of oil to China via Kazakhstan.
- Nigeria’s Dangote refinery gasoline unit offline for 2 weeks.
- Gold eased after hitting record highs earlier; copper pressured by weak Chinese demand.
Geopolitics
- Hamas signaled readiness for Gaza hostage deal; Israel struck Hezbollah in Lebanon.
- Reports suggest US Secretary of State Rubio won’t block potential West Bank annexations.
- Trump: US troops to stay in Poland, more possible if requested; to speak with Zelensky soon.
- Russia rejected Ukraine security guarantees; Macron said coalition ready to back Ukraine if ceasefire.
- Kim Jong Un met Putin in Beijing, pledged continued support; leaders reaffirmed close ties.
- UK Chancellor Reeves dismissed £50bn “black hole” forecasts, stuck to fiscal rules ahead of budget.
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